***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[ajikan]

I'm hearing lots on an IDCC buyout.. any thoughts?

 

[richardycc]

1000 shares

Woot!!!!!

richardycc, I owe you a six pack...

Oooo free beer...with a little short squeeze, we might see $110 today.

 

[richardycc]

And I owe you a beer I guess technically I have control of 200 shares at $92.50. Hopefully, it'll open above that tomorrow.... think?

you should at least get 2x of what you paid yesterday...

 

[Demo24]

Wow, I remember when GMCR had that period of 'questionable' accounting and dropped to like 30 bucks. I don't know if that ever proved to be true, but I wasn't brave enough to grab any and of course next earnings it did something like this and hasn't looked back.

 

[Azurik]

any gonna play DNKN IPO?

Living in New England, Dunkin Donuts is huge here. There's a store every half a mile it seems. My friend works for Dunkin Brands. Corporate all gave them the ability to buy shares in the teens - she bought a bunch and sold out during yesterday's run-up. They also gave everyone Friday off haha

 

[Imp]

Living in New England, Dunkin Donuts is huge here. There's a store every half a mile it seems. My friend works for Dunkin Brands. Corporate all gave them the ability to buy shares in the teens - she bought a bunch and sold out during yesterday's run-up. They also gave everyone Friday off haha

*shudders* My only experience with Dunkin Donuts was at a rest stop at 1am, and the lady manning the place was obese, and drool and stains all over her shirt. She served me iced coffee and it tasted like ass.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ive been telling you for years we were going to default and nobody believed me:

2006 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=1830818&highlight=default+national

2009 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=324862&highlight=default+national

2010 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2130207&highlight=default+national

Post #4 in this thread, January 2011:

The market will crash 20% or more this year when America is forced into austerity by the countries buying our debt. :'(

Moodys has already threatened to downgrade our AAA credit rating, and may carry out that threat in 2011.

Its common sense. If we cant afford to pay off $15 trillion now, what makes you think we will EVER payoff even more than that? $20T, $40T?

Default is inevitable. A swift and brutal currency devaluation would help alleviate our problem. That too is inevitable. See Mexico, Russia and Argentina for the playbook.

Assuming we only wanted to owe $5t vs $15T, we cut the face value of existing currency to 1/3 its present value. That $1,000 you have in your bank is now only worth $333. A gallon of gas triples to $12 per. Old currency is then exchanged for new currency and the debt is paid with that money.

In the meantime expect food riots, 60% interest rates, etc (see the above mentioned countries for more info). If the government cant sustain the dependent class, they will get what they need somewhere and it will likely mean looting, robbery, etc. I pray that all of that is temporary or the haircut is more palatable. The reason why rates go up on variable rate products is because they have to account for devalued dollars to get the same rate of return.

Nobody cared until it was too late, and they are STILL trying to kick the can. :'(

 

[manlymatt83]

you should at least get 2x of what you paid yesterday...

Sold out Nice gain!!!

 

[manlymatt83]

Ive been telling you for years we were going to default and you laughed at me:

2006 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=1830818&highlight=default+national

2009 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=324862&highlight=default+national

2010 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2130207&highlight=default+national

Post #4 in this thread, January 2011:



Its common sense. If we cant afford to pay off $15 trillion now, what makes you think we will EVER payoff even more than that? $20T, $40T?

Default is inevitable. A swift and brutal currency devaluation would help alleviate our problem. That too is inevitable. See Mexico, Russia and Argentina for the playbook.

Assuming we only wanted to owe $5t vs $15T, we cut the face value of existing currency to 1/3 its present value. That $1,000 you have in your bank is now only worth $333. A gallon of gas triples to $12 per. Old currency is then exchanged for new currency and the debt is paid with that money.

In the meantime expect food riots, 60% interest rates, etc (see the above mentioned countries for more info). If the government cant sustain the dependent class, they will get what they need somewhere and it will likely mean looting, robbery, etc. I pray that all of that is temporary or the haircut is more palatable. The reason why rates go up on variable rate products is because they have to account for devalued dollars to get the same rate of return.

Nobody cared until it was too late, and they are STILL trying to kick the can. :'(

Is anyone hedging themselves against a possible spiral downward with GLD, SLV, QQQ puts, etc.?

 

[LegendKiller]

Ive been telling you for years we were going to default and nobody believed me:

2006 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=1830818&highlight=default+national

2009 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=324862&highlight=default+national

2010 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2130207&highlight=default+national

Post #4 in this thread, January 2011:



Its common sense. If we cant afford to pay off $15 trillion now, what makes you think we will EVER payoff even more than that? $20T, $40T?

Default is inevitable. A swift and brutal currency devaluation would help alleviate our problem. That too is inevitable. See Mexico, Russia and Argentina for the playbook.

Assuming we only wanted to owe $5t vs $15T, we cut the face value of existing currency to 1/3 its present value. That $1,000 you have in your bank is now only worth $333. A gallon of gas triples to $12 per. Old currency is then exchanged for new currency and the debt is paid with that money.

In the meantime expect food riots, 60% interest rates, etc (see the above mentioned countries for more info). If the government cant sustain the dependent class, they will get what they need somewhere and it will likely mean looting, robbery, etc. I pray that all of that is temporary or the haircut is more palatable. The reason why rates go up on variable rate products is because they have to account for devalued dollars to get the same rate of return.

Nobody cared until it was too late, and they are STILL trying to kick the can. :'(

You put a lot of fancy numbers out there and make silly comparisons to countries that have no similarities to the US, but in reality, it's just a bunch of doomsday bunk.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You put a lot of fancy numbers out there and make silly comparisons to countries that have no similarities to the US, but in reality, it's just a bunch of doomsday bunk.

Embrace the truth or the truth will embrace you.

 

[LegendKiller]

Embrace the truth or the truth will brace you.

Whose truth? Yours? How about those 5/21 "truths"? I mean, really, your "truths" have no grounding in reality and are hyperbole trash. Embrace the truth that you are insane.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is anyone hedging themselves against a possible spiral downward with GLD, SLV, QQQ puts, etc.?

The best possible outcome would be a Greek style default. First comes the downgrade, rising interest rates, a 5% market correction. Im sure you remember during the height of the financial crises when the first bailout package was defeated in Congress, the DOW fell 1,000 points in one day. It passed the next business day and rose 1,000 points. Volitility reigned and the DOW eventually fell from 14,000 down to 6,500 before getting back three years later to 11,000.

We will face our debt woes in waves and the public will have time to adjust. Rates will continue to rise as our borrowing power declines. Finally we settle on extending terms and cutting face value of the dollar or bonds.

This is the best possible outcome. And it will happen over time so not much sense in hedging too much, unless you want to short treasuries like Bill Gross at PIMCO has. If a guy running billions of dollars in bonds does it and has become world renowned for it, dont you think its a good idea?

 

[manlymatt83]

The best possible outcome would be a Greek style default. First comes the downgrade, rising interest rates, a 5% market correction. Im sure you remember during the height of the financial crises when the first bailout package was defeated in Congress, the DOW fell 1,000 points in one day. It passed the next business day and rose 1,000 points. Volitility reigned and the DOW eventually fell from 14,000 down to 6,500 before getting back three years later to 11,000.

We will face or debt woes in waves and the public will have time to adjust. Rates will continue to rise as our borrowing power declines. Finally we settle on extending terms and cutting face value of the dollar or bonds.

This is the best possible outcome. And it will happen over time so not much sense in hedging too much, unless you want to short treasuries like Bill Gross at PIMCO has. If a guy running billions of dollars in bonds does it and has become world renowned for it, dont you think its a good idea?

Maybe I'll just keep buying silver. That'll be a good bet.

 

[LegendKiller]

The best possible outcome would be a Greek style default. First comes the downgrade, rising interest rates, a 5% market correction. Im sure you remember during the height of the financial crises when the first bailout package was defeated in Congress, the DOW fell 1,000 points in one day. It passed the next business day and rose 1,000 points. Volitility reigned and the DOW eventually fell from 14,000 down to 6,500 before getting back three years later to 11,000.

We will face or debt woes in waves and the public will have time to adjust. Rates will continue to rise as our borrowing power declines. Finally we settle on extending terms and cutting face value of the dollar or bonds.

This is the best possible outcome. And it will happen over time so not much sense in hedging too much, unless you want to short treasuries like Bill Gross at PIMCO has. If a guy running billions of dollars in bonds does it and has become world renowned for it, dont you think its a good idea?

1. Comparisons to Russia or Mexico are moronic. Neither of those country's governments, militaries, economies, or people can be compared. No two default situations are exactly the same and comparing them, carte blanche, is silly.

2. The worst possible outcome would be a Greece default. All that has done is add more debt.

3. I do remember the dip, but it wasn't how you described and hasn't even reasonably been tied to your riduculous claims.

4. You kept saying our investors would force us into austerity - but that's been proven wrong, right? China *HAS* to buy our debt, so any claims of austerity there is wrong. Nobody has even mentioned it.

5. Your scenario doesn't even fit - you don't even consider trade surpluses and the inevitable purchase of USTs as a result. You don't even consider a weakening dollar will decrease foreign competition, result in homesourcing, and increase tax revenue. All you do is say, "whelp, everything must go down!", what a foolish and simplistic viewpoint.

6. PIMCO was barely "shorting" bonds and has already begun buying them back. There are many more debt managers that are just fine holding USTs. I guess Gross is somehow smarter than the whole market, even though we already know he isn't. Buffett and Gates are just fine holding US assets and don't seem too worried about any downgrade and are betting on a strengthening US, but I guess the world's richest men compare poorly to a guy who just manages a lot of money rather than owning a lot of money.

In summary you're a nut.

 

[FelixDeCat]

1. Comparisons to Russia or Mexico are moronic. Neither of those country's governments, militaries, economies, or people can be compared. No two default situations are exactly the same and comparing them, carte blanche, is silly.

2. The worst possible outcome would be a Greece default. All that has done is add more debt.

3. I do remember the dip, but it wasn't how you described and hasn't even reasonably been tied to your riduculous claims.

4. You kept saying our investors would force us into austerity - but that's been proven wrong, right? China *HAS* to buy our debt, so any claims of austerity there is wrong. Nobody has even mentioned it.

5. Your scenario doesn't even fit - you don't even consider trade surpluses and the inevitable purchase of USTs as a result. You don't even consider a weakening dollar will decrease foreign competition, result in homesourcing, and increase tax revenue. All you do is say, "whelp, everything must go down!", what a foolish and simplistic viewpoint.

6. PIMCO was barely "shorting" bonds and has already begun buying them back. There are many more debt managers that are just fine holding USTs. I guess Gross is somehow smarter than the whole market, even though we already know he isn't. Buffett and Gates are just fine holding US assets and don't seem too worried about any downgrade and are betting on a strengthening US, but I guess the world's richest men compare poorly to a guy who just manages a lot of money rather than owning a lot of money.

In summary you're a nut.

You are free to disagree, but be careful with the personal attacks or Ill have to put you on ignore for a period of no less than 90 days. That should give you a chance to learn how to keep things impersonal.

 

[cliftonite]

You are free to disagree, but be careful with the personal attacks or Ill have to put you on ignore for a period of no less than 90 days. That should give you a chance to learn how to keep things impersonal.

Yes, I'm sure he will lose sleep if you put him on ignore.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yes, I'm sure he will lose sleep if you put him on ignore.

What he does as a result is his own business. I just ask that we remain civil in our discourse despite our passionate viewpoints. ()

 

[Pliablemoose]

Perhaps you 2 could take your discussion out of the stock thread to P&N...

 

[LegendKiller]

You are free to disagree, but be careful with the personal attacks or Ill have to put you on ignore for a period of no less than 90 days. That should give you a chance to learn how to keep things impersonal.

Shoot, score. You just cry about personal attacks but do not even try to refute the info. Wound me mortally, put me on ignore, but at least your paper-thin arguments have been shot down for all to see.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shoot, score. You just cry about personal attacks but do not even try to refute the info. Wound me mortally, put me on ignore, but at least your paper-thin arguments have been shot down for all to see.

No you havent, but thats ok. We have both stated our opinions and leave it at that. No need to declare a winner and a loser. Thats childish.

If you really want to go on ignore Ill oblige you and you can call yourself a winner as much as you want until November 1, 2011.

Enjoy the default Ive been predicting for years now.

 

[JS80]

You are free to disagree, but be careful with the personal attacks or Ill have to put you on ignore for a period of no less than 90 days. That should give you a chance to learn how to keep things impersonal.

He's not disagreeing with you. He's stating facts. A disagreement would be if he gave his opinion.

 

[LegendKiller]

No you havent, but thats ok. We have both stated our opinions and leave it at that. No need to declare a winner and a loser. Thats childish.

If you really want to go on ignore Ill oblige you and you can call yourself a winner as much as you want until November 1, 2011.

Enjoy the default Ive been predicting for years now.

Sure I have, you posted up points, I countered them. You didn't state opinions, you stated "truths" which were nothing more than trash. You know who doesn't want to declare a winner or losser in a debate, the loser of the debate. That's why you won't go any further.

If you feel so strongly about your "truths", let's put money on it. Is 11/1/11 your big day? why?

I predict the sun will raise tomorrow. Wow, great, I can make prognostications that will come true, eventually.

Here's my prognostication. This is all nothing more than theater. Every penny of interest will be paid on USTs and any maturing USTs will be rolled to new ones, thus, there will be no default on the USTs.

That's why the bond market has largely yawned on this. The USG simply won't "default" and effectively can't. Money printing doesn't have to be huge, which is why TIPs haven't increased much in price, especially in a deflationary environment with plenty of manufacturing slack and wage stagnation through unemployment.

Now, you can shove that down your pipe and smoke it, or you can rationalize.

 

[FelixDeCat]

He's not disagreeing with you. He's stating facts. A disagreement would be if he gave his opinion.

If a rational and intelligent man (such as myself) can come to a conclusion and state an opinion based on the facts as I have gathered, why is he wrong to state them? I am referring to myself.

I cant read LK's posts now. Im hoping that he has aknowledged his transgression and is ready to put this behind us. I know I am.

We have agreed and disagreed before, so I dont understand the hostility. Im looking forward to hearing from him again soon.

Hopefully the best case scenario as I have outlined above is what happens next week when default occurs. The other scenario will be disasterous.

 

[Azurik]

I personally don't think that doomsday scenario will happen... not in our lifetime anyway. Even if I'm wrong, as I've said before, there is really no safe hiding place. The United States is the single sole superpower in the world, and our economy makes up 20% of the global GDP, or 25% at purchasing pricing parity (PPP). If our country gets to that state, the world will follow. A lot of emerging countries and developing countries depend on us, even for our debt. They need to export their goods to a consumer nation.

We have to figure out our debt, yes. We owe a lot, yes. We're a net debtor, yes. But percentage wise to our GDP we're not that bad. Everyone talks about the actual debt #, but doesn't compare it to anything else that's relative.

Look, if one person makes $1,000 per year and a car cost $500, that's a big problem. If he makes $1,000,000 annually, than $500 is a drop in the bucket. Why are we using numbers rather than percentages and ratios?

For humor only, if you're seeking a safe haven, just buy a ton of houses and mortgage them with a low fixed rate. If the dollar tumbles, guess what? You own homes for pennies on the dollars.