***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Dodododododo.

Dododododoodododododo.

Doha oil producers meeting ends without an agreement

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/17/doha-oil-producers-meeting-ends-without-an-agreement.html

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAAH.

Nice job manipulating the fucking market for the past few months though. Bunch of bullshitters, and I'm not talking about OPEC members -- they pretty much all came out and said there was no deal for weeks. "Business" "media" didn't give a fuck.

 

[Charmonium]

You win some, you lose some.

I thought I heard there was some sort of agreement between the Saudis and . . . I'm not sure who else. OPEC maybe? But since Iran didn't show, I guess there wasn't much point.

 

[Charmonium]

BTW, I've been meaning to ask this for a while and it never seems to come up but does anyone know WTF they're talking about when they say producers are trying to win market share? It's a commodity, so why would you care about market share. IOW, if you raise your price a few cents over market, people are just going to go somewhere else anyway, right?

 

[Imp]

I have heard that certain Middle East countries have contracts with specific countries to provide oil. For example, Iran supposedly sells oil to China at a discount.

My guess is that it's a combination of business schmoozing and having more product available to schmooze with, maybe while squeezing out higher cost producers who can't compete.


Edit: And there's some massive labor strike in Kuwait of all places. Oil production down to 1.1 M from ~2.8 M.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...perating-after-it-says-oil-workers-walked-out

 

[Charmonium]

Oh, ok. So "market share" really means "fuck Canada and the US." Got it. Maybe we should raise the price on the military equipment we sell them. I'm sure Russia and China would be more than happy to sell them some crappy hardware. And it's not like either of them would ever play politics with their military security. {sigh}

edit: I'm used to the euphemisms and code words but no one had let me in on that one.

 

[FelixDeCat]

39.42 -2.37 -5.68%

Everybody knew this was going to happen, it was no big unexpected surprise. Buy the dip after the dust settles.

 

[JEDI]

39.42 -2.37 -5.68%

Everybody knew this was going to happen, it was no big unexpected surprise. Buy the dip after the dust settles.

at opening this sun evening, it was ~$39.00.
now $39.53 and climbing

drop drop drop! (please)

 

[Imp]

Looking at WTI, it's down to $38.20 or down over 5% -- think this is the May contract, turnover is on the 21st?

Still early though because Asia (the parts that matter...) is about 12 hours ahead, markets haven't opened yet. On the other hand, North America markets like to give the finger to Asia's markets often.

P.S. Wonder if this will cause banks to call some loans on oil companies. Wave of optimism since late-January now should be gone.

Also, can't wait until May: something about Australia losing its AAA credit rating depending on government budget details. If they get downgraded, mortgage rates are supposedly at risk of rising. Game. Over.

 

[JEDI]

looking at wti, it's down to $38.20 or down over 5% -- think this is the may contract, turnover is on the 21st?

all contracts expire 3rd fri of the month so apr 22.

edit:
Crude Oil contract rolled over on Apr 17, 2016 to the Jun 16 contract

huh

 

[Imp]

...I went looking at commodity prices. Cocoa is currently about $3000/metric ton. Sounds like I should move to Peru and open a farm or two.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I like turtles.

 

[Imp]

Something interesting from Australia... A real estate company, apparently, started trading on their stock market. It started at $2.10 only 4 months back, it's supposedly trading around $0.96 today. Something about a trading halt late last week.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-...p-25pc-on-sudden-real-estate-downturn/7334274

IIRC, Australia is dependent on trading houses to each other and commodities. The latter died a while ago, the former appears to be off the cliff but still flapping its arms. Their banks may also be very exposed to real estate.

 

[JEDI]

omg.. what happened to the huge drop in oil during premarket?
it was like -5% (aka +15% dwti triple short).

wtf recovery starting at 11am?!

and why does the oil futures contract expire tomorrow (tues)?
thought ALL futures expires every 3rd fri of the month???

sell dwti today before contango hits?

 

[sm625]

omg.. what happened to the huge drop in oil during premarket?
it was like -5% (aka +15% dwti triple short).

wtf recovery starting at 11am?!

and why does the oil futures contract expire tomorrow (tues)?
thought ALL futures expires every 3rd fri of the month???

sell dwti today before contango hits?

Are you saying you didnt sell at the open today? Greedy arent we?

 

[Imp]

omg.. what happened to the huge drop in oil during premarket?
it was like -5% (aka +15% dwti triple short).

wtf recovery starting at 11am?!

lololol... If anyone still had faith in the market, it should be gone today. Saw the full reversal coming this morning when charts switched over to American markets.

Months of speculation about a deal to freeze production at record levels proves to be completely wrong. How does the market react? By rallying. WTI (May) is currently down 1.4%, but resource heavy TSX index in Canada is up. Suncor, tar sands producer, is up. CAD is up. S&P 500 is up.

 

[JEDI]

Are you saying you didnt sell at the open today? Greedy arent we?

yup
you saying you saw the reversal coming?? how? what were the warning signs?

will hold till tomorrow and sell b4 futures expire.

lololol... If anyone still had faith in the market, it should be gone today. Saw the full reversal coming this morning when charts switched over to American markets.

Months of speculation about a deal to freeze production at record levels proves to be completely wrong. How does the market react? By rallying. WTI (May) is currently down 1.4%, but resource heavy TSX index in Canada is up. Suncor, tar sands producer, is up. CAD is up. S&P 500 is up.

I think the reversal was because of the Kuwait strike which cut their production in 1/2.
but Kuwait just issued a statement saying they'll be back at 100% b4 the end of the week.


'Once Kuwaiti production stabilizes, a number of analysts worry that crude prices could resume their descent back toward $30 a barrel.'

hm.. that makes me want to hold onto dwti but I know I need to sell b4 contracts expire to avoid contango.
guess i'll buy again on weds and hopefully I don't get gapped

 

[Imp]

Meh, I'm not even going to try to speculate on what's going on anymore. As far as I'm concerned, the entire market is one giant crock of shit right now. I'm just going to sit on USD and hope it's the most stable currency when the shit hits the fan.

 

[Charmonium]

IBM up almost 2% after hours. PE of only 10.

I put in a couple leap call bets on this about a year ago and still have a year to go because of the success of their Watson system which is being incorporated into everything from cooking and mixology to cancer therapy to robo advisers.

 

[ponyo]

Meh, I'm not even going to try to speculate on what's going on anymore. As far as I'm concerned, the entire market is one giant crock of shit right now. I'm just going to sit on USD and hope it's the most stable currency when the shit hits the fan.

So you're down like 14% this year? You have bigger balls than me placing your entire faith on USD.

 

[JEDI]

3 upward spikes (highlighted by ovals):
what candlesticks formation is this (oil)?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Meh, I'm not even going to try to speculate on what's going on anymore. As far as I'm concerned, the entire market is one giant crock of shit right now. I'm just going to sit on USD and hope it's the most stable currency when the shit hits the fan.

There were many times I threw my hands up in frustration this year too. Admittedly I do trade too much and lose money because of it.

In order to cut down on trading I recently turned off margin on my account. So that means no shorting stocks or doing options spreads. If I decide to buy a stock I have to hold it for 4 days before I can sell again. It really makes you think long and hard before pulling the trigger with that in mind!

The other benefit to disabling margin is ... no margin interest!! Finally, the day trading rules to not apply to cash accounts. You can trade options, write covered calls or short cash puts (like my CHK play mentioned previously), and the cash will be available for use the very next day!

Another thing Ive considered doing is turning off the internet on my phone. Its a nice distraction at work while you have some slack moments or are stressed and need to relax. But it also leads to excessive speculation which is usually not profitable (for me at least).

 

[KB]

IBM up almost 2% after hours. PE of only 10.

I put in a couple leap call bets on this about a year ago and still have a year to go because of the success of their Watson system which is being incorporated into everything from cooking and mixology to cancer therapy to robo advisers.

That turned around quickly. IBM is now down ~4%. I was about to pull the trigger on IBM two months ago when it was around $118, but it quickly jumped and I missed it. I may still buy IBM, but I would need a 4+% yield to hold it. My opinion is IBM doesn't turn around until after our next recession and a return to growth in IT spending. I keep waiting for Watson to take off, but haven't seen it.

 

[Charmonium]

That turned around quickly. IBM is now down ~4%. I was about to pull the trigger on IBM two months ago when it was around $118, but it quickly jumped and I missed it. I may still buy IBM, but I would need a 4+% yield to hold it. My opinion is IBM doesn't turn around until after our next recession and a return to growth in IT spending. I keep waiting for Watson to take off, but haven't seen it.

The few analyst comments I've heard would tend to agree with you. IOW despite investing $1B into this new product division, it's probably going to be years before Watson really takes off. Plus you have other people also working on deep learning software.

Personally, I think IBM is light years ahead of everybody else but even if that's true, it could still be years before we widespread adoption of this technology. So this was no doubt a gamble on my part. But I think that there is such a profound need for this kind of data analysis software that it's going to grow much faster than anyone realizes. Of course it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong, especially on an issue of timing.

 

[JEDI]

didn't ibm turn from a hardware company to a generic consulting company?
w/a pe=10, I'm assuming that didn't go over very well w/investors?

 

[JEDI]

oil formed a double top at $42 overnite.
it should drop and form a double bottom @ $39 sometime in the near future.

then it's anyone's guess.
support = go back up and form a triple top @ $41
or breakout nose dive

edit:
or have the US $ drop like a rock and have oil overcome the double top today