***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[chusteczka]

Just to be clear:
I'm not bearish. But I'm also not going "goo goo gaa gaa" like the market is today.
In conclusion, I'm not bearish but I'm also not bullish like I was a year ago.

If a bearish person wants to sell stocks and buy bonds or gold with their proceeds, that's up to them.

I wasn't thinking you were. I am borderline bearish at the moment and something about what you said just clicked.

 

[Corporate Thug]

I don't completely understand the ramifications of a trust, so for this reason I am avoiding it. Plus this article may scare people away.

http://moneymorning.com/2012/08/08/dividend-stocks-dont-fall-for-these-high-yield-traps/

"However one analyst, Shane Blackmon, has assumed an oil price of $90 per barrel and concluded that the total value of dividends payable by BPT before it runs dry will be $83. Since BPT's current price is $115, it's another one to avoid, though less obvious!"

In addition there has been slashing of dividends in other Trusts like HGT and the owners of others trusts are worried about similar slashes in their trusts.

can someone explain to me how Frontier can throw out a .40 cent dividend when 2012 and 2013 EPS are projected at $0.20 and $0.21???

 

[Imp]

Just to be clear:
I'm not bearish. But I'm also not going "goo goo gaa gaa" like the market is today.
In conclusion, I'm not bearish but I'm also not bullish like I was a year ago.

If a bearish person wants to sell stocks and buy bonds or gold with their proceeds, that's up to them.

You aren't, but I sure as hell am with 100% cash and reearching preferred and dividend stocks.

 

[lothar]

You aren't, but I sure as hell am with 100% cash and reearching preferred and dividend stocks.

If you're bearish then you should be buying bonds, gold, and/or double leveraged bear funds; not researching preferred and dividend paying stocks.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I have my eye on Staples as well. I bought some yesterday.
I don't see what the big deal that

They are much stronger than their competitors. Office Depot and OfficeMax can't touch them.
I expect Staples to continue gaining market share from their competitors and maintain their operating margins.

You're right, there are not many bargains out there. So many of my stocks I want to sell but what will I replace them with?
I've looked at our portfolio of stocks several times this week. The only one that makes sense for me to sell right now is PDLI.
You missed out by selling too early there, bud.

I looked over Office Depot and Office Max. I reemmber that atleast one wasn't horrible by any stretch of the imagination. Staples is just much better positioned financially.

Sellign stocks and doing nothing isn't bad. You can always research comapnies while sitting on cash then an obvious bargain can be pounced on.

PDLI .... ya they've done well. I missed out but on the other hand, I sold off an investment I did not understand well enough. I was happy with the small profit at the time and sleep well.

Take care,
ihmj

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Just to be clear:
I'm not bearish. But I'm also not going "goo goo gaa gaa" like the market is today.
In conclusion, I'm not bearish but I'm also not bullish like I was a year ago.

If a bearish person wants to sell stocks and buy bonds or gold with their proceeds, that's up to them.

I'm i nthe same spot. I think the market is proberly valued right now.

I think there is some hidden value out there. Such as what USG has done internationally since the housing market popped 5 years ago. When the housing markets fix themselves, tehy could provide unexpected explosive growth. Still though, would only buy in the mid to high teens.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

can someone explain to me how Frontier can throw out a .40 cent dividend when 2012 and 2013 EPS are projected at $0.20 and $0.21???

If you are talking FTR, the answer is Free Cash Flow. FCF is above what they pay out in dividends so it is easy for them to do (for now).

In general, keep in mind that some companies have debt, can issue more shares and do other things (both good and bad) to reward shareholders via dividends.

 

[mshan]

Louise Yamada's take on the market (from a couple weeks ago), I think, might still be capturing the sentiment of current market and on this thread very well (i. e. uptrend hasn't been broken (yet?), but the market is most definitely very tired and extended (for now?), and that there aren't many bargains out, at least in the domestic stock market):

"Since the lows of March, 2009 the stock market has bent, wilted, slumped and corrected, but it's never broken. Whether through timely intervention by the Fed, corporate expense fudging or simply by virtue of the U.S. stock market being the best of a lousy list of global investment choices, stocks have figured out a way to inch higher regardless of the environment."


video clip: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-market-long-tooth-yamada-120820358.html

 

[Imp]

If you're bearish then you should be buying bonds, gold, and/or double leveraged bear funds; not researching preferred and dividend paying stocks.

Excellent idea... except I have no idea how to buy them through my broker, and have limited knowledge on the bond market - I know coupons and "flight from risk to bonds". Time to read up...

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Imp,

A little tinkering in Ameritrade showed me that trading bonds is not that hard. You can do it.

All,
I am happy with one recent investment. It is extremely low volume so I can't just blurt it out here. It's actually a good company to own, just low volume. I know others here know of it but I forget who. PM me if you think you know it. Anyway, I actually got a lot filled at a good price 2 weeks ago and to my delight it sold off today. I had that buy order in for a whole year it feels. Probably more like 6 months. But never the less, I turned a nice 23% gain on it. Hoping to do it again.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Louise Yamada's take on the market (from a couple weeks ago), I think, might still be capturing the sentiment of current market and on this thread very well (i. e. uptrend hasn't been broken (yet?), but the market is most definitely very tired and extended (for now?), and that there aren't many bargains out, at least in the domestic stock market):

Make no mistake. I am not alone here. There are others with my sentiment. Some stocks companies are getting too richly valued. Most are fairly valued. But there are very few places to go to buy a stock company cheaply.

Another run up is welcomed by me. I'd love to dump my stocks with a run up. I'd convert to bonds and wait for the next recession.

I don't know who Louise is but she sounds like an idiot. She seems clueless as to what being a partner in a corporation is all about.

 

[lothar]

I am happy with one recent investment. It is extremely low volume so I can't just blurt it out here. It's actually a good company to own, just low volume. I know others here know of it but I forget who. PM me if you think you know it. Anyway, I actually got a lot filled at a good price 2 weeks ago and to my delight it sold off today. I had that buy order in for a whole year it feels. Probably more like 6 months. But never the less, I turned a nice 23% gain on it. Hoping to do it again.

Does it begin with S?

 

[Blades]

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-st...are-enhanced-global-dividend-and-income-fund/

Anyone who has DEX or DDF needs to take note.. People over-react to div cuts.. Make sure you're the first one to REACT.. and then take advantage of the over reaction.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

SWY up 4% today!

As a side note, my neighbor said a co worker bought 250,000 share of Ford near the bottom. Looking at the stock chart, the guy didn't do as well as my neighbor thinks. But still. The guy did damn well.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Does it begin with S?

hint for everyone else:

"A"

 

[Imp]

Pretty boring month on the market...

I looked into bonds and maybe I'll touch them on the Canadian side, but holy shit on the tax rules for buying anything but regular stocks on the American side. Very apprehensive about bonds, and REITs are just "don't touch with a 10 yard pole".

 

[Blades]

Pretty boring month on the market...

I looked into bonds and maybe I'll touch them on the Canadian side, but holy shit on the tax rules for buying anything but regular stocks on the American side. Very apprehensive about bonds, and REITs are just "don't touch with a 10 yard pole".

Arr has done fine for me. Its amazing given the yield, have it at 7.15 - also have fsc @ 10.20, which has been tearing shit up relentlessly. MAIN, my darling, recovered well from Aug 28 anomaly (which I loaded up @ 25.05) - scared me for a second, even tho I have my original shares at 22.80ish. I know the 6% yield isn't up to par with the others- but they sure do grow it. GLAD is also pretty good @ 8.4 and below. 8.4 and its a 10% yield. Somewhat risky @ 8.4, since it can and will get into the 8.20s. These are not all reits.

 

[zimu]

Arr has done fine for me. Its amazing given the yield, have it at 7.15 - also have fsc @ 10.20, which has been tearing shit up relentlessly. MAIN, my darling, recovered well from Aug 28 anomaly (which I loaded up @ 25.05) - scared me for a second, even tho I have my original shares at 22.80ish. I know the 6% yield isn't up to par with the others- but they sure do grow it. GLAD is also pretty good @ 8.4 and below. 8.4 and its a 10% yield. Somewhat risky @ 8.4, since it can and will get into the 8.20s. These are not all reits.

+1 on ARR. I joined in for the dividend yield a couple of weeks back - wasn't expecting a 6% gain in the same period of time!

 

[Imp]

Arr has done fine for me. Its amazing given the yield, have it at 7.15 - also have fsc @ 10.20, which has been tearing shit up relentlessly. MAIN, my darling, recovered well from Aug 28 anomaly (which I loaded up @ 25.05) - scared me for a second, even tho I have my original shares at 22.80ish. I know the 6% yield isn't up to par with the others- but they sure do grow it. GLAD is also pretty good @ 8.4 and below. 8.4 and its a 10% yield. Somewhat risky @ 8.4, since it can and will get into the 8.20s. These are not all reits.

I'm sure REITs are great, but from a few hours of googling, the impression I got is that I'd actually have to file a tax return with the IRS as a non-resident alien since REIT payouts are considered income and not dividends.

And shite, big rally today, totally missed it. I keep repeating this cycle where I make money after the market tanks good, then rallies, I check out completely, watch it go up, get jealous, then buy in while it's high, market tanks for good, repeat cycle. Right now I'm at "jealous".

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Well, I missed out on NAV. It just never got cheap enough. Up 17% today on a big beat.

Kinda sucks missing out on it. Oh well

 

[Blades]

Well, I missed out on NAV. It just never got cheap enough. Up 17% today on a big beat.

Kinda sucks missing out on it. Oh well

I bought it for under 20 the other day, Carl Ichan paid more. That's cheap enough for me.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Blades,

Good work. You made a killing.

I was to worried about the potential of eroding market share going forward. My fears are probably overblown. You had a good entry. I probably would have bought in the high teens(17-18 range) if I saw it.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Intel is taking a dump, and slashes expectations as expected. Like I said in the past. Intel is not a good investment.

I still recommend against holding INTC even after todays drop.

 

[rcpratt]

I give up. I'm putting those in this thread that prioritize their "correctness" over actual stock market discussion on ignore.

 

[KB]

Intel is taking a dump, and slashes expectations as expected. Like I said in the past. Intel is not a good investment.

I still recommend against holding INTC even after todays drop.

I would agree with you in the near term. Tech stocks, particularly PC stocks, are getting beaten up badly: DELL, MRVL, HPQ.

I think these stocks will be a great opportunity when businesses restart PC purchases. Perhaps when windows 8 comes out? or when hiring finally picks up and office workers need new PCs? The good thing about the falling tech stocks is that they give me someplace to go when there are no more good deals out there.

I don't own any intel right now but have in the past. I will probably pick some up after they report bad earnings in Q3 and Q4. It has a near 4% dividend so it is something I would be able to wait on.