***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

US production down 16K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Just realized they use the same link for weekly updates.

So, unless I misread, from the week ending 4/1/2016 compared to week before:
- Crude oil -4.9 million barrels
- Gasoline +1.4 million
- Distillates +1.8 million
- Total stocks +1.1 million

Net Imports for Crude Oil: -446,000/day compared to prior week. Multiply that by 7 and it's 3.2 M barrels for a week.

EIA says average of 12 gallons diesel and 19 gallons gasoline per 42 gallon barrel of crude. So, 12/42=0.29 and 19/42=0.45.
- Gasoline at 1.4 /0.45 = 3.1 M barrels of crude
- Diesel at 1.8/0.29 = 6.2 M barrels of crude

I don't know... kind of looks like there wasn't much of a draw?

 

[Miramonti]

dwti is taking a beating like a redheaded step child.
I'm buying when it goes down to $120. (now at 135)

I wonder why oil popped 6%+ today?

I planned to buy more if it continued to fall and 120 would have been great, but I didn't expect it to rally so quickly, and therefore got stuck with only a small purchase lol. I tend to look at things with how they got there (ie fast or not) so I may or may not be interested if/when it gets to 120 (but love to watch it in either case.)

I got out of BOOT before the close for commissions + a date night out with wife (at Subway.) I was looking for a day move that didn't happen but I plan to try again next week. In the long run, it's probably a crappy stock, but for now is or is going to get oversold for the time being imo.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This looks like a classic breakdown pattern forming. I'm surprised you're not shorting and calling for QQQs 106 next week.

Technically anything is possible. The annual Summer Selloff™ does not usually start until 1st quarter numbers are out for most S&P companies in mid May.

Yes, 106 is a possibility next week but so is 112. This weeks range for QQQ was 108.5 to near 111 !! With near daily moves of 1%, the smart money was shorting the extremes. I bought calls and made a little money. The Yen story was theoretical bullcrap IMO.

My only positions right now is short the January 2017 Chesapeake $4 puts for a 42% premium. Im also long May $5 calls on Avanex (AVXL), that I will sell if it hits $7. What are your current positions?

 

[FelixDeCat]

What Im actually mad about is missing the SECOND weekly run up in NUGT (3X GOLD BULL) from $54 to $70!!

 

[Imp]

China's GDP numbers come out this week. Let me guess, they magically did better than the last reading.

And I haven't paid attention much but the Brexit vote happens in late June, about 70 days left. Seeing some polls favoring a vote to leave. The Scotland vote was leaning that way too though, but that one made sense, I really don't get the EU. Everything I've seen makes it look like a club that Germany runs.

 

[OverVolt]

China's GDP numbers come out this week. Let me guess, they magically did better than the last reading.

And I haven't paid attention much but the Brexit vote happens in late June, about 70 days left. Seeing some polls favoring a vote to leave. The Scotland vote was leaning that way too though, but that one made sense, I really don't get the EU. Everything I've seen makes it look like a club that Germany runs.

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/marx-madness

I read that years ago and its something that stuck with me. One of those things you knew someone wrote having a good day sipping coffee and totally nailed it. I think the Europe envy that people in the US have is odd. We overlook so many problems and view it through a tourists lens.

I think you would enjoy the read and half of the forum wouldn't get it like always.

 

[Imp]

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/marx-madness

I read that years ago and its something that stuck with me. One of those things you knew someone wrote having a good day sipping coffee and totally nailed it. I think the Europe envy that people in the US have is odd. We overlook so many problems and view it through a tourists lens.

I think you would enjoy the read and half of the forum wouldn't get it like always.

Read the first bit, then skimmed it after it mentioned communists.

All I think I know is that Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece have been doing teribad over the past few years. France used to be okay, but now it's just Germany, and Germany's DAX index has dropped like 20% over the past year or two. Then there's Turkey that is run by, how do I put this diplomatically, not a really nice leader that the US/EU would probably have nothing to do with if not for Turkey's strategic location.

The UK seems half-in/half-out of the EU already. They'll probably stay once the pro-EU people run ads near the vote about an economic collapse due to a Brexit.

 

[sm625]

Technically anything is possible. The annual Summer Selloff™ does not usually start until 1st quarter numbers are out for most S&P companies in mid May.

Yes, 106 is a possibility next week but so is 112. This weeks range for QQQ was 108.5 to near 111 !! With near daily moves of 1%, the smart money was shorting the extremes. I bought calls and made a little money. The Yen story was theoretical bullcrap IMO.

My only positions right now is short the January 2017 Chesapeake $4 puts for a 42% premium. Im also long May $5 calls on Avanex (AVXL), that I will sell if it hits $7. What are your current positions?

I am trading off of this line.

It is my bread and butter pattern. It typically bounces off this line a bunch of times with easy doubles on weekly puts each bounce before it finally breaks hard one way or another.

 

[Imp]

Alcoa opening up Q1 results:

VIDEO alert:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/11/alcoa-q1-results.html

They cut 600 jobs in Q1, more coming. Their earnings supposedly beat estimates but people who've bothered to look into the details are saying interesting things.

 

[OverVolt]

First the dip, then the rip .

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah, buy.

 

[Imp]

lulz, San Franciso and Miami. Vancouver and Toronto blowing your housing bubbles out of the water by a mile.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/3/vancouver-home-price-growth-tops-100-global-cities/

 

[FelixDeCat]

Today's sell off was f'd up. It was the same dam excuse they used last Thursday - OMG THE DOLLAR IS WEAKENING - SELL!!!

About 6 months ago the market manipulators were screaming OMG THE DOLLAR IS STRENGTHENING - SELL!!!

So which is it? I can understand the strong dollar argument hurting sales abroad but a weaker dollar should help. The bottom line it was more bots, algorithyms, idiotic shorts who have been shorting when the QQQs fell to $98 on OMG TROUBLE IN CHINA!!! back in January.

 

[Miramonti]

Today's sell off was f'd up. It was the same dam excuse they used last Thursday - OMG THE DOLLAR IS WEAKENING - SELL!!!

About 6 months ago the market manipulators were screaming OMG THE DOLLAR IS STRENGTHENING - SELL!!!

So which is it? I can understand the strong dollar argument hurting sales abroad but a weaker dollar should help. The bottom line it was more bots, algorithyms, idiotic shorts who have been shorting when the QQQs fell to $98 on OMG TROUBLE IN CHINA!!! back in January.

I think people are better off finding someone who's predictions they've come to respect, and then listening to their explanations of market movement after the fact, rather than the pundit market tv channel story tellers, who really have no clue about what's driving the market in the short term on any given day. In reality, there are probably few people worth listening to, before or after the fact. As a rule of thumb, if someone is listening to cnbc to find out why the broad market moved, they're doing it wrong.

 

[Charmonium]

I think people are better off finding someone who's predictions they've come to respect, and then listening to their explanations of market movement after the fact, rather than the pundit market tv channel story tellers, who really have no clue about what's driving the market in the short term on any given day. In reality, there are probably few people worth listening to, before or after the fact. As a rule of thumb, if someone is listening to cnbc to find out why the broad market moved, they're doing it wrong.

Yeah, Bloomberg is the way to go. If you have a job and can't watch all day, Surveillance with Tom Keane at 5am is great start. But record it so you can fast forward through the shit you don't care about. At the end of the day, check out What'd You Miss. Alix Steel is very sharp and so is Scarlet Fu.

As far as what drives the markets, on most days, no one really knows. There are always theories but for normal volatility, I don't think you can ever say definitively.

My own theory is that everyone is watching the fed for even the slightest hint of what they might do. So a weak dollar, while good for exports, isn't great for our trade balance. That's not as much of an issue as it was before the shale boom but it might have an effect on core PCE, which is something the fed looks at. If PCE starts going up, it makes the likelihood of another rate rise greater. But I could probably make the opposite argument just as easily.

 

[Imp]

I visit CNBC a lot but only skim the articles. I actually go straight for the comments to see people tear the articles apart because 99% of them feel like fluff/click-bait.

What makes market move? Complete bullshit.

Only reliable guestimate is probably a recession and major market pull-back every 5-10 years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Chesapeake hit $4.50 today. Im thinking of shorting the $5 puts for January of 2017 as well.

Remember when oil rallies meant a big up market? Well today the market said "f oil, we are going to go short".

goldman also sell / short. Hmmm, I wonder why.

 

[holden j caufield]

What makes market move? Complete bullshit.

I've come to realize this also. Absolute bullshit how some stuff moves. Now say I or joe blow enters a limit buy for FB, my brokerage now knows what I and 1 million joe blows is thinking. They have way more info than the rest of us.

I set a limit price and I see the limit price being hit multiple times in the hour and still my order doesn't get filled. It's a small order to sell 5,000 of x stock at $3 I saw the limit get to $3 multiple times, is my brokerage waiting for it to hit 3.005 or 3.1 so they can scalp some extra pennies off each transaction.

To me they are almost like vegas betting lines, they get info from bets, shorts etc and move the line accordingly.

 

[Imp]

Remember when oil rallies meant a big up market? Well today the market said "f oil, we are going to go short".

Remember when there was a 2 million barrel/day global supply surplus and OPEC members were known for cheating on quotas which is partly why the Saudis gave everyone the finger in the first place? Well, the market doesn't.

I set a limit price and I see the limit price being hit multiple times in the hour and still my order doesn't get filled. It's a small order to sell 5,000 of x stock at $3 I saw the limit get to $3 multiple times, is my brokerage waiting for it to hit 3.005 or 3.1 so they can scalp some extra pennies off each transaction.

Just checking... are you setting your limit price at the bid/ask price?

 

[Miramonti]

I've come to realize this also. Absolute bullshit how some stuff moves. Now say I or joe blow enters a limit buy for FB, my brokerage now knows what I and 1 million joe blows is thinking. They have way more info than the rest of us.

I set a limit price and I see the limit price being hit multiple times in the hour and still my order doesn't get filled. It's a small order to sell 5,000 of x stock at $3 I saw the limit get to $3 multiple times, is my brokerage waiting for it to hit 3.005 or 3.1 so they can scalp some extra pennies off each transaction.

To me they are almost like vegas betting lines, they get info from bets, shorts etc and move the line accordingly.

The price/sales have to go through your order for you to have a better certainty your order is filled, which is still no guarantee if it is brief. Whether your order gets filled at $3 or another seller's order at $3 usually depends on the rebates offered by seller, size offered, as well as preference of the buying party. Also, what looks like other sales at $3 could be done at $2.9999 by those stepping in front of $3 sellers. (Sub-penny trades should be banned for anything >$1.)

 

[Charmonium]

he should also check his execution instructions. 50 round lots is a lot of stock. If you've specified all or none in your execution instructions, you need to wait for someone with 50 or more round lots to sell. Instead specify partial execution and the trade should go through bit by bit.

 

[Miramonti]

he should also check his execution instructions. 50 round lots is a lot of stock. If you've specified all or none in your execution instructions, you need to wait for someone with 50 or more round lots to sell. Instead specify partial execution and the trade should go through bit by bit.

Indeed.

 

[holden j caufield]

Thx, someone mentioned Gold NUGT last week and I've been in that for a little this week.

Been in MNKD since last week it's been crazy 1.12 on Friday and up to 1.8 today. Not sure I'd buy it at this price but it's been up .25 the last two days

 

[sm625]

Today will probably be the last time it bounces off this line before breaking difinitively in one direction or another. For this bounce I expect SPY 104 weekly puts to go from just over 50 cents at 2pm today to $1.10 easy within 24 hours, potentially even over $2.00 but I wont be holding that long.

At this exact point, where the market is following a line like this for several days, it is also smart to simply go with a 205.50 straddle. Such a play captures a breakout in either direction. Clearly a breakout is coming, since any time you have movement pinned to a line like this the market becomes like a coiled spring.

 

[holden j caufield]

he should also check his execution instructions. 50 round lots is a lot of stock. If you've specified all or none in your execution instructions, you need to wait for someone with 50 or more round lots to sell. Instead specify partial execution and the trade should go through bit by bit.

My only options are None or All or None. I choose none and it's still slow to fill.