***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

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Hugo Drax

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
The Buisness OCZ is in is a commodity buisness with shrinking margins and strong competition. It is a tough buisness. Notice how those Vertex 4 prices has dropped.
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
FearGreedHistoricalImage


How does the Fear and Greed index correlate to the market?

ie: how much would you have gained if?
-you bought S&P500 when fear was at its highest in Aug 2011
-then sold into Bonds when Greed was at it's highest late Jan 2012
-then sold bonds and bought s&p on June 1st, 2012?
 
C

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,399
3
71
More on AMD

anandtech.com - Understanding AMD's Roadmap & New Direction (2/2/2012)
The big transition will happen next year, as AMD moves its entire APU stack from 32nm SOI to a bulk 28nm process at Global Foundries. This is an important move as it signifies the use of more easily synthesized designs, which enables AMD to bring out APUs in a quicker fashion and with lower design costs.
...

What once was a 3+ year design cycle for AMD CPUs and APUs now shrinks to less than 24 months (maybe even as short as 18 months) as a result of this migration to more easily synthesized designs.
...

Obviously AMD's ability to execute on this roadmap will depend heavily on Global Foundries delivering good yields at 28nm, however AMD does seem fairly confident at this point. That being said, 2013 is a very broad timeframe. Executing on the above roadmap sooner rather than later in 2013 will be the difference between a competitive AMD and one that's quickly written off. ...
Click to expand...


AMD's separation from Gobal Foundries without having an alternative supplier is a risky move. Production may have been set back at least one year, and the optimistic 24 month to 18 month design cycle may have now been returned to a 36 month cycle. It will take longer for the new supplier to get up to speed.

The stock price is dropping now but a bump can be expected when they sign with a new supplier. A negotiated contract with IBM can be expected to provide a significant bump in stock price, that may then slowly reduce to a realistic level.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Stil 50% in "long", but I pulled the other half out last week in anticipation of craptastic job numbers. I was not disappointed...

Let's see how deep and long this slide goes. Ready to pop the other half back in.
 
V

Vdubchaos

Lifer
Nov 11, 2009
10,408
10
0
KB said:
Bad news from chip makers. AMD down pretty big, AMAT lowering earnings. Looks like technology spending is falling so it maybe not the best time to be in chip makers, although Intel isn't getting falling as I expected it would.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...arter-sales-to-fall-11-reducing-forecast.html
Click to expand...

Everyone and their mother knew CPU progress would slow down A LOT past 2010.

It shows in the products as well. Sure CPUs are a bit faster, but in general almost everyone can get by using 3-5 year old CPU just fine.

Just a matter of time before Intel will be hurting....
 
JTsyo

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,067
1,159
126
OCZ taking a dive before earnings. This will be interesting. Lots of call options too.
 
R

Ricochet

Diamond Member
Oct 31, 1999
6,390
19
81
I might consider AMD now that it has taken a beating. It was not too long ago that it made a quick climb over $8 then of course quickly back down.
 
M

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
One of the mutual funds I own (Vanguard's Primecap Management's VHCOX) has owned RIMM for quite some time (unfortunately, I think they might have bought above $30 because it has shown up in their quarterly reports for quite some time), so IHMJ2004 is / (was not previously) wrong in his assertions that there was value there: http://investors.morningstar.com/ow...overview.html?t=RIMM&region=USA&culture=en-US

Just like Longleaf Partners (parent company is Southeastern Asset Management that, along with Carl Icahn, was demanding board seats) large position in Chesapeake Energy, it seems like it is a matter if they will be in business long enough for that value to be realized (in Chesapeake's case, it seems like immediate problem of so much natural gas being put in storage by this fall that there is no where left to put it and they then have to start burning it off at the well at complete loss has dissipated, but still have to sell enough assets, hopefully not at firesale prices, that they safely make it to 2013 when it sounds like things are supposed to pick up for them).

For better or worse, I guess in both cases time will tell.
 
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IHateMyJob2004

IHateMyJob2004

Lifer
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
mshan said:
I saw some commentary on tv a few weeks ago that RIMM has 12 - 18 months before they run out of cash.

edit: found this via google search: http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/how-grim-is-rim-anatomy-of-a-trainwreck-by-the-numbers/
Click to expand...

Ya, one person says it without actually doing research. And it gets repeated all over the place.

I've never seen people so negative on a comapny that has a growing subscriber base and is FCF positive while having no debt and billions in cash.

Just saying. Find me the article that explains the rational for such a comment. I havn't seen that one yet.

OK, I found one. It is biased though. Basically assumes BB10 is a flop. Assumes that hte international market (where RIMM is growing in some places) will reverse. Just seems to be totally ignoring hte world market.
 
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P

PimpJuice

Platinum Member
Feb 14, 2005
2,051
1
76
IHateMyJob2004 said:
Ya, one person says it without actually doing research. And it gets repeated all over the place.

I've never seen people so negative on a comapny that has a growing subscriber base and is FCF positive while having no debt and billions in cash.

Just saying. Find me the article that explains the rational for such a comment. I havn't seen that one yet.

OK, I found one. It is biased though. Basically assumes BB10 is a flop. Assumes that hte international market (where RIMM is growing in some places) will reverse. Just seems to be totally ignoring hte world market.
Click to expand...

Nobody here believes your hype, you can quit trying to peddle it.
 
T

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
4
76
IHateMyJob2004 said:
Ya, one person says it without actually doing research. And it gets repeated all over the place.

I've never seen people so negative on a comapny that has a growing subscriber base and is FCF positive while having no debt and billions in cash.

Just saying. Find me the article that explains the rational for such a comment. I havn't seen that one yet.

OK, I found one. It is biased though. Basically assumes BB10 is a flop. Assumes that hte international market (where RIMM is growing in some places) will reverse. Just seems to be totally ignoring hte world market.
Click to expand...

You keep going back to FCF; however you never answer my question. How can the changes in working capital this quarter be seen as anything but one time items?

Without the changes in working capital (huge drawdown in AR), they are already burning cash and at the current rate 18 months is right in line.
 
IHateMyJob2004

IHateMyJob2004

Lifer
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
PimpJuice said:
Nobody here believes your hype, you can quit trying to peddle it.
Click to expand...

Nobody here has to beleive it. Why should they when the latest article can say different? But if they don't research it, they can't assume it is wrong.

How often do people point out that RIMMs market share in India went from 13% to 15% in India the last quarter? (might have been 11% to 13%, I forget). Population of India about 1 billion. Population of USA, 300 million. Not peddling, stating facts.

Anyway, people laughed at my LEE Enterprises call. That dieing industry. Everyone here did notice that Buffett is buying that very company, right? I'm jsut waiting for people to start seeing the reality behind RIMM. I'm not playing this populariy contest BS that 90%+ of the people in this thread are into. I'm here to make money.
 
SunnyD

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,675
146
106
www.neftastic.com
JTsyo said:
How can you say no to $4.50 offerings? I don't believe the claims of a jump to $8 but expect it to hit $6 again.
Click to expand...

OCZ can push the supply chain bullshit line all they want, but when you're on a tech forum and all you have to do it turn to the appropriate subforum to see that they sell sub-par quality shit (like I've said before) in commodity markets - hey, it's your money to lose.
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
IHateMyJob2004 said:
Nice, SWY down in the morning. Got in at about $17.50.
Click to expand...

Are you still holding SWY?


I actually got in on SWY this morning and am seeing a lucky bounce today, which may not hold.

Good:
> 3.5% dividend (3.9%)
< 50% payout ratio (32%)
< 12 P/E (10.2)
History of raising dividend
Buying back stock for the last few years

Bad:
Highly leveraged (used debt to buy stock)
Been in a downtrend
Tough competition from Walmart and others


But what has me most interested in this stock is the short ratio at 23%.
I am hoping for a short squeeze here. If earnings generate some high interest a short squeeze is a real possibility.
 
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