lordtyranus
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- Aug 23, 2004
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Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Ortiz batted .301 in the regular season, so he had a 30.1% chance to get a hit and win the game vs 25% of Loaiza, you have your answer right there. Or you could even up that to 40% since Ortiz is batting .400 in the last two games (now .500 after the hit).Originally posted by: lordtyranus
*sighs*
I don't know why I'm still explaining this to you. With a guy who walks 30 guys in 45 innings (135 outs), he walks a guy for every 4 outs he makes. In a sense, there's a 25% chance of losing the game right there, regardless of batting averages. Min's career average is also .006 behind Oriz's (.272 to .278), and he's a year removed from a .300 season.
BTW, Sheff is down in EVERY category (runs, hits, 2b, HR, RBI, K, SB, avg, OBP, SLG, OPS) besides walks compared to last year. He was twice the MVP candidate last year (without the yankees lineup around him). But of course he was in the NL. The same is true for Rodriguez, who hit 57 homers 2 years ago.
If these 4 players had played at 2003 levels, the Yankees won 130 games this year.
Sheff still spearheaded an offense that had over 60 come from behind wins, so what if his career numbers are down? Noone on NY batted over .300 in the regular season nor set a career high, but they still won over 100 games. The combination of Shef's late game heroics and Rivera's insane amount of saves is what won them the division, neither had career highs and they didn't have to, they were still greater than their peers.
You bring up ONE error by Matsui, so what? It's well known that he is fundamentally sound, rarely anyone goes the entire season without making an error. NY is fundamentally sound, I don't recall any mental mistakes they have made in the playoffs nor frequent, sloppy fielding by their starters.
Um, you kind of neglected Mien's batting average. The walk supercedes mien's average, meaning:
Pitch to Ortiz: 40% loss (if you want to use that total)
Walk Ortiz, pitch to mien: 25% chance to walk (loss) regardless of the batter.
In the probability that he doesn't walk (75%), 23.8% of those atbats are hits (multiply to get 18%). Total them, which gives you a 43% chance of losing.
This also neglects a passed ball.
