***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I would not invest in it, but if you want no risk and the potential for huge rewards, consider this stock:
FARMERS & MERCH BK (FMBL)

Why?
http://www.thediv-net.com/2008...ank-of-long-beach.html

A conservative California bank that is about to take market share from it's falling competitors.

no risk. :laugh: Why aren't you all in if it has no risk and all that potential reward?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
They seem to shoot at least one Nasdaq tech company a week. Today, it's Akamai. That was one hot stock back in the .com bubble and I traded it long and short many times back then. I haven't touch it since '01 but see today it blew up and received 25% haircut. That is just brutal stuff. I would be very nervous if I had any tech stock as a miss gets you a nice haircut these days.

There are good tech stocks to own.
Stay with those that actually have a moat. That means HPQ, INTC, MSFT and IBM.
Stay away from those that are either over-hyped, or don't make any sense, or both. That means GOOG, CSCO, RIMM, AAPL, and pretty much almost anything else.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...cEY7ExeSqKA&refer=home
MSFT is the cheapest it's been since it's IPO. They might do a $20 billion buyback this quarter.

The problem with tech is that you don't know who will be around long term. For all I know, Apple will take over and PCs will become the thing of history museums. Case in point, 10 years ago would you have thought that Apple of all companies would have the number one portable music device? In the early 90s, IBM was big. What the heck was Dell and HPQ?

Tech changes to fast. You can not reliably predict the future. If you can not do that, how can you value a tech company?

Sorry Lothar. I think you are one of the better investors on Anandtech but I disagree on tech.

With so many industries why not pick something with more certainty?

I'm pretty much as tech adverse as you'll ever see almost anyone here get.
The only tech company I'm in is HPQ. Nothing else.
Of my 18 stocks, only 1 is a tech.

INTC, MSFT, and IBM I mentioned earlier are also options because they will be around for years to come and unlike most other tech companies rife with speculation, they actually have a moat. You're better off staying with those names than trying to find the next "Microsoft".

It costs Intel $3.5 billion to build a fab. How many companies on the market can afford to make such an investment? Not much. The same way someone cannot wake up the next morning to say they want to make their own railroad to compete with UNP and BNI.
That's real competitive advantage, not Facebook, Google, or some guy making a web page and selling it for billions of dollars, or other tech stocks etc...

Why don't I have INTC, MSFT, or IBM?
Because I have my personal set limit on the number of stocks I ever want to own at a time (max 20). I currently have 18.
"If you can buy more of your best ideas, why put money into your 20th-best idea?"
-Bruce Berkowitz

I only have room for 1 tech stock.
HPQ is a hold for me. I'm not buying, but I'm also not selling what I currently have either.

For reference:
HPQ is the 6th largest portfolio holding after LUK, GILD, JNJ, KFT, and UNP.

I didn't know if you saw my response and thought it was adequate or not.
Just to make sure you weren't misunderstanding me, that's all.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Mark R

Originally posted by: Lothar
You're short selling JNJ?
I wish you good luck.

QFT. Highly profitable company, good P/E and Forward P/E, tasty dividend with a history of progressive above inflation increase, and it's in the healtcare sector which is a stability when every other company is losing their ass.

Maybe they'll suffer a bit from collateral damage in the event of a deterioration of the financial crisis, but if you're into shorting, there are plenty of bones with more tender meat on them.

Consumer staple $200 billion market cap with a 15 forward PE is not a good value. I'd take the short side too (at this price).

JNJ is not a consumer staple.

BTW, your post has been marked.
See you in 5 years.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
My call for 5 years is JNJ. More than double your money while napping.

I'll take the otherside of that bet. Law of large numbers work against it.

You're short selling JNJ?
I wish you good luck.

Never said I was shorting JNJ. I think JNJ is a great company and one of the better companies/sector to own in this environment. I just think IHateMyJob2004 is drinking too much of his kool-aid if he thinks JNJ will easily double in 5 years. Maybe it will but I don't think it's going to be that easy given the company's size and marketcap.

Fair enough.
I thought by "other side" you meant shorting.
I don't see JNJ doubling in the next 5 years, but if it does then all the better.

I bought my shares with the expectation that the company is at least worth high $80's/share, if not more than that.
That will be a 50% gain from my purchase price once you include dividends. I'll settle with stable companies that have earned a reputation of consistently increasing dividends over the past 4 decades.

Unlike most pharmas that face the "patent cliff", JNJ will survive it thanks to their OTC products/medical devices moat and also the Consumer health group that Pfizer was stupid enough to sell to them.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Squisher

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Squisher
What do you guys think of Panera Bread (PNRA)? The wife has some stock options vesting and I'm not sure if we should cash out or let them ride?

What is the barrier to entry? I can become a competitor to them tomorrow and open up shop in the lot next door to them. All it takes is funding and knowledge of the restaurant business.

And, what does that have to do with my question? Just because I know how to make a cup of espresso does that mean there never was a time to buy Starbucks?

:roll:

Actually, it has everything to do with your question.

Edit: If you still don't get it yet, he means cash them out and invest in a more reputable business.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I would not invest in it, but if you want no risk and the potential for huge rewards, consider this stock:
FARMERS & MERCH BK (FMBL)

Why?
http://www.thediv-net.com/2008...ank-of-long-beach.html

A conservative California bank that is about to take market share from it's falling competitors.

Volume of 3 shares? Wow...That bank really does trade "by appointment only".
:Q @ bid/ask price.

Nice balance sheet, but their stock is to thinly traded for me to even consider it.
Their most recent report can be found here

 

[Squisher]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Squisher

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Squisher
What do you guys think of Panera Bread (PNRA)? The wife has some stock options vesting and I'm not sure if we should cash out or let them ride?

What is the barrier to entry? I can become a competitor to them tomorrow and open up shop in the lot next door to them. All it takes is funding and knowledge of the restaurant business.

And, what does that have to do with my question? Just because I know how to make a cup of espresso does that mean there never was a time to buy Starbucks?

:roll:

Actually, it has everything to do with your question.

Edit: If you still don't get it yet, he means cash them out and invest in a more reputable business.

I got what he was saying, but I thought it was so simplistically stupid that I thought I would give a retort in kind.

Barriers to entry to effectively competing with a company that has 1100+ bakery/cafés across the US that are expanding 2+ bakeries a week and are no where near as market saturated as McDonald's and have a product recognition around the country that is only growing? I doubt that 1100+ mom and pops will all open up bakeries that compete against all Panera Breads nor will they gain instant brand recognition.

And, if all your chickens are in the basket of barrier to entry, what industry is immune? Those requiring large initial capital investments? I guess all the domestic auto parts suppliers have nothing to worry about then because no one would think to undercut them with what it takes to get the capitalization to start a manufacturing complex on foreign soil.



Unless you do something that no one else does, because no one can figure out how you do it or will ever figure out how you do it, then you're not worth investing in. Tell me how your search for the perfect investment goes with that as your mission statement.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Auric

Originally posted by: JS80

But my "real" picks are IAR/RHD

Phone books? Really? Those things should be outlawed.

short term play. earnings tomorrow. in for quick 50% pop. i'm already up 43%.

well it won't necessarily go up....

ok, no shit?


Rolling the dice, I now hold 45k shares of UVSE haha...

So did you sell your IAR/RHD before today? They both are tanking big time. lol.

I only own RHD. $3 tomorrow.

LOL. You're holding this still aren't you?

Yup, bought it at 1.51 and 1.78, almost at $3 now.

 

[Auric]

Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

 

[sniperruff]

sold all my AAPL i bought @ $150.30 a few weeks ago and made 16% today.

i hate that i keep missing AMZN. wanted in when it was in the 60's.

 

[ponyo]

I'm still wondering where the banks are getting the money to buyback ARS.

 

[sniperruff]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm still wondering where the banks are getting the money to buyback ARS.

"
Last week, Cuomo's office and the Securities and Exchange Commission reached settlements that forced Swiss bank UBS to repurchase $18.6 billion in the securities, while Citigroup agreed to buy back $7 billion of the securities. UBS will also pay a fine of $150 million, while Citigroup will pay a $100 million fine."

well, they'll have to pull money out of their asses. i predict further write downs.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Mark R

Originally posted by: Lothar
You're short selling JNJ?
I wish you good luck.

QFT. Highly profitable company, good P/E and Forward P/E, tasty dividend with a history of progressive above inflation increase, and it's in the healtcare sector which is a stability when every other company is losing their ass.

Maybe they'll suffer a bit from collateral damage in the event of a deterioration of the financial crisis, but if you're into shorting, there are plenty of bones with more tender meat on them.

Consumer staple $200 billion market cap with a 15 forward PE is not a good value. I'd take the short side too (at this price).

JNJ is not a consumer staple.

BTW, your post has been marked.
See you in 5 years.

Determining value based on PE alone Some people do not get value investing

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Squisher

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Squisher

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Squisher
What do you guys think of Panera Bread (PNRA)? The wife has some stock options vesting and I'm not sure if we should cash out or let them ride?

What is the barrier to entry? I can become a competitor to them tomorrow and open up shop in the lot next door to them. All it takes is funding and knowledge of the restaurant business.

And, what does that have to do with my question? Just because I know how to make a cup of espresso does that mean there never was a time to buy Starbucks?

:roll:

Actually, it has everything to do with your question.

Edit: If you still don't get it yet, he means cash them out and invest in a more reputable business.

(1)I got what he was saying, but I thought it was so simplistically stupid that I thought I would give a retort in kind.

Barriers to entry to effectively competing with a company that has 1100+ bakery/cafés across the US that are expanding 2+ bakeries a week and are no where near as market saturated as McDonald's and have a product recognition around the country that is only growing? (2)I doubt that 1100+ mom and pops will all open up bakeries that compete against all Panera Breads nor will they gain instant brand recognition.

And, if all your chickens are in the basket of barrier to entry, what industry is immune? Those requiring large initial capital investments? I guess all the domestic auto parts suppliers have nothing to worry about then because no one would think to undercut them with what it takes to get the capitalization to start a manufacturing complex on foreign soil.



Unless you do something that no one else does, because no one can figure out how you do it or will ever figure out how you do it, then you're not worth investing in. Tell me how your search for the perfect investment goes with that as your mission statement.

You might understand barrier to entry, but you approach the topic with blinders on. McDonalds is a low cost provider of food where economies of scale will make long term surivial more likely against mom'n'pop shops.

Starbucks however is a high cost solution where they take advantage of economies of scale to increase earnings, not provide better prices to their customers. For a competitor to open up next door with a similar menu is easy.

simplistically stupid?

The original question:
What do you guys think of Panera Bread (PNRA)? The wife has some stock options vesting and I'm not sure if we should cash out or let them ride?

You could infer that I think Panera bread is not worthy of investing in. It's up to you though. If you think PNRA is investment grade and undervalued, hold onto those options. If it is overvalued or not of investment grade, sell them.

(1) + (2) = FAIL
You understand barrier to entry so far as you know how to repeat the 3 words.

 

[Auric]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

What is your rationale? The commodity bubble has burst, the US dollar is recovering and interest rates remain low: mucho moolah is flowing back into the US stock market. Ja, financials seemed to have played out for the major gains on the upside and risk remains from further write-downs. Airline action was manic today. Still, OPEC honchos say $80 is nrml, not $114. LDK earnings massively beat estimates... gonna be a lots o' action in the solar sector on the morrow. TAN ETF alone is up 5% after hours.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

What about the KFT shares you picked up at $32+/share?
I remember you claiming that you where tired of waiting and decided to pull the trigger even though I told you to wait for the "Buffett effect" to return KFT shares back to normal.

KFT is not worth investing at this level.
Like I said, I won't think about making any additional purchases as long as it's above $30.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Auric
Ja, so-called charting on its own is certainly missing the forest for the trees, as 'twere. However if trading at all then it behooves us to be attentive to activity. Look at INTC the last five years, or even ten if discounting the internets bubble bobble, and it has clearly not been good to hold long term however it has been great for medium term trading with about as little risk as there can be.

Given that assurance, even this year it has been easy to buy during the panics (I mentioned earlier that the $18-20 range looked like a bargoon). As for when to sell, well, there was certainly that strong resistance at $25 which when combined with market sentiment allowed being quite content when stopped out on the way back down. Rinse and repeat for 20-25% twice. Although if the market does not implode it could potentially manage higher this time as we enter the traditionally stronger season for tech and the company really is doing well -with the anti-trust investigations being the only blight.

Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

I like your strategy (and I agree with it). Very ballsy of you :thumbsup: for your swing trading KMX like that.

However, I disagree with the USO calls with oil at $110. Pretty arbitrary number and I don't think $110 is a bottom for oil. What is your rationale for the $110 number?

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

I like your strategy (and I agree with it). Very ballsy of you :thumbsup: for your swing trading KMX like that.

However, I disagree with the USO calls with oil at $110. Pretty arbitrary number and I don't think $110 is a bottom for oil. What is your rationale for the $110 number?

I don't believe $110 is the bottom for oil. I think we'll hit $100 before or around election. The reason I'm taking stab at $110 is that that's the where the 200 dma is and has decent support in that area if you look at the chart. Also, by the time oil drops down to $110, S&P should hit around 1340-1350 which is where this rally should stall and rest before breaking through or falling. I'm betting it will fail to break 1350 as it has pretty heavy resistence in that area. Oil gets a bounce, equities fall. Just a swing trade and nothing big.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

What about the KFT shares you picked up at $32+/share?
I remember you claiming that you where tired of waiting and decided to pull the trigger even though I told you to wait for the "Buffett effect" to return KFT shares back to normal.

KFT is not worth investing at this level.
Like I said, I won't think about making any additional purchases as long as it's above $30.

I still think KFT is worth investing at this level. This is great environment for Kraft. People are eating at home more and eating out less. Commodity prices are slowly coming back down and Kraft is raising prices which should be great for future margin.

Kraft is now my largest position. The starter shares I picked up at $32 back in May? I'll keep those. I bought much larger positions at $30 and below. Some of those shares will be sold. I'm still keeping bunch. Just trading around the core. Add into weakness and sell into strength. Keep the core. My daughter and nephews shares won't be touched along with most of mine.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Auric

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Auric
Oil down 29% from high now. The airline orgy continues.

I'm waiting for the oil to hit $110 range. My buy order for USO calls is there waiting. Also got a small put order for airlines there as well. Hopefully we'll get there soon and both orders will be executed.

Sold more CarMax shares. It finally broke through $15.50. I guess 4th time was the charm.


I'm selling into strength in pretty much all my positions. I've got my order to sell partial Kraft shares I pickup up at $29 and below. My plan was to reduce exposure and be cash heavy heading into Sept/Oct, and I'm using the current rally to achieve that. Risk is increasing as we head higher, and I'm becoming more bearish. Hopefully we'll get one more good push up so I can exit most of my positions and set up my puts and shorts. I'm now scanning names to potentially short, especially in banks and finance.

What is your rationale? The commodity bubble has burst, the US dollar is recovering and interest rates remain low: mucho moolah is flowing back into the US stock market. Ja, financials seemed to have played out for the major gains on the upside and risk remains from further write-downs. Airline action was manic today. Still, OPEC honchos say $80 is nrml, not $114. LDK earnings massively beat estimates... gonna be a lots o' action in the solar sector on the morrow. TAN ETF alone is up 5% after hours.

My rationale? Fear. And that pesky little credit problem we have. Risk is increasing as prices rise yet market people are getting more confident. Normal markets don't have big cap prices moving up or down 10-20% in a day like we seen the past 2 months.

I'm up good bit for the year so I'm going into protect mode as we head towards normally negative volatile time of the year (Sept/Oct).

 

[Auric]

Goggle finance has been flaky since yesterday... perhaps related to the new Blogs and Feeds tabs? I suppose these things can be expected from a li'l $155 billion dollar company.

Crazy that airlines were bid back up ahead of the oil inventory report this morning (which turned out to be the wrong bet).

Financials continue to get wacked... beyond the recent news I wonder how much it is indeed being exacerbated by naked shorting again.

 

[ponyo]

Do you know what makes this game so tough? You can have the right idea but still come up empty because you were tad early or late. Oil and commodities got their dead cat bounce and the airlines and the financials were pressured. Of course I missed out on this countertrend rally because I had my call and put buys at slightly lower level. :frown:

 

[Auric]

Welp, I suppose instead of trying to hit the precise turning point, wait for it and accept a lesser gain. Despite having the right idea, the inclination I must resist is reckoning I have missed out just because it is the first 5% or whatever.