***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

holy crap RIG is lower than BP spill levels...anyone follow RIG? Why down in the dumps?

 

[manly]

The guy that wrote that article sounds like an idiot.
Is he trying to advise people to buy mutual funds which charge even higher management fees or what?

lol read the writer's bio at the end of the piece, it's hilarious.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

lol read the writer's bio at the end of the piece, it's hilarious.

Ouch, my brain. Sadly, half the people read that and think he is a genius of some sort.

 

[The-Noid]

holy crap RIG is lower than BP spill levels...anyone follow RIG? Why down in the dumps?

Offshore oil spill in Brazil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...l-in-brazil-prompts-10-6-billion-lawsuit.html

Some claims are it is 10x the size of the Deepwater Horizon spill, but I think those estimates are pie in the sky. It's probably more than the 3,000 barrel official estimate but either way the rumor remains that RIG will get kicked out of the country.

Rig is obviously right in the middle again and has been sold since the spill came out.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Value Investors .... currently reading about this one:

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...0&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:ISCA&ntsp=0

Doesn't look hugely undervalued at a glimpse but it looks to be very sound.

 

[richardycc]

COIN

I spent soem time on this. Everyone needs to read the latest 10-Q and the 10-K risk factors. Forget the math.

COIN is trying (has tried to) to become a diversified company. They have taken out leases and never built plants which just drain cash. And they have never been profitable. Cash from ops has been negative every year also (I think).

Unless people are aware of some sort of engenious move that management is currently working on, your $0.005 is about to become $0.00000.

Now if someone sees a turnaround at this place, please explain it. If I am in concurrence with your thesis, i'll even toss $100 at it. That all that is needed for this if a turn around was to actually occur.

personally, I am still pissed at not buying PIR several years ago. My mistake was that I did not read the 10-Ks, etc when it tanked. I did not know that they were totally changing the busienss model.

Anyway, if COIN has a plan for a turn around like PIR did, please inform us.

no turn around plan that I can see. I am happy if they can just stay in business, and hopefully eventually get bought out. Like I said b4, this is a high risk and high reward play, judging from some of the stocks you've mentioned in here, it looks like you like undervalued stocks with a decent balance sheet, and this one is definitely not one of them. I love high risk stocks and I've put in less than $2k into this company, I am ok if I lost all of it. The # of shares that I own now would've cost someone over $40million less than 2yrs ago. (you read that right, yes, $40million, of course taken the dilution out of the calculation.) Will I make millions from this? probably not, would I make more than $2k from this? I sure hope so.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I sold my 1 of BRK.A and bought Apple for a ride into earnings, not sure if I'll sell before earnings or not.

Hoping for a nice ramp up into earnings next month, am guessing about a 10% bump or better.

 

[Imp]

Damn. Markets way up. Both C and my other stocks were well into my buy target price, but the Euro has reached a point of shitbagging in my mind, so I have close to zip confidence in playing with any banks. Maybe WFC, but that's too high.

Wonder if they'll downgrade France et al's credit ratings over the Christmas holiday next week. Kind of like taking the 'release news late Friday or Saturday to reduce the fallout'.

 

[hiromizu]

Damn. Markets way up. Both C and my other stocks were well into my buy target price, but the Euro has reached a point of shitbagging in my mind, so I have close to zip confidence in playing with any banks. Maybe WFC, but that's too high.

Wonder if they'll downgrade France et al's credit ratings over the Christmas holiday next week. Kind of like taking the 'release news late Friday or Saturday to reduce the fallout'.

I think it's possible that we'll see a short term rally but overall I'm very optimistic about a continued long term down trend overall as the global deleveraging continues. I think this is truly the big one but politics always gets in the way and massive short covering takes place so that'll throw off a few short term traders. I'm about 30% cash now and will buy up some stocks when my BSI reduces to a simmer. I think we'll probably see a situation when stocks will become too cheap and that's the time to buy.

Predicting the Euro resolution will be tough I think but just looking at people around me and the overall pessmistic mood of consumers, I just can't imagine another round of QE by anyone as it pretty much hurts everyone by increasing the cost of living without really increasing your income. Just imagine how bad it is for those living paycheck to paycheck while their spending (just to survive) just creeps up higher and higher. There's no way they are going to buy a car or a house at these prices. Everyone will try to pay off debt and save more and thus I think inflation is over fuckin extended and it's time to chill out for a good while.

Stagnation or deflation. I'm in that camp for now. Just buy Walmart or any consumer staples that pays a dividend if you're going to buy any stocks.

 

[RbSX]

This whole thing the last few weeks just boggles my mind, base metals and commodities are down, markets are still levitating. Most of my investments are in volatility linked funds, which should be high as the moon, but apparently "Risk on!".

Unreal.

 

[JTsyo]

I'm thinking of getting into a leveraged EFT next time the market dips. Specifically ProShares UltraPro S&P 500. Any thoughts? The other option was go long term with a dividend EFT.

 

[The-Noid]

I sold my 1 of BRK.A and bought Apple for a ride into earnings, not sure if I'll sell before earnings or not.

Hoping for a nice ramp up into earnings next month, am guessing about a 10% bump or better.

What do you pay bid/offer on a retail account in BRK'A?

 

[hiromizu]

I'm thinking of getting into a leveraged EFT next time the market dips. Specifically ProShares UltraPro S&P 500. Any thoughts? The other option was go long term with a dividend EFT.

I think it's stupid to trade like that. After the run up assuming you timed it right, you own a leveraged ETF that pays no dividends while good stocks will be sitting at higher levels. Where do you go from there? Sell it and sit in cash while waiting for another crash?

If you're going to play the timing game and lever like that you might as well throw a shitload of money into calls on IWM (index fund) and you'll make out like a bandit.

 

[The-Noid]

This whole thing the last few weeks just boggles my mind, base metals and commodities are down, markets are still levitating. Most of my investments are in volatility linked funds, which should be high as the moon, but apparently "Risk on!".

Unreal.

Problem is there is huge seasonality in vol. Last two weeks of the year people come in with flat books that need no hedging. Vol is two sided.

You have to look at not only the macro environment but also the overall seasonality of trading, if you are looking at equity vol.

JPUSSTVL Index <GO> is fairly good if you want to track a vol index.

Vol is one of the hardest concepts to understand, especially when you look at some of the 3d vol skews, not just the simple VIX Index. Make sure you understand what is going on, because investing in vol going into the end of the year you are going to get crushed by the banks and hedgies that have tons of vol to sell into year end.

 

[The-Noid]

I think it's stupid to trade like that. After the run up assuming you timed it right, you own a leveraged ETF that pays no dividends while good stocks will be sitting at higher levels. Where do you go from there? Sell it and sit in cash while waiting for another crash?

If you're going to play the timing game and lever like that you might as well throw a shitload of money into calls on IWM (index fund) and you'll make out like a bandit.

BETA is a four letter word right now though, no?

 

[KB]

I'm thinking of getting into a leveraged EFT next time the market dips. Specifically ProShares UltraPro S&P 500. Any thoughts? The other option was go long term with a dividend EFT.

Do both. SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and it pays a 2% dividend. You get the best of both worlds. Due to the volatility in the market it is best to have some income potential.

 

[Imp]

Markets holding steady, but my C is up another 5&#37;. Damn. Let the Euro risk get to me. If I started moving in when it hit the $24.50 mark like I said I wanted to... Oh well, woulda, shoulda, coulda.

 

[JTsyo]

Do both. SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and it pays a 2&#37; dividend. You get the best of both worlds. Due to the volatility in the market it is best to have some income potential.

Did SPY last time and got 3% return. But with the leveraged one it should be higher. I don't plan to hold it long enough for the dividends to matter. For the dividends route I would pick SDY with 3%, but that's only $300 a year with what I have.

Not sure how calls work. I just getting my feet wet with EFTs.

 

[TheBDB]

What is going on with SD?

 

[Miramonti]

What is going on with SD?

News, $1B joint venture of some sort.

/edit: seeing that you asked 10 minutes ago, you probably already saw that.

 

[TheBDB]

News, $1B joint venture of some sort.

/edit: seeing that you asked 10 minutes ago, you probably already saw that.

The latest news article at the time was talking about a buyout, but now I see something about what you posted.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Sucks ... I had a limit order in to buy SD for $6.09 or something along those lines. Dang nabbit.

 

[Imp]

Looks like we'll get our Christmas rally afterall. Still 60&#37; cash, but my single holding is moving nicely: thank god for "brute force" tactics (assload of money + minimal percentage gain).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Imp,

I went from 5&#37; cash to like 80% cash to about 5% to 15% cash in the past 2-3 weeks.

Once i went to 80%, I worried about the upside potential. Bought everything back pretty much and dropped my cost basis maybe 1% (if that).

last move: I just dumped my MAS holding at $9.89 and it is now at $10.20. I intend to buy back for $9 or so or never buy it back.

 

[Pliablemoose]

What do you pay bid/offer on a retail account in BRK'A?

In at 112,000 or so, out at 114,250.

Not sure if I'll keep Apple through earnings, we shall see how nervous I get.