***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

Mental goal/barrier. I do it too sometimes, before I just say "eff it" and just buy/sell. But I day/week trade, so I'm assuming the mental barrier is stronger for those who don't buy/sell as often.

You just volunteered yourself.

OK, I'll start the thread when the time is right ;-) 2500+ posts in one thread. Impressive.

 

[Hugo Drax]

NFLX in and out 71.97/7401. 1500 shares

Curious how was your order executed all at once or filled in multiple lots? Which exchanges filled your order and time stamps on the fills.

Interested in how it all panned out.

You should post a little more detail.

 

[mshan]

Question for market pro types who have access to complete 2012 investing theses from Wall Street firms:

What exactly do the more bullish firms see as catalyst for powerful upward move in markets starting some time around mid-year 2012?


-> Do they think market will force central bank hands and result in massive, coordinated quantitative easing all around the world some time next year to prevent a global recession? (Fortress America?: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000062616)


-> Is it simply resolution of political uncertainty in the U. S. (will Obama get re-elected?), Germany (will Merkel and her coalition continue to hold power?), to a lesser extent will Sarkozy hold power, and one way or the other, clarity on whether the ultimate path forward is going to be harsh austerity / deflation vs. expansionary monetary policy / stimulus / inflationary printing of money? ( I base this on Ken Moelis's previous comment on CNBC regarding Cameron's UK decision to put themselves on definite 5 year austerity plan, irrespective of social consequences (he said that is at least invest-able from investment banking point of view)

Was watching CNBC Asia earlier and some talking head said Europe represents about 1/3 of global GDP and someone else (UBS currency strategist) said according to their study, Eurozone breakup would mean 50% GDP cut in first year for weaker Eurozone members and 20% GDP cut in first year for stronger ones (I think he said ultimately this pain would be too high and ECB may be forced to print).

Earlier in year, I also have seen bullish strategists use Asian Financial Crisis as template for what is currently occuring. I think some talking head (IHS?) said something like 30% of global gdp went off line then but that US stock market was still able to rally hard into year 2000.


-> Or is it something totally else?

 

[Imp]

Curious how was your order executed all at once or filled in multiple lots? Which exchanges filled your order and time stamps on the fills.

Interested in how it all panned out.

You should post a little more detail.

My trader usually sells in 100 unit "slots", but it's all done within seconds of me confirming. If I want to price to remain stable, I set a sell limit price.

For a pretty high volume stock like NFLX (CNN says 3 month trailing is 10.5 million daily, today was 5 million), 1500 shouldn't be too hard to fill at a stable-ish price. Looking at DOW volumes today, the lowest individual stock is 4.4 million, and it's close to Christmas, so volumes may (emphasis) even be lower than usual.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I think we got into this conversation about AAPL earnings last time. Old Wall Street got it closer this quarter than all the previous combined. Sales will plateau for AAPL at some point and the Twitter perma bull AAPL fanbois will get it wrong.

With only 10% of the world having smartphones, and ~35% of the US, there's a ton of growth in mobile left.

I expect iPad sales will slow a bit pending the iPad 3's release, but the 4S has been selling like crazy, the MBA's are selling very well, and haven't been affected by the hdd shortage, and they have very little competition at this point.

Christmas sales are reasonable so far, so I think Apple should do pretty well, the explosive growth is likely gone, and Apple is getting so large, it takes massive sales to move the numbers now... As always, we shall see.

The best thing I've found with Apple is that it does tend to go from the bottom left to the top right of the chart, so if you screw up an entry point, you can just wait and sell at a profit later. I do find it funny when people get so emotional about a stock because of their personal bias. Money is money, as long as I make it, I could give a shit about who likes what OS. Frankly, it's a fatal error to be that involved emotionally with any company. I buy and sell RIMM, and I think they're a massive POS, managed by fools. The money I make is green, and it still spends, if I make it from Apple consumers or people that like BlackBerries or their respective stock, I grin all the way to the bank.

Curious how was your order executed all at once or filled in multiple lots? Which exchanges filled your order and time stamps on the fills.

Interested in how it all panned out.

You should post a little more detail.

I was in and out in ~50 minutes, sold in 5 separate transactions, within seconds, all but 2 were in 100 lots, the last two were odd numbers, but added up to a 100 multiple.

I really don't pay attention to that stuff, it's just data that I don't really care about...

 

[richardycc]

Bought some COIN today. I've been watching COIN for over a year now, traded it a few times They just did a 10 to 1 reserve split and the stock is trading like the company is BK. insiders are still buying, and one family just bought a $hitload of it last week, maybe he has some insider inform, he was caught money laundering few yrs ago. lol..the only way I can lose is if the company file for BK, but I think some insiders lost too much money for that to happen, we will see.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

richard,

How much debt?
What is the interest on that debt?
Is the debt coming due soon?
What does COIN do in terms of normalized FCF?

Some basic questions about BK. The insider buying is nice but meaningless in terms of solvency. It is a good reason to investigate though meaning that the insider buying might be due to the dact that BK is unlikely.

UPDATE 1: 2 minutes in ..... So, what are those warrants all about? Any dilution related to them?
UPDATE 2: Split second later. Oh they have convertable debt. What's the deal with that?
UPDATE 3: Huh: "Converted Organics Announces Clarification to Medical Marijuana Inc. Option Agreement"

 

[richardycc]

richard,

How much debt?
What is the interest on that debt?
Is the debt coming due soon?
What does COIN do in terms of normalized FCF?

Some basic questions about BK. The insider buying is nice but meaningless in terms of solvency. It is a good reason to investigate though meaning that the insider buying might be due to the dact that BK is unlikely.

UPDATE 1: 2 minutes in ..... So, what are those warrants all about? Any dilution related to them?
UPDATE 2: Split second later. Oh they have convertable debt. What's the deal with that?
UPDATE 3: Huh: "Converted Organics Announces Clarification to Medical Marijuana Inc. Option Agreement"

lol, a debt free and profitable company doesn't trade at 0.005/share, actually their debt isn't that bad, they are coverting their debt into equity, so they could be debt free one day. This is a purely risk and reward play, some company you don't even have to look at their balance sheet to see if it's a good "investment". this is one of them. If you wanna take a look, their income statement was out few days ago, not pretty.

 

[JTsyo]

lol, a debt free and profitable company doesn't trade at 0.005/share, actually their debt isn't that bad, they are coverting their debt into equity, so they could be debt free one day. This is a purely risk and reward play, some company you don't even have to look at their balance sheet to see if it's a good "investment". this is one of them. If you wanna take a look, their income statement was out few days ago, not pretty.

how low can a stock go? Seems much lower and they'll be into rounding errors.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm going to read up on COIN later ... if I have time ... which I probably won't.

 

[The-Noid]

how low can a stock go? Seems much lower and they'll be into rounding errors.

I've never seen a price that low with volume that high.

COIN-U 0.0050 Chg +0.0011 B5 .0047 A5 0.0050 250x3080 Vlm 9258975
U @ 1:41 Opn 0.0044 Hi 0.0060 Lo 0.0036 AH 5.1850 AL 0.0031 LTV 10000
BTC: 74 PCls 0.0036 EPS -.20 PE NA Div Yld Ex **/**/**
Beta: 1.24 %Chg +30.56 CE NA FPE Dow RTR FC
CONVERTED ORGANICS INC NEW ID 21254S404 VWAP 0.0046 Cur USD Mkt Cap .10

Weird as hell.

 

[Imp]

Nudging my way back into oil sands. Two straight weeks of sell-offs, not too shabby longer term prospects in case I screw up.

 

[JTsyo]

Article of EFTs. SPY was the one I was using to get the whole market. Even though the fund loses money in fees it seems worthwhile, since you don't have to buy multiple stocks.

What's an EFT that's leveraged on the S&P?

 

[Imp]

Looks like this "sideways" movement is going to be typical for the next week or two. Damn holidays...

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

COIN

I spent soem time on this. Everyone needs to read the latest 10-Q and the 10-K risk factors. Forget the math.

COIN is trying (has tried to) to become a diversified company. They have taken out leases and never built plants which just drain cash. And they have never been profitable. Cash from ops has been negative every year also (I think).

Unless people are aware of some sort of engenious move that management is currently working on, your $0.005 is about to become $0.00000.

Now if someone sees a turnaround at this place, please explain it. If I am in concurrence with your thesis, i'll even toss $100 at it. That all that is needed for this if a turn around was to actually occur.

personally, I am still pissed at not buying PIR several years ago. My mistake was that I did not read the 10-Ks, etc when it tanked. I did not know that they were totally changing the busienss model.

Anyway, if COIN has a plan for a turn around like PIR did, please inform us.

 

[KB]

Article of EFTs. SPY was the one I was using to get the whole market. Even though the fund loses money in fees it seems worthwhile, since you don't have to buy multiple stocks.

What's an EFT that's leveraged on the S&P?

SPY is actually based on the S&P 500 so you are in the right place. Despite what the article says, its not a bad place to be. Its diversified to reduce risk and the S&P 500 should continue to growth their earnings. The management fee of the ETF is only 0.10%, far lower than most mutual funds. And yes the owners of these funds make big money, but thats only from volume and not because they are stealing from investors (that I know of). SPY also pays a dividend which is much greater than the management fee takes from you, so even if the market never moves you will still make money.

I would also look into SDY for more dividends and IWS for Mid-Cap diversification.

 

[Miramonti]

Tried to short grpn at the close @ 24.75..."not available for short sale" (IB). Oh well, not sure wft was going on with it.

 

[The-Noid]

Tried to short grpn at the close @ 24.75..."not available for short sale" (IB). Oh well, not sure wft was going on with it.

It's hard to borrow or restricted still at a lot of places.

Only banks good clients got to be blown up into the close today.

You can find it but you have to look..could be a failure to deliver problem with IBD.

 

[sniperruff]

It's hard to borrow or restricted still at a lot of places.

Only banks good clients got to be blown up into the close today.

You can find it but you have to look...my guess is there is going to be a lot of 4320's after the pop today.

why not just buy some puts?

 

[sniperruff]

COIN

I spent soem time on this. Everyone needs to read the latest 10-Q and the 10-K risk factors. Forget the math.

COIN is trying (has tried to) to become a diversified company. They have taken out leases and never built plants which just drain cash. And they have never been profitable. Cash from ops has been negative every year also (I think).

Unless people are aware of some sort of engenious move that management is currently working on, your $0.005 is about to become $0.00000.

Now if someone sees a turnaround at this place, please explain it. If I am in concurrence with your thesis, i'll even toss $100 at it. That all that is needed for this if a turn around was to actually occur.

personally, I am still pissed at not buying PIR several years ago. My mistake was that I did not read the 10-Ks, etc when it tanked. I did not know that they were totally changing the busienss model.

Anyway, if COIN has a plan for a turn around like PIR did, please inform us.

it seems like someone is trying to pitch his penny stock here.

 

[The-Noid]

why not just buy some puts?

The carrying costs on the puts is ridiculous compared to shorting. Even the short dated Jan 23's trade for $2.75. Carrying costs s 10 fold that of the short.

 

[JS80]

The carrying costs on the puts is ridiculous compared to shorting. Even the short dated Jan 23's trade for $2.75. Carrying costs s 10 fold that of the short.

make sure you understand the borrowing cost of hard to short securities

 

[The-Noid]

make sure you understand the borrowing cost of hard to short securities

Its not hard to borrow everywhere. It is even available electronically a couple of places.

That is always good advice though.

 

[Miramonti]

It's hard to borrow or restricted still at a lot of places.

Only banks good clients got to be blown up into the close today.

You can find it but you have to look...my guess is there is going to be a lot of 4320's after the pop today.

As long as it's been trading and as relatively liquid as it is it didn't dawn on me it would have been an issue. I didn't even get a standard message saying my order would be held while they search for securities, just wouldn't allow shorting at all. (altho would search when testing a short after the close.)

why not just buy some puts?

It didn't dawn on me to try buying puts, but imho it's not really something one wants to just dive into buying during a fast market, and I doubt I would have done anything.

Overall I'm not one to short a surging stock at the close on friday afternoon, but grpn seemed pretty low risk that someone was front-running something great to be announced before monday's open.

 

[lothar]

Article of EFTs. SPY was the one I was using to get the whole market. Even though the fund loses money in fees it seems worthwhile, since you don't have to buy multiple stocks.

What's an EFT that's leveraged on the S&P?

The guy that wrote that article sounds like an idiot.
Is he trying to advise people to buy mutual funds which charge even higher management fees or what?