***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Rambus UP 16% in pre-market. Just made some good money here.... bought a bunch of May Calls.... probably doubled up.

Judge only affirmed the jury in favor of RMBS which was expected. This is nothing if a settlement comes out this week/weekend with Hynix. We're talking about it going to the $20's-$30's if that happens. A forced compulsory rate when it becomes clear what the rate is will bring this stock to the teens.

Obviously, if the market was in healthier times, it would have gone bonkers. I am just predicting the rise if the markets continue the doldrum that it is in.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Rambus UP 16% in pre-market. Just made some good money here.... bought a bunch of May Calls.... probably doubled up.

Judge only affirmed the jury in favor of RMBS which was expected. This is nothing if a settlement comes out this week/weekend with Hynix. We're talking about it going to the $20's-$30's if that happens. A forced compulsory rate when it becomes clear what the rate is will bring this stock to the teens.

Obviously, if the market was in healthier times, it would have gone bonkers. I am just predicting the rise if the markets continue the doldrum that it is in.


I just hope Hynix doesn't fold. Otherwise I am ready for my rambus to pay off.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Naustica
Market is up and GE is down 10% and Wells Fargo down 14%. If the market turns down, GE will likely threaten to pierce $5. If that happens, bunch of mutual funds will have to unload GE as they can't keep stock under $5 on their books which will add to the selling pressure. I'm watching GE and WFC with great interest. Opportunity is coming to make some serious money on the long side for a trade on both stocks.

I would stay away from WFC. If GE falls to 5 bucks, you can go long on it. WFC is losing money mainly because of Wachovia. Wachovia has a significant amount of CRE debt, which will go bust sometimes this year.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Rambus UP 16% in pre-market. Just made some good money here.... bought a bunch of May Calls.... probably doubled up.

Judge only affirmed the jury in favor of RMBS which was expected. This is nothing if a settlement comes out this week/weekend with Hynix. We're talking about it going to the $20's-$30's if that happens. A forced compulsory rate when it becomes clear what the rate is will bring this stock to the teens.

Obviously, if the market was in healthier times, it would have gone bonkers. I am just predicting the rise if the markets continue the doldrum that it is in.


I just hope Hynix doesn't fold. Otherwise I am ready for my rambus to pay off.

I think part of the reason why Rambus went to Korea is to let the Koreans save face a bit, do it on their country. Otherwise, there would be no reason why Rambus executives and a retired judge acting as a mediator would go halfway across the world.

Hynix is in a very tight spot right now. If they choose to appeal, I'm not sure how they can post a bond to insure that Rambus' money is safe. They just don't have the money. However, they do have a card left to play. If they choose to settle, it would benefit Rambus to meet somewhere in the middle of everything. Why would Rambus do this? By settling, Hynix won't appeal, which means Judge Whyte's findings of facts and upholding patent validity becomes the law of the land. It sets a precedent. Rambus can use Collateral Estoppel (law term basically meaning what applies here should apply in other relevant cases).

What would I do?

I would allow Hynix to pay the $450m+ they already owe over a 5 year period. I would give them an escalating royalty rate - like 2% on worldwide (instead of just U.S.) DRAM, that escalates up to 5% when/if other manufacturers sign license agreements.

Also, Elpida (Japan) and Micron (US) are fighting a war over in Taiwan about which company will consolidate with the Taiwanese DRAM companies. If Elpida wins, it would make Elpida the 2nd biggest DRAM manufacturer (only trailing Samsung by very little). Keep in mind Elpida was a Rambus licensee, and Rambus decided to defer re-negotiating a new contract once their old one ended. With a Hynix signing, they can go back to Elpida and ask for a higher rate than the fixed payments they were receiving from Elpida before.

So cross your fingers, because if something like this happens, Samsung will be forced to sign. Downstream customers will not buy from Samsung and go to Elpida and Hynix - Rambus will just sue them for receiving unlicensed products.

Like I said in last year's stock market thread, the DRAM companies will have to consolidate and a bunch of them will go bankrupt (some already have).

FYI: Rambus and Hynix has to report back to Judge Whyte by March 9th, take that as you will. I received a few private messages and that's all the information I have at this time.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.

So you were able to locate shares to borrow? Citi is not on Penson Financial Services easy to borrow list which both Zecco and ThinkorSwim use as their clearing house. Most brokers won't let you short shares trading under $5 because once it falls below that, it becomes un-marginable if it stays under $5 for 30 days. I find it hard to believe you found shares to short, and they allowed you to short Citi at $2.50.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
I think GE is going to get gov't bailout and become a penny stock. I am buying June 2.50 puts tomorrow.

Were you the one that bought 54k 2.5 June puts? Someone is making a 1 million dollar OPTION BANKRUPTCY bet on GE. If they go under, they make 10 million.

They will not go under. If that were any possibility whatsoever, Warren Buffet would never have lent GE money recently (6 months ago maybe).

The thing people don't get is that companies like WFC, BAC and GE is that they will be around in 10 years. BAC will be the biggest financial institution in the US. The thing is, shareholders are risking shareholder dilution with every penny they borrow from the gov't. If BAC doesn't borrow any more money, the shareholders are going to make out BIG TIME. Talking a $4 stock that could be at $70+ in 10 years. There is risk there though but the risk is shareholder dilution, not market capitalization.

I don't think you understand what's going on in the market right now. All these companies are perceived to be insolvent. Who cares if their brand names will still be around in 10 years? If they are insolvent they have to recapitalize and the current shareholders get left holding the bag and all your holdings go to 0.

Warren Buffet took a huge gamble and bought companies he didn't understand (GE AND GS). Both company balance sheets are a huge mystery and it's evident now that the market is saying it's full of shit.

Actually, the way companies are getting money from the gov't now is through preferred stock thus the risk to shareholder dilution. BAC is the example that comes to mind with their recent $20 Billion injection. Was it Citigroup recently that had the preferred converted to common in order to boost its capitilzation ratio thus diluting shareholder equity?

The current common stock will not be going to zero. Sorry. The risk is simply diluition at this point.

As for BAC, they recently stated via internal memo that they do not expect to need more money from the gov't (this was a week ago).

Warren Buffet also was buying WFC for $20 about 3 months ago for his personal portfolio.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/r...20term%20sheet%202.pdf
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1356.htm

Once the trend of people walking away from their homes ends and employment improves, banks will start doing better.

$0, 50 cents, same shit. The glory days of $70 bank stocks are over. You bring up Citi, where are they now? They're at a dollar. With the type of dilution we're talking here, they will be lucky to go back to $5. These banks are still ungodly leveraged. 1) Their asset values are falling because of defaults on mortgages, future defaults on other loan assets, 2) they still owe interest payments on their debt, 3) they are not lending money; 1+2+3 = 0. A big fat insolvent 0.

Get it in your head, BAC at $3 is not a "value" it means the bank is insolvent. And by the time the economy improves, they will be so diluted you will be lucky to see any of the big bank stocks above $5.

This is why I have a lot of put contracts on BaC. Waiting for the gov't to convert preferred again. They have 100 billion in 'losses' by estimates, not as bad as Citi's 300 billion but still bad enough.

And IHatemyjob.... I don't think you understand what is going on here. Right now every single financial institution in the market cannot be trusted. We simply do not know what their off balance sheet exposure is.

Secondly, go look at BAC's last 10-k statement ... 'oops' our assets might be valued about 50 billion more than they really are..... but its not REALLY a loss..... because we are lying to you with a straight face.

Until the lying and corruption is rooted out of the system, all financials, i.e BAC, C, WFC are big fat 0s. The only reason JPM and MS are hanging on is because of the gift of Bear Stears and the bailout by mistubishi of MS.

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

The irony of course is that you don't know what these companies are worth either, but you are actively shorting. Enjoy your taxes on what gains you do get and the losses that will wipe you out. Further irony is rooted in the fact that you are as greedy as the bankers that caused all of this mess.

WFC .... now is the time to buy it. Perhaps you should revisit the annual report. They are interested in serving the shareholders. Perhaps you should rethink your attack on them.

Thanks for proving to me I don't get it with your logic of nothing. I said it before and I'll say it again. The only risk is dilution and as soon as foreclosure numbers flatten or even improve, that will signal to the market that hte borrowing is almost over if not over and you will then know what the end dilution is and therefore you can start looking forward with more certainty.

I agree that most financials should not be invested in right now, but shorting is simply stupid. There is a bubble right now and when it pops, you will be F'd. All it takes is one piece of good news for the market to open up 15%. And financials will open up 40%. One piece of good news that is big is all that it will take. For example, the announcement by the gov't that they don't see the need for alot more bailout money would be a big one and it will slam you.

FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
House Financial Services subcommittee is meeting next week on March 12th to look at marked-to-market accounting. That's a potential game changer and you could see the financials and the market jump if they suspend or change marked-to-market accounting. This came out today and some of today's strength could have been players trying to get in front of it. Keep this on your radar as you shape your risk profile.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
Originally posted by: Naustica
House Financial Services subcommittee is meeting next week on March 12th to look at marked-to-market accounting. That's a potential game changer and you could see the financials and the market jump if they suspend or change marked-to-market accounting. This came out today and some of today's strength could have been players trying to get in front of it. Keep this on your radar as you shape your risk profile.

I'd hate to be short with an announcement (good or bad) like this on the horizon. If it is good, shorts could be slaughtered.

PS: I will be impressed if anyone heer has been shorting BAC, C, etc since March of 2008, not March 2009. Right now, you are nothing more than band wagoners.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.

So you were able to locate shares to borrow? Citi is not on Penson Financial Services easy to borrow list which both Zecco and ThinkorSwim use as their clearing house. Most brokers won't let you short shares trading under $5 because once it falls below that, it becomes un-marginable if it stays under $5 for 30 days. I find it hard to believe you found shares to short, and they allowed you to short Citi at $2.50.

Put options. Just as good as a short, with limited downside.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: Naustica
House Financial Services subcommittee is meeting next week on March 12th to look at marked-to-market accounting. That's a potential game changer and you could see the financials and the market jump if they suspend or change marked-to-market accounting. This came out today and some of today's strength could have been players trying to get in front of it. Keep this on your radar as you shape your risk profile.

I'd hate to be short with an announcement (good or bad) like this on the horizon. If it is good, shorts could be slaughtered.

PS: I will be impressed if anyone heer has been shorting BAC, C, etc since March of 2008, not March 2009. Right now, you are nothing more than band wagoners.

I bought 1 put (Jan 2010 60) contract against HSBC back in October when their stock was at 70, I sold it when they hit 35. I bought more puts when they climbed to 38 right before their earnings report (I knew it was going to be bad due to the slowdown in the Asian economy, not to mention their MASSIVE derivative exposure and involvement in the sub prime market with their US unit).

Now you can TRADE the financials, Shorting and holding is stupid. And if you held short since March 2008 that is stupid as well, because if you were shorting right you would have covered the major downs and re-shorted the ups.

If M2M is suspended you will see a quick rally and then a major area of uncertainty. Suspending M2M accounting is like me selling my California house to you based on the last sale in 2006 saying 'eventually it will go back up to that level, please pay me the 2006 price'. Even though today its worth 50 cents on the dollar.

The bottom line is that you cannot trust the balance sheets of JPM, BAC, WFC, and C. C and BAC are essentially insolvent anyway.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

The irony of course is that you don't know what these companies are worth either, but you are actively shorting. Enjoy your taxes on what gains you do get and the losses that will wipe you out. Further irony is rooted in the fact that you are as greedy as the bankers that caused all of this mess.

I am not greedy. My 401k became a 201k over the last year because I was stupid enough to trust my adviser. I am playing with money I can totally afford to lose.

The real irony is that you are telling me that by looking at a balance sheet I can judge the health of a financial company well. That is a pipe dream at the moment. Uncertainty in a bear market is a short play not a long play. Until the gov't gets all these CDSs on an exchange we will continue having the crap we are having right now.



FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.

Never trust words that come out of the horses mouth. Look at how many financial are saying 'we are not cutting the div, not cutting the div, not cutting the div' woops we cut the div. That is flat out LYING. The market will not tolerate liars. Go ahead and go long on C and BAC and WFC see where you are 1 year from now.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.

So you were able to locate shares to borrow? Citi is not on Penson Financial Services easy to borrow list which both Zecco and ThinkorSwim use as their clearing house. Most brokers won't let you short shares trading under $5 because once it falls below that, it becomes un-marginable if it stays under $5 for 30 days. I find it hard to believe you found shares to short, and they allowed you to short Citi at $2.50.

Put options. Just as good as a short, with limited downside.

yeah sure. I call BS but what does it matter. Doesn't affect my P&L.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

The irony of course is that you don't know what these companies are worth either, but you are actively shorting. Enjoy your taxes on what gains you do get and the losses that will wipe you out. Further irony is rooted in the fact that you are as greedy as the bankers that caused all of this mess.

I am not greedy. My 401k became a 201k over the last year because I was stupid enough to trust my adviser. I am playing with money I can totally afford to lose.

The real irony is that you are telling me that by looking at a balance sheet I can judge the health of a financial company well. That is a pipe dream at the moment. Uncertainty in a bear market is a short play not a long play. Until the gov't gets all these CDSs on an exchange we will continue having the crap we are having right now.



FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.

Never trust words that come out of the horses mouth. Look at how many financial are saying 'we are not cutting the div, not cutting the div, not cutting the div' woops we cut the div. That is flat out LYING. The market will not tolerate liars. Go ahead and go long on C and BAC and WFC see where you are 1 year from now.

You can't trust any financials or financials in drags like GE or insurers. They will lie and deny til they're bankrupt and take you with them. Goldman said they had "immaterial exposure" to AIG and would've been fine if AIG went BK. We find out later that Goldman was AIG biggest trading partner and had $20 billion in counter party risk. Goldman would've gone bankrupt if AIG wasn't bailed out. That's why Paulson bailed out AIG. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09...ed=1&_r=2&ref=business
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
WSJ quoted me! Text below, a very good read on what is happening right now.

Wall Street Journal link

Rambus and the Case of the Missing News Release
By Don Clark

Rambus, a Silicon Valley company that has become a vortex for litigation, won a very favorable ruling from a federal judge Tuesday. Word of the verdict swirled quickly among Rambus shareholders, an extremely active community that buzzes in online forums over each twist and turn in the company?s complex legal battles. And Rambus shares, which often swing wildly in response to court developments, took a nice upward bounce Wednesday.

Yet the company, which actively publicizes its victories (and often its losses), issued no press release this time. A Rambus spokeswoman explained in an email note that the latest ruling by U.S. District Judge Ronald Whyte essentially validated a prior jury verdict in favor of the company.

Well, yes, but Judge Whyte provided a particularly thorough analysis of a question that has dogged Rambus for years?did the company in the 1990s improperly mislead an industry standard committee called JEDEC?

Rambus, readers may recall, makes technology that boosts the performance of memory chips. It tried to get companies that manufacture such chips to license its technology; when that effort failed, it started filing patent suits against companies that used DRAM technologies that were endorsed by JEDEC. The memory-chip makers raised arguments that Rambus violated its obligations to inform the group about its plans to file patents on its technology?arguments that the Federal Trade Commission used against Rambus in an antitrust suit that was ultimately thrown out by an appeals court.

Judge Whyte, who presides in San Jose, Calif., has been considering whether the same allegations could serve as a defense for companies that Rambus has sued, including Hynix Semiconductor Inc., Samsung Electronics Co., Nanya Technology Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. As a jury did in March 2008, he sided with Rambus, but cited a lot more reasons.

The judge concluded that JEDEC meeting minutes and other contemporaneous documents are more reliable than the memory of participants about the patent-disclosure duties of JEDEC members. He suggested that two witnesses had a bias against Rambus that undermined their credibility, citing conflicting documents and testimony of other JEDEC members. ?Consistent with the jury?s finding, the court agrees that Rambus made no misrepresentations and uttered no deceptive half-truths to JEDEC and its members,? Judge Whyte wrote in a 58-page ruling.

Might Rambus have other reasons for not trumpeting those conclusions? There is one geographical explanation: company lawyers are scheduled to be in South Korea for a mediated negotiating session with Hynix. The subject, according to a court filing, is how much in royalties on products must Hynix pay under prior rulings in Judge Whyte?s court.

But some Rambus shareholders think negotiations may go into the larger issue of how much Hynix should pay in total damages; the court has already ordered the Korean company to pay $133 million, but how much it would take to end this particular front in the legal wars of Rambus is anybody?s guess. ?They could have settled the royalty issue over the telephone,? one shareholder says.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Azurik
WSJ quoted me! Text below, a very good read on what is happening right now.

Wall Street Journal link

Rambus and the Case of the Missing News Release
By Don Clark

Rambus, a Silicon Valley company that has become a vortex for litigation, won a very favorable ruling from a federal judge Tuesday. Word of the verdict swirled quickly among Rambus shareholders, an extremely active community that buzzes in online forums over each twist and turn in the company?s complex legal battles. And Rambus shares, which often swing wildly in response to court developments, took a nice upward bounce Wednesday.

Yet the company, which actively publicizes its victories (and often its losses), issued no press release this time. A Rambus spokeswoman explained in an email note that the latest ruling by U.S. District Judge Ronald Whyte essentially validated a prior jury verdict in favor of the company.

Well, yes, but Judge Whyte provided a particularly thorough analysis of a question that has dogged Rambus for years?did the company in the 1990s improperly mislead an industry standard committee called JEDEC?

Rambus, readers may recall, makes technology that boosts the performance of memory chips. It tried to get companies that manufacture such chips to license its technology; when that effort failed, it started filing patent suits against companies that used DRAM technologies that were endorsed by JEDEC. The memory-chip makers raised arguments that Rambus violated its obligations to inform the group about its plans to file patents on its technology?arguments that the Federal Trade Commission used against Rambus in an antitrust suit that was ultimately thrown out by an appeals court.

Judge Whyte, who presides in San Jose, Calif., has been considering whether the same allegations could serve as a defense for companies that Rambus has sued, including Hynix Semiconductor Inc., Samsung Electronics Co., Nanya Technology Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. As a jury did in March 2008, he sided with Rambus, but cited a lot more reasons.

The judge concluded that JEDEC meeting minutes and other contemporaneous documents are more reliable than the memory of participants about the patent-disclosure duties of JEDEC members. He suggested that two witnesses had a bias against Rambus that undermined their credibility, citing conflicting documents and testimony of other JEDEC members. ?Consistent with the jury?s finding, the court agrees that Rambus made no misrepresentations and uttered no deceptive half-truths to JEDEC and its members,? Judge Whyte wrote in a 58-page ruling.

Might Rambus have other reasons for not trumpeting those conclusions? There is one geographical explanation: company lawyers are scheduled to be in South Korea for a mediated negotiating session with Hynix. The subject, according to a court filing, is how much in royalties on products must Hynix pay under prior rulings in Judge Whyte?s court.

But some Rambus shareholders think negotiations may go into the larger issue of how much Hynix should pay in total damages; the court has already ordered the Korean company to pay $133 million, but how much it would take to end this particular front in the legal wars of Rambus is anybody?s guess. ?They could have settled the royalty issue over the telephone,? one shareholder says.

lulz srsly?
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.

So you were able to locate shares to borrow? Citi is not on Penson Financial Services easy to borrow list which both Zecco and ThinkorSwim use as their clearing house. Most brokers won't let you short shares trading under $5 because once it falls below that, it becomes un-marginable if it stays under $5 for 30 days. I find it hard to believe you found shares to short, and they allowed you to short Citi at $2.50.

Put options. Just as good as a short, with limited downside.

Then why didn't you say you did puts earlier then?
I call shens.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

The irony of course is that you don't know what these companies are worth either, but you are actively shorting. Enjoy your taxes on what gains you do get and the losses that will wipe you out. Further irony is rooted in the fact that you are as greedy as the bankers that caused all of this mess.

I am not greedy. My 401k became a 201k over the last year because I was stupid enough to trust my adviser. I am playing with money I can totally afford to lose.

The real irony is that you are telling me that by looking at a balance sheet I can judge the health of a financial company well. That is a pipe dream at the moment. Uncertainty in a bear market is a short play not a long play. Until the gov't gets all these CDSs on an exchange we will continue having the crap we are having right now.



FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.

Never trust words that come out of the horses mouth. Look at how many financial are saying 'we are not cutting the div, not cutting the div, not cutting the div' woops we cut the div. That is flat out LYING. The market will not tolerate liars. Go ahead and go long on C and BAC and WFC see where you are 1 year from now.

1 year from now? 1 year is a crap shoot in any economy. How about 3? Let's see where BAC and WFC are in 3 years (although2 years should be good enough). I will not speak for C. BAC and WFC will have record market caps in 5 years. It is only a matter of how diluted the shares become.

I don't believe a word out of the mouths of executives in most cases, but when USB speaks, they say they cut the dividend, why it was cut and that when this crisis ends and earnings stabilize, they will re-establish a more significant dividend.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

The irony of course is that you don't know what these companies are worth either, but you are actively shorting. Enjoy your taxes on what gains you do get and the losses that will wipe you out. Further irony is rooted in the fact that you are as greedy as the bankers that caused all of this mess.

I am not greedy. My 401k became a 201k over the last year because I was stupid enough to trust my adviser. I am playing with money I can totally afford to lose.

The real irony is that you are telling me that by looking at a balance sheet I can judge the health of a financial company well. That is a pipe dream at the moment. Uncertainty in a bear market is a short play not a long play. Until the gov't gets all these CDSs on an exchange we will continue having the crap we are having right now.



FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.

Never trust words that come out of the horses mouth. Look at how many financial are saying 'we are not cutting the div, not cutting the div, not cutting the div' woops we cut the div. That is flat out LYING. The market will not tolerate liars. Go ahead and go long on C and BAC and WFC see where you are 1 year from now.

1 year from now? 1 year is a crap shoot in any economy. How about 3? Let's see where BAC and WFC are in 3 years (although2 years should be good enough). I will not speak for C. BAC and WFC will have record market caps in 5 years. It is only a matter of how diluted the shares become.

I don't believe a word out of the mouths of executives in most cases, but when USB speaks, they say they cut the dividend, why it was cut and that when this crisis ends and earnings stabilize, they will re-establish a more significant dividend.

u r delusional
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

FYI: BAC just a week or two ago stated that they don't see the need to borrow more bailout money.

lol so did bear and lehman before they went under
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
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Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Edit: Easiest short for me was when Citi bounced up to 2.50 again, I shorted and then it dumped 50% after the preferred conversion.

I'm curious. Which broker did you use?

I use 2, Zecco and Think or Swim.

So you were able to locate shares to borrow? Citi is not on Penson Financial Services easy to borrow list which both Zecco and ThinkorSwim use as their clearing house. Most brokers won't let you short shares trading under $5 because once it falls below that, it becomes un-marginable if it stays under $5 for 30 days. I find it hard to believe you found shares to short, and they allowed you to short Citi at $2.50.

Put options. Just as good as a short, with limited downside.

Then why didn't you say you did puts earlier then?
I call shens.

My HSBC and C executions. Im not going to post my entire executionn history here, but believe what you want to believe.

HBC

10/01/2008 09:35 AM Bought XYDVML@$6.50
02/19/2009 12:26 PM Sold XYDVML@$27.00

02/26/2009 10:53 AM Bought XXHBCOE@$0.20
03/02/2009 09:59 AM Sold XXHBCOE@$1.15


C
02/26/2009 10:30 AM Bought XXCOY@$0.45
02/27/2009 09:52 AM Sold XXCOY@$1.00
02/27/2009 09:51 AM Sold XXCOY@$1.00
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Bought some FAS (3x long financial) @ $3.27. Little placeholder in case suspension of M2M gains traction.
 

maddogchen

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2004
8,903
2
76
Originally posted by: Naustica
Bought some FAS (3x long financial) @ $3.27. Little placeholder in case suspension of M2M gains traction.

why did you buy FAS specifically? My dad bought that too. I told him I thought he was being risky with his retirement money in an attempt to win his money back.
 

sohcrates

Diamond Member
Sep 19, 2000
7,949
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An interesting question, please discuss

Which is the better investment? A share of Citigroup which is about at $1 today or something off the McDonald's Value meal?

Here are some starter thoughts from google finance forums


Personally, I choose the value meal.
You'll at least get about 2000 calories out of it...

Get the meal. It is yummy, and afterwards you get a turd, which is
what a share of C stock is. So in effect you get C for free with the
meal! What a deal!