***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I missed the $110 long trade on oil by couple of cents. So I bought some puts on oil since it's near the $120 range. I'm expecting oil to be range bound from 110-120 until it breaks 110 to 100 before election.

Down open was good today. Hopefully we'll get a reversal higher and we'll get the rally that power us to S&P 1340-1350 where people can exit and puts bought.

That didn't last long. I'm out with 11% loss. Breaking through $120 resistance could allow oil to run to around $130. I'll take another stab at the puts if it gets near it.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Auric

Originally posted by: JS80

But my "real" picks are IAR/RHD

Phone books? Really? Those things should be outlawed.

short term play. earnings tomorrow. in for quick 50% pop. i'm already up 43%.

well it won't necessarily go up....

ok, no shit?


Rolling the dice, I now hold 45k shares of UVSE haha...

So did you sell your IAR/RHD before today? They both are tanking big time. lol.

I only own RHD. $3 tomorrow.

LOL. You're holding this still aren't you?

Yup, bought it at 1.51 and 1.78, almost at $3 now.

woot RHD hit $3. Waiting for IAR to catch up to it...

 

[richardycc]

another mortgage/financial insurance stocks rally tommorrow, TMA will probably go over $1 tomorrow, another 25-50cents for FNM, FRE, ABK, RDN, MBI, etc...
I also got some STSI today. As soon as I saw the big spike up at 11am, I knew it was related to this patent appeal, too bad I was being cheap and placed a limit order, the price was around $2.25 then and it was keep going up. Finally got my market order filled at $2.49 ~10mins before news came out @ 12:50pm. hopefully it will go over $3 tomorrow once everyone digested this great news tonight. The patent could worth a few billions, but I probably won't hold the stock long enough to see any of that money, knowing RAI will probably drag it out as long as they can. This is a great example of a small company vs big company and won.

 

[Ricochet]

D@mmit, read your post too late richardycc. I knew FRE would come back up sometime. I just didn't think it would be this soon. Missed out on a quick trade.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: ricochet
D@mmit, read your post too late richardycc. I knew FRE would come back up sometime. I just didn't think it would be this soon. Missed out on a quick trade.

Better to miss out on a quick trade like this one than for one to lose their shirt.

 

[Mark R]

For the first time in history, the Dow Jones index companies have made a net loss over the last financial year. Indeed, same with the Russell 2000 index constituents.

 

[sniperruff]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ricochet
D@mmit, read your post too late richardycc. I knew FRE would come back up sometime. I just didn't think it would be this soon. Missed out on a quick trade.

Better to miss out on a quick trade like this one than for one to lose their shirt.

agreed. FNM is a better buy anyway, even though if you're that adventurous you might as well go with TMA.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Auric

Originally posted by: JS80

But my "real" picks are IAR/RHD

Phone books? Really? Those things should be outlawed.

short term play. earnings tomorrow. in for quick 50% pop. i'm already up 43%.

well it won't necessarily go up....

ok, no shit?


Rolling the dice, I now hold 45k shares of UVSE haha...

So did you sell your IAR/RHD before today? They both are tanking big time. lol.

I only own RHD. $3 tomorrow.

LOL. You're holding this still aren't you?

Yup, bought it at 1.51 and 1.78, almost at $3 now.

woot RHD hit $3. Waiting for IAR to catch up to it...

Woot RHD almost at $4, IAR to hit $2+

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: OS

Originally posted by: Azurik
You can write this one for the history books, I am shorting oil. $10k worth.

:shocked:

you got some fucking huge ass balls to try that before a fed whoring out meeting, if they cut another anything at all, that is gonna get ugly.

They won't cut, that's a guarantee in a market with no guarentees. Wall St. actually feared that the interest rate might RISE, but this past week this notion has been pretty much squashed. The market is betting with almost a near certainity that rates will remain unchanged.

I think the fair market value of oil should be around $85-$95. The difference between FMV and the price now is speculation IMHO. Oil was $55 in January '07 - I think some of you guys don't realize what a jump it has gone through in a year and a half. Yes, a lot of it has to do with the fact that oil is pegged to the dollar and we've had a weak dollar policy lately. One could also throw in the growing demand of China/India. But there is plenty of speculative money in oil futures, and in my wild guess, we're about $30-$40 overpriced. When a correction does happen, they tend to over correct.

I don't time market specifically (case in point with my buying in GE), but I go with the information that's out there and I really believe oil is in a bubble right now. I don't mean to toot my own horn, but I called China was in a bubble well before it popped, when it was still steam rolling ahead. I didn't short China at the time - I'll short oil now though. Timing might not be exact, and we may very well see $250 oil sometime in the future... but the market is pricing oil futures like we'll see $250 oil this year rather than some significant time ahead.

The fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Mr. Inflation is rearing its ugly head and helicopter Bernanke will surely bring this topic up tomorrow after they announce their decision. If they need to curb inflation, which they will... one can expect rates to rise as early as October. If rates rise, dollar will strengthen. That will shave a few dollars off a barrel of oil. It only takes one minor swing in momentum before all the speculators dump and the black gold back to a more realistic level.

I'm getting out with a tidy profit following the additional drop in oil due to Gustav. Entered USO at $111 on June 24th and getting out around $87.72 today. Price per barrel is $108 or so, down from the $147 high. I still expect it to drop to the fair value I was stating before, but profit is profit and I'll take a good one while it's staring me in the face.

 

[richardycc]

wow ABK is going nuts, over $9 now...short squeeze in full effect....

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: richardycc
wow ABK is going nuts, over $9 now...short squeeze in full effect....

gawd i can't believe i missed that boat. You think TMA will do the same?

I'm banking on IAR to do the same.

 

[Ricochet]

Market is taking a dump today. My entire portfolio seeing red.

 

[Cal166]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: richardycc
wow ABK is going nuts, over $9 now...short squeeze in full effect....

gawd i can't believe i missed that boat. You think TMA will do the same?

I'm banking on IAR to do the same.

I am kicking myself as well, I told my co-worker about ABK when it was $1.87!!!

 

[JS80]

jesus...I thought someone stole all my stocks...my portfolio was empty due to stop loss orders. what a clusterfuck day....

i may need to go back in partial EOD.

 

[ivan2]

might want to jump on GG when it drops below 30 again. easy 5-10% gain.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80
jesus...I thought someone stole all my stocks...my portfolio was empty due to stop loss orders. what a clusterfuck day....

i may need to go back in partial EOD.

lol i bot back portfolio at discount i'm already up 7%

 

[ponyo]

I have not liked the price action of the market for the past month. Market whipsawed back and forth 1-2% for many days which was disturbing. S&P unable to break through 1300 and fall below 1260. Well today it broke down and fell below 1260. Normally I like to play the bounce after a day like today but I'm staying put. I'm mostly in cash atm which was my plan entering Sept/Oct and I still don't want to buy. I just have this uneasy feeling we're about to experience a big crash, and we're just getting started.

I sold some covered calls on CarMax shares. 100% of the shares now have calls written against it. I might short some financials like Wells Fargo and JP Chase but to be honest, I don't feel like doing anything. I'm pretty happy sitting on the sideline. I just can't shake this bad vibe.

 

[Slew Foot]

Personally Im wiating until November until I make any major moves, too many fishy things going on and with the election upcoming, anything can happen. Im content with the 4-5% return in MMF for now and my core account remains unchanged as always.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Personally Im wiating until November until I make any major moves, too many fishy things going on and with the election upcoming, anything can happen. Im content with the 4-5% return in MMF for now and my core account remains unchanged as always.

what MMFs are yielding 4-5%?

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Personally Im wiating until November until I make any major moves, too many fishy things going on and with the election upcoming, anything can happen. Im content with the 4-5% return in MMF for now and my core account remains unchanged as always.

what MMFs are yielding 4-5%?

Some random Fidelity one that all my cash stays in when not invested. You probably cant see it since its for private accounts of >1 mill only (unless you have one too).

 

[richardycc]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: richardycc
wow ABK is going nuts, over $9 now...short squeeze in full effect....

gawd i can't believe i missed that boat. You think TMA will do the same?

I'm banking on IAR to do the same.

if you can get some TMA under 40cents, its probably a good lottery bet. I do own some TMA, but I didn't like how they delayed the tender for the 2nd time, will see how it will play out. I bought some PCYC today @2.33, it has been popping up on my radar screen for a few days, and found out today there is a cancer fund raising special (Stand up to cancer) on all 3 TV networks tonight at 8pm, and they MIGHT mention this experimental drug from PCYC. FDA rejected this as a stand alone cancer drug back in 07,this drug has shown that when combined with other cancer treatment, it will make the treatment a lot more effective, so they might get it approved as a combo drug.

 

[ponyo]

Nationalization of Fannie and Freddie

Everyone knew it was coming. The question was when and the timing. Supposedly $230 billion in debt is coming due in Fannie and Freddie by end of this quarter.

What is the Fed going to do about the $871 billion in debt coming due by year end for financial institutions like banks, brokerages, and insurance?

Risk is high.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Nationalization of Fannie and Freddie

Everyone knew it was coming. The question was when and the timing. Supposedly $230 billion in debt is coming due in Fannie and Freddie by end of this quarter.

What is the Fed going to do about the $871 billion in debt coming due by year end for financial institutions like banks, brokerages, and insurance?

Risk is high.

FRE FNM gonna go to zero? haha

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Personally Im wiating until November until I make any major moves, too many fishy things going on and with the election upcoming, anything can happen. Im content with the 4-5% return in MMF for now and my core account remains unchanged as always.

what MMFs are yielding 4-5%?

Some random Fidelity one that all my cash stays in when not invested. You probably cant see it since its for private accounts of >1 mill only (unless you have one too).

I manage cash for my company...we are in institutional money markets and the best yielding one is sub 3%. What's the ticker of the MMF?

 

[richardycc]

looks like the bailout plan is only bad for fannie and freddie's shareholders...the rest of the financial stocks and espeically mortgage related stocks should do really well on Monday..party on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!