***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Arachnotronic]

Good job, Intel! Dumped most of my shares pre-market @ $24.85, since I happened to be up early. Bought back some at $24.29. Yeesh. Divy's nice, but goddamn that was a bad miss.

Bought a bunch of NVDA on the drop. Up nicely. Trying to get some more AMD, but my order won't fill! Someone is accumulating.

 

[chusteczka]

...
Trying to get some more AMD, but my order won't fill! Someone is accumulating.

I am glad you waited for AMD to drop to $3.50. I am also watching it but want it to drop more. I am not sure if it will but I think $3.50 is the high range for what it is worth right now.

In my previous post on AMD, I stated wanting a Price/Book < 2.5.
Current Price/Book = 2.2 or 2.3.
Maybe it is time to start considering AMD again.


With Intel lowering its Q3 and Q4 estimates, that shows expectations for a weak Christmas season. This shows we probably still have a few months to pick up AMD, possible at an even lower cost than now. It may be important to purchase some time between now and the introduction of next year's product line (in February?).

7/5/2012
...
Future hope is high, production is troubled for the next couple years, book value is low, share prices are trading at 4 times book value. A Price/Book of 4 is high in this market, extremely high for a company barely making a profit. (Non-GAAP Earning Per Share (EPS) at $0.12.) I would prefer a Price/Book of less than 2.5. (This is where I get my previously stated preferred price point of $3.50 from.)

...

RIMM, OCZ, and AMD are all heavily investing in their future. RIMM appears to be failing, OCZ appears to be succeeding but is distributing stock to pay their bills, and AMD is positioning itself well but has a couple years of difficult work before it can stabilize its current market. ...

It is interesting to note that now RIMM is showing hope while OCZ appears to be failing. Quite an interesting turn-around.

 

[Hugo Drax]

I would agree with you in the near term. Tech stocks, particularly PC stocks, are getting beaten up badly: DELL, MRVL, HPQ.

I think these stocks will be a great opportunity when businesses restart PC purchases. Perhaps when windows 8 comes out? or when hiring finally picks up and office workers need new PCs? The good thing about the falling tech stocks is that they give me someplace to go when there are no more good deals out there.

I don't own any intel right now but have in the past. I will probably pick some up after they report bad earnings in Q3 and Q4. It has a near 4% dividend so it is something I would be able to wait on.

I would not want to risk it taking a position in Intel, Dividends can be cut there is no guarantees.

On PC purchases, the computers at this point are just insanely powerful, they blow out of the water a multimillion dollar cray of 12 years ago. Amazing how quickly in the last decade they rapidly ramped up performance per watt on these things.

The problem is, the computers have become exponentially powerful, everyone with the equivalent of a supercomputer on their desks. But nothing to drive the hardware which would push upgrades.

Most of the shit people use desktops for is office productivity, wasting time on the internet, and other little odds and ends. The CPUs primarily sit idle. So why would people want to upgrade?

Its not like the 80's and 90s where every Mhz counted. Upgrades are going to stretch out longer and longer as these machines are in essence underutilized.

This brings about a dilemma for Intel, They spend billions on R&D and on expensive Fabs. But what good all of it do if it starts to sit idle and it takes longer and longer to recoup these costs?

And now you have people computing on Tablets/phones etc with the ARM architecture being the predominate product in use.

Intel, being the fat and happy company failed to innovate and see this future and was more than happy to milk the x86 cow and not even plan for a future where low power computing would be a new growing market.

I don't like Intel as a long term holding. If you want exposure to tech just buy the QQQ (dont go overboard) don't put all your eggs in one basket.


BTW: Windows 8 will be a disaster and will not drive PC sales, and will burn MSFT. Windows 8 was a dumb move by the shitty CEO Ballmer who cant see past his nose.

 

[chusteczka]

news.cnet.com - Worst third quarter 'in the history of PCs' on its way -- analyst

 

[Imp]

Ooooo... shit got interesting. Markets were flat most of the day, not it's dropping. "Concerns over Greece overshadow stimulus hopes"...

 

[rcpratt]

I love my natural gas

 

[Blades]

I love my natural gas

Is that a fart joke?

 

[Hugo Drax]

news.cnet.com - Worst third quarter 'in the history of PCs' on its way -- analyst

Not surprising. PC's are the equivalent of the Washing Machine. How often do people toss out old Washing Machines and replace them with a new model?

 

[chusteczka]

Not surprising. PC's are the equivalent of the Washing Machine. How often do people toss out old Washing Machines and replace them with a new model?

You make a good point since I have been noticing that with myself. I have replaced my systems about every 2 years yet my current AMD DDR3 system continues to meet my needs without resorting to overclocking. I may go 3 years or more with this.

Casual users can be quite stubborn. There is a lady down the hall still using a P4 with 2GB DDR 400MHz memory. I just upgraded her system memory from 1GB to 2GB and she is really happy and satisfied with the speed improvement. I tried tempting her to upgrade to this refurbished HP computer with an AMD A4 cpu for $300 and she was resistant.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16883203771

 

[Imp]

Not surprising. PC's are the equivalent of the Washing Machine. How often do people toss out old Washing Machines and replace them with a new model?

I'm a nerd and even I keep my machines 4 years on average. Think I'm at year 2.5 and everything still runs great. Freaking jealous that RAM prices were so high when I built it though - I paid $100 for 4 Gb and now it's $100 for 16 Gb or something.

 

[rcpratt]

Is that a fart joke?

Both?

 

[Arachnotronic]

Bought some LSCC @ $3.89, AMD @ $3.51, and MRVL @ $10.21 today.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I love my natural gas

I'm sitting on alot of SD stock. Got in at a good price and every day lately I have been watching it go up.

Intend on holding till atleast the low teens.

 

[rcpratt]

I'm sitting on alot of SD stock. Got in at a good price and every day lately I have been watching it go up.

Intend on holding till atleast the low teens.

I'm just using BOIL, hopping in at ~$38-39 and out at $43. Rinse and repeat...four times so far.

15% in two days, fine by me.

 

[Harrod]

I'm sitting on alot of SD stock. Got in at a good price and every day lately I have been watching it go up.

Intend on holding till atleast the low teens.

I'm waiting for this to dip down again to get back into it. I've bought it at 6.06, 6.10 and 6.30 and sold it all off at around the 6.80 mark.

 

[KB]

BTW: Windows 8 will be a disaster and will not drive PC sales, and will burn MSFT. Windows 8 was a dumb move by the shitty CEO Ballmer who cant see past his nose.

I am a little bit more optimistic about Windows 8. I think the convertable tablet/PC is an old idea that may actually catch on better this time, particularly with business types. Being able to run windows x86 binaries on a tablet is a great feature.
http://www.zdnet.com/idf-2012-has-the-convertible-pcs-time-finally-come-7000004042/

The only big problem, is that it is so late to the game. Will be fun to watch.

I am still going to wait for a bit more bleeding in the tech sector before diving in though.

Bought some LSCC @ $3.89, AMD @ $3.51, and MRVL @ $10.21 today.

Somebodys diving in head first. MRVL is the most interesting of the 3. All it takes is one more part in the next ipad/iphone and up they go.

 

[chusteczka]

Bought some LSCC @ $3.89, AMD @ $3.51, and MRVL @ $10.21 today.

All three are jumping higher today. Good job.
I was waiting.

 

[Mermaidman]

I accidentally bought more PSX today instead of selling, which was my intention. Should I just sell again and end up paying 2x the transaction fee?
god I am a maroon

 

[chusteczka]

I accidentally bought more PSX today instead of selling, which was my intention. Should I just sell again and end up paying 2x the transaction fee?
god I am a maroon

You bought more at the 52 week high... Maybe that is the universe saying to hold. Money seems to be leaving the tech industry now and it has to go somewhere. It seems money is flowing into gas (energy) and insurance.

Maybe you could sell half and hold the new half.

 

[Imp]

I accidentally bought more PSX today instead of selling, which was my intention. Should I just sell again and end up paying 2x the transaction fee?
god I am a maroon

I've never done that, but I have incompletely sold off holdings before, which end up with me paying twice the transaction fee.

You either pay the transaction fee, or risk losing (or gaining if you're lucky) more money if the price moves.

 

[chusteczka]

Mermaidman:
Thinking about it, sell the whole thing like you wanted to do in the first place. Forget about the universe. We know the price will drop once it hits the 52 week high. Let it drop a bit and then buy back in later at a lower price if that is what you want.

The loss now is just the cost for the mistake.

But I guess the safe thing to do would be to sell half and keep half just in case.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm waiting for this to dip down again to get back into it. I've bought it at 6.06, 6.10 and 6.30 and sold it all off at around the 6.80 mark.

I've done that once or twice. This time I am just waiting though. No rush. I think it will break 10 eventually (within a few years). Im willing to wait that long for a 100% gain. I am worried that trading will eventually force me to miss the big run up.

 

[Mermaidman]

Mermaidman:
Thinking about it, sell the whole thing like you wanted to do in the first place. Forget about the universe. We know the price will drop once it hits the 52 week high. Let it drop a bit and then buy back in later at a lower price if that is what you want.

The loss now is just the cost for the mistake.

But I guess the safe thing to do would be to sell half and keep half just in case.

Thanks for the suggestions. I ended up selling all of it. $20 lesson.

 

[chusteczka]

Thanks for the suggestions. I ended up selling all of it. $20 lesson.

I could not come up with a straight course of action to take in your situation and realized there was no answer. It all depends on where we expect the price to go. That company is doing well and money is flowing into oil for good long term investment but the price also hit its 52 week high, which would typically lead to resistance and a price drop as people sell.

Long Term = Hold
Short Term = Sell

That seems to be the best. $20 is not a bad lesson to double check your trade before submitting it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

All three are jumping higher today. Good job.
I was waiting.

Thanks! LSCC is finally filling the gap from its earning warn a while back. But 40% of its market cap in cash + no debt in the $3's was a no-brainer.

AMD is a little riskier, but I think their tech alone is worth more than the measly $2.xxB market cap.

MRVL...huge cash position, no debt, close to book, pays dividend.

Did I mention that I love companies with ginormous cash positions?