***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

yeah, can't really get a read on anything

no September rate hike, markets tumble

low September job #s, markets rally

Fed says they plan to still raise rates before end of year, markets rally

Bullshit reasons:

No September rate hike = no rate hike ever so cheap, easy credit keeps flowing to prop up everything.

Low September job #s = no September rate hike, see above.

Fed plans to raise rates = they said they'd raise it in September all of last year. They'll never raise them now...

 

[Charmonium]

Oil is considered a barometer for the health of the global economy. I guess even sophisticated investors forget that price is determined by both supply and demand and that low prices can be a function of increased supply as well as decreased demand. Here's a graph I got today from Bloomberg.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Cheap oil has always had a stimulative impact on economies. As I mention here on 10/3/15:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37742577&postcount=1063

...I think we are going back to 5000 on the Nasdaq (could be wrong, but its up 103 points since then)

 

[JEDI]

why have the biotechs been taking a licking lately?
why the selloff?

 

[Train]

why have the biotechs been taking a licking lately?
why the selloff?

You living under a rock?

Hillary threatened legislation after the dude jacked up the price of an AIDS pill

 

[JEDI]

You living under a rock?

Hillary threatened legislation after the dude jacked up the price of an AIDS pill

ok.. that's going to be 2017 at the soonest...2yrs away.

and maybe never if she's not elected pres.

 

[Charmonium]

I think biotech was overvalued anyway but it really took a hit when that asshole jacked up prices on that AIDS drug.

 

[Train]

ok.. that's going to be 2017 at the soonest...2yrs away.

and maybe never if she's not elected pres.

tell that to the markets

 

[Charmonium]

tell that to the markets

Yes. There's been a lot more scrutiny over drug pricing since this happened and when you're trying to game the system by bribing generic drug makers to NOT make your off-patent blockbuster drug, scrutiny is the last thing you want or need.

 

[JEDI]

trying to game the system by bribing generic drug makers to NOT make your off-patent blockbuster drug

is that even legal?!

 

[Charmonium]

is that even legal?!

Apparently. I can't find a good source for this but this is what has happened with Nexium. The brand is actually cheaper, although only slightly, than the generic. As I understand things, the company that owns Nexium (Pfizer?) paid generic makers an incentive, I guess to raise their prices so they don't compete with the brand. I know I read something about this recently but I can't find it now.

 

[Train]

is that even legal?!

That might be the case with other drugs, but the AIDS drug in question was the only one legal to sell in the USA because it was the only one FDA approved, so even though the patent was expired, and there were dozens of $5 alternatives worldwide, it was still a monopoly until another company would go through 6+ months of FDA review and pay the millions it cost to get it done.

One solution is to do like most countries do, and allow foreign approval of drugs to pass here.

For example, UK and Canada will accept a drug that has FDA approval. But the USA won't accept a drug that has both UK, Canadian, and Indian approval (like generic versions of the AIDS drug)

 

[FelixDeCat]

why have the biotechs been taking a licking lately?
why the selloff?

Ill just put this biotech stock chart right here......

 

[Charmonium]

The two biggest pharma etf's are down since the middle of sept. - PJP and IHE

 

[FelixDeCat]

The two biggest pharma etf's are down since the middle of sept. - PJP and IHE

Its a stock pickers market.

 

[iCyborg]

ok.. that's going to be 2017 at the soonest...2yrs away.

and maybe never if she's not elected pres.

It's already had impact. Valeant is a company I never heard until this year until it shot up to No1 or No2 on S&P TSX, overtaking the biggest Canadian banks (TD and RBC). It was seen as a bright spot in an otherwise slumping Canadian stock market.
It has crashed recently, VW-style, there's some inquest into its business actions, I think it directly follows Hillary's criticisms.
It's quite deplorable what they're doing - acquiring drug companies and then massively increasing their drug prices, with little investment into its own R&D. Same thing as that Skhreli did, only he did it really obscenely, going from $13.50 per tablet to $750 or something, just after the acquisition.

As much as it hurts me financially to see this as Valeant is part of both my Cdn index fund and healthcare MF, this really should be stopped. There's a good NY Times article on Valeant's business model.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

is that even legal?!

Why not? You pay a generic company, say... $3mil to not use your drug patent for an additional 5 years.

Does that prevent a new generic company, or a different generic company from participating and using your patent? No. So you better buy off all of them.

Yes, as far as I know it's fairly legal.

 

[Hugo Drax]

All those SPY puts and calls I sold expired OTM. 🙂

 

[FelixDeCat]

All those SPY puts and calls I sold expired OTM. 🙂

If you are an option buyer there is one word you loathe to hear ... "zero"..........unless you are a SELLER in options, in which case ZERO is great news!

Were those positions naked or did you do a spread to capture more premium?

 

[Imp]

Might change the rest of my CAD into USD this week.

Bank of Canada should be holding interest rates steady. Fingers crossed that they drop it from 0.50% to match the US of A.

 

[Imp]

What the hell is EMC? And Dell has $62 billion to spare?

Oh, and oil fell. OPEC apparently boosted output.

 

[sm625]

What the hell is EMC?

A place for bubble money to go. I believe they own VMWare though. At least that is worth something.

 

[Imp]

USD tanked hard today. China currency devaluation was what I heard. Go go China... keep that bubble from popping -- because completely empty cities are perfectly normal.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Walmart down 9% for projected flat sales this next quarter. Holy shit....

Bad news for Walmart? Man, people must be changing... what do you guys think? Personally I haven't step foot in a Walmart unless it was to pick-up an online order (and only if it was a REALLY good deal, maybe once in the last 3 years). I wouldn't go to Walmart simply for:
1. The other people (customers)
2. The workers (retarded)
3. The Lines. They deliberately only have 1 cashier open even with 20 people in line
4. The shit quality. I don't buy things like furniture all to have to buy it again 2 years later.

Are Americans changing, or just bad times?

 

[Imp]

Wal-Mart... Are they really doing bad, or is it more like "we've expanded everywhere, we make a ton of money, more than small countries, but we no longer have explosive growth, but we'll probably remain a competitive business in the long-run and OMFGBBQ, our stock price is down?"

Details from a stock ticker site: Market Cap is at $214B, revenue $485B, and P/E=14.0. My accounting skills aren't good enough to figure out the profit from accounting reports but it looks like they're not losing money?

They're saying the same about McDonalds and YUM brands nowadays... Go back to 2011-ish, I remember the "OMG, McDonalds and YUM are such good investments, massive expansion everywhere, great business when in recession because people can't afford expensive restaurants."