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***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Ummm.... so the market in China crashed like 8% on Monday. Tuesday markets open in a few hours. So much for all that intervention by the gubment.
 
Imp said:
Ummm.... so the market in China crashed like 8% on Monday. Tuesday markets open in a few hours. So much for all that intervention by the gubment.
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Yeah, there are some advantages to being able to control the market as much as the Chinese govt does but the technique of supporting stock prices by buying was tried here in 1929. It didn't work then and it wasn't going to work now. All you do is postpone the inevitable.

Shutting the market down works in the short run but eventually you need to open trading up again and when you do, everyone and their dog will try to cut their losses.

This is a big deal for commodities since China is a major consumer. If their economy really is going through a contraction, that's going to suck for a lot of US companies with exposure to China. I haven't checked but from what I've heard, this is going to hit places that do a lot of exporting to China very hard. Places like Australia.
 
Charmonium said:
This is a big deal for commodities since China is a major consumer. If their economy really is going through a contraction, that's going to suck for a lot of US companies with exposure to China. I haven't checked but from what I've heard, this is going to hit places that do a lot of exporting to China very hard. Places like Australia.
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And Canada... Our government still doesn't think we're in a recession -- election year.

P.S. WTI is down to $47.0x. Think it hit $46 at some point today.
 
Imp said:
And Canada... Our government still doesn't think we're in a recession -- election year.

P.S. WTI is down to $47.0x. Think it hit $46 at some point today.
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I was going to buy puts on OAS but cold feet at the last moment. I would have tripled my money. 😳
 
I should buy some Canadian Oil Sands (COS)... It's down to CA$ 7.01. The last time it went down here, I shit my pants, but it went back up to CA$ 12-ish within two weeks. Quarterly report should be this week.

Not going to play since they, from what I understand, have a single operation in a single location producing a single product. And that product is worth jack shit right now...
 
Imp said:
I should buy some Canadian Oil Sands (COS)... It's down to CA$ 7.01. The last time it went down here, I shit my pants, but it went back up to CA$ 12-ish within two weeks. Quarterly report should be this week.

Not going to play since they, from what I understand, have a single operation in a single location producing a single product. And that product is worth jack shit right now...
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Buy shares of SPY instead.
 
Oil stocks will be in the toilet for a while I'm afraid.

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Demand is declining but even were that not the case, the minute it starts to go back up, so will the price. And as soon as that happens, the horizontal drillers will be back on the case pumping the shit out of every shale deposit on the planet.

I even read recently that there is shale oil near Gatwick airport in the UK - maybe as much as 100B barrels. Also read that shale reserves are probably understated since they can be "re-fracked", meaning that even after a deposit runs dry, you can re-frack it and get more.

We're going to be swimming in oil. When the US is producing more than Saudi Arabia, that's some fucked up shit. Plus, I doubt that every exploitable shale deposit has been found.
 
Imp said:
I should buy some Canadian Oil Sands (COS)... It's down to CA$ 7.01. The last time it went down here, I shit my pants, but it went back up to CA$ 12-ish within two weeks. Quarterly report should be this week.

Not going to play since they, from what I understand, have a single operation in a single location producing a single product. And that product is worth jack shit right now...
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Canadian dollar is now $0.77 USD?!
it only like 10months ago that CAD was worth more than a US dollar!
 
Charmonium said:
I even read recently that there is shale oil near Gatwick airport in the UK - maybe as much as 100B barrels. Also read that shale reserves are probably understated since they can be "re-fracked", meaning that even after a deposit runs dry, you can re-frack it and get more.
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From what I've seen, it seems like fracking has unlocked every oil deposit in everyone's backyard across the entire world. Meanwhile, Canada's tar sands may be selling for Western Canada Select (WCS) prices unless it's upgraded -- WCS looks to be about a $15 discount to WTI right now or low $30s. The discount fluctuates a lot.

JEDI said:
Canadian dollar is now $0.77 USD?!
it only like 10months ago that CAD was worth more than a US dollar!
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That was at least a year ago. Think it was in the mid 90s this time last year. Can't wait until September: if the Fed raises rates, Canada's central bank probably won't follow for a while, may even drop.


And hello, HCG.TO. Headline below:

Home Capital cut ties with dozens of mortgage brokers over falsified documents
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ers-over-falsified-documents/article25762694/
 
LONG SPY Sept 18th 2015 214.000 call @ 1.25. This is going to be my big trade of the year. Time to sit back and watch the fireworks.
 
One of my market timing models does indeed show AAPL as being a buy, assuming it can eek out any sort of gain by the end of the day today. Aug 21 119 calls look like a really good bet.
 
sm625 said:
One of my market timing models does indeed show AAPL as being a buy, assuming it can eek out any sort of gain by the end of the day today. Aug 21 119 calls look like a really good bet.
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so how many contracts did you purchase at what price. what is the IV On those contracts and are they priced above or below the HV?
 
So, $1 CAD = 0.759-ish USD. One more month and the floodgates should open if the Fed finally jacks it up -- Bank of Canada may jack it down to create an even bigger shear effect. Might get some SPY after that.

And WTI is down to just above $45 now.
 
Hugo Drax said:
so how many contracts did you purchase at what price. what is the IV On those contracts and are they priced above or below the HV?
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I dont even consider stocks that have violated the 200dma. Even though the pattern looks the same as nov 2012, and it will probably retest the 200dma shortly. I leave that for the lovers of the company, and knife catchers in general.
 
sm625 said:
LONG SPY Sept 18th 2015 214.000 call @ 1.25. This is going to be my big trade of the year. Time to sit back and watch the fireworks.
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emote_laughing_smiley.gif


214.00 SPY150918C00214000 0.98 -22.83%


Ill admit I was doing great this year and then made some big dumbassed option bets and got killed. But I hope you sold near term calls to fund your longer term purchase because I think the market is about to get its ass kicked.*

*Ironically I bought some QQQ 110.5s calls that expire tomorrow hoping for a quick pump-n-dump.

(good luck either way)
 
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damn it.. bought some NCL stock when Royal Caribbean beat estimates by a WIDE margin last week.
then NCL missed estimates when they reported this week. 🙁

gambled and lost.
but still holding on because I'm only down 1%.

also, should have held my short on oil when it was $50/barrel.
chickened out when it passed $60/barrel.

now at $44/barrel 🙁
*SIGH*
 
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