***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Well, that's interesting. House prices fell in Sydney, Australia. The last time they dropped was in March 2012.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-22/house-price-growth-slows-as-sydney-reverses/7267680

Last month, I only heard of drops in small towns. The big cities were still plowing along. Google says Sydney is their most populace city. Melbourne is just a touch behind.

Hong Kong's been dropping for months.

 

[KB]

Nice call bro! Merger approved PEPCO up 27% today! ()

Days like this keep me day trading, when I know I should be indexing. 25% gain in a week is a good feeling. I knew it would go through once the bribes got big enough.

Anyone else who likes to play merger arbitrage opportunities, SYT syngenta is being bought by Chem China and its share price is well below the buy price. I think the odds of the deal happening are very good. I do have some skin in the game.

 

[Michael]

Nice call bro! Merger approved PEPCO up 27% today! ()

I have owned Pepco for years. One of my DRIP stocks and just did extra well for me with this news.

Michael

 

[FelixDeCat]

Chart looking ugly for VRX, might hit brand new 52 low.

 

[Imp]

Looks like everything's in a holding pattern until late April... Stupid OPEC "freeze" meeting and next Fed meeting. Market only cares about Fed at this point.

 

[Imp]

Opinion piece but interesting. Some giant luxury Manhattan condo/apartment isn't selling, allegedly.

There's an auto-playing video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/this-real-estate-market-is-about-to-crash-commentary.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

SUNE manipulated to no end. Today it was up nearly 20% to $1.50 on a trading quiet period issued by the company until financials are released. There was also a supposed phony rumor that SUNE would be bought out. Closed up .05 cents to $1.26.

THEN after hours an sec investigation was announced based on reports that former laid off employees claimed SUNE lied about its cash position in the 3rd quarter, and it fact it has no cash available to pay any bills whatsoever. The stock fell to 90 cents down, 30%.

Such garbage.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like everything's in a holding pattern until late April... Stupid OPEC "freeze" meeting and next Fed meeting. Market only cares about Fed at this point.

Just for fun I bought 2(TWO) NUGT $55 call options for $800 on Friday. I sold them at the open today for $950. They fell all the way down to $460 before recovering back to $650.

Talk about a roller coaster ride! D:

If the Fed is dovish, expect NUGT to zoom from $54 to $64. If they repeat warnings of a possible rate hike in April NUGT could fall to $45. That crazy stock goes up or down $5 to $15+ ... intraday ...almost every day.

3X LONG GOLD ETF

 

[Imp]

Some Fed members have been talking about the rate going up in April.

Great, so if they do raise, market crashes. If they don't raise, then the Fed is a super liar again and markets rocket up because free money forever BBQxxo.

 

[Miramonti]

Just bought 1500 sune at .51, a small short term bet there is more fear of an imminent bankruptcy in today's selling as opposed to one days away.

/edit: actually SunEdison came out and said today it was a substantial risk to file, so I got out for a small profit, as it probably is pretty imminent.

 

[Charmonium]

Some Fed members have been talking about the rate going up in April.

Great, so if they do raise, market crashes. If they don't raise, then the Fed is a super liar again and markets rocket up because free money forever BBQxxo.

It's a little difficult to raise rates when so many big economies like Japan and Germany have negative rates. So it would not be appreciated by some of our trading partners.

It would boost the value of the dollar and therefore aggravate disinflation. It would cause the value of oil, in dollars, to drop hurting the US economy by insuring little to no capex in that area. It would increase the number of energy company bankruptcies, etc. It would also reduce the value of most other commodities which have only recently started to turn around.

I'm sure there are some hawks on the board. Some of those folks were ready to raise rates years ago. So this could just be some personal venting. More likely, it could be an attempt to prepare the market should the fed decide to do something like that.

But honestly, I can't see any reason to at this point unless we see significant wage inflation or something else clearly indicating that the economy is too hot.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Just for fun I bought 2(TWO) NUGT $55 call options for $800 on Friday. I sold them at the open today for $950. They fell all the way down to $460 before recovering back to $650.

Talk about a roller coaster ride! D:

If the Fed is dovish, expect NUGT to zoom from $54 to $64. If they repeat warnings of a possible rate hike in April NUGT could fall to $45. That crazy stock goes up or down $5 to $15+ ... intraday ...almost every day.

3X LONG GOLD ETF

Two $55 calls hit $1500!

 

[Imp]

It's a little difficult to raise rates when so many big economies like Japan and Germany have negative rates. So it would not be appreciated by some of our trading partners.

<snip>

But honestly, I can't see any reason to at this point unless we see significant wage inflation or something else clearly indicating that the economy is too hot.

Fed hike back in December was probably a one and done. World economy sucks, bubbles are starting to pop in Hong Kong and China, S&P 500 earnings are supposedly dropping with P/E past 15 (I heard 17 or 23 depending on accounting practices)... ya, something's about to give.

Edit: Oh look, the Fed chair supposedly talked down the prospects of a rate hike, markets up and DXY dropped. Once again, mission accomplished, you propped up the markets for another day.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/29/yellen-pushes-back-at-the-hawks-stocks-higher.html

 

[sm625]

Just for fun I bought 2(TWO) NUGT $55 call options for $800 on Friday. I sold them at the open today for $950. They fell all the way down to $460 before recovering back to $650.

Talk about a roller coaster ride! D:

If the Fed is dovish, expect NUGT to zoom from $54 to $64. If they repeat warnings of a possible rate hike in April NUGT could fall to $45. That crazy stock goes up or down $5 to $15+ ... intraday ...almost every day.

3X LONG GOLD ETF

There is hardly any volume on those calls and the spreads are so wide. I think you could experience the same type of roller coaster action just by trading GLD calls, and lose a lot less money due to lack of liquidity in NUGT options.

 

[Udgnim]

US Production down 30K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

US production down 16K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

 

[Charmonium]

US production down 16K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Am I reading that right? More than half of US crude inventory is in the SPR? (strategic petroleum reserve)

 

[Imp]

US production down 16K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Don't worry, man. Saudis and Kuwait got you covered:

http://abcnews.go.com/International...ia-resume-oil-production-joint-field-38000873

KUWAIT CITY — Mar 29, 2016, 10:12 AM ET

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia to Resume Oil Production at Joint Field

The field, which was producing under 300,000 barrels of oil per day, was shut in October 2014...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Chart looking ugly for VRX, might hit brand new 52 low.

Lost two more dollars today to $27 on somewhat good news - audit committee found nothing worse to reveal. Only $1.07 more to break that low.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There is hardly any volume on those calls and the spreads are so wide. I think you could experience the same type of roller coaster action just by trading GLD calls, and lose a lot less money due to lack of liquidity in NUGT options.

GLD does not match NUGT's 3x volatility, therefore it can never be as dangerous nor scary to ride. But yes, the spreads are wide because no one really knows where the funk its going intraday. UP $5, down $5, then back up $5!!!

Yesterday it finished up $9!!

 

[Charmonium]

China credit outlook downgraded from stable to negative

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ok-to-negative-from-stable-2016-03-31-5911224

 

[Imp]

China credit outlook downgraded from stable to negative

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ok-to-negative-from-stable-2016-03-31-5911224

Meh, who cares. Fed isn't raising rates. According to the markets, that's all that matters. Credit/market cycle, what cycle? We don't need no stinking cycles anymore.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lost two more dollars today to $27 on somewhat good news - audit committee found nothing worse to reveal. Only $1.07 more to break that low.

GOAL!!! S&P *downgrades* VRX credit rating sending the stock to a 52 week low!!

(Despite that VRX has adequate cashflow and plans to file its financials on time....its a battered stock worth buying IMO, but the market thinks otherwise)

Will it go back up next week - back to $30 perhaps? :sneaky:

 

[OverVolt]

Did we hit escape velocity yet.

 

[theeedude]

Did we hit escape velocity yet.

More like terminal velocity.

 

[FelixDeCat]

GOAL!!! S&P *downgrades* VRX credit rating sending the stock to a 52 week low!!

(Despite that VRX has adequate cashflow and plans to file its financials on time....its a battered stock worth buying IMO, but the market thinks otherwise)

Will it go back up next week - back to $30 perhaps? :sneaky:

This stock is so crazy ..... this week it went from $33 to $27 on a subpoena from Congress...back to $30 on updated financial information...then fell to $25.95 on an S&P credit downgrade....NOW BACK OVER $29 on an oversold rally.

LOL