***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

GRPN momentum play. $8 looming?

 

[Schfifty Five]

Potential buying opportunity for AAPL tomorrow if the iCloud fuss causes a reactionary dip.

Looks like you were off a day, as AAPL is tanking hard today.

Ugh, it took weeks to climb up just a few dollars from $100 and now it's all gone in a matter of minutes. What a joke!

 

[glenn1]

I waited a few days and watched it and did a little basic research. Dividend looks basically safe and the company is niche but there is room to grow.

I picked up 1000 shares today, will monitor it for a little while.

I buy stocks for all sorts of different reasons. I recently bought UTSI because I know the new CFO and I am guessing he will help them do better. Sometimes when I am talking to sell side analysts, I ask them if they have any personal recommendations. Sometimes I just do a dividend screen and dig a little deeper. Many times I just buy an ETF.

Michael

Cool, welcome fellow shareholder. BTW, if anyone else is doing due diligence on this company make sure you account for the special dividends of $2.00 and $1.70 in January and May of 2012 respectively when you look at the stock price charts.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Potential buying opportunity for AAPL tomorrow if the iCloud fuss causes a reactionary dip.

I love how the Apple PR team handled this. They act like their systems were fine and that they were targeted attacks.

Yes, they were targeted attacks. And the root cause of failure was the fact that Apple's servers had no brute force attack detection which is Security 101. Pathetic.

 

[sm625]

2014-08-12      39.1 chg   28.3, score:   67.3 graph:   65.6 BUYIF
2014-08-13      56.5 chg   17.4, score:   73.9 graph:   74.2 BUY
2014-08-14      40.1 chg  -16.4, score:   23.8 graph:   72.0 BUY
2014-08-15      21.1 chg  -19.0, score:    2.1 graph:   66.3 BUY
2014-08-18       5.0 chg  -16.1, score:  -11.0 graph:   61.6 (sell in 22.4 days)
2014-08-19       5.7 chg    0.6, score:    6.3 graph:   61.2 (sell in 21.7 days)
2014-08-20      -2.3 chg   -8.0, score:  -10.3 graph:   57.7 (sell in 20.2 days)
2014-08-21       5.0 chg    7.3, score:   12.3 graph:   60.1 (sell in 19.7 days)
2014-08-22       0.2 chg   -4.8, score:   -4.6 graph:   58.0 (sell in 18.5 days)
2014-08-25       2.8 chg    2.6, score:    5.5 graph:   58.5 (sell in 17.8 days)
2014-08-26       2.4 chg   -0.5, score:    1.9 graph:   58.1 (sell in 16.8 days)
2014-08-27      -4.4 chg   -6.8, score:  -11.2 graph:   55.0 (sell in 15.4 days)
2014-08-28     -13.1 chg   -8.7, score:  -21.8 graph:   50.9 (sell in 13.5 days)
2014-08-29     -25.1 chg  -11.9, score:  -37.0 graph:   45.4 (sell in 10.9 days)
2014-09-02     -40.3 chg  -15.3, score:  -55.6 graph:   38.2 (sell in 7.6 days)
2014-09-03     -54.3 chg  -14.0, score:  -68.2 graph:   31.3 (sell in 3.8 days)

Looks like we are rapidly closing in on a resolution to this trade. Note that bearish signals can reduce the hold period, but only a BUY signal can increase it.

 

[BoT]

missed the train on DGLY, I hope it's not to late for ACHN

 

[JTsyo]

Looks like CVS might see some growth with their move into offering RNs at the stores. Stock is already at an all-time high but looks like it might still have some legs under it.

 

[BoT]

AAPL down 4.22%, falling below $100 .. ouch

 

[sm625]

HYG and JNK broke down today. My indicator generated its automated sell signal today, as expected. Only the fools are long now.

2014-09-02     -40.3 chg  -15.3, score:  -55.6 graph:   38.2 (sell in 7.6 days)
2014-09-03     -50.5 chg  -10.1, score:  -60.6 graph:   32.9 (sell in 4.1 days)
2014-09-04     -81.8 chg  -31.4, score: -113.2 graph:   18.9 SELL

I would expect the S&P to be under 1955 before sept OPEX.

 

[brianmanahan]

Only the fools are long now.

im long 30 years /shrug

 

[JEDI]

HYG and JNK broke down today. My indicator generated its automated sell signal today, as expected. Only the fools are long now.

2014-09-02     -40.3 chg  -15.3, score:  -55.6 graph:   38.2 (sell in 7.6 days)
2014-09-03     -50.5 chg  -10.1, score:  -60.6 graph:   32.9 (sell in 4.1 days)
2014-09-04     -81.8 chg  -31.4, score: -113.2 graph:   18.9 SELL

I would expect the S&P to be under 1955 before sept OPEX.

what is this indicator of yours?
How are the buy and sell signals created?

 

[sm625]

what is this indicator of yours?
How are the buy and sell signals created?

It's something I spent 5 years working on. It uses the value of a certain sector ETF, the S&P 500, and the volatility index and performs some calculus on their ratios to determine a score. The math is complex enough that it requires roughly 25 milliseconds per day to perform the calculations (on an i7 cpu). Using several years of backtesting data, I created an algorithm for determining what pattern of values should trigger a buy signal. The sell signal is based primarily on a standard weeklong hold period for each buy signal. But the sell signals are also influenced by an algorithm that reduces the hold period as the incoming scores go negative. As was the case this week. Rapid deterioration of market conditions should cause even the longest trades to exit. July 2011 was a perfect example:

2011-07-18       0.6 chg   29.2, score:   29.8 graph:   78.2 (sell in 67.0 days)
2011-07-19     -11.5 chg  -12.0, score:  -23.5 graph:   72.2 (sell in 61.1 days)
2011-07-20     -18.2 chg   -6.7, score:  -24.9 graph:   67.2 (sell in 54.0 days)
2011-07-21     -28.7 chg  -10.6, score:  -39.3 graph:   60.1 (sell in 45.4 days)
2011-07-22     -34.6 chg   -5.8, score:  -40.4 graph:   54.3 (sell in 35.7 days)
2011-07-24     -34.9 chg   -0.3, score:  -35.2 graph:   50.3 (sell in 25.2 days)
2011-07-26     -81.2 chg  -46.4, score: -127.6 graph:   27.6 SELL

Hold time was reduced from 35 trading days to 0 in just two days of deteriorating market conditions. A crash immediately followed.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Markets lose all gains for today and cross into the red on the news of Joan Rivers death.

 

[JEDI]

Markets lose all gains for today and cross into the red on the news of Joan Rivers death.

RIP that ageless beauty.
hope they send the assassin that killed her to the death chamber

 

[Imp]

Took a dump around 2 or 3pm.

FML. Told myself to sell a huge position last week at a small loss because it looked like a dive was coming, didn't. The dive came!

 

[Icecold]

Anybody have any thoughts on buying into BP now that it dropped to ~$49 a share?

BP went down 5.91% today so that was not a good recommendation.

 

[jpiniero]

Funny how Wall Street went on a buying spree after the poor August job numbers came out. They really are addicted to the pumping and think the bad numbers will help their cause to keep it going.

 

[KB]

BP went down 5.91% today so that was not a good recommendation.

I took a gamble on BP at 48 thinking there was no way they had enough evidence to prove gross negligence. Although I am sure BP was negligent the burden of proof for proving it is very steep. Had it gone the other way BP would be up 6%. Sadly I was wrong, but I am holding for now. The stock pays 5% yield and they will appeal the ruling until they get the one they want. This will drag out for years while I get paid to wait. Exxon didn't pay out for the Valdez for 20 years so 20 years of dividends will add up.

 

[Icecold]

I took a gamble on BP at 48 thinking there was no way they had enough evidence to prove gross negligence. Although I am sure BP was negligent the burden of proof for proving it is very steep. Had it gone the other way BP would be up 6%. Sadly I was wrong, but I am holding for now. The stock pays 5% yield and they will appeal the ruling until they get the one they want. This will drag out for years while I get paid to wait. Exxon didn't pay out for the Valdez for 20 years so 20 years of dividends will add up.

I jumped in around the same time and intend to hold onto it for awhile. I also purchased additional shares when it dropped hard on Thursday(though less shares than my initial purchase).

 

[ponyo]

I took a gamble on BP at 48 thinking there was no way they had enough evidence to prove gross negligence. Although I am sure BP was negligent the burden of proof for proving it is very steep. Had it gone the other way BP would be up 6%. Sadly I was wrong, but I am holding for now. The stock pays 5% yield and they will appeal the ruling until they get the one they want. This will drag out for years while I get paid to wait. Exxon didn't pay out for the Valdez for 20 years so 20 years of dividends will add up.

How safe is that dividend? That's my big concern. I'm eyeing BP as I'm interested in the dividend but I read the management only set aside like $3 billion for damages. If the damages are $17+ billion like the news stories suggest, the dividend could get cut. I don't mind waiting for rebound in stock price while collecting fat dividend if I know the dividend is safe. I bought Merck shares after the market gave the stock 50% haircut after the Vioxx drug lawsuits back in 2004. I bought it mainly for the dividend and for the past 10 years I've collected the juicy 5% dividend while watching the stock rebound and more than double. I'm willing to do the same with BP but I'm not as sure the dividend is as safe. I might start scaling in at low 40s/ high 30s but right now I feel BP has room to fall further.

 

[Michael]

I think BP's dividend would be at risk, but there will be a lengthy appeal as well. If the judgement is held up, then they need to get the cash from somewhere. The cannot pay all the fines, the dividend, and continue to grow. The can maintain the dividend, but at the expense of future growth which long range damages the dividend as well.

Michael

 

[KB]

How safe is that dividend? That's my big concern. I'm eyeing BP as I'm interested in the dividend but I read the management only set aside like $3 billion for damages. If the damages are $17+ billion like the news stories suggest, the dividend could get cut. I don't mind waiting for rebound in stock price while collecting fat dividend if I know the dividend is safe. I bought Merck shares after the market gave the stock 50% haircut after the Vioxx drug lawsuits back in 2004. I bought it mainly for the dividend and for the past 10 years I've collected the juicy 5% dividend while watching the stock rebound and more than double. I'm willing to do the same with BP but I'm not as sure the dividend is as safe. I might start scaling in at low 40s/ high 30s but right now I feel BP has room to fall further.

It would definitely hurt the future growth of the dividend. Whether we see a cut is up in the air.
According to their balance sheet they have 27 billion in cash. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BP+Key+Statistics

This is more than enough to pay the fine. They are not highly leveraged so they could borrow a portion of it too. Problem is buying oil rights is expensive so it would certainly reduce future growth. I am still betting on a win on appeal. Maybe when a republican is president.

 

[ponyo]

It would definitely hurt the future growth of the dividend. Whether we see a cut is up in the air.
According to their balance sheet they have 27 billion in cash. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BP+Key+Statistics

This is more than enough to pay the fine. They are not highly leveraged so they could borrow a portion of it too. Problem is buying oil rights is expensive so it would certainly reduce future growth. I am still betting on a win on appeal. Maybe when a republican is president.

I suspect the dividend is safe short term and appeal should last years. I just think BP shares didn't get big enough haircut on the news and benefited from the market being near all time high. In a different market climate, that kind of negative news might have caused immediate 20-30% decline. I would feel better buying in that situation. I'll stick with watching from the sideline for now.

 

[ponyo]

Opinions on Marvell Technology? Company has clean balance sheet and it pays small dividend which is rare for tech company its size. Greenlight Capital seems to own large number of shares. Company seems to be in all the right areas for future growth like wireless SOC, storage, and networking and should benefit from increased home/business/auto automation.

 

[Michael]

MRVL lost a big IP case recently and they have some solid products but no real catalyst to break out from where they are now. The dividend is nice, but I think there are many other semiconductor companies that can grow more that are also reasonably valued.

Michael