***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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dr150

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,570
24
81
With the ignorant voters voting NO, Greeks better prepare for some major pain that'll make last week's bank closures look like a Disney vacation.

Markets will be red this week, but should recover right quick. Too much background game theory planning by the EU should assure that contagion won't occur, as last week's troubled countries European bond market showed.

Greece, on the other hand, will suffer immensely. I feel sorry for the people who voted YES, as their emotionally proud and ignorant knucklehead compatriots voting NO will sink that country to the bottom of the Mediterranean sea. :colbert:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ters-decide-on-future-path-as-euro-exit-looms
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......Just wait and see in the coming weeks what happens to trade, especially the largely import driven food and medicine supply. Bank insolvency will soon be on the horizon and be at the mercy of the ECB not suspending the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program.........This can easily evolve into a humanitarian crisis.

Return to a devalued Drachma?....An organizational transitional nightmare of epic proportions for the culturally disorganized Greeks......They even ran out of voting paper for the polling stations for Sunday's vote. Now lets see them deal with a Drachma transition. The super well-organized Germans knew how tough it was to blend in E. Germany back in the day. Greeks have no fucking clue what'll take.
 
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brianmanahan

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,625
6,011
136
debian0001 said:
Hey guys, is there a 401K like fund that I can get into with extra money but easily get out of it if I needed the money? I like liquidity. How bad is the taxes on that?

Is there any special consideration with ETFs?
Click to expand...

a Roth IRA would let you invest into anything you like (up to 5500$ per year) and get the contributions (but not the gains) out at any time.

there is no taxation on Roth IRA withdrawals since you pay full taxes on the contributions.

you can start one by going to a brokerage firms website like vanguard, fidelity or schwab.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Dow futures down only 1.12% or -200 as of now. Nasdaq -50.

Everyone was expecting this and will be seeing it as a buying opportunity, but be careful. The bottom is unknown.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Meh, only thing that I care about from all of this is the USD's valuation. If people dump Euros to buy USD for the relative safety, I make mucho dinero.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Imp said:
Meh, only thing that I care about from all of this is the USD's valuation. If people dump Euros to buy USD for the relative safety, I make mucho dinero.
Click to expand...

ETF or direct holding of currency pair contract? There are too many ways to lose money already, so I only trade stocks and options. No currency, no futures, no commodities. Too risky. :eek:

Last year I traded the silver ETF (SLV) and since its technically a trust share I had to a little extra work reporting it on my taxes.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,537
3,535
136
FelixDeCat said:
ETF or direct holding of currency pair contract? There are too many ways to lose money already, so I only trade stocks and options. No currency, no futures, no commodities. Too risky. :eek:

Last year I traded the silver ETF (SLV) and since its technically a trust share I had to a little extra work reporting it on my taxes.
Click to expand...
There are ways to minimize the volatility of some commodities. For example if you buy coins that have numismatic value in addition to the value of their metal content, you can minimize price fluctuations. But then of course you have carrying costs like safe deposit box rentals, but that shouldn't be an issue for relatively small holdings.

The US Mint for example charges about a 40% premium over what the metal content is for proof coins but they have fairly low mintages - anywhere from as low as 20k strikes to maybe 50k. So even if the value of the metal drops, you're still going to get a nice premium when you go to sell just because of the rarity and the initial premium.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
FelixDeCat said:
ETF or direct holding of currency pair contract? There are too many ways to lose money already, so I only trade stocks and options. No currency, no futures, no commodities. Too risky. :eek:

Last year I traded the silver ETF (SLV) and since its technically a trust share I had to a little extra work reporting it on my taxes.
Click to expand...

I'm in Canada and spend CAD, so I can actually hold USD and try to profit off the exchange rate directly -- most stocks/ETFs I buy are USD anyway. I'm up more than 10% on average since I started buying USD years ago. In reality, I'm not really up much since things have gotten more and more expensive in CAD as the exchange rate has moved.

This would be a lot more difficult as an American since everything you do is already in USD.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
FelixDeCat said:
lol

Who in their right minds has been buying oil companies?

That stuff is toxic over $50.
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I've been thinking of buying COS -- the POS I lost 50% on earlier in the year -- because it's been swinging up and down 20% every few weeks. Problem is that it might go to zero... It went to like $6 from $20 less than a year ago at one point.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Imp said:
I've been thinking of buying COS -- the POS I lost 50% on earlier in the year -- because it's been swinging up and down 20% every few weeks. Problem is that it might go to zero... It went to like $6 from $20 less than a year ago at one point.
Click to expand...

I took a big haircut today thinking I caught the bottom in Solar and got my ass handed to me. Energy is a tough call right now.
 
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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
CAD going down... trade deficit in May widened from about $3.0B to $3.3B. But don't worry, the politicians and national bank governor said it would all start turning around by the second quarter. Never mind all the retailers that closed earlier in the year, factories that closed over the past few years, and oil prices in the shitter.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Ok, Im long solar again. Nine October 26 calls.

Lets make back those losses!!

(and sell calls against it in the meantime)

:sneaky:
 
K

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
Anyone following the China markets?

I not in it, But, when the markets in China dived in 07 the US rolled over at about the same time.

Makes me wonder...


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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Kwatt said:
Anyone following the China markets?

I not in it, But, when the markets in China dived in 07 the US rolled over at about the same time.

Makes me wonder...


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Click to expand...

Something something China tried to save their market but it's still diving. Down 5% right now. Last check was down 30% in 3 weeks?

I love how news stories keep mentioning that it's down 20-30%, but it went up like 150% from a year ago... Wouldn't that mean it's down 40-60% out of that 150% if we use the same reference point?
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Futures down big again. Greece is not over, China is not over. Maybe earnings season will turn things around.

:\
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Keep in mind that most crashes occur roughly 6 weeks after the top was put in. We are hovering right over that target right now. Tomorrow will be exactly 7 weeks after the S&P 500 hit its closing high.

July is one of the best months for me. My indicator has been 100% accurate for July. I'm not getting the usual buy signals that often accompany the 4th of july rallies (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). But I'm also not seeing anything mega bearish like in late july 2011. I think the slow steady downtrend that began 6 weeks ago will continue relatively smoothly.
 
MomentsofSanity

MomentsofSanity

Lifer
Jan 25, 2011
17,076
9,554
146
Charmonium said:
Can't your broker route trades to other exchanges? I checked a couple of NYSE stocks and they still seem to be trading.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's exactly what we do in that circumstance. Doesn't mean people don't call with stupid questions ruining my fun.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
I think their market actually went up this past Monday... Then took a dump every day afterward. Gotta be time for a dead cat bounce.
 
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