***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

SUNE off another $2+ from $15.5 to $13.5. Long calls. :|

 

[FelixDeCat]

Rates are going up to the astoundingly high rate of .50% in September, no matter what the bulls want.

I sure hope we can cope with a punishing prime rate of 3.50%.

 

[Charmonium]

Rates are going up to the astoundingly high rate of .50% in September, no matter what the bulls want.

I sure hope we can cope with a punishing prime rate of 3.50%.

The impression I get is that it's mainly the fact that it will be a turning point - much like the taper tantrum. People are always trying to anticipate the direction of rates. Even though the fed always goes out of its way to telegraph rate moves, that doesn't mean that they're completely in control especially on the long end. If demand for money increases, and the banks are willing to loosen underwriting requirements, the fed could be forced to act. Also if inflation heats up, which is more likely if we pass full emplyment (NAIRU), they don't have much choice. Since the fed presumably has access to more data than the market, I think people look at the fed increasing rates as a sign that they believe the economy is set to continue its expansion.

 

[Imp]

Rates are going up to the astoundingly high rate of .50% in September, no matter what the bulls want.

I sure hope we can cope with a punishing prime rate of 3.50%.

Hey, man, that's a 100% increase from the current 0-0.25% rate... ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!!!

Seriously, what the hell is a 0 to 0.25 rate? Is it zero or is it 0.25%? I thought it was 0.15%.

 

[Imp]

China devalued a second time? Huh?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Hey, man, that's a 100% increase from the current 0-0.25% rate... ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!!!

Seriously, what the hell is a 0 to 0.25 rate? Is it zero or is it 0.25%? I thought it was 0.15%.

Currently the prime rate is 3.25% (3% over the Fed rate to banks of .25%). I suspect the first increase in 7 years will be a measly .25%, resulting in a new prime of 3.50%.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Still waiting for that market correction.. I was hoping the news of fed rate hikes being imminent would be the cue.

 

[Charmonium]

China devalued a second time? Huh?

Yup. There will probably be at least one more. Looks like China's economy is sucking panda dick. Might be an opportunity to short some commodities like iron ore but personally, I don't have the balls for that.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Yup. There will probably be at least one more. Looks like China's economy is sucking panda dick. Might be an opportunity to short some commodities like iron ore but personally, I don't have the balls for that.

Just make sure you have a cash buffer to meet variation margin calls in order to maintain those iron future short positions. 😀

 

[FelixDeCat]

But I hope you sold near term calls to fund your longer term purchase because I think the market is about to get its ass kicked.*

:whiste:

 

[Charmonium]

Just make sure you have a cash buffer to meet variation margin calls in order to maintain those iron future short positions. 😀

I was thinking more like selling calls on RIO, BHP or VALE - or buying puts.

 

[Imp]

Yup. There will probably be at least one more. Looks like China's economy is sucking panda dick. Might be an opportunity to short some commodities like iron ore but personally, I don't have the balls for that.

With how difficult it is for pandas to breed, may as well suck a pine cone...

Anyway, looks like USD down hard. The beet seems to be that Fed won't raise rate since China is devaluing their own currency.

Edit: lulz... Canadians are piling on the "good" debt.

The average amount of debt Canadians now hold rose significantly to about $93,000 in June from $76,140 a year earlier...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ing-up-good-debt-report-says/article25932624/

 

[Imp]

Looks like China may have done it again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dead cats will be bouncing today.

 

[brianmanahan]

Looks like China may have done it again.

oops

 

[Charmonium]

Going against my own advice, I bought a couple 37.5 RIO Sept puts. We'll see how that goes.

But I came across this interesting chart today. It show in/outflows for US and non-US equity funds. It seems like everyone is now interested in putting their money overseas. Of course many US companies have heavy offshore exposure and this doesn't capture that but it's still pretty interesting.

Article here - http://www.businessinsider.com/rich-bernstein-domestic-equity-rolling-12-month-net-flows-2015-8

 

[Imp]

Oil, WTI, is in the $42 range. Think it may have hit $41 range earlier in the day.

Oh, and storage is supposedly filling up, but they said storage would be full by May and here we are now...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil...levels-not-seen-in-80-years-1.3190001?cmp=rss

 

[Charmonium]

Oil, WTI, is in the $42 range. Think it may have hit $41 range earlier in the day.

Oh, and storage is supposedly filling up, but they said storage would be full by May and here we are now...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil...levels-not-seen-in-80-years-1.3190001?cmp=rss

Yeah, plus new techniques for extracting oil will be coming online soon. You've heard of fracking but now there's zapping - or whatever they end up calling it. You send a microwave emitter down the hole and zap the rock. It gets hot and the oil becomes fluid.

This is also great for pumping out the real sludge at the bottom of normal oil wells. Send the emitter down, heat the sludge, pump it out.

 

[Imp]

That is genius. Just cooking the shit out with microwaves. Hope no one hits 20 minutes instead of 20 seconds...

 

[FelixDeCat]

GM is so far behind large truck and SUV demand they are now running three shifts, 24 hours a day, 6 days a week to try to keep up.

The Arabians are trying to kill off over-levered energy players but this wont last forever. But hey, if you got the money go ahead and buy a $110,000 14MPG SUV and drive your happy ass off with sub $2 gas!

The days of $4+ a gallon gas are gone forever!

 

[KB]

GM is so far behind large truck and SUV demand they are now running three shifts, 24 hours a day, 6 days a week to try to keep up.

The Arabians are trying to kill off over-levered energy players but this wont last forever. But hey, if you got the money go ahead and buy a $110,000 14MPG SUV and drive your happy ass off with sub $2 gas!

The days of $4+ a gallon gas are gone forever!

Please Keep buying the SUVs. Long F and GM and both stocks are still cheap, paying >4% yield.

Oil will return to 60+ for sure. The Saudis are selling bonds to stay a float and small American oil companies are going bankrupt eventually. Was one just today run by KKR.

Anyone following micron? PE < 7 With a Chinese buyout offer 25% higher. Seems like a no brainier except concerns the buyout won't pass regulators.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Yeah the last GM investors did great. Buying GM as a dividend play is foolish when you can get SPY instead and it pays dividends as well.

 

[Imp]

WTI, you be down to $41.9x.

I kicked myself for selling COS when it hit CA$ 13. It's down to CA$ 6.47 right now or US$ 4.94. What happens when you're a single operation with no refineries (unless you count the upgraders that raise the price of their sludge to about WTI instead of heavily discounted WCS)?

 

[sm625]

Exiting all trades. Market just turned ugly in a big way.

 

[holden j caufield]

Exiting all trades. Market just turned ugly in a big way.

I keep thinking that but if hasn't been all that bad at all considering china and europe took a bath recently.

Does anyone know why Sprint has gone gangbusters in the last 2 weeks? Went from 3.15 12 days ago and is sitting at 4.80.