Yep, nice financials rebound. Do you trade UYG & SKF ETFs?
LCC had its wings clipped with a dilutive offering but UAUA continues to soar (opposite the burrowing owl of oil) though it remains turbulent.
Solars have finally decoupled apparently and are being helped along with that huge PG&E deal (SPWR). SOL is doing nicely and indeed just got an added pop from being mentioned by an Eaton Vance manager on CNBC. Worth the novely, at least.
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Oh, goggle removed those tabs after two days of suckage so maybe they were indeed to blame.
LCC had its wings clipped with a dilutive offering but UAUA continues to soar (opposite the burrowing owl of oil) though it remains turbulent.
Solars have finally decoupled apparently and are being helped along with that huge PG&E deal (SPWR). SOL is doing nicely and indeed just got an added pop from being mentioned by an Eaton Vance manager on CNBC. Worth the novely, at least.
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Oh, goggle removed those tabs after two days of suckage so maybe they were indeed to blame.
no I don't do ETFs, currently holding ABK, sold all my mbi this morning, and bought some RDN at $3.95 this morning...RDN is taking off like a mofo now...
Do you reckon ABK can recover to pre-March levels? A quick read reveals they have lost much of their bidness and credibility so even if financially stable now could have have trouble getting it back.
I was learning to trade option, is there real-time quote for option price? I don't see it on my scottrade account.
I'd love to see the stock recover back to pre March levels...lets face it, there is no guarantee in life, ABK's book value is at least 3x the current stock price, the stock price is low because of shorters, and the overall market conditions. This is the prefect time to make some serious money. who knows, maybe they will get boughtout by Buffett.
Better to come up empty than to lose your shirt.
Since the beginning of this year, my goal was to buy my 1st financial company (BAC).
I had a price of $35. Then I lowered it to $30 after the anounced CFC buyout late in January.
When BAC hit $25, I kept thinking to myself..."Do I know everything about this company to make a sound decision?" How the hell do people figure out "Who owes what, and to whom?" when it comes to these financial companies?
It hit $21 when I last took a look at it, but I still wasn't fazed.
Now it's sitting at $30.
Most importantly:
Sure I may have lost a golden opportunity, but I'm still ahead of those holding financials/banks YTD, 1 year and probably including 3-5 year returns as well.
I repeat that phrase to myself everyday.
My "big dogs" (top 5 holdings) which constitute a total 51.2% of portfolio are doing great.
LUK, GILD, JNJ, KFT, UNP.
My healthcare stocks which constitutes 25.4% of the portfolio holdings(more than any industry) are doing great.
GILD, JNJ, TEVA, ESRX, COV, MR, MYL.
Completely new postitions postitions I opened this year...
KFT is doing excellent as I thought it would.
WMI is still a profitable investment, but they need to get their minds completely of the RSG merger and focus on their own company.
ACF is trading sideways, but the limited amount I invested is not enough for me to lose my shirt or affect the portfolio returns, period.
GE: The same with ACF.
I don't know about anyone else but I'm pleased with my returns.
I don't care about making 100% returns day in, day out by playing the day trading game or investing in companies that I "may" like that do not pass my gut/conscience test.
Warren Buffett is not an idiot.
Why would he buy it when he can build his own from scratch for cheaper with his company's AAA+ rating?
Why would he buy them when he can simply take what Ambac and MBIA already insured and re-insure them for much higher profits AND less risk?
Why would he do that when he knows that the CT power-hungry Attorney General will scream monopoly?
That doesn't make any sense.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Oh trust me, I know I'm not going to catch everything or be correct all the time. I know full well, opportunities are made up easier than losses. It's just human nature to second guess or look back on a trade and kick oneself. I'm usually pretty good about moving on. Had lot of experience over the years beating myself silly and know it's just waste of time and energy.
You'll get another chance to buy BAC at $21. July 15 low wasn't the ultimate bottom for the financials IMO. I expect the banking index to hit mid 40s again and maybe down to high 20s before this credit crunch is all said and done. I know that sounds extreme bearish and alarmist like but that could happen if we have a crash which the risk is increasing IMO.
I sold 25% of my Kraft position today at $33. Still love the name and think it's one of the best name in this environment but I have to stick with my gameplan.
See the stealth recovery of Unitedhealth and Wellpoint? Very low key move up which is bullish.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
I have only looked back with regret on rare occasion. I only regret buying WM. My only true mistake.
Sound insane? You should read this:
http://www.fool.com/investing/...nd-his-20-punches.aspx
Seth Klarman bought UNH last quarter. I think this was announced yesterday. I am starting to really like this guy and might follow him like I follow Buffett (who only bought/sol 4 or 5 stocks last quarter and no banks!). Banks did tank in July though, so the next Berkshire quarterly report might show some buys in the banking sector.
I'm not a fan of health insurers. I've never been able to understand people's fascination with them.
I don't consider them to be in the healthcare industry at all either.
If so, then we better start comparing Berkshire, All-State, Progressive, and State Farm to GM and Ford.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Since you are Lothar (probably the one I respect most when it comes to investing), you do know the beauty of insurance companies, correct? I suppose health care is similar to auto insurance which is dissimilar from home insurance. There is more certainty with the probabilities in auto and health insurance. For a home insurer to have a bad year, it just takes one hurricane. But for health insurance, there is no natural disaster that can effect the expected outcome 12 months later.
And the business model is great. They take money. They do with it what they want for 12 months and give some of it back during those 12 months. Given the probabilistic certainty of health and auto insurance, they are the best segments to invest in. That is the Beauty o of BRK and its ownership of Geico. People give Buffett money then he gives less back to the people that gave him money in the first place. Of course WEB is free to ivnst that money how he sees fit till some of it is returned.
Right now, earnings might slip though as people get more frugal. Profit margins will tighten accross all insurance segments because of this. Things like switching to a higher deductible will lessen the cash flowing into insurance companies. When the economy gets stronger people will be less anal and that is good for margins.
No, I am asking for real-time quote for option price. Yahoo finance doesn't offer this.
I am just wondering if such thing exists?
Originally posted by: Lothar
Warren Buffett is not an idiot.
Why would he buy it when he can build his own from scratch for cheaper with his company's AAA+ rating?
Why would he buy them when he can simply take what Ambac and MBIA already insured and re-insure them for much higher profits AND less risk?
Why would he do that when he knows that the CT power-hungry Attorney General will scream monopoly?
That doesn't make any sense.
Why would he buy it when he can build his own from scratch for cheaper with his company's AAA+ rating?
He did try to buy them, but they told him to fuk off. Buffett is cheap, if he sees value there, he will make the move. What price do you put on 36+yrs of history and experience?
Why would he buy them when he can simply take what Ambac and MBIA already insured and re-insure them for much higher profits AND less risk?
again 30+ yrs of history, know-hows, connections, infrastructure, these are not something you can build over night, and chance to get rid of a competitor, its win-win situation for him.
Just like outback bought out chi-chi's restaurant, chi-chi's was on its last leg, was probably gonna go bankrupt soon, but outback saw value in their real estate and leases so they bought them out.
Why would he do that when he knows that the CT power-hungry Attorney General will scream monopoly?
Dick might leave this one alone for the greater good of the whole bond insurance market, besides, there are other companies out there, so monopoly shouldn't be a problem.
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Lothar
Warren Buffett is not an idiot.
Why would he buy it when he can build his own from scratch for cheaper with his company's AAA+ rating?
Why would he buy them when he can simply take what Ambac and MBIA already insured and re-insure them for much higher profits AND less risk?
Why would he do that when he knows that the CT power-hungry Attorney General will scream monopoly?
That doesn't make any sense.
Why would he buy it when he can build his own from scratch for cheaper with his company's AAA+ rating?
He did try to buy them, but they told him to fuk off. Buffett is cheap, if he sees value there, he will make the move. What price do you put on 36+yrs of history and experience?
Why would he buy them when he can simply take what Ambac and MBIA already insured and re-insure them for much higher profits AND less risk?
again 30+ yrs of history, know-hows, connections, infrastructure, these are not something you can build over night, and chance to get rid of a competitor, its win-win situation for him.
Just like outback bought out chi-chi's restaurant, chi-chi's was on its last leg, was probably gonna go bankrupt soon, but outback saw value in their real estate and leases so they bought them out.
Why would he do that when he knows that the CT power-hungry Attorney General will scream monopoly?
Dick might leave this one alone for the greater good of the whole bond insurance market, besides, there are other companies out there, so monopoly shouldn't be a problem.
AFAIK, Buffett has never tried to buy Ambac or MBIA outright. He only wanted to re-insure their bonds, and they told him to fuck off.
Good luck with your bet. I hope you don't loose your shirt waiting for Buffett to make a bid.
I do know how the general insurance business works.
I was thinking more along the lines of 'if I want health care, I wouldn't pick a health insurer.'
'If I want an insurer, I'd pick auto over health or home.'
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Sold ASFX today for a tidy 150% profit in 13 days Company looks great by the way, it's at .01 right now, if it dips at all I'd buy back in. With the 5 million they secured today they have a valuation around .30 per share..
Company looks great by the way, it's at .01 right now, if it dips at all I'd buy back in. With the 5 million they secured today they have a valuation around .30 per share..
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
I missed the $110 long trade on oil by couple of cents. So I bought some puts on oil since it's near the $120 range. I'm expecting oil to be range bound from 110-120 until it breaks 110 to 100 before election.
Down open was good today. Hopefully we'll get a reversal higher and we'll get the rally that power us to S&P 1340-1350 where people can exit and puts bought.
Down open was good today. Hopefully we'll get a reversal higher and we'll get the rally that power us to S&P 1340-1350 where people can exit and puts bought.
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