***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Hello quarter #<?> earnings.

 

[rcpratt]

Up over 15% on UCO in less than a month, and I think it has a decent run left in it still.

 

[akshatp]

Thoughts on OCZ at ~4.50??

 

[rcpratt]

VVUS is fun to watch today. Slid in for a few hours and made $500+ (~5%) on the rally up to the announcement. And got back in on ARNA 20 cents lower at the same time.

 

[Imp]

Looks like we're in a holding pattern... Something big coming later this week?

 

[rcpratt]

USA Today leaked the VVUS approval. What a CF. Made another $500 off it, though.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Thoughts on OCZ at ~4.50??

Bargain. But do your due diligence and understand the company + the stock price movements before you get involved in it.

Lots of people don't "get" the OCZ story. Payoff potential from here is huge and downside is pretty minimal at the $4.50 level.

 

[SunnyD]

Bargain. But do your due diligence and understand the company + the stock price movements before you get involved in it.

Lots of people don't "get" the OCZ story. Payoff potential from here is huge and downside is pretty minimal at the $4.50 level.

Lots of people don't "get" the fact that OCZ started what was a niche market that catered to enthusiasts where they could charge a premium for low demand components before that niche market turned into a commodity market flooded by better performing, better quality products at lower prices that gobbled up what is now high demand components leaving players like OCZ with the scraps.

This is why OCZ is complaining about supply issues, missing their revenue targets by huge percentages, and having their ratings adjusted downwards quite heavily by 9 out of 10 brokers.

That said, it still has a buy rating with a double-digit target (which has dropped by about 30% this last quarter mind you). Pressure is only going to get worse with Intel and Samsung leveraging probably 90% of the solid state market at this point. Couple that with OCZ's history of faulty products, rapidly shrinking margins on pretty much everything they sell (RAM, PSU's, etc), and, well, you're playing with fire. OCZ will follow the market at best at this point. Maybe a small pop, unless there's a huge tech boom or some sort of major design win for them (which is rather unlikely given they simply don't have the weight of an Intel or Samsung behind them).

 

[JTsyo]

Lots of people don't "get" the fact that OCZ started what was a niche market that catered to enthusiasts where they could charge a premium for low demand components before that niche market turned into a commodity market flooded by better performing, better quality products at lower prices that gobbled up what is now high demand components leaving players like OCZ with the scraps.

This is why OCZ is complaining about supply issues, missing their revenue targets by huge percentages, and having their ratings adjusted downwards quite heavily by 9 out of 10 brokers.

That said, it still has a buy rating with a double-digit target (which has dropped by about 30% this last quarter mind you). Pressure is only going to get worse with Intel and Samsung leveraging probably 90% of the solid state market at this point. Couple that with OCZ's history of faulty products, rapidly shrinking margins on pretty much everything they sell (RAM, PSU's, etc), and, well, you're playing with fire. OCZ will follow the market at best at this point. Maybe a small pop, unless there's a huge tech boom or some sort of major design win for them (which is rather unlikely given they simply don't have the weight of an Intel or Samsung behind them).

Computer hardware in general has been slowing. Both Intel and AMD got their estimated earnings reduced. While I'm holding OCZ right now, I'll sell once it hits around $6 not sure how higher it can go but not going to risk it.

 

[SunnyD]

Computer hardware in general has been slowing. Both Intel and AMD got their estimated earnings reduced. While I'm holding OCZ right now, I'll sell once it hits around $6 not sure how higher it can go but not going to risk it.

I think $6-$7 is a good, if not optimistic "pop" target myself for when the market turns around in general. The pie-in-the-sky estimates of $13-$15 that the analysts had before they recently downgraded to $10-$13 are just ridiculous (in my opinion).

To answer the question directly - $4.50 is okay at this point, but not something I would be investing in with the hopes of getting rich on at this point. I guess I sort of agree with Intel17 a bit - the downside is rather limited, I don't see it going down much below $4.00 any time soon unless there's some major missteps from management in the near term. But I don't see it going up any either.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Lots of people don't "get" the fact that OCZ started what was a niche market that catered to enthusiasts where they could charge a premium for low demand components before that niche market turned into a commodity market flooded by better performing, better quality products at lower prices that gobbled up what is now high demand components leaving players like OCZ with the scraps.

I'd say the Vertex 4 and Agility 4 drives are high quality drives that are at very competitive prices. Not to mention that OCZ is one of the very few players that owns an SSD controller company. Also, how many other companies have PCI-E SSDs? Corsair? Plextor? Patriot? Any of these other commodity guys? Nope.

On consumer side, OCZ does well, and on enterprise side, with their Z-Drive series, they will ramp the sales and do exceptionally well. It just requires patience. That's why I didn't sell at $6.40 or whatever it hit recently, and I don't really intend to until the OCZ story is played out: either a $15-20 stock or bankruptcy.

If you read/listen to the latest CC, they've just taped out Barefoot 3 which uses an in-house designed SSD processor. No Marvell or SandForce going forward.

This is why OCZ is complaining about supply issues, missing their revenue targets by huge percentages, and having their ratings adjusted downwards quite heavily by 9 out of 10 brokers.

Missing their revenue targets? Please. They guided $110-120M for the quarter and they came in at $113M. They would've hit $140M if it weren't for that voltage regulator supply shortage. Note that even $113M is a 54% increase over last year's Q1.

Analysts are a joke and all of their targets and ratings are all baloney.

Couple that with OCZ's history of faulty products, rapidly shrinking margins on pretty much everything they sell (RAM, PSU's, etc)

Yeah? Gross margins ticked up sequentially from 25% to 25.2%, hamstrung by the Vertex 4 and Agility 4 shortages (these are the higher margin products, and the older products were discounted heavily). This quarter last year, gross margins were 20%.

OCZ will follow the market at best at this point. Maybe a small pop, unless there's a huge tech boom or some sort of major design win for them (which is rather unlikely given they simply don't have the weight of an Intel or Samsung behind them).

Oh, you mean like a Microsoft win? Or how about scoring wins with 11 out of 12 major OEMS (mentioned in the May call)? Please do some research before joining the OCZ bash club. But I guess it's this misconception that leads to the insane short interest that will eventually have to cover.

The next big catalyst I see is OCZ announcing some kind of partnership with a NAND fab (probably the Intel-Micron NAND venture).

 

[Kntx]

Intel Core i7 2600K @ 4.4GHz| ASUS P8Z77-V | 16GB G.Skill DDR3-1333 | Zotac GTX 580 AMP! Edition| Intel SSD 510 250GB | Western Digital Caviar Black 1.5TB | Seagate 1.5TB 7200RPM | Antec TPQ 1200W | Antec Three Hundred

 

[InverseOfNeo]

Can someone tell me why this may have happened? I did not tell ShareBuilder to sell anything nor is anything in my order status/history yet they sold one hundredth of a share. I have contacted them and waiting for their reply.
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]QUANTITY[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ACTION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DESCRIPTION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SYMBOL[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
0.0101[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] SELL[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] APPLE INC[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] AAPL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TRADE DATE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SETTLEMENT DATE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MARKET[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAPACITY[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TRANSACTION NO.[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
7/17/2012[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7/17/2012[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2400085980779[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PRICE&#8224;[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PRINCIPAL AMT[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COMMISSION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MISC CHARGE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TOTAL AMOUNT[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
$606.91[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$6.15[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$0.00[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$0.00[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$6.15[/FONT]

 

[SunnyD]

Missing their revenue targets? Please. They guided $110-120M for the quarter and they came in at $113M. They would've hit $140M if it weren't for that voltage regulator supply shortage. Note that even $113M is a 54% increase over last year's Q1.

They guided $140M, revised $110-120M just before the numbers came out, friend. They came in $27M below their own guidance for the quarter before the revision. Regardless, they're still burning money.

OCZ's in-house products have always been laughable at best. Their best products were always either OEM'd or "OCZ made" from companies recently acquired by OCZ that had not yet had time to have OCZ make changes to management and design yet.

Like I said, with the news they have going on, there's isn't a lot of downside risk right now. But there sure as hell isn't a lot of upside either.

 

[JTsyo]

Can someone tell me why this may have happened? I did not tell ShareBuilder to sell anything nor is anything in my order status/history yet they sold one hundredth of a share. I have contacted them and waiting for their reply.
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]QUANTITY[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ACTION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DESCRIPTION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SYMBOL[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
0.0101[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] SELL[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] APPLE INC[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] AAPL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TRADE DATE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SETTLEMENT DATE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MARKET[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAPACITY[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TRANSACTION NO.[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
7/17/2012[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 7/17/2012[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 2400085980779[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PRICE†[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PRINCIPAL AMT[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]COMMISSION[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MISC CHARGE[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TOTAL AMOUNT[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
$606.91[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$6.15[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$0.00[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$0.00[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$6.15[/FONT]

A sell to cover maybe. Any $6 fee you're aware of?

 

[InverseOfNeo]

A sell to cover maybe. Any $6 fee you're aware of?

Without looking closely ,not that I can think of, plus it is linked to my ING accounts so I would think that if I did incur such fee they would take it from that. While writing this I did look at the transaction history...looks like you may be right. Though it seems messed up. I got a dividend reinvested and they charged me "Federal Backup Withholding" plus an Insufficient Funds Fee. The FBW and Insuff. Funds total $6.15. One hundredth of a share won't hurt me by any means but still feel like they should have told me before taking my money via selling shares.

 

[rcpratt]

Looking for some new opportunities now that my biotech funtimes are probably over. Made enough on them for the year, not going to stick my neck out any further.

 

[Arachnotronic]

They guided $140M, revised $110-120M just before the numbers came out, friend. They came in $27M below their own guidance for the quarter before the revision.

Uh, no.
http://storagenewsletter.com/news/financial/ocz-technology-fiscal-4q12-financial-results

"OCZ expects net revenue for its first fiscal quarter ending May 31, 2012 (Q1'13), to be in the range of $110 to $120 million."

They came in at $113M, and had bookings for the quarter of $140M. (couldn't ship that $27M worth because of a voltage regulator shortage, but the orders were there and the products have since been shipped).

That being said, the future of the stock pretty much hinges on their ability to gain PCI-E drive wins. They claim they have a lot of wins in the pipeline that are taking time to qualify/ramp, but the street does not believe them.

If you believe them, then buy in now. If they're actually right, the stock goes >$9 before end of year. If they were lying to us, then...well, we'll just be back here in the $4's.

 

[JTsyo]

See OCZ's movements today? sometimes the market makes no sense.

 

[zimu]

See OCZ's movements today? sometimes the market makes no sense.

takeover rumors.

 

[The-Noid]

takeover rumors.

Where do you see that? I see no headlines on DJ/BBG/RTRS.

 

[tfinch2]

Where do you see that? I see no headlines on DJ/BBG/RTRS.

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/28001-seagate-probing-ocz-acquisition

 

[rcpratt]

7/18/12 Buy 1300 OCZ @ $4.50 -$5,850.00
7/19/12 Sell 1300 OCZ @ $5.23 +$6,799.00

Alrighty then.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

SWY just dropped 8% this morning to make a new 52 week low.

 

[The-Noid]

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/28001-seagate-probing-ocz-acquisition

Is this really what trading has become? People on this board don't even believe fudzilla and now we have real money chasing off fudzilla.

(Reuters) - Shares of OCZ Technology Group Inc (OCZ.O) spiked as much as 20 percent in early trade following a report that larger rival Seagate Technology Plc (STX.O) had offered to buy out the solid-state hard drive maker.

Fudzilla.com, a hardware industry blog, reported on Thursday that Seagate is considering acquiring OCZ to boost its SSD product portfolio. The website said a deal could be announced as early as next week.

Seagate and OCZ were not immediately available for comment.