***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[eLiu]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: eLiu
snip..

Drop SUN, buy COP.
Drop IBM, buy HPQ.
Drop CVS, buy TEVA.
Drop PFE, buy JNJ.
Drop GE, buy ???.

Originally posted by: eLiu

Originally posted by: maddogchen
snip..

From the valuation prescpective, I see good value in both PFE and JNJ.
However, I don't trust the executives at PFE that much and therefore have to give the edge to JNJ in management.

PFE has a BIG history of overpaying for acquisitions. Mega bloated acquisitions.
Lipitor hasn't proven to be a profitable investment. Neither has Celebrex and Bextra.

The merger between PFE and WYE smoothes out the kinks in their earnings report, but it by no means leads to "growth" for the company.

Pfizer's strategy seems to be...
?Buy company. Strip of immediately valuable pipeline assets and turn over to Marketing Hordes. Fumble with rest of drug discovery pipeline for a few years while trying to figure out where in the massive scheme of things its parts might fit. Realize that the stuff you bought is going off patent ? how time flies! Realize that you have too many sites and too many people ? close 'em down, lay 'em off. Realize that, for some reason, you have nothing new ready to sell. Go back to step one. Repeat for as long as there's another drug company.?

Heh unfortunately for me, I've already pulled the trigger on some of those.
SUN: yeah, maybe not the best plan there, but I think I'll stick with it. I was over-eager at first and bought in before the drop... but I picked up some more shares when it was near the 52wk low to compensate. I still think this company has decent potential over the long term & there's a nice dividend to smooth things out.

IBM, HPQ: Didn't get either. I was thinking about IBM when it went under 100 though. I still like the company; they're doing plenty of innovative work with processors, fab processes, and system architecture that's showing it's worth in the supercomputer world and may be a mark of the future for the rest of us.

CVS, TEVA: Didn't get either. I don't quite see how TEVA is a substitute for CVS. TEVA designs & manufactures generics (biggest in the world); CVS is a drug/convenience store...?

PFE, JNJ: Didn't get either... decided to have some fun and screw around with biotech speculation instead. So far that's been a wild ride (HGSI, GERN, CYTR, ONTY, eyeing CVM). Anyway I reached kinda the same conclusion as you, but I would've edged with PFE b/c I felt like there's the potential for better returns there, more risky.

GE: what's wrong with GE? GE Financial is here to say, aircraft engines (and other aero/meche stuff) has always been strong. Other arms are perhaps not doing so well, but they aren't dying either. I feel like they're a nice thing to have again for the very long term.

also I couldn't resist the RMBS bandwagon, so I've got some Jan options. And I picked up some DHT. I know the analysts don't like them, but they have contracted income for at least 2 years, a hefty dividend which is supportable, and good balances. Also been looking at VZ.

 

[cheezy321]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: PimpJuice

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: PimpJuice

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Azurik
Lothar,

Where were you when RMBS rose 250% in less than two months?

He was still gloating over RMBS losing 65% the previous two months...

I haven't followed the RMBS case (altho the volatility is hard to miss.) What might happen with the Whyte meeting...can he disregard delaware and let his case proceed (is that the bet that the pro-RMBS investors are making at this point)?

Once again, Lothar is nowhere to be found when RMBS takes off......

lame

Where has RMBS taken off to?

That's fine, but I checked and you were still actively posting on the forums......just was funny how you disappeared from this thread when RMBS again more then doubled in value from when you were going against Azuriks optimism. That was a long time ago, don't get so worked up......

Where have you seen me actively post on the forums besides my Accord thread in the Garage?
My post per day has dropped from 4.10 to 3.95 in the last 2-3 months

I had to read 20+ pages to catch up. All were filled with RMBS junk and a few biotech speculations and nothing more.
I see that I didn't miss much.

As you can see, I also replied to other older posts that were months old and worth replying to, not just yours.

I dont know what your definition of 'much' is, but here is what the thread has provided me in the past 3 - 4 months:
Up 60% on RMBS
Up 15% on TSRA
Doubled my money on DNDN.

I consider that quite a bit.

Anyways, welcome back. I am considering getting into JNJ and was wondering what other stocks seem attractive from a valuation standpoint.

 

[eLiu]

lol, cray jumped 15% today from news on a supercomputing upgrade contract. (And they've had a pretty decent run in 09.)

I work with some of the people who make these decisions and I've known for a while now that this upgrade was going to happen. In fact it's practically common knowledge around here with the info having been presented at several conferences. I assumed there had already been a press release about it.

That said, if I had known that the upgrade wasn't public info yet and proceeded to invest in Cray, would that be considered insider trading?

 

[SSSnail]

1.2 bn C shorts have to cover within a week.

 

[Squisher]

Alright, someone grab me by the hand and walk me through this.

American Axle (AXL), an auto supplier, mostly to GM, has been in talks to restructure its debt which might include bankruptcy. Today they released the Q2 earnings of a loss of $5.20/share (last week the stock was at $1.40/share, it started the day at $2.72) with a one time assessment of $3.46, so excluding the charges it was a loss of $1.74 and the analysts had expected a $.77 loss.

After releasing this info today the stock is up almost a dollar. wtf?

 

[SSSnail]

LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

 

[ViperVin2]

UYG and URE up big this week so far. I am finally about to recover from all my losses this year. yay!

 

[eLiu]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

Damnit. One of my friends jumped in on C when they were in the 2.7-2.8 range back in April or so. When I saw them back in the same spot like a week ago, I was thinking "hm I should totally get in on this" and then I somehow forgot about it. Fail.

 

[PepePeru]

started a sharebuilder account in october 08.
as of today, up 19.45%
a large portion of my gains have been due to EWZ & EEM
Though I picked up some QQQQ around 30 and SPY in the 75-85 range.

 

[hiromizu]

who are the players with the patents to the electric car battery charging interfaces that the gov is trying to standardize on?

 

[gotsmack]

TSRA reported good numbers but was still down as was almost everyting else. Up in afterhours though. I picked up 4 March 22.5 Calls. for $7.90

 

[ahurtt]

Originally posted by: Squisher
Alright, someone grab me by the hand and walk me through this.

American Axle (AXL), an auto supplier, mostly to GM, has been in talks to restructure its debt which might include bankruptcy. Today they released the Q2 earnings of a loss of $5.20/share (last week the stock was at $1.40/share, it started the day at $2.72) with a one time assessment of $3.46, so excluding the charges it was a loss of $1.74 and the analysts had expected a $.77 loss.

After releasing this info today the stock is up almost a dollar. wtf?

If I'm reading the charts right, this stock has a market capitalizaiont of only $208 Million. There are only 55.48 million shares. Take this information and look at the trade volume over the last few days. Seems very active. Smaller cap stocks with a smaller float are particularly susceptible to higher volatility if large trade orders are placed. Your answer may lie there. I've only done a cursory look at the chart but the small market cap and float are the first indicators to me. Also look at the insider activity.

 

[richardycc]

Originally posted by: eLiu

Originally posted by: SSSnail
LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

Damnit. One of my friends jumped in on C when they were in the 2.7-2.8 range back in April or so. When I saw them back in the same spot like a week ago, I was thinking "hm I should totally get in on this" and then I somehow forgot about it. Fail.

I bought 50 Sept 4 calls on Monday at 13cents each (day high), think it will get over 50cents if C is over 4 by end of this Month?

 

[conehead433]

I recommended QQQQ when it was $25, but I was not expecting it to hit $40 this soon.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: ahurtt

Originally posted by: Squisher
Alright, someone grab me by the hand and walk me through this.

American Axle (AXL), an auto supplier, mostly to GM, has been in talks to restructure its debt which might include bankruptcy. Today they released the Q2 earnings of a loss of $5.20/share (last week the stock was at $1.40/share, it started the day at $2.72) with a one time assessment of $3.46, so excluding the charges it was a loss of $1.74 and the analysts had expected a $.77 loss.

After releasing this info today the stock is up almost a dollar. wtf?

If I'm reading the charts right, this stock has a market capitalizaiont of only $208 Million. There are only 55.48 million shares. Take this information and look at the trade volume over the last few days. Seems very active. Smaller cap stocks with a smaller float are particularly susceptible to higher volatility if large trade orders are placed. Your answer may lie there. I've only done a cursory look at the chart but the small market cap and float are the first indicators to me. Also look at the insider activity.

Interesting GAAP numbers. So, what does free cash flow look like?

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: eLiu

Originally posted by: SSSnail
LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

Damnit. One of my friends jumped in on C when they were in the 2.7-2.8 range back in April or so. When I saw them back in the same spot like a week ago, I was thinking "hm I should totally get in on this" and then I somehow forgot about it. Fail.

I bought 50 Sept 4 calls on Monday at 13cents each (day high), think it will get over 50cents if C is over 4 by end of this Month?

C will be over $4 by the end of this week, it's gonna test $3.80 tomorrow.

 

[eLiu]

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: eLiu

Originally posted by: SSSnail
LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

Damnit. One of my friends jumped in on C when they were in the 2.7-2.8 range back in April or so. When I saw them back in the same spot like a week ago, I was thinking "hm I should totally get in on this" and then I somehow forgot about it. Fail.

I bought 50 Sept 4 calls on Monday at 13cents each (day high), think it will get over 50cents if C is over 4 by end of this Month?

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sept4 calls go over 50 cents. C calls were going haywire last time the stock was poking around near the $4 point in May. Looks like your $650 will be worth a few times that in the end, lol. Well, supposing that nothing disastrous happens.

 

[richardycc]

another exciting day at SQNM..eraning CC after market close today, everyone is expecting them to announce the results of their internal investigation of the 'data mishandling' incident at the CC. If good news, stock will probably go back to the pre-incident level @ around 15, bad news, probably $3-$4, no news, the stock will probably drop a buck or so....
I sold all my sqnm holding and bought some August 6 calls with the profits, thinking about buying some puts today.

 

[SandEagle]

what do u guys think of GFG?

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: eLiu

Originally posted by: SSSnail
LOL @ 2.5 bn shares traded on C. That's over 9000.

Damnit. One of my friends jumped in on C when they were in the 2.7-2.8 range back in April or so. When I saw them back in the same spot like a week ago, I was thinking "hm I should totally get in on this" and then I somehow forgot about it. Fail.

I bought 50 Sept 4 calls on Monday at 13cents each (day high), think it will get over 50cents if C is over 4 by end of this Month?

C will be over $4 by the end of this week, it's gonna test $3.80 tomorrow.

Quoting myself, but C is now at $4 AH. If it can break $5, it's going all the way.

 

[richardycc]

Originally posted by: richardycc
another exciting day at SQNM..eraning CC after market close today, everyone is expecting them to announce the results of their internal investigation of the 'data mishandling' incident at the CC. If good news, stock will probably go back to the pre-incident level @ around 15, bad news, probably $3-$4, no news, the stock will probably drop a buck or so....
I sold all my sqnm holding and bought some August 6 calls with the profits, thinking about buying some puts today.

The CC didn't go as well as I expected, but at least they didn't release any bad news, so I think the stock will probably drop 50cents to a dollar tomorrow. my August 6 calls will probably be worth 1/2 of I paid. Luckily, I got some August 5 puts today to lessen the damage, and my C Sept 4 calls will be ITM tomorrow.

 

[Cal166]

Crazy, FRE up 85%, FMN 40%!

 

[Regs]

FRE has a EPS of -$27.91 . I don't think their stock is going to be anything good any time soon.

 

[eLiu]

Originally posted by: Regs
FRE has a EPS of -$27.91 . I don't think their stock is going to be anything good any time soon.

AIG has eps at -720; they've nearly doubled in the last 5 days.

I don't have enough cajones to trade these finance stocks... but good luck to you if you do!

 

[tuffgong]

I just sold my FRE and FN stocks like a total n00b. Had them for less than one year. What a dumb move.