***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Now a Saudi paper is saying the Saudi oil minister won't cut oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/13/saudi-oil-minister-rules-out-crude-output-cut-report.html

Surprise!

 

[Miramonti]

Geeeezzz.... I've done that dozens of times -- moving my limit price due to partial fills and price shifting. Never even thought about there being an extra trade charge.

That's where IB saves a lot, by only having a $1 base charge, so there is no afterthought about changing an order as much as one wants, and there is no 'penalty' for only getting partial fills for an order.

Some fascinating volatility in DWTI this morning...111.50 to 116 to 110.30 to...? in just minutes. I'm not sure if the oil market is on the same rollercoaster.

I'm kicking myself for not wanting to hold BOOT over the weekend and further, as it went to 8 today. I've always been more comfortable finding intraday trades than holding positions. This has to change.

 

[StrangerGuy]

Didn't you hear? China is in full recovery mode. Their trade data for March just came out... something about an 11% year over year gain and imports fell. Commodities and oil +10000%!

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/first-quarter-economy-looks-bleaker-by-the-day.html
US Q1 2016 GDP growth estimated at +0.1%, lol @ the number of downgrades from previous estimates.

 

[JEDI]

Woot. A "report" said that Russia and the Saudis agreed on an output freeze, so oil surged 5%.

That's right. A "report." Just like the last dozen "reports."

shorted oil at $42/barrel

drop drop drop! (pleaase)

Now a Saudi paper is saying the Saudi oil minister won't cut oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/13/saudi-oil-minister-rules-out-crude-output-cut-report.html

Surprise!

YES!

drop drop drop! (pleaase)

 

[holden j caufield]

What's the best way to get every stock listed on the major exchanges sorted by price? Do any of the US brokers allow you to trade stocks in Canada or Europe, Asia etc.

How is interactive brokers support, Etrade Fidelity etc have a office down the street from my work if I want to solve an issue they do it instantly over the phone or in person. Sometimes my end of day orders aren't filled and stuck in "pending cancel" that means I can't move them in after hours and they are in limbo. I call them, wait and minute and they make it "verified cancel" and I can trade it.

Someone told me they had over x amount and they don't get charged for trades. I think they just buy mutual funds etf stuff and not individual stocks.

 

[Miramonti]

What's the best way to get every stock listed on the major exchanges sorted by price? Do any of the US brokers allow you to trade stocks in Canada or Europe, Asia etc.

How is interactive brokers support, Etrade Fidelity etc have a office down the street from my work if I want to solve an issue they do it instantly over the phone or in person. Sometimes my end of day orders aren't filled and stuck in "pending cancel" that means I can't move them in after hours and they are in limbo. I call them, wait and minute and they make it "verified cancel" and I can trade it.

Someone told me they had over x amount and they don't get charged for trades. I think they just buy mutual funds etf stuff and not individual stocks.

For US stock lists, click on Download on the right. To get prices for everything, that is a tough one (altho I can do easily because I have a trading software subscription as well as a datafeed subscription.)

However these lists include everything...A shares...B shares...warrants...etc. so they require cleaning up. Also, volume and volatility for each stock are factors in filtering, because it doesn't help to watch a stock that doesn't trade or one that trades but doesn't move, so that requires evaluating backdata.

With IB, you can basically trade anything worldwide, and there are different places to get stock lists for given countries/exchanges. I've traded stocks in Australia, Japan, London, and there are various nuances in different countries/exchanges that one learns in doing so. But I personally I found there is plenty to do in US stocks and it can be a waste of time to try to monitor/trade exchanges around the clock. IOW, if you're very successful trading US stocks, go bigger, instead of branching out to new exchanges/countries that you won't have the same access to information/breaking news etc as you have here.

Regarding IB customer support, it can have more than desired hold times, but they are usually highly qualified and amazing. "Pending Cancel"? Geez, I'm having flashbacks about those terrifying miseries. I have never had that with IB, everything is instantaneous and realtime. One time my cat swatted a hot key on my keyboard, and entered an order that was way out of range, yet filled before the market opened. It was instantly a $900 loss against where the market closed the previous day. I called IB, explained the situation, and they procured a full cancellation of the trade with the seller.

No such thing as free trades as far as I know, regardless of account size. (Perhaps there are scaled discounts for huge players.)

 

[sm625]

deleted

 

[holden j caufield]

For US stock lists, click on Download on the right. To get prices for everything, that is a tough one (altho I can do easily because I have a trading software subscription as well as a datafeed subscription.)

However these lists include everything...A shares...B shares...warrants...etc. so they require cleaning up. Also, volume and volatility for each stock are factors in filtering, because it doesn't help to watch a stock that doesn't trade or one that trades but doesn't move, so that requires evaluating backdata.

With IB, you can basically trade anything worldwide, and there are different places to get stock lists for given countries/exchanges. I've traded stocks in Australia, Japan, London, and there are various nuances in different countries/exchanges that one learns in doing so. But I personally I found there is plenty to do in US stocks and it can be a waste of time to try to monitor/trade exchanges around the clock. IOW, if you're very successful trading US stocks, go bigger, instead of branching out to new exchanges/countries that you won't have the same access to information/breaking news etc as you have here.

Regarding IB customer support, it can have more than desired hold times, but they are usually highly qualified and amazing. "Pending Cancel"? Geez, I'm having flashbacks about those terrifying miseries. I have never had that with IB, everything is instantaneous and realtime. One time my cat swatted a hot key on my keyboard, and entered an order that was way out of range, yet filled before the market opened. It was instantly a $900 loss against where the market closed the previous day. I called IB, explained the situation, and they procured a full cancellation of the trade with the seller.

No such thing as free trades as far as I know, regardless of account size. (Perhaps there are scaled discounts for huge players.)

Thanks for taking the time, this was very helpful, I've definitely had my fair share of fat finger mistakes.

Was hoping my brokerage can provide me with CSV file of all stocks like they did for all my trades last year then I can put and manage that data a lot easier.

I've started to manage my stuff more closely and I've had a script which would let me know when certain stocks I was watching would hit certain thresholds in certain time frames. And then I'd sell them for $300-$400 profit - commissions. I've probably done it a few dozen times this year for small potatoes but I find it fun and a learning experience.

 

[Miramonti]

Thanks for taking the time, this was very helpful, I've definitely had my fair share of fat finger mistakes.

Was hoping my brokerage can provide me with CSV file of all stocks like they did for all my trades last year then I can put and manage that data a lot easier.

I've started to manage my stuff more closely and I've had a script which would let me know when certain stocks I was watching would hit certain thresholds in certain time frames. And then I'd sell them for $300-$400 profit - commissions. I've probably done it a few dozen times this year for small potatoes but I find it fun and a learning experience.

If you do a search for 'stock screeners' you may find what you need and then create watchlists with your brokerage. To name a couple, Yahoo and Marketwatch have one, but I'm not sure if you can conveniently download or copy/paste the results or not.

 

[Imp]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/first-quarter-economy-looks-bleaker-by-the-day.html
US Q1 2016 GDP growth estimated at +0.1%, lol @ the number of downgrades from previous estimates.

Shut up! Shut up! Stock market rally 4everBBQ!!!!!!!!!! Nooooooo fundamentals and facts. RALLY 4vr!!!!!! GO GO 8 YEAR BULL MARKET! China economic numbers are 100% accurate and real!

 

[Imp]

No way... NO WAY!

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/04/13/two-thirds-of-millennials-expect-to-afford-a-home.html

Nearly half of Toronto first-timers anticipate making a withdrawal of about 12 per cent of the total price for a down payment, from the bank of mom and dad. That means their own contribution would be about 4 per cent or about $18,000.

No way that people are borrowing against their bubble-inflated homes to buy more homes or lend to others to do the same. It's not like this combined with low interest rates and lax lending standards are propping house prices up here in Canada.

 

[JEDI]

shorted oil at $42/barrel

drop drop drop! (pleaase)

oil dropped 1% today and is down another 1% Premarket for tomorrow

drop drop drop! (pleaase)

 

[Imp]

Just wait for Monday. The Doha meeting is Sunday, apparently. Maybe they'll freeze production and oil will go to $60, then the near bankrupt frackers will start their rigs back up. This time will be better though because all the storage complexes are operationally full so oil will go to $100/barrel.

 

[Miramonti]

I'm not one to use traditional technical analysis methods, but if there is a such thing as a double-top, there is a such thing as a double-bottom, and oil may have experienced it. If so (on 1/20 and 2/10), oil is well and gone with the <=$32 range for a long time.

 

[Charmonium]

Just wait for Monday. The Doha meeting is Sunday, apparently. Maybe they'll freeze production and oil will go to $60, then the near bankrupt frackers will start their rigs back up. This time will be better though because all the storage complexes are operationally full so oil will go to $100/barrel.

If they're having a meeting then they've already come to an agreement. You don't have a high profile event like this and not be prepared to announce something.

Now it may be that what they announce will be bigger than what they've already agreed to, but some sort of cut back on production is almost certainly going to be announced. Whether or not it will be enough to have a significant impact is up for debate. But if all the market wants is a hollow gesture, they'll get at least that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Covered my Chesapeake puts from $1.7 at .95 cents. Sold AVXL calls for a loss.

QQQs hit $111!

Remember when those idiots at goldman were urging people to short the market on Monday and everyone did because of that and "the falling dollar" bull crap? The QQQs were 108.50. If you were buying puts per goldman, you lost. Always do the opposite of what goldman says.

Right now Im all cash.

Id like to see Chesapeake go back down to $4-$5 so I can short puts again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh and oil is not going back to $100 (unless most frackers go bankrupt or eventually sell to a handful of majors who can sell it drip by drip......making us pay $4 per gallon again).

F that.

 

[Imp]

If they're having a meeting then they've already come to an agreement. You don't have a high profile event like this and not be prepared to announce something.

I don't know about that... They've had numerous meetings in the past year. This one is just hyped up because rumors started about a freeze back in January/February when WTI hit ~$25.

Realistically, an actual production freeze/cut now would make no sense. The Saudis have been burning their reserves for over a year now to hit high-cost producers (e.g. shale and tar sands). They are within months of winning -- wave of defaults is supposedly coming this year and JPM just bumped up their oil/gas loss reserves again. Why not wait a few more months? The Saudis still have years of reserves, IIRC.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't know about that... They've had numerous meetings in the past year. This one is just hyped up because rumors started about a freeze back in January/February when WTI hit ~$25.

Realistically, an actual production freeze/cut now would make no sense. The Saudis have been burning their reserves for over a year now to hit high-cost producers (e.g. shale and tar sands). They are within months of winning -- wave of defaults is supposedly coming this year and JPM just bumped up their oil/gas loss reserves again. Why not wait a few more months? The Saudis still have years of reserves, IIRC.

I suspect that the economic factors are a relatively minor consideration. The fact that oil is less than half what it was at it's high has caused all manner of political turmoil, especially for the smaller producers. It's in everyone's best interest at this point to try to get the price back up.

The Saudis made a grave miscalculation when they decided to open the spigot. They may have bankrupted a handful of US producers but all that's done is buy them some time. However they've paid dearly for it. So much so that they've had to consider selling some of their interest in Aramco.

And as soon as the price goes back up, there will be no shortage of investors looking to get back into the oil patch.

So the Saudis are looking for the sweet spot. The price that low enough that it doesn't make shale look like a good investment but high enough that they can afford their domestic programs.

 

[Imp]

So the Saudis are looking for the sweet spot. The price that low enough that it doesn't make shale look like a good investment but high enough that they can afford their domestic programs.

If I recall correctly, the Saudis, Iran, and Iraq all need oil prices over $80 to balance their budgets -- there's a chart I linked to somewhere in this or last year's stock thread. One needs like $100+.

Shale's break-even is now in the $40s or $50s thanks to tech and desperation (e.g. people working 15 hour days). I think U.S. oil production peaked last spring at 9.7 M per day, it's now around 8.98 M per day -- and we still have a 1.5 M to 2 M production surplus per day. Iran will slowly but surely add 1 M/day, at least, over the next years. Iraq added like 0.2 M/day over the past few months?

I don't know how they will get the math to work. There's no sweet spot for price where everyone wins. Any higher than $50, shale probably starts again and market gets flooded. World is in an economic funk so demand won't suddenly explode.

Alternatively, keep prices sub-$40, bankrupt competitors, create structural supply deficit, be last man standing and profit like crazy.

 

[Charmonium]

Well, as you noted, shale's break even is partly a function of all of the fire sales currently happening as the result of desperation.

But breakevens are all over the map. For example, even as wells were being shuttered last year, total production was still increasing. So there's really no "standard" break even point.

As for balancing their budget, that ship sailed a long time ago. Right now I think it's a more a matter of mitigating the damage than being able to declare victory. And the only way to do that is to agree to some level of production cuts.

 

[Imp]

............Found some charts/graphics showing breakeven oil prices for numerous OPEC members. Holy shit, I thought they were lower.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/oil-prices-and-budgetsthe-opec-countries-most-at-risk.html

http://graphics.wsj.com/lists/opec-meeting

Other than tiny Qatar and Kuwait, looks like everyone needs $80+. Saudis and Venezuela need $100+.

Maybe we're giving too much credit to the Saudis and it really is out of their control at this point.

 

[Charmonium]

Those are some surprising numbers. It's natural though to think of economic break even and fiscal break even as being 2 sides of the same coin, but apparently not.

 

[Imp]

Well, good luck and hold onto your butts...

The net long position has passed the previous peak of 572 million barrels, set in May 2015, and is closing in on the record of 626 million, set in June 2014, when Islamic State fighters were racing across northern Iraq.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-hedgefunds-kemp-idUSKCN0WV240

Nothing beats some good old commodities speculation. Monday is going to be so fun...

 

[Miramonti]

Perhaps the only thing stopping oil from rallying next week would be a big rally the rest of this week. [/edit: n/m, I have no clue nor dog in the fight at this point]

Seagate and WD taking a bath today after Seagate slashes outlook.