FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 30,997
- 2,680
- 126
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
OK, let's say governemnt employees are overpaid. We slash budgets but to keep people employed, we cut salaries of union members. Side effects? Yes. More mortgage defaults. The other option of course is to keep gov't employees pay where it is and lay people off. Same side effect. Of course, there is a huge systemic risk in mortgage defaults.
Thus why i hate politicians. They only think 1 step ahead. This is 2 minutes of logic that 300+ people can not figure out in a month. AWESOME!
Thus why i hate politicians. They only think 1 step ahead. This is 2 minutes of logic that 300+ people can not figure out in a month. AWESOME!
You are only looking at one side of the story. The damage cause by our massive debt outweighs the short term pain. IMO they would have been much better off doing the big deal and actually getting the budget straight. Now it's still an open issue and there is still no certainty of the future policies of the US.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Drizzle,
I know in a recession you shouldn't be cutting spending. We are about 1 year away from housing related industries recovering and with it unemployment will improve. When this happens, it would make sense to cut government spending. But not now. When are these cuts effective anyway? I don't know. if it is 1+ year from now then I don't think it is much of an issue.
The damage caused by our massive debt? I guess that depends on how you define massive. And how one defiens short term pain. Short term pain could end up being 15% unemployment with a further drop in housing prices. And that drop in housing prices could be systemic.
Until the ultra-wealthy pay more in taxes, I don't care what changes are made. That crap has to stop. Why on earth the poor and middle class want to pay more in taxes relative to the whole is beyond me. Some are truely mindless zombies.
Of course the real issue is debt/GDP. What should happen is inflation (a tax that most don't realize is a tax and even better, it does not take a vote of congress). This is a tool politicans have used in the past and should (will?) in the future. A few years of 10-15% inflation could fix alot of things. A weeker dollar means we pay more for crap for things from China but it also means it is more economical to make things in the USA which ironically would create more jobs.
I know in a recession you shouldn't be cutting spending. We are about 1 year away from housing related industries recovering and with it unemployment will improve. When this happens, it would make sense to cut government spending. But not now. When are these cuts effective anyway? I don't know. if it is 1+ year from now then I don't think it is much of an issue.
The damage caused by our massive debt? I guess that depends on how you define massive. And how one defiens short term pain. Short term pain could end up being 15% unemployment with a further drop in housing prices. And that drop in housing prices could be systemic.
Until the ultra-wealthy pay more in taxes, I don't care what changes are made. That crap has to stop. Why on earth the poor and middle class want to pay more in taxes relative to the whole is beyond me. Some are truely mindless zombies.
Of course the real issue is debt/GDP. What should happen is inflation (a tax that most don't realize is a tax and even better, it does not take a vote of congress). This is a tool politicans have used in the past and should (will?) in the future. A few years of 10-15% inflation could fix alot of things. A weeker dollar means we pay more for crap for things from China but it also means it is more economical to make things in the USA which ironically would create more jobs.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Noticed SVU tanking so I decided to look at my old favorite related company SWY. It is down to near it's 52 week low. So I bought it.
Why SWY? Slow grower is the first thing you notice. But you will also notice that it has increased it's dividend over the past 5 years every year or just about every year. Revenues are on a slight inlcine over 10 years. FCF easily handles the debt load. This is one that looks fiscally conservative but slow growing. I think this is what most people miss, especially if using screeners. Look at everything, then go look at the 10 year history of share count. Almost every year the share count drops! Which adds shareholder value. The share count has dropped 2% annually over the past 10 years. And FCF has grown at 6% annually. The dividend yield is 3%. All these little things add up!
Valuation is a bit tricky but if you have enough experience with DCF analysis, you don't need a spreadsheet to value this one. You can ballpark it in your head and realize that is is undervalued by X%. I won't say what X is though.
Why SWY? Slow grower is the first thing you notice. But you will also notice that it has increased it's dividend over the past 5 years every year or just about every year. Revenues are on a slight inlcine over 10 years. FCF easily handles the debt load. This is one that looks fiscally conservative but slow growing. I think this is what most people miss, especially if using screeners. Look at everything, then go look at the 10 year history of share count. Almost every year the share count drops! Which adds shareholder value. The share count has dropped 2% annually over the past 10 years. And FCF has grown at 6% annually. The dividend yield is 3%. All these little things add up!
Valuation is a bit tricky but if you have enough experience with DCF analysis, you don't need a spreadsheet to value this one. You can ballpark it in your head and realize that is is undervalued by X%. I won't say what X is though.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 30,997
- 2,680
- 126
Impressive? You aint seen nuthin' yet!
We need a major overhaul in our national finances and until the debt committee announces something, we will have this drag on the market.
sea of red except coffee stocks...I guess no matter how bad the economy is, people will still need their caffeine (#1 mood altering drug in the world).
To add to IHateMyJob2004,
The best way to fix the deficit is to get the economy going stronger, so revenues will go up and government expenditures on things like stimulus and unemployment will go down. It is quite possible the current deficit reduction bill will actually cause the deficit to get bigger. Idiots.
The best way to fix the deficit is to get the economy going stronger, so revenues will go up and government expenditures on things like stimulus and unemployment will go down. It is quite possible the current deficit reduction bill will actually cause the deficit to get bigger. Idiots.
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
- 18,828
- 184
- 106
Most of it's apparently back-loaded to 10 years later. Some "immediate", but the big stuff will wait?
Regardless, investors don't like it. The most I can wish for right now is that everyone's just so tired of selling that come Friday's shit job numbers, there won't be a massive fall.
Azurik
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
DNDN will get hammered when it opens up after the conference call.
Provenge, the earnings potential is still there for something "battle-tested", but this delayed forecast will kill this stock short-term, especially in today's economic condition.
It's going to be a bad day for me tomorrow.
Provenge, the earnings potential is still there for something "battle-tested", but this delayed forecast will kill this stock short-term, especially in today's economic condition.
It's going to be a bad day for me tomorrow.
Azurik
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
Dendreon earnings follow-up
By David Miller Aug 03, 2011 16:29 pm
The issue with Dendreon (DNDN) is not so much a patient demand problem as hesitancy on the part of prescribing physicians on reimbursement. This is an issue unique to Provenge because the entire $93,000 bill to the doctor's practice is due before they ever find out about reimbursement.
This is the first drug, to our knowledge, whose revenues are being affected by the cash flow statements of the prescribing physicians. Docs will only prescribe what they feel they can risk in their own practice's cash flows.
This will change, however, as reimbursment smooths. the Q-code issued July 1 will make a big difference as will the J-code to be issued January 2012. Both will dramatically smooth and, more importantly, SPEED reimbursement to doctor practices. This should remove considerable overhead from Dendreon's sales efforts.
By David Miller Aug 03, 2011 16:29 pm
The issue with Dendreon (DNDN) is not so much a patient demand problem as hesitancy on the part of prescribing physicians on reimbursement. This is an issue unique to Provenge because the entire $93,000 bill to the doctor's practice is due before they ever find out about reimbursement.
This is the first drug, to our knowledge, whose revenues are being affected by the cash flow statements of the prescribing physicians. Docs will only prescribe what they feel they can risk in their own practice's cash flows.
This will change, however, as reimbursment smooths. the Q-code issued July 1 will make a big difference as will the J-code to be issued January 2012. Both will dramatically smooth and, more importantly, SPEED reimbursement to doctor practices. This should remove considerable overhead from Dendreon's sales efforts.
yeah CBOU! 4 out of 4 earnings plays....I might hold on to my CBOU, it could be the next PNRA or DDRX.
HGSI is also getting murdered after hours. I assume ppl are reacting to this DNDN news. Tomorrow will be uber bad for me too.
Thanks for this
I bought a shit ton of $15 calls yesterday and they sold at 3:57 up 100%
Azurik
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
DNDN is my 2nd biggest investment so it will be very bad. On one side, it's still a big net gain with DNDN overall, but tomorrow will hurt.
The company (and I) didn't take into account the outside factors that will put pressure on demand. While Provenge works and the demand is there, I didn't foresee other factors that played out this quarter.
Live and learn...
I'm not as big into DNDN as that, but HGSI is my largest holding. They're already down a shitload (like 25%) over the last 1.5wks and this will just make it that much worse. I similarly didn't anticipate this business with doctors not wanting to prescribe it b/c of reimbursement red tape.
Ugh I'm similarly still up on both stocks but up by A LOT less all of a sudden. I still feel like both companies have really strong/impt products & will make good money in the future, but this "rocky road" news sucks; I guess I'm either gonna be tied up in these stocks for a good long time now or have to accept vastly reduced profits
Azurik
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
Long-term yes, but short-term is going to be bad. I'm expecting to lose at least $40k tomorrow.
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