***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[BoT]

if anybody has their hands on PBYI, drop it like it's hot
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/puma-biotechnology-inc-shareholder-alert-194200684.html

 

[Michael]

Good news for me is that I recently cashed in a position for a large gain.

The bad news is that I now have a bunch of cash sitting around earning very low interest.

Any ideas for stocks with reasonable dividend yields and a good chance of share price growth as well?

Michael

 

[Hacp]

I dont have any proof to back this up, but I too have suspected it for a long time now. It just makes too much sense. Imagine you get news of an impending merger. It's a sure thing. Let's say you had a frickin spy camera on a golf cart or something. Whatever, however, doesnt really matter. The point is it's inside info, it's clearly illegal. And if you trade on it, you're gonna get hosed eventually. But.... if you write an algo, one that waits until someone else puts in a big order, and then use your floor full of HFT computers to front run that order.... well that's a guaranteed win, and its perfectly legal. And because its a guaranteed win, you can apply massive amounts of leverage to it.

Unless someone knows your algo and writes a counteralgo to screw you.

 

[BoT]

Good news for me is that I recently cashed in a position for a large gain.

The bad news is that I now have a bunch of cash sitting around earning very low interest.

Any ideas for stocks with reasonable dividend yields and a good chance of share price growth as well?

Michael

Exxon (XOM) probably but I would keep my eye on it. Safer option is AT&T (T)

 

[Michael]

I already have a ton of each (have been buying Exxon in a DRIP since oil was $14 a barrel). I agree both a decent choices. T may be pressured a little as price competition is heating up. If I put another $500K into T, that means $25K a year of additional dividends.

I am looking down the dividends aristocrats list to see if anything there inspires me.

I also will be looking at covered call screeners as you can often construct high yield positions that way. Taxes are beter on dividends, though.

Michael

 

[Imp]

T is probably the best dividend stock I ever held. It went up and down 10%, but it always seemed to find its way back to my buy price of ~$35. Sold it a few months back and dumped it into a higher yield preferred shares ETF. Might head back to T -- the volatility is fun.

 

[Hugo Drax]

T is probably the best dividend stock I ever held. It went up and down 10%, but it always seemed to find its way back to my buy price of ~$35. Sold it a few months back and dumped it into a higher yield preferred shares ETF. Might head back to T -- the volatility is fun.

If you own T and you can sell some OTM/slightly OTM calls calls 3-4 months out (crossing x dividend date) if you want to get compensated for that volatility, instead of just owning a naked equity position and not get paid for vol.

you can either save the premium collected, or save it and use it to purchase additional stock when the price drops below a point, or use it to sell short a put option at a price you would buy additional T (cash from the call premium being used to help fund the cash secured put)

 

[Imp]

I don't have a margin account yet to do options, but I've been thinking of getting one just to screw around lately -- thought about it before, just never went through.

Need to properly learn options trading first though.

 

[Michael]

I routinely sell puts on T as I am perfectly happy with owning more and if the put does not get exercised I just pocket the premium. I am not a huge believer in pure margin trading (buying more equity borrowed on stock I own), but by selling the puts I use the margin created by my base position in T and get additional return (with the downside of maybe being put which I do not mind so much).

One position I have been considering was buying some more T and selling calls past an X-dividend date as Hugo was suggesting. Protects you from downside and you are highly likely to collect the dividend even if you do get called.

Michael

 

[jpiniero]

You'd think Exxon is going to have problems eventually due to the interest out there in electric cars and green tech.

 

[Michael]

Exxon has a deep management team and is very international. Electric cars are still ages away from being mainstream and most green tech effects coal, not oil.

Michael

 

[Michael]

If I look at two stocks I own now that have decent yields, I see the following over that past year:

S&P 500 +20.2% 1.88% yield

T +2.01%, 5.2% yield

HAS +13.11%, 3.2% yield

Plain vanilla S&P 500 index fund would have been the big winner the past year.

Article on Hasbro as a bonus predicting a 20% rise:

http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424127887324616904580099662158341670?mod=BOL_twm_fs

Michael

 

[Imp]

You'd think Exxon is going to have problems eventually due to the interest out there in electric cars and green tech.

They probably are invested in alternative forms of energy themselves. And any "green" tech probably won't filter down to developing countries for a long long time.

Oil sands I'm a bit more concerned about. Stuff is expensive to produce, carbon emissions are huge and it looks like carbon-related regulations are coming before we stop using oil.

 

[Michael]

An example covered call strategy for T

Buy T at $34.50, sell a Oct 18 $35 call at .41. That should be after the Ex-Div date. As long as the stock is below $35 on the option expiration date (55 days from now) you make an annualized 7.89% return on the option, plus the dividend. It also gives you .41 of downside protection.

Michael

 

[BoT]

for any day traders or frequent traders here, take a peek at Digital Ally (DGLY)
lots of movement here. if I know more about the company I would jump on it

 

[sm625]

Sorry for not posting my indicator reading for this rally. But I'm trying to retire in the next year or two so I didnt want to take any chances as far as influencing any market moves. It's probably just silliness but I had a lot riding on this one. At any rate here is the data:

2014-08-12      39.1 chg   28.3, score:   67.3 graph:   65.6 BUYIF
2014-08-13      56.5 chg   17.4, score:   73.9 graph:   74.2 BUY
2014-08-14      40.1 chg  -16.4, score:   23.8 graph:   72.0 BUY
2014-08-15      21.1 chg  -19.0, score:    2.1 graph:   66.3 BUY
2014-08-18       5.0 chg  -16.1, score:  -11.0 graph:   61.6 (sell in 22.4 days)
2014-08-19       5.7 chg    0.6, score:    6.3 graph:   61.2 (sell in 21.7 days)
2014-08-20      -2.3 chg   -8.0, score:  -10.3 graph:   57.7 (sell in 20.2 days)
2014-08-21       5.0 chg    7.3, score:   12.3 graph:   60.1 (sell in 19.7 days)
2014-08-22       0.2 chg   -4.8, score:   -4.6 graph:   58.0 (sell in 18.5 days)
2014-08-25       2.8 chg    2.6, score:    5.5 graph:   58.5 (sell in 17.8 days)
2014-08-26       2.8 chg   -0.1, score:    2.7 graph:   58.2 (sell in 16.9 days)

 

[glenn1]

Good news for me is that I recently cashed in a position for a large gain.

The bad news is that I now have a bunch of cash sitting around earning very low interest.

Any ideas for stocks with reasonable dividend yields and a good chance of share price growth as well?

Michael

Hard to say without knowing what your portfolio looks like or your risk tolerance. One I've been touting for some time is EVOL. It's a small cap and riskier than your typical widows and orphans dividend stocks like T or JNJ, but it has a unique market niche, has been growing revenues and income like crazy, and has a juicy dividend yield as the cherry on top.

 

[JEDI]

Hard to say without knowing what your portfolio looks like or your risk tolerance. One I've been touting for some time is EVOL. It's a small cap and riskier than your typical widows and orphans dividend stocks like T or JNJ, but it has a unique market niche, has been growing revenues and income like crazy, and has a juicy dividend yield as the cherry on top.

P/E = 36?!

 

[Imp]

An example covered call strategy for T

Buy T at $34.50, sell a Oct 18 $35 call at .41. That should be after the Ex-Div date. As long as the stock is below $35 on the option expiration date (55 days from now) you make an annualized 7.89% return on the option, plus the dividend. It also gives you .41 of downside protection.

Michael

Still barely makes sense to me. Every time I try to learn how options work, I lose interest... But I know there's money to be made and I want to try it out.

Ugh. Lazy.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Still barely makes sense to me. Every time I try to learn how options work, I lose interest... But I know there's money to be made and I want to try it out.

Ugh. Lazy.

You can start with just the basics of options, like buying a call/put, what strike price is, expiration date, etc. Then when you get comfortable with that, you dive into more complicated things like strategies, hedging, selling calls/puts.

I just recently starting buying a few options to get a feel for it and have picked up the basics fairly quickly. I'm sure there are plenty of members here who have lots of experience/knowledge with options.

 

[Mermaidman]

Good news for me is that I recently cashed in a position for a large gain.

The bad news is that I now have a bunch of cash sitting around earning very low interest.

Any ideas for stocks with reasonable dividend yields and a good chance of share price growth as well?

Michael

No growth, but fat dividend: Senior Housing

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Anyone else not touching this shit? I mean seriously, this bull market is fucking over and done. It's over roasted and over valued out the wazoo at this point.

 

[Imp]

You can start with just the basics of options, like buying a call/put, what strike price is, expiration date, etc. Then when you get comfortable with that, you dive into more complicated things like strategies, hedging, selling calls/puts.

I just recently starting buying a few options to get a feel for it and have picked up the basics fairly quickly. I'm sure there are plenty of members here who have lots of experience/knowledge with options.

I'm mainly interested in selling options, which may be evidence that I don't know what the hell I'm doing. Okay, time to do some actual research.

Anyone else not touching this shit? I mean seriously, this bull market is fucking over and done. It's over roasted and over valued out the wazoo at this point.

Part of me is pissing my pants expecting a major dump. Other part is telling me that I and others have been saying that for years -- it's only led to me missing a shit ton of gains.

Going to check some stuff out over the next month. Hope it doesn't dump before then? But my main goal is playing the Canadian dollar. I get the feeling that it is going to take a hardcore dump within the next year.

 

[KB]

Anyone else not touching this shit? I mean seriously, this bull market is fucking over and done. It's over roasted and over valued out the wazoo at this point.

What makes you say that? Sure markets aren't cheap. Maybe they are even a bit overvalued. But we could be at this level for years. I just don't see an obvious catalyst for a major downturn at this point. Nothing like all the subprime borrowing in 2007 at least.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...dence-in-profit-outlook-chart-of-the-day.html

The CAPE ratio, something people mention all the time, isn't even close to year 2000 levels. Nor is it past the cyclically adjustage 2007 levels. Stocks like GE and T, aren't even close to their 2007 highs, yet they have fewer shares outstanding and similar EPS. Sure they have packed on the debt, but at very low levels of interest.

Interest rates in bank accounts are still extremely low which means people need equities or bonds for income. In 2007 interest rates on CDs were 4- 5%. Today they are 1%. In 2007 the 10-year treasury return was 4.6%. Today its only 2.39%. Stocks paying > 3% yields still provide more return than those investments.

 

[Hugo Drax]

I bought a special OTC call option for 2 dollars that would pay out 80 million if the option is in the money.

it is a european style OTC binary option.