***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

Let's keep the personal attacks out of this thread please. Otherwise, we may all be targeted as we will all make mistakes with market timing.

Also, varying amounts of disposable income per individual monetary ability make it impolite to discuss monetary amounts. Communicating the percentages gets the message across without exposing relative income levels.

If someone risking a relatively large amount of cash earned 67% and then commented on it, that could be perceived as bragging by someone with only a few thousand to play with.

The quality and usefulness of this thread will disappear if personal attacks continue.

Couldn't have said it better.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Let's keep the personal attacks out of this thread please. Otherwise, we may all be targeted as we will all make mistakes with market timing.

Also, varying amounts of disposable income per individual monetary ability make it impolite to discuss monetary amounts. Communicating the percentages gets the message across without exposing relative income levels.

If someone risking a relatively large amount of cash earned 67% and then commented on it, that could be perceived as bragging by someone with only a few thousand to play with.

The quality and usefulness of this thread will disappear if personal attacks continue.

Agreed, I'm somewhat reluctant to post most of the time, don't like to own myself too much

Congrats to those with AMR, damn...

 

[Imp]

Also, varying amounts of disposable income per individual monetary ability make it impolite to discuss monetary amounts. Communicating the percentages gets the message across without exposing relative income levels.

The quality and usefulness of this thread will disappear if personal attacks continue.

Ya, douchebaggery is pretty low in this thread, which is a nice change from the rest of ATOT.


Fingers crossed for crashy crashy tomorrow! Glad I got out of C - it's down at least 4% (4.5% right now) today. EU summit today, I can't see Germany caving so "soon" in the game.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

The Euro is bound to bring more bad news eventually. I'm hoping it does so I can re-enter my positions for 10% less. If not, I am pretty damned close to an all time high in my portfolio as it sits in cash.

 

[The-Noid]

Ya, douchebaggery is pretty low in this thread, which is a nice change from the rest of ATOT.


Fingers crossed for crashy crashy tomorrow! Glad I got out of C - it's down at least 4% (4.5% right now) today. EU summit today, I can't see Germany caving so "soon" in the game.

I wish the rest of Europe that has taken the horrible press assault of Germany would stand up and say "Hey Germany, you are the biggest benefactors of the Euro. If you leave your GDP will contract 20%, your unemployment rate will go up double digits and you have been the biggest manipulator of your currency over the last decade because you got in bed with weaker countries. Sit down, shut up and we are going to come up with a solution that takes a depression in Europe off the table. If you want a depression, you are free to leave."

If I was the rest of Europe I would be pretty sick right now of the comments by the holier than thou Germans, who having a banking system that is undercapitaized, contribute the most to systemic risk in Europe, have hugely underfunded off balance sheet liabilities, have used the Germany sovereign rating to guarantee numerous private industries and companies which don't show up on the debt/gdp of the country and really aren't even in that great a shape from a pure debt/gdp standpoint.

Personally Germany needs to move quickly to find a solution or leave and choose the depression scenario on their own. What they are doing now is putting everyone else in a depression because of their own arrogance.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Woohoo, Dow down over 1%. A few more days of this and I'll be sitting pretty. Which means of course that hte Dow will jump 5% tommorrow.

 

[rcpratt]

Hm, I thought F would get more of a boost from the dividend.

 

[KB]

Hm, I thought F would get more of a boost from the dividend.

I had been holding Ford waiting for the dividend anouncment pop. Sadly they picked the worst day for it. Had they done it on a mediocre day, when people didn't know where to put their money, then it would have gotten a nice increase. Instead they picked a big down day, when all stocks are sinking. Oh well. I am sure they had set the day weeks in advance.

 

[Imp]

Sweet, my C is down over 7% now. Glad I decided to check out completely and not keep a small long position like last time - I lost a 15% gain on the last rally and saw it go -15%. Grrr...

DOW down over 1% now. Let's see where it is at 3:30pm. There have been modest rallies wiping out losses around that time for the past 2 or so days. Guessing that it'll swing big either way tomorrow depending on how the EU meeting went.

I had been holding Ford waiting for the dividend anouncment pop. Sadly they picked the worst day for it. Had they done it on a mediocre day, when people didn't know where to put their money, then it would have gotten a nice increase. Instead they picked a big down day, when all stocks are sinking. Oh well. I am sure they had set the day weeks in advance.

Markets are stupid/funny. I forget who, but some big stock announced a 1 cent dividend or something last year, and analysts were saying how the stock would go up. The reasoning was that some portfolio managers wouldn't touch stocks without dividends. Well, that stock kept going down... Think it was C or BAC, CSCO maybe.

 

[Arachnotronic]

"Be greedy when others are fearful"

 

[Imp]

Jackpot... massive rally around 3pm, massive sell-off post 3:30pm.

 

[rcpratt]

I had been holding Ford waiting for the dividend anouncment pop. Sadly they picked the worst day for it. Had they done it on a mediocre day, when people didn't know where to put their money, then it would have gotten a nice increase. Instead they picked a big down day, when all stocks are sinking. Oh well. I am sure they had set the day weeks in advance.

Investment grade is what's really going to make it pop (1Q2012), but I'm just really surprised that it underperformed the market today.

 

[RbSX]

Made 25% in the last two days. Works for me.

 

[Imp]

Made 25% in the last two days. Works for me.

Short or long? I'd be curious if it was long.

 

[The-Noid]

Investment grade is what's really going to make it pop (1Q2012), but I'm just really surprised that it underperformed the market today.

Their bonds already trade like investment grade. Just because a rating agency says something doesn't make a huge difference anymore. Institutions have gone away with the simple mandate of holding securities rated higher than BBB- and gone to use the prudent investor rule.

In the old days the move up in the crossover was huge, now in the days of hedge funds, basis trades and the like, they are less relevant.

 

[RbSX]

Short or long? I'd be curious if it was long.

I'm short against the market. 2x levered ETN against the VXX (Volatility).

 

[The-Noid]

I'm short against the market. 2x levered ETN against the VXX (Volatility).

Don't confuse being short with being long the VIX. They are very different concepts.

The VIX prices index options on the S & P 500 and then annualizes the 30 day implied vols. Volatility takes two sides both a positive volatility outcome (i.e. prices go up) and a negative volatility outcome (prices go down). If all the buyers of calls leave you could end up with a situation of huge skew and no increase in vol. Being directly short the market this does not happen, being long vol it can happen.

Good trade nonetheless but don't say you are short against the market. You are long volatility.

 

[RbSX]

Don't confuse being short with being long the VIX. They are very different concepts.

The VIX prices index options on the S & P 500 and then annualizes the 30 day implied vols. Volatility takes two sides both a positive volatility outcome (i.e. prices go up) and a negative volatility outcome (prices go down). If all the buyers of calls leave you could end up with a situation of huge skew and no increase in vol. Being directly short the market this does not happen, being long vol it can happen.

Good trade nonetheless but don't say you are short against the market. You are long volatility.

I understand that, I edited my post a few times.

 

[The-Noid]

I understand that, I edited my post a few times.

You're post says:

I'm short against the market. 2x levered ETN against the VXX (Volatility).

You may want to consider re-editing it.

 

[mshan]

Ken Moelis (former president UBS investment bank):

Uncertain environment for M&A (inflationary or deflationary ultimate outcome in Europe*), speculation of Obama $4 trillion entitlement cut middle of next year (with no tax increases at that point):

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000060748 (actual Obama grand bargain speculation start around 4:20 mark, but whole video clip is worth watching)




Hedge Fund performance this year: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000061534 (highly correlated markets, headline driven with lots of gaps)


Santa Claus Rally? (one trader's argument pros and cons): http://seekingalpha.com/article/313043-santa-claus-rally-prospects-part-i





BaC/ML 2012 Investing Theses: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-countrywide-lynch-top-ten-macro-themes-2012



J P Morgan Perma-Bull Thomas Lee (2012 SPX year end target of 1430): http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-m...ategist-thomas-lee-sp-500-target-2012-2011-12



Goldman Doomsday Scenario (SPX at 900 with Eurozone breakup): http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldm...better-and-gives-sp-target-if-eurozone-breaks
- (don't have link, but there was previous article on CNBC (I think linked from Reuters) that Goldman's European strategist thought France and Germany would have quick deep recessions, but that Eurozone periphery would have much more prolonged problems. I forgot exact numbers, but I think he was projecting 20% bounce / 40% annualized starting sometime next year (I assume he was referring to European markets and presumes no breakup of Eurozone).
- Abby Joseph Cohen with Goldman 2012 comments post Euro-Summit last week: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000061962




Some excellent (longer-term) insights by Ed Yardeni: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000061844






* Does this mean ECB printing money without limit vs. nationalization of banks, or something totally different?

 

[lothar]

I wish the rest of Europe that has taken the horrible press assault of Germany would stand up and say "Hey Germany, you are the biggest benefactors of the Euro. If you leave your GDP will contract 20%, your unemployment rate will go up double digits and you have been the biggest manipulator of your currency over the last decade because you got in bed with weaker countries. Sit down, shut up and we are going to come up with a solution that takes a depression in Europe off the table. If you want a depression, you are free to leave."

If I was the rest of Europe I would be pretty sick right now of the comments by the holier than thou Germans, who having a banking system that is undercapitaized, contribute the most to systemic risk in Europe, have hugely underfunded off balance sheet liabilities, have used the Germany sovereign rating to guarantee numerous private industries and companies which don't show up on the debt/gdp of the country and really aren't even in that great a shape from a pure debt/gdp standpoint.

Personally Germany needs to move quickly to find a solution or leave and choose the depression scenario on their own. What they are doing now is putting everyone else in a depression because of their own arrogance.

There are ways for Germany to still get EU benefits without them being left holding the bag.
See the UK as an example.

 

[Imp]

http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/09/news/international/european_summit_debt/index.htm?iid=Lead

So... it's an agreement to agree, or a promise to do something? Markets are reacting nicely, but given the size of the rally and the fact that it's already fading by 10:30am should help to understand how little was done.

Going to sit this one out... my stocks are meeting resistance at the highs posted earlier in the week. Hoping/expecting it to fall and hit it a few more times before going back down.

 

[The-Noid]

There are ways for Germany to still get EU benefits without them being left holding the bag.
See the UK as an example.

But the UK controls their own printing press. The reason that the rest of Europe is in such bad shape is they can't print.

I am not sure this is a good example.

 

[The-Noid]

Vol unwound majorly today!

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm hoping for one more big crash before Q4 earnings season. Now I've got cash to play with