IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
Looks like I'll wake up $26,000 richer, give or take a few dollars 
I have stated before that I do not believe in the efficient markets theory. There are always going to be stocks that are not quite understood by the market until after the fact. It helps that I have access to PACER (the court filing system) and hired guns to report to me, but companies like Rambus requires thorough investigative work in order to determine how valuable certain events are.
Lothar is correct that Rambus is currently at the dicretion of the court and which side the judges wake up on. However, what he misses is that heavy investors have carefully studied the judges in the case and the facts surrounding them that we are able to intelligently guess how certain decisions will come out. While not always accurate, it plays a crucial role as to why I keep pouring money into Rambus as it was nose diving.
I bought on the way down at $11's, $8's, $7's, $6's to reach 13,000 shares because I still firmly believe the fundamental aspects of Rambus has not changed.
I do want to state at this juncture though, that one should not buy just because you read it here. I won't be 24/7 to update what is going on daily and I think there's only one or two other investors here that have confided in me in private that they are following Rambus closely to know what is going on without my help.
IMHO, Rambus is still severely undervalued in light to the two significant events that happened today. It will move opposite of the market going down as momentum has finally turned, but what I really wish for is for the market to rally in order for proper mass buying to take place.
update: i just did a quick analysis of the court order, it looks like it's going to be around $480m of past damages plus ongoing forced royalty... if it weren't for freakin' sue robinson rambus would be over $30 right now. all she did was delay the evitable.
I have stated before that I do not believe in the efficient markets theory. There are always going to be stocks that are not quite understood by the market until after the fact. It helps that I have access to PACER (the court filing system) and hired guns to report to me, but companies like Rambus requires thorough investigative work in order to determine how valuable certain events are.
Lothar is correct that Rambus is currently at the dicretion of the court and which side the judges wake up on. However, what he misses is that heavy investors have carefully studied the judges in the case and the facts surrounding them that we are able to intelligently guess how certain decisions will come out. While not always accurate, it plays a crucial role as to why I keep pouring money into Rambus as it was nose diving.
I bought on the way down at $11's, $8's, $7's, $6's to reach 13,000 shares because I still firmly believe the fundamental aspects of Rambus has not changed.
I do want to state at this juncture though, that one should not buy just because you read it here. I won't be 24/7 to update what is going on daily and I think there's only one or two other investors here that have confided in me in private that they are following Rambus closely to know what is going on without my help.
IMHO, Rambus is still severely undervalued in light to the two significant events that happened today. It will move opposite of the market going down as momentum has finally turned, but what I really wish for is for the market to rally in order for proper mass buying to take place.
update: i just did a quick analysis of the court order, it looks like it's going to be around $480m of past damages plus ongoing forced royalty... if it weren't for freakin' sue robinson rambus would be over $30 right now. all she did was delay the evitable.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
If they never bought Merril, I'd buy more.
I own it and should have sold when I first heard that they were buying Countrywide. I'm pretty much at the point that if I take a total loss I could care less.
If you want to buy a bank, but WFC. Or better yet, consider BRK. In 20 years, it will turn out being a good decision.
I think he said $262/share earlier in the thread (or in last year's thread).
I don't believe they're worth anywhere near that.
After all, If they truly worth 26x more than their current value then why isn't Warren Buffett and Bruce Berkowitz buying their stock?
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Well, with Warren Buffet, it is simple. Rambus is in a quickly evolving industry. And if that is the case, there is no way to project future free cash flows. And if that is true, there is no way to determine intrinsic value.
Bruce Berkewitz is also very good at what he does.
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
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It was last year's stock thread, but you are omitting why I said what I said.
I stated that assuming the cases gets resolved and goes in Rambus' favor, then given the proper financial analysis and a stock market climate that will encourage a P/E of 35, Rambus is worth $262.
I said it's worth at least $100 in my eyes, and I also stated if they lose everything (they haven't, they have won every case, even if they lost the initial decision, they won on appeal) it will only be worth $3-$5.
This is what I wrote previously (notice how my rates on damages were accurate):
The DRAM market this year is $30b. Rambus collects 3.5% royalties for companies who sign up - where companies who choose to litigate will pay at least $4.25% and as high as 10%+ for willful infringement. Lets assume a global settlement or Rambus legal victory in their upcoming January trial: the current DDR2 share is 88% of the $30b DRAM market. Conservatively, we'll say Rambus collects 5% royalty on average which equates to $1.14 billion per year. DDR, XDR (Sony licensed XDR for Playstation 2 and 3) and XDR2 is about 7% of the total market. At 4.25%, that's an additional $76 million annually. At 35% corporate tax rate, Rambus' after tax earnings would be $787 million. They only have 100 million shares outstanding which would equate to earnings of around $7.50 per share. At a growth P/E ratio of 35, the price per share would be $262.
I'm not claiming RMBS will be able to reach $262. What I am stating is their decade long legal saga is about to come to an end next year. With Rambus itself today, it is only worth $3-$5 a share. With what they are about to get back that is rightfully theirs, I'd be willing to say it will get to at least $100, assuming none of the companies it has won against/will win against goes bankrupt.
If you have rationale why they won't reach that level eventually, I would welcome your response. The rationale can be based on their market segment, current legal proceedings, patents, etc.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Azurik,
You should learn your lesson. If you can not determine value with certainty, there is no investment to be made. Your comments are speculation and nothing more.
You should learn your lesson. If you can not determine value with certainty, there is no investment to be made. Your comments are speculation and nothing more.
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
The big rewards in life involve high risk. Even if you can determine value with certainty, it's still a gamble. No one can predict the future. Take a look at the world right now and how fast things have changed in the past year. Companies that fell in your "values that are certain" are now uncertain.
Speculation on my part is formed with numerous hours of research and due diligence. I place a bet base on what I know and how I believe events will play out.
On the other hand, the judge's past history of judgements, the size of the DRAM market, the patents Rambus holds, the current licenses Rambus has, the royalties Rambus charges, etc. are all facts. There are no speculations on that end.
I place a P/E on the financial analysis I have done with my colleagues, and go from there.
Sorry, there's no lesson I feel like I should be learning right now. As an entrepreneur and as a person who has an unconventional business mind, I wouldn't be where I am today or have nearly the success I have had to date if I followed certainty.
Do not take this as being conventional is bad. Invest everything in index funds and climb the corporate ladder and one will come out pretty darn good in the end. I was meant to play on the other field and already have my safety nets in place.
Miramonti
Lifer
- Aug 26, 2000
- 28,653
- 100
- 106
Originally posted by: Azurik
Looks like I'll wake up $26,000 richer, give or take a few dollars
I have stated before that I do not believe in the efficient markets theory. There are always going to be stocks that are not quite understood by the market until after the fact.
Richer than when, yesterday, or your cost of the entire position? I thought you had bought as high as 14's or close based on when you posted during the day of the crash from 18.
Either case, I'm glad you got this rally and hope that it continues to roll in the right direction some more. $450m is 60% more value than the market cap of today's close.
As for the "efficient markets" theory, that is complete garbage imo.
Buying begets buyers, and selling begets sellers. These dynamics will always accelerate and exacerbate market moves, and thus constantly create overvalued and undervalued opportunities throughout all market places.
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
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Originally posted by: jjsole
Originally posted by: Azurik
Looks like I'll wake up $26,000 richer, give or take a few dollars
I have stated before that I do not believe in the efficient markets theory. There are always going to be stocks that are not quite understood by the market until after the fact.
Richer than when, yesterday, or your cost of the entire position? I thought you had bought as high as 14's or close based on when you posted during the day of the crash from 18.
Either case, I'm glad you got this rally and hope that it continues to roll in the right direction some more. $450m is 60% more value than the market cap of today's close.
As for the "efficient markets" theory, that is complete garbage imo.
Buying begets buyers, and selling begets sellers. These dynamics will always accelerate and exacerbate market moves, and thus constantly create overvalued and undervalued opportunities throughout all market places.
$26,000 richer than yesterday. I bought as high as $22 and as low as $5. Cost average is around $8, I haven't recalculated lately since my shares span across 5 different brokerage accounts. I am in the green in the investment again, although only slightly.
Miramonti
Lifer
- Aug 26, 2000
- 28,653
- 100
- 106
Certainty is always a matter of degree, from which people place (or should place) respective bets on accordingly. Azurik's opinions are just that, but have been legitimately measured with sensibility. That won't necessarily make his predictions perfect or correct, or make his position management perfect when taking those positions, but I think his process has been very sound and if he makes money, I think it will be much more than just 50/50 luck.
Miramonti
Lifer
- Aug 26, 2000
- 28,653
- 100
- 106
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: jjsole
Originally posted by: Azurik
Looks like I'll wake up $26,000 richer, give or take a few dollars
I have stated before that I do not believe in the efficient markets theory. There are always going to be stocks that are not quite understood by the market until after the fact.
Richer than when, yesterday, or your cost of the entire position? I thought you had bought as high as 14's or close based on when you posted during the day of the crash from 18.
Either case, I'm glad you got this rally and hope that it continues to roll in the right direction some more. $450m is 60% more value than the market cap of today's close.
As for the "efficient markets" theory, that is complete garbage imo.
Buying begets buyers, and selling begets sellers. These dynamics will always accelerate and exacerbate market moves, and thus constantly create overvalued and undervalued opportunities throughout all market places.
$26,000 richer than yesterday. I bought as high as $22 and as low as $5. Cost average is around $8, I haven't recalculated lately since my shares span across 5 different brokerage accounts. I am in the green in the investment again, although only slightly.
I see. Considering the ground that the stock has covered lately that's great.
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
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- 81
I think you have spilt personalities zimu... love then hate then love RMBS!
I am obviously kidding, but my advice to you is to get into a stock that is more stable. From the past month, it appears (at least on here) that this stock is giving you too much anxiety from the massive up and down swings.
Everytime Rambus has dipped below $10 (and it has happened 3 times in the past), I view that as a big buying opportunity, as the main driver for the company hasn't changed. This brings my cost basis down.
Then again, I receive news and am able to dissect its meaning better than the average Joe can when it comes to this stock. I can imagine there are many people who are nervous when it goes into a free fall. It's understandable. But if you can't sleep at night, you need to buy Coke (KO) instead of this
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
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FYI, we'll probably have resistance around $9.50 - I predict we'll break through to double digits by this week.
It really depends on Judge Kramer at this point. If he keeps his AT (antitrust) suit on schedule for April 18th.
Hynix is all, but defeated at this point. I would prefer them to settle with Rambus so we actually have, for the first time in Rambus' history, a ruling that is finalized stating that Rambus' patents are valid and enforceable for all SDRAM, DDR, DDR2, DDR3, GDDR, GDDR2, GDDR3 DRAM products.
It really depends on Judge Kramer at this point. If he keeps his AT (antitrust) suit on schedule for April 18th.
Hynix is all, but defeated at this point. I would prefer them to settle with Rambus so we actually have, for the first time in Rambus' history, a ruling that is finalized stating that Rambus' patents are valid and enforceable for all SDRAM, DDR, DDR2, DDR3, GDDR, GDDR2, GDDR3 DRAM products.
Originally posted by: Azurik
I think you have spilt personalities zimu... love then hate then love RMBS!
I am obviously kidding, but my advice to you is to get into a stock that is more stable. From the past month, it appears (at least on here) that this stock is giving you too much anxiety from the massive up and down swings.
Everytime Rambus has dipped below $10 (and it has happened 3 times in the past), I view that as a big buying opportunity, as the main driver for the company hasn't changed. This brings my cost basis down.
Then again, I receive news and am able to dissect its meaning better than the average Joe can when it comes to this stock. I can imagine there are many people who are nervous when it goes into a free fall. It's understandable. But if you can't sleep at night, you need to buy Coke (KO) instead of this
LOL! it's definitely a love hate relationship
i got into trading expecting to lose a lot before i made anything, and as a hobby entirely - i am more than satisfied with what i make at work. i'm ENJOYING the rmbs ride, as much as i bitch and whine but then come back to dance and shout... it's the ups and downs that is keeping me interested in the whole stock market thing - something that i'd lose interest in within hours if it were some predicable creature.
so i'll probably stick with rmbs, as much as it frustrates and excites me all at once
and i definitely haven't invested money that i need any time soon into the markets, which is why i'm still able to sleep at night and see this as a bit of a game. so don't mind me
- Jan 23, 2002
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Nvidia's Request for Stay Dismissed
This just in. Nvidia had asked to stop the proceedings Rambus had against them since they are conflicting rulings. The International Trade Commission denies Nvidia's request and orders the case to move forward.
Not as huge news as the previous two, but another good one.
Volume is running very strong. It's about 5 million shares and it's not even 11am yet. We've been drifting down on below average volume for the past 1-2 weeks.
This just in. Nvidia had asked to stop the proceedings Rambus had against them since they are conflicting rulings. The International Trade Commission denies Nvidia's request and orders the case to move forward.
Not as huge news as the previous two, but another good one.
Volume is running very strong. It's about 5 million shares and it's not even 11am yet. We've been drifting down on below average volume for the past 1-2 weeks.
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