***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Well boys and girls, this ole boy is about to call it quits. After one bad investment choice in 2007 and another bad choice to buy and hold on my retirement accounts (401k and Roth) and losing over 66% of my value in 18 months, I'm about to just give up. It's getting to the point that I can't sleep and feeling like all the hard work and savings that I've had throughout the years would have been better off just buying stuff and wasting my money. At least I would have something to show for it.

Millions of people who were duped into buy and hold for 401k plans, etc. are feeling just what I feel right now....and I'm just worn out.

Depression isn't just a state of the economy.....

Engineer,

I would suggest parking some of this into cash or short term treasuries to protect yourself in case things get worse. My 401k became a 201k before I educated myself on what to do in this horrible market. I totally cashed out (outside my brokerage account) at Dow 8000 and S&P 800ish. I saved myself 1000 points of misery. I had to litelarly threaten my 401k advisor to get him to change my allocations from equities to cash (money market FDIC insured). It is entirely probably that we will see the S&P 500 at 500.

 

[JS80]

I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

I'm glad I sold out of GE around $20, although I NEVER imagined it was going to be this bad.

What's kind of funny is that I'm a prominent member in another forum and someone had posted that GE was going to $5 in a year... and she posted this back in April 2008. It was trading in the high $20's at the time.

I'm not sure if this was the case of her posting so many predictions that one came true (she predicted $200 oil for instance), but you could have bought Jan 10 $7.50 puts for $0.13 - it's now trading at $2.60. In other words, every $1300 you bought would have been worth $26,000 now.

Incredible.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

I'm glad I sold out of GE around $20, although I NEVER imagined it was going to be this bad.

What's kind of funny is that I'm a prominent member in another forum and someone had posted that GE was going to $5 in a year... and she posted this back in April 2008. It was trading in the high $20's at the time.

I'm not sure if this was the case of her posting so many predictions that one came true (she predicted $200 oil for instance), but you could have bought Jan 10 $7.50 puts for $0.13 - it's now trading at $2.60. In other words, every $1300 you bought would have been worth $26,000 now.

Incredible.

Crazy.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

i think the volume was 81k, but no that's not me. i wish i had that much money to gamble with.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

Do you really think GE could go bankrupt? Better yet, do you really think the government would allow GE to go bankrupt?

 

[ponyo]

GE March $5 put looks attractive. Given how this stock has declined like 10% everyday, the premiums are rather small. I would've thought it would've been much higher.

Bunch of traders were warning GE was going the way of other financials and other financials in drags like GM all last year. Maybe the collapse of GE is what's needed to put temporary bottom in this market. Everyone is waiting for S&P500 at 600. Is that too easy and too many people are expecting it? I'm planning on going in big with bunch of spare cash and full margin at that level. But it seems everyone has 600 circled so that has me concerned too many are gaming it. I hate crowded trade.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

Do you really think GE could go bankrupt? Better yet, do you really think the government would allow GE to go bankrupt?

GE can easily become another Freddie, Fannie, AIG, Cit, BoA. Many people are betting on it.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

Do you really think GE could go bankrupt? Better yet, do you really think the government would allow GE to go bankrupt?

It's trading like it's insolvent. They will probably go the same way as AIG, get a government bailout and get diluted to a penny stock.

I did read somewhere though that government can't own media...and GE owns NBC...so who knows maybe it will go BK.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Well boys and girls, this ole boy is about to call it quits. After one bad investment choice in 2007 and another bad choice to buy and hold on my retirement accounts (401k and Roth) and losing over 66% of my value in 18 months, I'm about to just give up. It's getting to the point that I can't sleep and feeling like all the hard work and savings that I've had throughout the years would have been better off just buying stuff and wasting my money. At least I would have something to show for it.

Millions of people who were duped into buy and hold for 401k plans, etc. are feeling just what I feel right now....and I'm just worn out.

Depression isn't just a state of the economy.....

What stocks are you talking about?

I've ridden WFC down 66%. It sucks ,but people are short sighted these days. The stocks could just as easily go up to their old levels.

 

[JS80]

lol what an awesome site http://isthisthebottom.com/

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Engineer
Well boys and girls, this ole boy is about to call it quits. After one bad investment choice in 2007 and another bad choice to buy and hold on my retirement accounts (401k and Roth) and losing over 66% of my value in 18 months, I'm about to just give up. It's getting to the point that I can't sleep and feeling like all the hard work and savings that I've had throughout the years would have been better off just buying stuff and wasting my money. At least I would have something to show for it.

Millions of people who were duped into buy and hold for 401k plans, etc. are feeling just what I feel right now....and I'm just worn out.

Depression isn't just a state of the economy.....

What stocks are you talking about?

I've ridden WFC down 66%. It sucks ,but people are short sighted these days. The stocks could just as easily go up to their old levels.

or WFC can be insolvent and go to 0

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Wow, after reading some comments here, it is amazing how ignorant some people are in regard to what is happening to the financial institutions from an investment perspective. Do people here actually understand the numbers regarding what the gov't has done to bail them out?

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: JS80
lol what an awesome site http://isthisthebottom.com/

One thing is for certain. The louder "isthisthebottom" question, the further away the bottom is. Longterm bottom hasn't even crossed my mind.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

I don't think you understand what's going on in the market right now. All these companies are perceived to be insolvent. Who cares if their brand names will still be around in 10 years? If they are insolvent they have to recapitalize and the current shareholders get left holding the bag and all your holdings go to 0.

Warren Buffet took a huge gamble and bought companies he didn't understand (GE AND GS). Both company balance sheets are a huge mystery and it's evident now that the market is saying it's full of shit.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

I don't think you understand what's going on in the market right now. All these companies are perceived to be insolvent. Who cares if their brand names will still be around in 10 years? If they are insolvent they have to recapitalize and the current shareholders get left holding the bag and all your holdings go to 0.

Warren Buffet took a huge gamble and bought companies he didn't understand (GE AND GS). Both company balance sheets are a huge mystery and it's evident now that the market is saying it's full of shit.

Actually, the way companies are getting money from the gov't now is through preferred stock thus the risk to shareholder dilution. BAC is the example that comes to mind with their recent $20 Billion injection. Was it Citigroup recently that had the preferred converted to common in order to boost its capitilzation ratio thus diluting shareholder equity?

The current common stock will not be going to zero. Sorry. The risk is simply diluition at this point.

As for BAC, they recently stated via internal memo that they do not expect to need more money from the gov't (this was a week ago).

Warren Buffet also was buying WFC for $20 about 3 months ago for his personal portfolio.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/r...20term%20sheet%202.pdf
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1356.htm

Once the trend of people walking away from their homes ends and employment improves, banks will start doing better.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

I don't think you understand what's going on in the market right now. All these companies are perceived to be insolvent. Who cares if their brand names will still be around in 10 years? If they are insolvent they have to recapitalize and the current shareholders get left holding the bag and all your holdings go to 0.

Warren Buffet took a huge gamble and bought companies he didn't understand (GE AND GS). Both company balance sheets are a huge mystery and it's evident now that the market is saying it's full of shit.

Actually, the way companies are getting money from the gov't now is through preferred stock thus the risk to shareholder dilution. BAC is the example that comes to mind with their recent $20 Billion injection. Was it Citigroup recently that had the preferred converted to common in order to boost its capitilzation ratio thus diluting shareholder equity?

The current common stock will not be going to zero. Sorry. The risk is simply diluition at this point.

As for BAC, they recently stated via internal memo that they do not expect to need more money from the gov't (this was a week ago).

Warren Buffet also was buying WFC for $20 about 3 months ago for his personal portfolio.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/r...20term%20sheet%202.pdf
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1356.htm

Once the trend of people walking away from their homes ends and employment improves, banks will start doing better.

$0, 50 cents, same shit. The glory days of $70 bank stocks are over. You bring up Citi, where are they now? They're at a dollar. With the type of dilution we're talking here, they will be lucky to go back to $5. These banks are still ungodly leveraged. 1) Their asset values are falling because of defaults on mortgages, future defaults on other loan assets, 2) they still owe interest payments on their debt, 3) they are not lending money; 1+2+3 = 0. A big fat insolvent 0.

Get it in your head, BAC at $3 is not a "value" it means the bank is insolvent. And by the time the economy improves, they will be so diluted you will be lucky to see any of the big bank stocks above $5.

 

[moparacer]

I am one of the fortunate ones who made some lucky changes in my IRA right as the SHTF in the fall of 07 and Jan 08. When I transferred my IRA to vanguard some were really starting the gloom and doom talk and halved it into a money market/ Stock/bond portfolio. Up until that point I had been 100 percent (!) in stocks..... Anything I had for taxable investing went to 2 CDs at my local bank. I remember complaining about the 4 percent or so I would earn on them lying there for a year.....

Dang how good that 4 percent looks now........

Anyways, now instead of renewing them at the paltry rates they are paying now I am getting a little tempted to move some of it into a long position in the market but with all the bad news that keeps coming day after day after day who knows when this is really going to turn around......

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

I don't think you understand what's going on in the market right now. All these companies are perceived to be insolvent. Who cares if their brand names will still be around in 10 years? If they are insolvent they have to recapitalize and the current shareholders get left holding the bag and all your holdings go to 0.

Warren Buffet took a huge gamble and bought companies he didn't understand (GE AND GS). Both company balance sheets are a huge mystery and it's evident now that the market is saying it's full of shit.

Actually, the way companies are getting money from the gov't now is through preferred stock thus the risk to shareholder dilution. BAC is the example that comes to mind with their recent $20 Billion injection. Was it Citigroup recently that had the preferred converted to common in order to boost its capitilzation ratio thus diluting shareholder equity?

The current common stock will not be going to zero. Sorry. The risk is simply diluition at this point.

As for BAC, they recently stated via internal memo that they do not expect to need more money from the gov't (this was a week ago).

Warren Buffet also was buying WFC for $20 about 3 months ago for his personal portfolio.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/r...20term%20sheet%202.pdf
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1356.htm

Once the trend of people walking away from their homes ends and employment improves, banks will start doing better.

$0, 50 cents, same shit. The glory days of $70 bank stocks are over. You bring up Citi, where are they now? They're at a dollar. With the type of dilution we're talking here, they will be lucky to go back to $5. These banks are still ungodly leveraged. 1) Their asset values are falling because of defaults on mortgages, future defaults on other loan assets, 2) they still owe interest payments on their debt, 3) they are not lending money; 1+2+3 = 0. A big fat insolvent 0.

Get it in your head, BAC at $3 is not a "value" it means the bank is insolvent. And by the time the economy improves, they will be so diluted you will be lucky to see any of the big bank stocks above $5.

This is why I have a lot of put contracts on BaC. Waiting for the gov't to convert preferred again. They have 100 billion in 'losses' by estimates, not as bad as Citi's 300 billion but still bad enough.

And IHatemyjob.... I don't think you understand what is going on here. Right now every single financial institution in the market cannot be trusted. We simply do not know what their off balance sheet exposure is.

Secondly, go look at BAC's last 10-k statement ... 'oops' our assets might be valued about 50 billion more than they really are..... but its not REALLY a loss..... because we are lying to you with a straight face.

Until the lying and corruption is rooted out of the system, all financials, i.e BAC, C, WFC are big fat 0s. The only reason JPM and MS are hanging on is because of the gift of Bear Stears and the bailout by mistubishi of MS.

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

Do you really think GE could go bankrupt? Better yet, do you really think the government would allow GE to go bankrupt?

It's trading like it's insolvent. They will probably go the same way as AIG, get a government bailout and get diluted to a penny stock.

I did read somewhere though that government can't own media...and GE owns NBC...so who knows maybe it will go BK.

Apparently GE still has a AAA credit rating. How is that possible?

 

[GTKeeper]

Rambus UP 16% in pre-market. Just made some good money here.... bought a bunch of May Calls.... probably doubled up.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

Do you really think GE could go bankrupt? Better yet, do you really think the government would allow GE to go bankrupt?

It's trading like it's insolvent. They will probably go the same way as AIG, get a government bailout and get diluted to a penny stock.

I did read somewhere though that government can't own media...and GE owns NBC...so who knows maybe it will go BK.

Apparently GE still has a AAA credit rating. How is that possible?

Its possible, whats more telling is the growing CDS spread on GE debt... quite scary. How long did AIG have 'AAA' credit rating? Its not an instantaneous reflection.

 

[ponyo]

Market is up and GE is down 10% and Wells Fargo down 14%. If the market turns down, GE will likely threaten to pierce $5. If that happens, bunch of mutual funds will have to unload GE as they can't keep stock under $5 on their books which will add to the selling pressure. I'm watching GE and WFC with great interest. Opportunity is coming to make some serious money on the long side for a trade on both stocks.