***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[Michael]

Closing comments after the DB tech conference from their analyst:

"* Demand stays slow and steady, with few signs of cyclical peak

Semi companies aired a largely bullish tone at our 2014 DB Technology Conference, anticipating slow and steady growth to continue in 2H14/2015 with very few signs of weakness discussed. In general, companies remained constructive, a tone similar to a year ago. However, investors struck a much more cautious tone, fearing a repeat of last year’s 4Q softness (a dynamic highlighted in our Tech Conf preview). In total, we still would not be surprised to see below-consensus 4Q guides, and we therefore maintain our Neutral view on the semi group, holding selectivity paramount."

Michael

 

[JEDI]

today:
dow up a little
s&p down a little
Nasdaq down BIG (1%) -> WTF?!

 

[BoT]

seems to me like everybody is pooling funds together for the BABA ipo

 

[Michael]

Taiwan tech data points shows weaker than normal 2nd half so far (from Baird);

"Baird/Gerra: Taiwan Monthly - September 2014 - Industry Monthly
We compiled August sales for 300 Taiwan-based technology companies,
representing over NT$1.34 trillion (US$44.9 billion) in monthly
revenues. Key points:

* Aggregated revenue increased 2% MoM in August, below the 10-year
average of up 4% MoM and the second consecutive below-seasonal
month.

* July-August versus April-May, aggregated revenue was up 2%, well
below the 10-year average of up 9%.

* Well above seasonal MoM: Catcher, HTC, Gemtek

* Well below seasonal MoM: WorldPeace, Zenitron, Synnex, SPIL,
Kinsus, Mediatek, Asus, Elitegroup, Gigabyte, Lite-On, Wintek,
Inotera

* Tier-one notebook ODM units increased 7% MoM, and were up 3% YTD
YoY."

Michael

Ps - I think sell off is to raise cash for Alibaba

 

[BoT]

very optimistic this mornin

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

very optimistic this mornin

Obviously came from the FED meeting with the simple 4 words "No hike till 2016"

 

[FelixDeCat]

Get ready to buy puts. Lots of puts on the QQQs.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Get ready to buy puts. Lots of puts on the QQQs.

Buy puts? QQQs? Explain preeze?



Also, anyone adventurous about investing in the first marijuana company ballsy enough to go public? Honestly, you have to just imagine a Phillip Morris coming out of weed at some point.... oh god that would be juicy to get in on it before it's big :hmm:

 

[BoT]

$250 Mil and 9k puts can push like this.

http://www.finviz.com/publish/091714/AUXLc1dl1907.png

~ $9Mil gain with a couple of phone calls

 

[FelixDeCat]

Buy puts? QQQs? Explain preeze?



Also, anyone adventurous about investing in the first marijuana company ballsy enough to go public? Honestly, you have to just imagine a Phillip Morris coming out of weed at some point.... oh god that would be juicy to get in on it before it's big :hmm:

Or short the Chinese solars. They are due for a nice pull back.

 

[Michael]

Or short the Chinese solars. They are due for a nice pull back.

Which one do you think is the best candidate to short?

Michael

 

[sm625]

I'm reading some extremely bearish signals for INTC, KRFT, and a few other major stocks. AMD as well. I feel confident enough to consider this a crash warning. But there is so much strength in other stocks it is mind boggling. Dupont just blew out its chart this week. Up nearly 10 percent on basically nothing. There is a lot of instability in the market that just isnt showing in a chart of SPX. Be very wary...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm reading some extremely bearish signals for INTC, KRFT, and a few other major stocks. AMD as well. I feel confident enough to consider this a crash warning. But there is so much strength in other stocks it is mind boggling. Dupont just blew out its chart this week. Up nearly 10 percent on basically nothing. There is a lot of instability in the market that just isnt showing in a chart of SPX. Be very wary...

Inyet stocks are up .5% already today across the board... fucking nuts.

 

[JEDI]

hm.. why are REITs dropping lately despite the dow/nasdaq/S&P growing?

good time to buy?

 

[brianmanahan]

hm.. why are REITs dropping lately despite the dow/nasdaq/S&P growing?

good time to buy?

sensitivity to interest rate increases, plus their leverage

given the outperformance they had over the past few years plus the expectation of further rising rates, i wouldn't think it would be a good time to buy if you are short-term speculating. then again, i was thinking that at the beginning of the year and they have done swimmingly.

shows how much i know, lol

i just hold REITs just to meet my long-term asset allocation (%10 of all my equities are in REITs). i do this regardless of their price.

 

[JEDI]

sensitivity to interest rate increases, plus their leverage

given the outperformance they had over the past few years plus the expectation of further rising rates, i wouldn't think it would be a good time to buy if you are short-term speculating. then again, i was thinking that at the beginning of the year and they have done swimmingly.

shows how much i know, lol

i just hold REITs just to meet my long-term asset allocation (%10 of all my equities are in REITs). i do this regardless of their price.

hm.. reits didn't grow that much last year? (or at least mines didn't, SCHH)

 

[brianmanahan]

hm.. reits didn't grow that much last year? (or at least mines didn't, SCHH)

yeah thats true they didnt do as well last year, but have done quite a bit better than total market this year, and even more since the low point of 08/09.

since march 9 2009, VTSMX (total US market index) has increase %230 and VGSIX (US REIT index) has increased %330.

thats precisely why i keep them around - even though they are volatile, they differ enough from total market so that overall fluctuation is reduced somewhat. and if i get lucky it may even increase return a little over the next 30 years.

 

[Attic]

What are you guys doing to hedge against downturn if anything other than diversifying?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Well tomorrow should be loads of fun. Quadruple witching day AND Alibaba. I hate my job some days.....

 

[brianmanahan]

What are you guys doing to hedge against downturn if anything other than diversifying?

not much other than diversifying

i do buy I Bonds every year for saving for home down payment plus other stuff, but havent spent it in years and kinda decided to keep renting. so if there is a big enough market drop, i might cash some of those I Bonds out and buy more stocks instead of rebalancing from bonds

 

[brianmanahan]

Well tomorrow should be loads of fun. Quadruple witching day AND Alibaba. I hate my job some days.....

what about that makes it hard? honest question

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Well tomorrow should be loads of fun. Quadruple witching day AND Alibaba. I hate my job some days.....

What is your job exactly? Live trading?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

what about that makes it hard? honest question

Increased volume and volatility with the expiry of all the different options and futures contracts expiring plus the interest in BABA.

Options expiry days sucks any month but on the quarters it can be brutal. And to be honest about all I've talked about with any investor the last week is Alibaba. I'm just hoping it goes better than the FB IPO but if a fast market is declared it sucks to be on the broker side.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

What is your job exactly? Live trading?

Broker. I'll be entering trades all day.

 

[Michael]

BABA range is $82 - $85 right now, not open yet.

Now $84 - $87.

$87 - $89.

$90 - $91. Range is narrowing, I assume it will open soon.

At this level, the bankers left too much on the table and should have made sure the company got more.

$92 - $93

Michael