***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

Part of me is pissing my pants expecting a major dump. Other part is telling me that I and others have been saying that for years -- it's only led to me missing a shit ton of gains.

Going to check some stuff out over the next month. Hope it doesn't dump before then? But my main goal is playing the Canadian dollar. I get the feeling that it is going to take a hardcore dump within the next year.

I guess. Main point is you can't lose what you don't put in. - And yes, that is a shitload more important than "You can't win what you don't play". You hear a lot more about people going to Vegas that were "Up $2000 but lost it" more than anything else.

I'll stick my typical monthly market contributions, but I'm not touching the market with a 10 foot stick without a good 500-1k drop. It HEAVILY needs it. The reason why is because these gains are going on, but everything is mediocre.

 

[BoT]

What makes you say that? Sure markets aren't cheap. Maybe they are even a bit overvalued. But we could be at this level for years. I just don't see an obvious catalyst for a major downturn at this point. Nothing like all the subprime borrowing in 2007 at least.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...dence-in-profit-outlook-chart-of-the-day.html

The CAPE ratio, something people mention all the time, isn't even close to year 2000 levels. Nor is it past the cyclically adjustage 2007 levels. Stocks like GE and T, aren't even close to their 2007 highs, yet they have fewer shares outstanding and similar EPS. Sure they have packed on the debt, but at very low levels of interest.

Interest rates in bank accounts are still extremely low which means people need equities or bonds for income. In 2007 interest rates on CDs were 4- 5%. Today they are 1%. In 2007 the 10-year treasury return was 4.6%. Today its only 2.39%. Stocks paying > 3% yields still provide more return than those investments.

I am not saying that I agree with either but S&P over 2000? won't hold, can't hold .. not yet.
interest rates are still low, not much longer sustainable and the fed is signaling this already.
many stocks are well over-valued and over-bought but the overall volumes are low


I wouldn't go so far as calling it a bubble but trade with caution and be ready to pull out at any given time, even at a loss.
there is not much I would invest my money in for the long(er) term other then utilities.

 

[dighn]

meh. it's probably gonna have a correction soonish, but how soon? nobody can really tell. i'm not selling anything but not buying much either. though I still want to DCA b/c I don't really want to try to time the market.

 

[Imp]

I'm sticking to >4% dividends stocks/funds, so if it does dump, I at least get something out of it.

No idea how to properly value all these stocks and say what is "too high", but companies have been firing everyone, making people work crazy hours, sending jobs to India or Indians here, sitting on cash hordes... In the US of A, credit levels, last I heard, weren't outrageous. Canada is a different story. The jobs story sounds worse, people are in crazy debt, house prices are only "affordable" with the very low interest rates, construction makes up a big portion of the GDP... It's going to give.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dow 18600 by 12/31/14.

 

[BoT]

Dow 18600 by 12/31/14.

lmao, if that prediction would not only be true but also 100% reliable it would be hell of a lot more worth than a million bucks.

 

[JTsyo]

Dow 18600 by 12/31/14.

Thanks, going long.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm sticking to >4% dividends stocks/funds, so if it does dump, I at least get something out of it.

No idea how to properly value all these stocks and say what is "too high", but companies have been firing everyone, making people work crazy hours, sending jobs to India or Indians here, sitting on cash hordes... In the US of A, credit levels, last I heard, weren't outrageous. Canada is a different story. The jobs story sounds worse, people are in crazy debt, house prices are only "affordable" with the very low interest rates, construction makes up a big portion of the GDP... It's going to give.

Wait for the housing bubble to pop in NYC. That should be hilarious .... when all of Wall Street gets a taste of their own medicine.

 

[Mermaidman]

lmao, if that prediction would not only be true but also 100% reliable it would be hell of a lot more worth than a million bucks.

Look at his previous prediction. :hmm:

 

[Hugo Drax]

Prediction, the people waiting for a correction the last few years will eventually jump in. They would look back at all the lost gains and then decide to jump in at the peak.

Always happens.

 

[dighn]

Prediction, the people waiting for a correction the last few years will eventually jump in. They would look back at all the lost gains and then decide to jump in at the peak.

Always happens.

then they are scared of the market until the next peak.

 

[JTsyo]

Wait for the housing bubble to pop in NYC. That should be hilarious .... when all of Wall Street gets a taste of their own medicine.

Do most of them live in NYC or LI and Connecticut?

 

[brianmanahan]

lmao, if that prediction would not only be true but also 100% reliable it would be hell of a lot more worth than a million bucks.

that's the great thing about predictions - they're worthless

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Prediction, the people waiting for a correction the last few years will eventually jump in. They would look back at all the lost gains and then decide to jump in at the peak.

Always happens.

Yup. I have been having the same conversations for the last three to four years with so many of my clients.

Always starts out with them admitting they missed huge opportunities as they sat so they figure they will continue to wait until the next big correction and then finally jump in...

 

[JTsyo]

The S&P traded between a 6pt range yesterday (link is only good until market opens). I think we might have reached equilibrium.

Range 1,996.20 - 2,002.14

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Do most of them live in NYC or LI and Connecticut?

Most probably are not in NYC itself. I shouldn't have said what I said because I have a general dislike for people on Wall Street.

Actually, the whole NYC housing bubble is being fueled by speculators in other countries. I think primarily Chinese investors. 2000 sqft apartments in new towers going for $2 million. And half the units are not occupied.

 

[Michael]

Hard to say without knowing what your portfolio looks like or your risk tolerance. One I've been touting for some time is EVOL. It's a small cap and riskier than your typical widows and orphans dividend stocks like T or JNJ, but it has a unique market niche, has been growing revenues and income like crazy, and has a juicy dividend yield as the cherry on top.

I waited a few days and watched it and did a little basic research. Dividend looks basically safe and the company is niche but there is room to grow.

I picked up 1000 shares today, will monitor it for a little while.

I buy stocks for all sorts of different reasons. I recently bought UTSI because I know the new CFO and I am guessing he will help them do better. Sometimes when I am talking to sell side analysts, I ask them if they have any personal recommendations. Sometimes I just do a dividend screen and dig a little deeper. Many times I just buy an ETF.

Michael

 

[ponyo]

I waited a few days and watched it and did a little basic research. Dividend looks basically safe and the company is niche but there is room to grow.

I picked up 1000 shares today, will monitor it for a little while.

I buy stocks for all sorts of different reasons. I recently bought UTSI because I know the new CFO and I am guessing he will help them do better. Sometimes when I am talking to sell side analysts, I ask them if they have any personal recommendations. Sometimes I just do a dividend screen and dig a little deeper. Many times I just buy an ETF.

Michael

Hope you don't mind but I followed you in. I bought 500 shares as place holder. I just did quick look at their balance sheet and it looks clean. The dividend is nice. The small float and super thin trading volume does concern me but it's small cap. I'm going to research the company more before committing more capital but quick impression is positive.

 

[JTsyo]

P/E of 35 though. Does it have that much growth left? Especially if people are ditching cable.

 

[Hacp]

P/E of 35 though. Does it have that much growth left? Especially if people are ditching cable.

PEG is low. I didn't see any guidance for earnings, but from the information on Yahoo, it looks like its expected P/E is 15 at current prices for next year.

 

[BoT]

what do you guys think about Regency Energy Partners LP (RGP)?
I am thinking about sinking some money into this.

 

[Michael]

With the low yields the past few years and a shift to more of a growth story vs. pure yield, MLP's have done well the past few years. However, rising interest rates could start impacting the share price of MLP. The EU is still a basket case and the USA raising rates will drive the usd higher and make the USA less competitive. So pretty hard to call.

Michael

 

[BoT]

I like this one because it's a company that broke into the market with a broad portfolio. they had a great year. they won't be able to repeat that next year but it still will be good. I like that they rely fairly little on outside investments.

 

[Mermaidman]

Potential buying opportunity for AAPL tomorrow if the iCloud fuss causes a reactionary dip.

 

[Michael]

And now I have more cash to deploy so still looking for more ideas and opportunities. This is really a stock pickers market now vs. the last three years where the indexes just marched upwards.

Michael