***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[bookem dano]

Question on AMD/nVidia...anyone think it'll get a boost when the next wave of game counsels come out?

 

[FelixDeCat]

14

 

[rcpratt]

Anybody playing the iPhone announcement? I'm all cash right now...

 

[woodman1999]

I'm still holding my Apple shares with a c/b of $354. I see no reason to sell at this point, even if the new iPhone isn't all it's cracked up to be.

 

[zimu]

I'm still holding my Apple shares with a c/b of $354. I see no reason to sell at this point, even if the new iPhone isn't all it's cracked up to be.

You mean "Even WHEN the new iPhone isn't...."

 

[jpiniero]

I'm skeptical Apple can sell enough iPhone 5s to satisfy Wall Street.

 

[rcpratt]

Gonna play it short for a day or two, @$666.

 

[richardycc]

Wouldn't it be fun if Tim Cook drops the Iphone 5 during the presentation and the Iphone breaks into pieces.

 

[KB]

Anybody playing the iPhone announcement? I'm all cash right now...

Nope, not buying AAPL. Too expensive and I think iPhone 5 is priced in.

Sold about 40% of positions. Not sure QEIII will live up to the hype. I keep reading QEIII is priced in, so if QEIII doesn't appease wallstreet, then I don't want to be all in.

 

[Imp]

QE3: yes or no, tomorrow?

I'm perma bear, so obvious no. Hoping for a no for a quick panic sell-off, so I can get back in at saner prices.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I don't think anyone is expecting QE3.

 

[Imp]

Analysts appear split. Among the more reasonable views (that match mine...) I've seen, they say it doesn't make sense since conditions are not that bad, and QE3 now would set the bar for stimulus/intervention too high.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Borrowing money is stupid therefore QE3 is stupid. Especially when the fed owns so much debt to begin with.

High interest rates are not the problem. Opportunities are the problem. They cannot be forced. Those that try have a good chance at failing with that borrowed money and go bankrupt anyway. (Hello! Solindra!)

Rates are effectively near zero already. Spending billions to artificially inflate it even closer to zero is stupid.

This is a gimmick to help the government go even deeper into debt than it already is. Everyone knows my position that America is going to default one day. We will never repay anything we have borrowed and will borrow until we cant borrow anymore. Then we will default, forcing American currency to fall to 20-50% of face value. At that point new currency will be issued, the old can be exchanged and we repeat the reckless cycle all over again. :thumbsdown:

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Meow,

Don't foget that there is a systemic risk in housing still. Every day that passes eleviates some of the risk, but if housing prices start falling again, it could have acompounding effect with detrimental effects to the economy as a whole.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Meow,

Don't foget that there is a systemic risk in housing still. Every day that passes eleviates some of the risk, but if housing prices start falling again, it could have acompounding effect with detrimental effects to the economy as a whole.

That reminds me of people who still drink alcohol. I quit drinking completely back in 2008. We need to quit borrowing money. Its time to belly up now before our BAC kills us.

There will always be a reason to borrow. Lowering rates .00001 percent for BILLION$ is not a good investment and sets more precent for future imprudent spending that will leave us ill prepared for the next Hurricane Katrina, a Haiti style 9.0 earthquake on the San Andreas fault etc. We are too broke to afford this artificial move.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QE3 announcement now has been made....

At least they are buying mortgage bonds, which is just really taking on the role of FHLMC/FNMA which they are going to fold anyway.

Overall, they are assets and serve a purpose by providing liquidity to the mortgage market which makes sense. HOWEVER we shoud bring this to an end at some point so we have some dry powder for real emergencies and disasters.

 

[Imp]

Hmmm.. should I buy some bank stocks, or just stay out?

I almost see an initial pop, then a total "OMFG, if Fed do da stimulus, economy si fuxxorz, so I taking ma money out" crash.

 

[Imp]

Okay, markets do not look happy. News about Fed action is pretty scarce since it was only just announced. Markets don't appear to be reacting well - there was a minor surge up (Dow +80 pts on day), but now it's receding.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...illion-in-mortgage-securities-each-month.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

LOL

 

[Hugo Drax]

QE3 announcement now has been made....

At least they are buying mortgage bonds, which is just really taking on the role of FHLMC/FNMA which they are going to fold anyway.

Overall, they are assets and serve a purpose by providing liquidity to the mortgage market which makes sense. HOWEVER we shoud bring this to an end at some point so we have some dry powder for real emergencies and disasters.

FED can print dollars as needed, So there is an unlimited supply of dry powder.

 

[KB]

Looks like the markets do like QEIII even though I don't think QEIII will help too much.

I am glad I didn't sell 100%, but this makes getting back in very difficult. Q3 earnings reports should be low as many companies have lowered expectations. Here's hoping it creates a new entry point.

 

[Imp]

I'm going to throw a bit in around 3:30pm and hold the rest out. A bit meaning being able to take a 50% loss and still be ahead on the year. I just don't like what I see, even though I'm wrong most of the time.

 

[7window]

being 80% equities and have dry powder on the side anyone want to guess how long this qe3 will lift the market

 

[Imp]

QE3 probably priced in, but ongoing QE3 might be pretty helpful. On the otherhand, the markets are already at/above the highs after QE1 and QE2. Europe still in shit despite promise to buy bonds, Greece still effed, China in worse shape than when QE1 and QE2 hit, etc.

Got my fingers crossed on the latter. Not because it's good for people, but because that will let me re-enter when people panic and oversell.

 

[FelixDeCat]

being 80% equities and have dry powder on the side anyone want to guess how long this qe3 will lift the market

21 December 2012