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****OFFICAL ALCS THREAD****

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Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: lordtyranus
*sighs*

I don't know why I'm still explaining this to you. With a guy who walks 30 guys in 45 innings (135 outs), he walks a guy for every 4 outs he makes. In a sense, there's a 25% chance of losing the game right there, regardless of batting averages. Min's career average is also .006 behind Oriz's (.272 to .278), and he's a year removed from a .300 season.

BTW, Sheff is down in EVERY category (runs, hits, 2b, HR, RBI, K, SB, avg, OBP, SLG, OPS) besides walks compared to last year. He was twice the MVP candidate last year (without the yankees lineup around him). But of course he was in the NL. The same is true for Rodriguez, who hit 57 homers 2 years ago.

If these 4 players had played at 2003 levels, the Yankees won 130 games this year.
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Ortiz batted .301 in the regular season, so he had a 30.1% chance to get a hit and win the game vs 25% of Loaiza, you have your answer right there. Or you could even up that to 40% since Ortiz is batting .400 in the last two games (now .500 after the hit).

Sheff still spearheaded an offense that had over 60 come from behind wins, so what if his career numbers are down? Noone on NY batted over .300 in the regular season nor set a career high, but they still won over 100 games. The combination of Shef's late game heroics and Rivera's insane amount of saves is what won them the division, neither had career highs and they didn't have to, they were still greater than their peers.

You bring up ONE error by Matsui, so what? It's well known that he is fundamentally sound, rarely anyone goes the entire season without making an error. NY is fundamentally sound, I don't recall any mental mistakes they have made in the playoffs nor frequent, sloppy fielding by their starters.
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Um, you kind of neglected Mien's batting average. The walk supercedes mien's average, meaning:

Pitch to Ortiz: 40% loss (if you want to use that total)
Walk Ortiz, pitch to mien: 25% chance to walk (loss) regardless of the batter.

In the probability that he doesn't walk (75%), 23.8% of those atbats are hits (multiply to get 18%). Total them, which gives you a 43% chance of losing.

This also neglects a passed ball.
 
Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Um, you kind of neglected Mien's batting average. The walk supercedes mien's average, meaning:

Pitch to Ortiz: 40% loss (if you want to use that total)
Walk Ortiz, pitch to mien: 25% chance to walk (loss) regardless of the batter.

In the probability that he doesn't walk (75%), 23.8% of those atbats are hits (multiply to get 18%). Total them, which gives you a 43% chance of losing.

This also neglects a passed ball.
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True, but how many passed balls does Posada have? How many wild pitches has Loaiza thrown in his career? If that happened then NY would deserve to lose the game. I also think you haven't factored in Ortiz's "clutch" ability to get the big hit in bigtime situations. That should cancel out Mientkavicz's .238 avg, but it's tough to say. You would also have to factor in Loaiza's "clutch" ability, how privy is he to pressure? He seemed to be awfully clutch 2.5 innings before...
 
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Um, you kind of neglected Mien's batting average. The walk supercedes mien's average, meaning:

Pitch to Ortiz: 40% loss (if you want to use that total)
Walk Ortiz, pitch to mien: 25% chance to walk (loss) regardless of the batter.

In the probability that he doesn't walk (75%), 23.8% of those atbats are hits (multiply to get 18%). Total them, which gives you a 43% chance of losing.

This also neglects a passed ball.
Click to expand...
True, but how many passed balls does Posada have? How many wild pitches has Loaiza thrown in his career? If that happened then NY would deserve to lose the game. I also think you haven't factored in Ortiz's "clutch" ability to get the big hit in bigtime situations. That should cancel out Mientkavicz's .238 avg, but it's tough to say. You would also have to factor in Loaiza's "clutch" ability, how privy is he to pressure? He seemed to be awfully clutch 2.5 innings before...
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the more I think about it, the more i agree that Ortiz should have been walked. the other side might argue about a possible wild pitch or a walk, but i'd rather take my chances againgst Mientkewicz
 
Originally posted by: raildogg
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Um, you kind of neglected Mien's batting average. The walk supercedes mien's average, meaning:

Pitch to Ortiz: 40% loss (if you want to use that total)
Walk Ortiz, pitch to mien: 25% chance to walk (loss) regardless of the batter.

In the probability that he doesn't walk (75%), 23.8% of those atbats are hits (multiply to get 18%). Total them, which gives you a 43% chance of losing.

This also neglects a passed ball.
Click to expand...
True, but how many passed balls does Posada have? How many wild pitches has Loaiza thrown in his career? If that happened then NY would deserve to lose the game. I also think you haven't factored in Ortiz's "clutch" ability to get the big hit in bigtime situations. That should cancel out Mientkavicz's .238 avg, but it's tough to say. You would also have to factor in Loaiza's "clutch" ability, how privy is he to pressure? He seemed to be awfully clutch 2.5 innings before...
Click to expand...

the more I think about it, the more i agree that Ortiz should have been walked. the other side might argue about a possible wild pitch or a walk, but i'd rather take my chances againgst Mientkewicz
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I agree. Ortiz has more than proven that he is clutch. Walk him.

 
Originally posted by: raildogg
Originally posted by: lordtyranus
Originally posted by: ThePresence
Originally posted by: blakeatwork
Originally posted by: isekii
Originally posted by: blakeatwork
After watching the bits and pieces of Game 3 Saturday... i honestly didn't think Boston would have the cajones to come out and win 2 straight... Been a Boston and NY hater (TO fan), but hats off to both teams for some gutsy performances... who knew Loaiza would actually pitch, VS lobbing the ball in? Wakefield pitched lights out.. that knuckler was absolutely insane last night..

This series makes it great to be a baseball fan, no matter who you might be cheering for (For the record, I'm hoping Boston wins... cheer for the underdog.. 😀)
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Yanks were the underdogs going in.
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Even with Boston blowing the cover off the ball against Anaheim (no big feat really), I considered the Yankees a favorite in the ALCS... Yankees, in the last 8-10 years, have been lights out in the playoffs... and with having near the same core of players year in and year out (this year being the exception), I didn't see any reason not to choose the Yanks to win... (that, and the Beantown Curse...😛)

Again, I hope Boston wins, though I'm sure they'd blow the World Series somehow...

😀
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It IS a big feat to beat up on the Angels. They have the best bullpen in baseball.
This years core is different and not as good as recent Yankee teams. That's enough of a reason why people picked Boston.
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I agree. I think this year's Yankee team has gone away from the fundamentals, clutch hitting, and small things that won them those WS rings and gone for a mass of all stars and flashiness.

If anything is to be learned from this year, it is that you can't buy a title, no matter how much you spend. They picked up a small army of stellar performers last year (Brown, Sheffield, Arod, Vazquez) only to see them all fall short this year.

If I was the Yankees, I'd be worried. The sox are back into this with miserable performances from their best pitcher and hitter.
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Arod and Sheffield have fallen short??? how so? in what way?!!

Both these guys are MVP candidates
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Where is last years Arod and Sheffield? Moreso Arod?

whoops, one error means no fundamentals?
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When better to judge a player, than when a playoff game is on the line?
 
I still think walking Ortiz would be a bad idea for many reasons. First, Ortiz does strike out often if pitched to well. He's slow, leaving the chance open to pull a "knock down then throw" out with a hard hit ball. Damon was at 2nd, so not just any single would have brought him in. With Ortiz up and 3rd open the pitcher doesn't have to be perfect and can always back down to a walk if he gets behind in the count.

Mientkavicz is really (unfairly or unintentionally) being bashed and looked at as an easy out. His average wasn't high but he had other factors working for him. He's been hitting well in clutch situations while getting most at bats in games where Boston was ahead and he didn't need to get the big hit. He has more experience than Ortiz in many ways. Remember that he's a starting 1st baseman who is only on the bench because of how good Millar/Nixon are in the playoffs. He laid down 2 perfect bunts recently, so the option of the squeeze at home would still be an option, at least, with a guy on 3rd. And of course, earlier in the game he knocked 2 or 3 foul balls out of the park. He seemed to be "on" and I would have been happy to give him the chance to win it.

Sending Ortiz was a shocker I was very impressed with. He was safe IMO, but it was close and the ump seemed as surprised as anyone. Since nobody holds him on 1st his odds get better. If he makes it we may be talking about Pokey making it home from 2nd instead of Ortiz's blooper.

I've watched almost every Boston game this year (MLB extra innings, thank you DirectTV) and Matsui played left at Fenway better than ANY visiting left fielder. As SP33Demon mentioned, Matsui pulled a fake out using the wall that I'll never forget. He never gives away any information on how he's playing the ball which slows up all the baserunners.

To end the rant, Theo, please resign Pedro! Even when he's not his best he's still better than most. When he's on, well everyone knows what happens when he's on. The announcers mentioned he might demand "Shilling money" as if Pedro didn't deserve it. Big Shill makes $12 million a year, if Pedro signs at that it's a steal. The lack of good starting pitching to replace him with is also a factor. They need to sign, in order, Tek, Pedro, Cabrera, then Lowe. While I'd like to keep this exact team intact it's not an option in the free agency era. If Theo keeps 3 of the 4 Boston will remain very tough.

Someone should throw McCarver out of his announcer's seat and replace him with any inanimate object, if you can't say something informative shut up.
 
Originally posted by: ThePresence
Yeah, it's cold and rainy here in central Jersey now.
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Thanks for the update, keep them coming. You're a sick man ThePresence, I blame you for me defending a Yankee in my posts. 🙂 Tempt me with the dark side, I see what games you're playing.

:beer: to Reebok if Schilling pitches well today.
 
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Man I REALLY hope it's not a rain out.
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Me too. This could be an easy game to steal by one side or another if it does get played. Whichever offense takes better advantage of tired pitching could take an easy win.
 
Would they ever shorten a game like this if one team is ahead by the 6th inning or do you think they would just delay it until the next day if it starts pouring?
 
Originally posted by: Doggiedog
Would they ever shorten a game like this if one team is ahead by the 6th inning or do you think they would just delay it until the next day if it starts pouring?
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I doubt that it will pour, maybe drizzle.
 
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Originally posted by: Doggiedog
Would they ever shorten a game like this if one team is ahead by the 6th inning or do you think they would just delay it until the next day if it starts pouring?
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I doubt that it will pour, maybe drizzle.
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Make it a hypothetical situation then.
 
Originally posted by: Doggiedog
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Originally posted by: Doggiedog
Would they ever shorten a game like this if one team is ahead by the 6th inning or do you think they would just delay it until the next day if it starts pouring?
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I doubt that it will pour, maybe drizzle.
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Make it a hypothetical situation then.
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Most liklely or get some scuba gear out.😀
 
Originally posted by: ThePresence
Yeah, it's cold and rainy here in central Jersey now.
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In the lower 50s (feels a bit colder however, with the dampness) in the city, at the moment. Not raining per se, but threatening looking to say the least. Will not be at all surprised if the game is played.

Was an exciting game to watch last evening, even with a loss. Though some of the comments here were a bit negative, believe most that watched will agree it was a great game, even if the outcome wasn't exactly what a particular side wanted.
 
Originally posted by: ActuaryTm
Originally posted by: ThePresence
Yeah, it's cold and rainy here in central Jersey now.
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In the lower 50s (feels a bit colder however, with the dampness) in the city. Not raining per se, but threatening looking to say the least. Will not be at all surprised if the game is played.

Was an exciting game to watch last evening, even with a loss. Though some of the comments here were a bit negative, believe most that watched will agree it was a great game, even if the outcome wasn't exactly what a particular side wanted.
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Yep. Yesterday's game is what baseball is all about.
 
Originally posted by: Brule
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Man I REALLY hope it's not a rain out.
Click to expand...

Me too. This could be an easy game to steal by one side or another if it does get played. Whichever offense takes better advantage of tired pitching could take an easy win.
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You know that Schilling, if pitching well, could easily pitch a complete game... 😉 Whichever team can get to the starter first has a good shot of winning it.

 
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Brule
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Man I REALLY hope it's not a rain out.
Click to expand...

Me too. This could be an easy game to steal by one side or another if it does get played. Whichever offense takes better advantage of tired pitching could take an easy win.
Click to expand...
You know that Schilling, if pitching well, could easily pitch a complete game... 😉 Whichever team can get to the starter first has a good shot of winning it.
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I highly doubt they will let him throw too many pitches tonight with an ankle that needs surgery. They don't want to threaten his career.
 
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Brule
Originally posted by: virtueixi
Man I REALLY hope it's not a rain out.
Click to expand...

Me too. This could be an easy game to steal by one side or another if it does get played. Whichever offense takes better advantage of tired pitching could take an easy win.
Click to expand...
You know that Schilling, if pitching well, could easily pitch a complete game... 😉 Whichever team can get to the starter first has a good shot of winning it.
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Isn't that a bit obvious?

I see Schilling going no more than 5 innings with his bad ankle. Wakefield will probably come out pitch long relief until they can get to Foulke again.
 
LOL the Yanks get revenge on Sox management.

From the Daily News:

Yankees get suite revenge

Here's a Yankees-Red Sox "suite story" that not surprisingly is actually not so sweet. It seems when John Henry and the rest of the Red Sox ownership group arrived at Yankee Stadium for Game 1 of the ALCS last week they were informed that the luxury suite they'd been accustomed to getting was not available.

Instead, they were assigned seats outside by the Red Sox dugout - in the midst of alien Yankee Nation. I'm told they were not pleased, although when an inquiry was made to the Yankees about it, a source said it was merely a reciprocation for the lousy seats their limited partners and officials were given at last year's ALCS at Fenway Park.

"They were about the farthest suite - if you could call it that - down the left-field line," said one of the limited Yankee partners. "You had to walk a plank to get into this suite and then you had to crane your head just to see the plate. It had to be the worst suite in the ballpark."

When they arrived at Fenway for Game 3, Yankee officials told the Red Sox not to bother with the suite - that they'd just as soon sit outside in the same sort of box seats by the Yankee dugout as they gave the Sox brass at Yankee Stadium. This is the Yankees' and Red Sox's idea of compromise.
 
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