***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[manlymatt83]

Anyone playing any put action for the weekend? I bought a few SLV calls just to CMA "in case". Worth the risk for me.

 

[jessieqwert]

Anyone playing any put action for the weekend? I bought a few SLV calls just to CMA "in case". Worth the risk for me.

Shorting CLWR at $3 strike.

I'm long DNKN for now, seeing if I can get a few more points out of it

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Bought some USG Aug 13 calls ;-) it's gambling but I could not resist. I have 20 days for USG to go from $11.38 to $13+. I think there is a chance ...

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm sitting out for now, Wall Street has pretty well ignored DC's theatrics so far, but it could get pretty crazy...

 

[Imp]

May throw a bit in tomorrow morning. Betting on a short rally before Friday's job reports IF they manage not to default.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm sitting out for now, Wall Street has pretty well ignored DC's theatrics so far, but it could get pretty crazy...

Last week saw the largest one week drop in the Dow indices all year. The Dow dropped 4%.

They will increase the debt limit. There is no way around it. Not even politicians are stupid enough to not raise it.

They've just tried to use it as a political pawn. Pathetic. I am getting close to joining the camp of voting everyone out of office next chance I get. maybe that way, the poor and middle class will not have to pay increased taxes (effectively what is happening when the rich pay less to "create jobs")

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Ive been telling you for years we were going to default and nobody believed me:

2006 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=1830818&highlight=default+national

2009 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=324862&highlight=default+national

2010 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2130207&highlight=default+national

Post #4 in this thread, January 2011:



Its common sense. If we cant afford to pay off $15 trillion now, what makes you think we will EVER payoff even more than that? $20T, $40T?

Default is inevitable. A swift and brutal currency devaluation would help alleviate our problem. That too is inevitable. See Mexico, Russia and Argentina for the playbook.

Assuming we only wanted to owe $5t vs $15T, we cut the face value of existing currency to 1/3 its present value. That $1,000 you have in your bank is now only worth $333. A gallon of gas triples to $12 per. Old currency is then exchanged for new currency and the debt is paid with that money.

In the meantime expect food riots, 60% interest rates, etc (see the above mentioned countries for more info). If the government cant sustain the dependent class, they will get what they need somewhere and it will likely mean looting, robbery, etc. I pray that all of that is temporary or the haircut is more palatable. The reason why rates go up on variable rate products is because they have to account for devalued dollars to get the same rate of return.

Nobody cared until it was too late, and they are STILL trying to kick the can. :'(

This should make for a good laugh in a few years.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

Overseas market action is a good indicator of what we'll see tomorrow in our own markets. Even though the deal is not sealed yet, it is a turning point.

 

[Imp]

Overseas market action is a good indicator of what we'll see tomorrow in our own markets. Even though the deal is not sealed yet, it is a turning point.

Debating whether I should buy at open or wait a bit... I try (and fail a lot) at only buying after 10:15 to 10:30.

Wonder if the market will overlook Friday's job numbers. Gotten use to the bad news?

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

Debating whether I should buy at open or wait a bit... I try (and fail a lot) at only buying after 10:15 to 10:30.

Wonder if the market will overlook Friday's job numbers. Gotten use to the bad news?

Buy at open and sell within the first 30-45 minutes if you've reached your target. The first hour usually sees the most action up or down.

 

[Imp]

Well, completely effed that up.

Down like 5% since yesterday. The reward for passing of the debt bill was a steep 1% drop of the DOW. Hope I can recover most of my monies when people get tired of selling... 9 days in a row.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well, completely effed that up.

Down like 5% since yesterday. The reward for passing of the debt bill was a steep 1% drop of the DOW. Hope I can recover most of my monies when people get tired of selling... 9 days in a row.

Thats because the market knows calamity or at least austerity is now closer to reality.

 

[SSSnail]

I'm stocked up on dry powder, getting ready to fire when chaos comes, it will come.

 

[richardycc]

anyone else playing CBOU for their earnings tomorrow night? This is another K-cups/coffee play.

 

[ajikan]

man I was up 1200 yesterday, then down to red today. hope things pick up soon.

 

[Acanthus]

Thats because the market knows calamity or at least austerity is now closer to reality.

Yup, austerity will bitch slap sales of high end staples pretty hard. Especially stuff that people can put off like clothing, shoes, and other hardlines.

 

[Imp]

The big tech stocks are holding up surprisingly well despite everything else falling around them. Namely AAPL, GOOG and MSFT.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

Well, completely effed that up.

Down like 5% since yesterday. The reward for passing of the debt bill was a steep 1% drop of the DOW. Hope I can recover most of my monies when people get tired of selling... 9 days in a row.

Imagine what kind of drop we would have experienced if the bill did not get passed. 5% or more in a single day?

Are we to see another 9 more straight days of sell offs? I am tempted to catch a falling knife. I know I shouldn't, but the rebel in me is telling me otherwise.

 

[theeedude]

The market wants long term cuts but short term stimulus. We only got the former. Until the policymakers get on the latter, I'd take a wait and see approach.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Well, my USG options are not doing so well. Kidna pissed. I was goign to sell some stock off when the Dow hit 13,000. Dang nabbit.

 

[Azurik]

Yup, austerity will bitch slap sales of high end staples pretty hard. Especially stuff that people can put off like clothing, shoes, and other hardlines.

True to a certain degree, but you'd be surprised how recessions proof high-end retailers are. Affluent families won't stop buying designer clothing because the U.S. is in turmoil.

 

[SSSnail]

True to a certain degree, but you'd be surprised how recessions proof high-end retailers are. Affluent families won't stop buying designer clothing because the U.S. is in turmoil.

Another reason is that poor people will also want to purchase the higher end goods, or expensive - they want to feel better. They also wants to "show off", which explains why aapl is doing so well.

 

[blipblop]

Bought some SPY calls at 130 that expire in 17 days to see if I pick up a bounce.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Another reason is that poor people will also want to purchase the higher end goods, or expensive - they want to feel better. They also wants to "show off", which explains why aapl is doing so well.

Less government spending means fewer government employees. Means less government employees? Wait. WTF! OK, so all that money that would have trickled into the economy from the spending of those employees will employoy less people at Wal-mart, Starbucks .... wait. WTF!

Good job government! The one time you do not want to cut spending ... and you do. Good job! I don't know the details, but government spending should not slow for 1-2 years. This is a potential disaster brewing.

 

[Imp]

Imagine what kind of drop we would have experienced if the bill did not get passed. 5% or more in a single day?

Are we to see another 9 more straight days of sell offs? I am tempted to catch a falling knife. I know I shouldn't, but the rebel in me is telling me otherwise.

I stupidly woke up at 9:30 (day off) and bought thinking there would be a rally like every time there was "good news" on the debt "crisis". So, I lost the 2% 9:30 gain plus the subsequent slump. I deserve it though - broke every rule I have about not buying before 10:30-ish. Oh well, hoping the next rally at least puts me at break-even. Otherwise, all in blue-chips, so give it 5 years?

Less government spending means fewer government employees. Means less government employees? Wait. WTF! OK, so all that money that would have trickled into the economy from the spending of those employees will employoy less people at Wal-mart, Starbucks .... wait. WTF!

Good job government! The one time you do not want to cut spending ... and you do. Good job! I don't know the details, but government spending should not slow for 1-2 years. This is a potential disaster brewing.

No one likey the gubment employee. Dirty union leaches making liveable wages and having reasonable benefits. Seriously, there is a huge anti-union movement in my city. Lot of union bashing, bitching about how government employees are overpaid, etc. It's never about how private sector it's underpaid, it's how government is overpaid... Rarely complaints either from these same people about people at the top with multi-million dollar bonuses. It's the gubment unions...