***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

SU possibly forming new bottom. Might be time to go in. Will wait until after "fed minutes" between 2-3pm before re-entering.

 

[Corporate Thug]

How can you say no to $4.50 offerings? I don't believe the claims of a jump to $8 but expect it to hit $6 again.

Because there are better managed companies with better balance sheets.

 

[Aharami]

ATRS still killing it for me...this thing is really a diamond in the rough.

was mulling selling mine at 5 because I knew the runup will bring it under the radar of short traders. Sure enough it got shorted to all hell and brought the stock down to 4.5. but im not complaining. holding this for the long run

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Sold my stake in SWHC this morning when they were up. 110% gain YTD......I think that will be my luckiest trade ever.

 

[SunnyD]

Any thoughts on SWC? For some reason PGMs are a bit flat right now, but I think with China starting with the rare earths, they're going to extend their controls over into all sorts of other materials. SWC has been fairly stable even quite recently, and the current share price is pretty temping. The have some pretty extensive holdings in some good areas.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Are you still holding SWY?


I actually got in on SWY this morning and am seeing a lucky bounce today, which may not hold.

Good:
> 3.5% dividend (3.9%)
< 50% payout ratio (32%)
< 12 P/E (10.2)
History of raising dividend
Buying back stock for the last few years

Bad:
Highly leveraged (used debt to buy stock)
Been in a downtrend
Tough competition from Walmart and others


But what has me most interested in this stock is the short ratio at 23%.
I am hoping for a short squeeze here. If earnings generate some high interest a short squeeze is a real possibility.

Yes, still holding it. I'd probably sell it off in the high $19s.

That (WalMart) is the tough part with SWY and traditional grocers. Super Wal-Marts are taking away some of the market share in this low margin (take that with a grain of salt) industry.

If it were not for the share buy backs, I would not have bought SWY. But that is the nice thing about SWY for what seem to be obvious reasons.

Just noticed the balance sheet has worsened and FCF slipped. SWY is starting to get into scary territory (I don't like it when FCF to long term debt ratios get over 10). But now I see why the balance sheet slipped. Shares dropped from 340m to 268m over the past quarter. WOW! I didn't even know that till just now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

You keep going back to FCF; however you never answer my question. How can the changes in working capital this quarter be seen as anything but one time items?

Without the changes in working capital (huge drawdown in AR), they are already burning cash and at the current rate 18 months is right in line.

I've pondered this.

I'll say it simply.

1) Is it knowable?
2) Is it important?

Answers:
1) People can estimate the time till the cash horde disappears all they want. 12 mnths. 24 months. Give me your best estimate.

2) No. BB10 is going to have a big impact or it is not. If BB10 is a success globally, RIMM will do quite well. If BB10 fails, RIMM is done for. And it won't take 18 months for this to happen.

Why do I go back to FCF? Because as an owner in a company, it is all that I care about. I don't care if it is a hot dog cart, an income property or Apple.

Ya, accounts receivable slipped. Whopie. See (2) above.

Investing in RIMM is a qualitative issue, not a quantitative issue. I know that RIMM is currently in good financial health. That;'s good enough. I just like what they are doing in India and I think BB10 will work in India. I love the fact that people in the USA think RIMM is dead. They are the investors. They are just ignoring the elephant in the room which is convenient for me. And that elephant is India.

How often do you read a US based article on RIMM that talks about RIMM relative to India? And I'm not talking about searching for it. That actually yields info. I mean, actual articles that appear in the mainstream media that 99% of the Lemmings in the USA rely upon.

Example... had to look through Google results for about 10 minutes.

"We are investing close to US$100 million (INR 5,542 million) worldwide to boost our developer ecosystem. Our priority is to ensure a strong support system for our developer communities around the world," says Alec Saunders, Vice President, Developer Relations at RIM.

Realizing the growth potential, RIM has pinned its hopes on developing markets like India and is working closely with local developers to understand the market dynamics. There is also an aggressive push to expand its BASE (BlackBerry Apps by Student Entrepreneurs) program in the country to increase its local developer base.

For starters, BlackBerry started the BASE program in 2012 which gives an opportunity to engineering students from selected colleges to develop applications for the company. The first BASE (2012) is targeted at third and fourth-year engineering students in Tamil Nadu.

Qualitative data matters right now.

 

[lothar]

How can you say no to $4.50 offerings? I don't believe the claims of a jump to $8 but expect it to hit $6 again.

How can you not?

 

[The-Noid]

...

Now we agree...

I agree with all your points; however you or anyone else is not buying RIMM for the FCF. In a sense it is an option on three things. EM growth, takeout candidate and the possibility of an epic launch of BB10.

Using FCF as the reason is however not the first choice, imo.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

SWY tanks on SVU dibvidend cut. SWY down to $16.50 or so (8% drop from yesterdays close). Just boucing around after the open.

 

[The-Noid]

SWY tanks on SVU dibvidend cut. SWY down to $16.50 or so (8% drop from yesterdays close). Just boucing around after the open.

The SVU cc did not instill a lot of confidence. Seemed as though it was a situation of really not knowing what was going on.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Now we agree...

I agree with all your points; however you or anyone else is not buying RIMM for the FCF. In a sense it is an option on three things. EM growth, takeout candidate and the possibility of an epic launch of BB10.

Using FCF as the reason is however not the first choice, imo.

Even with a moderate BB10 release, it could stabalize or grow FCF. If people perceive that FCF will stabailize or grow, RIMM stock should appreciate nicely. If BB10 is a homerun, the stock will sky rocket.

FWIW: January 2014 35 calls are about 10 cents each right now. I have some but due to the BB10 delay, I am waiting for the 2015 LEAPS to come out but fear that the premium will be too high on them to bother buying them. I figure by the time they come out, those January 2014s won't have moved much so I could add more at that time if hte 2015 premiums are to great.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

The SVU cc did not instill a lot of confidence. Seemed as though it was a situation of really not knowing what was going on.

When I was looking at grocers (alot of them seemed attractively priced), I took a look at SVU and SWY. Those two I remember. But I looked over a few others.

Looking over everything. Share count, dividends, FCF, long term debt, etc. SWY is superior.

 

[jessieqwert]

LNKD in up today. Buying AUG 100 puts - rinse and repeat

 

[Corporate Thug]

was mulling selling mine at 5 because I knew the runup will bring it under the radar of short traders. Sure enough it got shorted to all hell and brought the stock down to 4.5. but im not complaining. holding this for the long run

you can't hold this thing down for long...back near testing 5 on bad tape.

 

[Aharami]

damn! MDGN didnt hit my limit buy by 5 cents this morning! Went from 11.7 to 15.2!!!

 

[KB]

SWY tanks on SVU dibvidend cut. SWY down to $16.50 or so (8% drop from yesterdays close). Just boucing around after the open.

ugh... i should have known this was going to happen. why, because i bought it. sorry i tanked your shares. i think i will hold Swy for now. removing #3 in the market may actually help #2. thanks to the dividend i can wait.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

KB,

Sorry for the ill timed idea. Things like this happen though. I too am holding. I'm really not that worried. I see stocks drop 20% all the time. Freaking out and selling is how one looses money. Waiting for that 20% drop to become a 30% drop and then buying more. That's one way to make money.

 

[Mermaidman]

So is HPQ headed the same way as RIMM? How low can it go?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

So is HPQ headed the same way as RIMM? How low can it go?

What is HPQs strategy for emerging markets?

 

[HybridSquirrel]

fuck, should've held onto my SWHC =[ I make terrible decisions.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Any truth to the liquiid metal rumor on the iPhone 5?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=lqm...al&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=we

I've known about this company for about 10 years now. Found it to be an interesting story to watch but not to invest in. figure it will have it's day eventually. Is it's day coming?

 

[mshan]

Remember seeing an article on liquid metal on Mac Rumors website a while ago: http://www.macrumors.com/2012/05/02...s-as-major-design-material-for-several-years/

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I know liquid metal can be made into some very small strong parts like hinges on phones that need to be small but strong.

I'd actually be surprised to hear that they could make a whole back cover for an iPhone. I didn't know the tech has advanced that far yet regarding part sizes. Havn't really been following it though.

If they can actually get some bigger parts sizes out, that company could explode!

 

[Arachnotronic]

Someone up there must really love me, giving me the chance to buy OCZ @ $4.26.

Selling all my AMD, taking that hit, and putting it all into OCZ.