Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

[Indus]

It will never cease to amaze me how people seem to think when a team plays two games, loses 10-8 in one game and then loses 14-10 in the second they did better in the second game because despite losing by more they scored more runs.

Like, do people understand the point of the 'game' here?

2001 world series.. total score diamondbacks 37, yankees 14.

But the Yankees almost pulled it off with 4 squeakers. Fucking infield being in!

 

[MrSquished]

Plenty of us are unhappy, we just have jobs, and lives, and can't dedicate our entire day to posting the exact same thing over and over again on this message board.

call or email your local democratic politicians and urge them to stand up to Biden

 

[MrSquished]

It will never cease to amaze me how people seem to think when a team plays two games, loses 10-8 in one game and then loses 14-10 in the second they did better in the second game because despite losing by more they scored more runs.

Like, do people understand the point of the 'game' here?

Comparing the complexities of the nationwide American political system with both national and state legislatures and electoral votes, to a baseball game.

It will never cease to amaze me the kind of absolutely stupid comparisons people will make just to back their point of view, vs actually trying to do better as a party. Pathetic.

 

[K1052]

You know while I have a preference about what happens on the D ticket the number of otherwise intelligent people I see penning pieces or posting about how the election is probably already over is simply insane. All it takes is the Rs for exhibit some confidence, well founded or not, and they're nodding along. On the plus side totally panicking D voters might yield some benefit.

 

[fskimospy]

You know while I have a preference about what happens on the D ticket the number of otherwise intelligent people I see penning pieces or posting about how the election is probably already over is simply insane. All it takes is the Rs for exhibit some confidence, well founded or not, and they're nodding along. On the plus side totally panicking D voters might yield some benefit.

What's especially telling is you can say with basically 100% certainty if the situation were reversed people would laugh at you if you said the election was over.

Liberals tend to score highly on measures of neuroticism and this is an excellent example.

 

[brycejones]

Liberals tend to score highly on measures of neuroticism

Totally can't tell with some posters around here......

 

[K1052]

What's especially telling is you can say with basically 100% certainty if the situation were reversed people would laugh at you if you said the election was over.

Liberals tend to score highly on measures of neuroticism and this is an excellent example.

Vividly remember 2020 when Biden was running away with the polls that many Dems were white knuckling their way thru E day because of 2016 trauma.

 

[MrSquished]

You know while I have a preference about what happens on the D ticket the number of otherwise intelligent people I see penning pieces or posting about how the election is probably already over is simply insane. All it takes is the Rs for exhibit some confidence, well founded or not, and they're nodding along. On the plus side totally panicking D voters might yield some benefit.

I have never said this election is over, because there is a long time until the election. I still think Biden can win, but it's just pins and needles on that right now. I also don't see him getting better as a candidate, it more depends on Trump imploding which is perfectly possible.

But, we should be trying to increase our odds of winning. If the majority of people here contact and urge their local Dem pols to stand up to Biden, I'll shut up about the obvious reality we face.

But there are still people totally in denial, even going so far as to compare the entire American political structure and elections to a baseball game lol

 

[K1052]

I have never said this election is over, because there is a long time until the election.

But, we should be trying to increase our odds of winning. If the majority of people here contact and urge their local Dem pols to stand up to Biden, I'll shut up about the obvious reality we face.

But there are still people totally in denial, even going so far as to compare the entire American political structure and elections to a baseball game lol

I am not necessarily accusing anyone here of doing this.

 

[repoman0]

Why aren't more of you really fucking angry and calling and emailing your reps/Senators?

Who says we’re not. I wrote the three of mine for the first time ever to let them know I voted Biden in 2020 and in the primary and am no longer happy with him at the top of the ticket. If it was just me it’d be one thing, but in my family and friends circle of a bunch of intelligent people, it’s pretty universal that yeah everyone is voting for Biden anyway but we all think it’s a joke that he’s our guy.

 

[dank69]

Where are all the calls from Republicans for Trump to step down after falling asleep on camera at the RNC?

 

[K1052]

Where are all the calls from Republicans for Trump to step down after falling asleep on camera at the RNC?

He was just recharging his Holy force field.

 

[repoman0]

Where are all the calls from Republicans for Trump to step down after falling asleep on camera at the RNC?

They have no standards obviously. Doesn’t mean we don’t either

 

[gothuevos]

It will never cease to amaze me how people seem to think when a team plays two games, loses 10-8 in one game and then loses 14-10 in the second they did better in the second game because despite losing by more they scored more runs.

Like, do people understand the point of the 'game' here?

Yes you're right, my fault, "vote share" was not the right term I was looking for.

What I meant is that he got more overall votes than he did in 2016, the point being is that he didn't lose votes as a sign of "repudiation."

 

[cytg111]

538 getting a little more bullish on Biden.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813236824082436169

If you time it juuust right you will catch the dead cat bounce at its peak come november......

 

[dank69]

Yes you're right, my fault, "vote share" was not the right term I was looking for.

What I meant is that he got more overall votes than he did in 2016, the point being is that he didn't lose votes as a sign of "repudiation."

He increased votes against him as a sign of repudiation.

 

[cytg111]

Could Trumps surge in media limelight also ignite the dem vote? I mean, I bet a-lot would stay home cause "it's in the bank"- but maybe now they're shitting their pants all over again (like some of us here, me included).

 

[Puffnstuff]

The RNC was smart to have the teamsters president speak at their convention which will deceive some of their membership to vote red this fall.

 

[eelw]

The RNC was smart to have the teamsters president speak at their convention which will deceive some of their membership to vote red this fall.

Watched interview with him. He said in no way he’s recommending the union to endorse the orange monkey. The members will hold a vote closer to the election on who they’ll give their endorsement to.

 

[gothuevos]

Sobering read, but good suggestion on Sotomayor retiring NOW.

It’s Time to Prepare for the Worst

Trump will probably win. What can small-d democrats do to get ready?

www.thebulwark.com

 

[fskimospy]

Sobering read, but good suggestion on Sotomayor retiring NOW.

It’s Time to Prepare for the Worst

Trump will probably win. What can small-d democrats do to get ready?

www.thebulwark.com

The election doomerism is stupidity made to drive clicks but yes, Sotomayor should retire.

 

[Indus]

Sobering read, but good suggestion on Sotomayor retiring NOW.

It’s Time to Prepare for the Worst

Trump will probably win. What can small-d democrats do to get ready?

www.thebulwark.com

Don't talk about good suggestions.. Sotomayor is determined to do what RBG did!

 

[manly]

Your mind is fucking melted dude. The racist Indian cabbie demographic did a number on you. If Kamala wasn't the VP right now and it was someone you liked, I bet you might be singing a different tune about Biden.

So sad.

QFT. Anyone who claims we should partition the U.S. isn't even worth engaging in conversation. Guy adds about as much value to these forums as Greenman does.

While:
1) It's a long time from election day so forecasts don't mean much
2) 538 has changed ownership so who knows if that's led to internal changes that make their forecasts worse
3) nobody's perfect

538 has a very strong track record, having called every presidential election correctly except for 2016 and even then they were the only major outlet sounding the alarm that Trump had a real chance of winning.

As you noted, 538 actually had the best "call" in 2016 so I wouldn't even say they missed.
No idea how their current model is slightly bullish on Joe Biden.

 

[MrSquished]

QFT. Anyone who claims we should partition the U.S. isn't even worth engaging in conversation. Guy adds about as much value to these forums as Greenman does.



As you noted, 538 actually had the best "call" in 2016 so I wouldn't even say they missed.
No idea how their current model is slightly bullish on Joe Biden.

Wasn't calling one of the Obama elections what what made Nate silver famous or am I remembering wrong?

 

[Moonbeam]

The sounds of the nattering nabobs of negativism whose wailing and weeping and gnashing of teeth we here about the coming election are just the inevitable projections of repressed childhood trauma surfacing. It is there to kill the possibility of suffering any disappointment generated by having hope of winning. Self haters are terrified of winning because they used to feel the joy of being before having anything positive beaten out of them. The only safety lies in cowering. This is how we are and why we deny truth.