***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
Shipping rates have plummeted 10% in the past week, yet Dryships stock remains steady at $3?!

What plus side am I missing?
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Shipping rates have plummeted 10% in the past week, yet Dryships stock remains steady at $3?!

What plus side am I missing?

Maybe they have long-term contract rates locked in. Or perhaps an optimal ship-type mix for current conditions (Cape size vs. Super Max, etc.). The bulk shippers don't always track the Baltic Dry Index precisely.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,032
1,132
126
The flight being shot down over Ukraine and then Israel moving in ground forces really put a damper at the end of the day.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
The flight being shot down over Ukraine and then Israel moving in ground forces really put a damper at the end of the day.

should have shorted the market when I heard a plane might have been shot down.
tommorws going to be a blood bath
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
Bah, I bought in a week or two too early.

lucky me.. I sold 90% of my speculative stocks 2weeks ago when the dow broke 17000.
"sell when EVERYONE is buying"

now what to buy during tomorrows bloodbath...
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
lucky me.. I sold 90% of my speculative stocks 2weeks ago when the dow broke 17000.
"sell when EVERYONE is buying"

now what to buy during tomorrows bloodbath...

Most.. ALL of my US based holdings are preferred ETFs paying north of 6%, so nothing to sell.

My Canadian stuff mostly individual stocks. Wow, I effed all that crap up.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
lucky me.. I sold 90% of my speculative stocks 2weeks ago when the dow broke 17000.
"sell when EVERYONE is buying"

now what to buy during tomorrows bloodbath...

guess I was wrong.. opened pretty positive (+1/2 %)
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Which ETFs?

Look up PFF and you'll find a bunch of related ones. Not sure if it's actually north of 6% because it was only 5.5% last year, and there was a larger than usual distribution at the beginning of the year, so it may be skewing the numbers.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
6.56% yield. counts as long term capital gains?
http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=pff

pff= 1 star :eek:
ouch!

Preferreds typically return less than normal stocks, but they pay out higher income. This is probebly why it has 1 star.



There is a bit of a negative effect on preferreds in a rising interest environment so I would be hesitant to have a large position in it if you don't need the income.

http://www.blackrockblog.com/2013/04/25/the-effects-of-rising-interest-rates-on-preferred-stocks/

That said its still hard to predict when the rates will actually rise.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
now what to buy during tomorrows bloodbath...

No bloodbath, but how about VLO? Down 15% or so recently on the fears about opening export restrictions on distillates, which is a non-factor IMHO. Plus it's a decent SHTF stock in case the Israel thing really gets out of hand.
 

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
It looks like Ackman's herbalife gambit failed. I'm betting someone must have made a boatload if he had bought some weeklong options at the dip.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay...

BCE is privatizing BA, which I own some of. So, never been through an acquisition/merger: how the hell does this work? Do my shares disappear at some point and I get what they're buying people out for? Or should I sell now while it's slightly above the buy-out price?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...-privatize-region-telecom-affiliate-1.2715220

From bloomberg:

Bell Aliant shareholders can elect to receive C$31 in cash or 0.6371 of a BCE share, subject to a 25 percent cash cap on the offer. Investors can also take C$7.75 in cash and 0.4778 of a BCE share. The tender offer will start in mid-August, and the deal is expected to close by Nov. 30. Bell Aliant’s board is recommending that shareholders accept the offer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/bce-buys-rest-of-bell-aliant-for-3-7-billion.html

You get to pick what you want. If the price of the stock is already over the value of the buyout price, its because investors are now pricing Bell Aliant stock based on the stock price of BCE, since you can trade your shares for shares of BCE soon. If BCE goes up so will Bell Aliant andvice versa. I would sell now if you don't want to have to own any BCE shares in the future.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
I found those details in articles on my brokerage and did the math based on the compensation. Yep, the share price was almost an exact copy of the cash + current BCE share price. Decided to just ditch it to avoid having to go through any of the paperwork.

Wouldn't have minded the BCE shares, but I was, and still am, overexposed in telecom and didn't want anymore. It's kind of a shame because BA had a nice 7% dividend when I bought in -- dropped a bit now due to share price increase.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
2 uses for Put options

I thought I would share the two ways I routinely use Put options. This post will describe using them as a means to purchase shares. A second is an expansion on the idea where I use them to generate income.

A put option is the right to sell shares at a set price by an expiration date. If you own a put, you can sell certain shares at a set price. If you sell a put option, someone can make you buy shares at a set price. You typically need additional rights given by your brokerage to buy options and even more to sell options (uncovered). If you sell options - uncovered, you use a form of margin (but are not charged an interest fee).

It is not uncommon in this thread (and ones in the years before) for people to say that they like XXX stock but they think the price is too high. That happens to me reasonably often as well where I think market momentum has pushed a price temporarily higher than what I think is a good entry point. I have done the work and like the stock but not the price.

Now, I could just wait and see if the price goes lower, but there is a better way to handle this. That is selling a put option on the stock.

Let me give a live example. Let us say we like Apple. Apple is now at $97.03. We think that is too high. I would then look at put pricing. For Sept 20 puts, strike of $95 is $2.50 now and $97.5 is $3.75. Nov 22 puts are $4.65 and $6 for the same puts.

There are two potential scenarios that will happen. The first is that the shares will not go below $95 or will rise above $97.5 in the time defined by the put expiration. The second is that the price will fall below $95 or not rise above $97.5

Assume we want to buy 1000 shares so we sell 10 put options (each option represents 100 shares - can change if something like a split happens, but normally 100 shares).

Sept 95 = $2,500 received (2.6% of current price) (net price $92.5)
Sept 97.5 = $3,750 received (3.7% of current price) (net price 93.75)

Nov 95 = $4,650 received (4.8% of current price) (net price $90.35)
Nov 97.5 = $6,000 received (6.2% of current price) (net price $91.5)

Let us say option 1 happens. That means even though you think the stock is overpriced, the market did not agree in the time before the options expired. You make money as the options expired worthless and you can do the same trade if you still like the stock. Since you had decided not to buy, you can either look at the % of the current price and the closing price and kick yourself if it went up more, or you can do what I do and just congratulate yourself for the "free" money.

If the price closes below the strike, you will get put (you can always buy the option back and close your position before the put happens and probably take a loss on the option trade). In that case, you bought the stock at the lower price as showed above. As long as that price was "fair" in your eyes when you made the transaction, and you would have bought, then you were right that the market overvalued the shares and you got the shares at a better price.

The real risk is the leverage the option gives you and a sharp fall may cause margin problems. Otherwise, if you can afford to get put, the risk is not much different than owning the stock.

Michael
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
I decided to look up that crazy REIT with a 15% distribution, ARR, and it's still around. Anyone have the 4-1-1 on it?
 

Icecold

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2004
1,148
1,096
146
Anybody have any thoughts on buying into BP now that it dropped to ~$49 a share?
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Here's a recap of the last couple months according to my indicator:

Code:
2014-06-10     -26.5 chg    1.5, score:  -25.0 graph:   40.4 SELL
2014-06-11     -56.8 chg  -30.3, score:  -87.2 graph:   27.3
2014-06-12     -63.8 chg   -7.0, score:  -70.8 graph:   24.5
2014-06-13     -73.3 chg   -9.5, score:  -82.8 graph:   20.7
2014-06-16     -70.5 chg    2.7, score:  -67.8 graph:   21.8
2014-06-17     -60.4 chg   10.1, score:  -50.3 graph:   25.8
2014-06-18     -17.3 chg   43.2, score:   25.9 graph:   43.1
2014-06-19      -0.9 chg   16.4, score:   15.5 graph:   49.7
2014-06-20      -5.8 chg   -5.0, score:  -10.8 graph:   47.7
2014-06-23     -24.1 chg  -18.3, score:  -42.4 graph:   40.4
2014-06-24     -45.6 chg  -21.5, score:  -67.2 graph:   31.7
2014-06-25     -60.1 chg  -14.5, score:  -74.6 graph:   25.9
2014-06-26     -58.9 chg    1.3, score:  -57.6 graph:   26.4
2014-06-27     -50.9 chg    8.0, score:  -42.9 graph:   29.6
2014-06-30     -53.7 chg   -2.7, score:  -56.4 graph:   28.5
2014-07-01     -26.6 chg   27.1, score:    0.5 graph:   39.4
2014-07-02     -15.4 chg   11.2, score:   -4.3 graph:   43.8
2014-07-03      -6.1 chg    9.3, score:    3.2 graph:   47.6
2014-07-07     -31.3 chg  -25.2, score:  -56.5 graph:   37.5
2014-07-08     -43.6 chg  -12.3, score:  -55.9 graph:   32.6
2014-07-09     -54.4 chg  -10.8, score:  -65.1 graph:   28.3
2014-07-10     -56.4 chg   -2.0, score:  -58.4 graph:   27.4
2014-07-11     -61.5 chg   -5.1, score:  -66.6 graph:   25.4
2014-07-14     -58.2 chg    3.3, score:  -54.9 graph:   26.7
2014-07-15     -66.5 chg   -8.3, score:  -74.7 graph:   23.4
2014-07-16     -59.1 chg    7.4, score:  -51.7 graph:   26.4
2014-07-17      -6.0 chg   53.1, score:   47.0 graph:   47.6
2014-07-18     -25.5 chg  -19.5, score:  -45.0 graph:   39.8
2014-07-21     -37.8 chg  -12.3, score:  -50.1 graph:   34.9
2014-07-22     -68.9 chg  -31.1, score: -100.0 graph:   22.4
2014-07-23     -35.5 chg   33.3, score:   -2.2 graph:   35.8
2014-07-24     -35.9 chg   -0.3, score:  -36.2 graph:   35.6
2014-07-25     -37.5 chg   -1.6, score:  -39.2 graph:   35.0
2014-07-28     -35.5 chg    2.1, score:  -33.4 graph:   35.8
2014-07-29     -23.2 chg   12.3, score:  -10.9 graph:   40.7
2014-07-30     -15.7 chg    7.5, score:   -8.3 graph:   43.7
2014-07-31      -8.0 chg    7.7, score:   -0.3 graph:   46.8

With today's action the market is basically flat since mid June. The -100 score on 7/22 was basically a crash warning. It certainly was disheartening to watch the market levitate for so long given such horrendous readings. But I been doing this long enough now that it didnt surprise me. For the month of July my indicator has been impeccable since its inception in 2010.