Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

[K1052]

Yes, but public discourse has not done the same, making it a difficult bridge to cross.

I'm not super convinced that there necessarily has to be a public groundswell for one particular person for it to be workable. Especially if the most likely person is already the VP and on the ticket. It's also not like anybody can openly campaign for themselves at this point.

I bet the surveys are more reflective of the media feedback loop the party has fed more than general unhappiness (but that's probably hard to truly measure). Publicly eating your own party despite raging successes in policy seems to be something the Democratic party and it's supporting nonprofit industrial complex has been good at over the last few years.

Off the top of my head, successes (and backbiting) include:
-Getting out of Afghanistan ("done the wrong way" or "new proxy wars")
-Preventing a Christmas strike but getting RR workers what they ultimately wanted (anti-bedtime crowd upset)
- Largely ended the drone war (not a peep from the "I hate drones" crowd)
- Large bills to support advanced manufacturing in the US
- Largest climate bill with a slim majority and a coal Barron wannabe (crickets from many large climate groups)
- Numerous judges appointed
- Student loan forgiveness and payment programs fixed ("he should have done it faster because then the judiciary couldn't block it" or "he didn't do it the right way")
- NLRB actually creating pro-union environment
- other federal departments actually working for the good of the country and not just atrophying expertise

The media is unfair, unbalanced and I see no prospect for that changing. How policy moves manifest in the minds of voters is also largely beyond the control of politicians to decisively influence by talking and focusing on the past tense likely a lot less productive than talking about the future. One particular problem with Biden I've been noticing is that he is stuck in the alley of admiring his own foreign policy accomplishments when challenged on anything which most presidential cycle voters absolutely do not give a fuck about.

 

[eelw]

Yup media thinking they anoint the next POTUS

 

[dlerious]

I’m not sure where you got the idea that Americans don’t like socialism. Americans LOVE socialism!

This is a dumb policy idea but it’s never going to be enacted so who cares.

It’s like Trump’s tariff idea - it would set off a catastrophic recession and cause massive inflation but he’s betting Americans like it when the government shields huge corporations from capitalism.

What is Trumps tariff idea? Didn't the Biden administration not only keep Trumps China tariffs, but added more to them back in May?

 

[K1052]

What is Trumps tariff idea? Didn't the Biden administration not only keep Trumps China tariffs, but added more to them back in May?

Trump proposes a 60% base tariff on ALL goods from China and a 10% tariff for everywhere else (to start). This is way more aggressive than his first term or anything Biden has maintained/done. If implemented these figures will undoubtedly rise as those countries retaliate.

 

[Brainonska511]

What is Trumps tariff idea? Didn't the Biden administration not only keep Trumps China tariffs, but added more to them back in May?

As far as government policies go, immediate rollback of tariffs for nothing in return would seem like a bad idea. Part of what makes the US a good trading partner is stability and predictability. From a country level perspective, we might as well use the tariffs instituted rightly or wrongly by the prior administration as leverage to get better deals.

 

[K1052]

As far as government policies go, immediate rollback of tariffs for nothing in return would seem like a bad idea. Part of what makes the US a good trading partner is stability and predictability. From a country level perspective, we might as well use the tariffs instituted rightly or wrongly by the prior administration as leverage to get better deals.

Voters generally favor the idea of tariffs because they don't know how they work also. As long as the economic drag does not become noticeable to them personally they never rethink this position. A blanket 60% tariff on Chinese goods is going to be quite noticeable to consumers.

 

[MrSquished]

The Biden team reportedly has given up on any swing states not named Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That is their line to squeak to 270.

This is just fucking sad. I know downballot Dems are polling better than Biden but still, this is pathetic. How can we have sunk so damn low? We needed to be fighting for all the others to affect every downballot race in every district in any state that isn't necessarily a huge Senate race. We need the goddamn house too.

The Biden ego team is basically fucking us, and not enough Democrats have the balls to end this by enough unifying around a step down message.

Why aren't more of you really fucking angry and calling and emailing your reps/Senators?

 

[Indus]

The Biden team reportedly has given up on any swing states not named Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That is their line to squeak to 270.

This is just fucking sad. I know downballot Dems are polling better than Biden but still, this is pathetic. How can we have sunk so damn low? We needed to be fighting for all the others to affect every downballot race in every district in any state that isn't necessarily a huge Senate race. We need the goddamn house too.

The Biden ego team is basically fucking us, and not enough Democrats have the balls to end this by enough unifying around a step down message.

Why aren't more of you really fucking angry and calling and emailing your reps/Senators?

Perhaps you forgot a ton of swing states with GOP legislatures put together legislation they can override the will of the voters already.

If you appeal to calvinball court, you lose.

What Biden's doing is smart.. focusing on those he has a chance to win instead of spending what limited non donor money he has on a pipe dream.

GA is gone. NV might be winnable but not when they rig court cases against J6 conspirators out.

MI, WI, PA is the best bet.

AZ seems a stretch at this point but who knows in a month or two where the winds change.

I'm a realist and I'm telling you.. you should take the national divorce NOW!

 

[MrSquished]

Perhaps you forgot a ton of swing states with GOP legislatures put together legislation they can override the will of the voters already.

If you appeal to calvinball court, you lose.

What Biden's doing is smart.. focusing on those he has a chance to win instead of spending what limited non donor money he has on a pipe dream.

GA is gone. NV might be winnable but not when they rig court cases against J6 conspirators out.

MI, WI, PA is the best bet.

AZ seems a stretch at this point but who knows in a month or two where the winds change.

I'm a realist and I'm telling you.. you should take the national divorce NOW!

I don't think you really understood what is happening. It's not smart because you have zero margin for error, and it's fucking pathetic because you are basically acknowledging your candidate is so weak, you have to focus on the bare minimum. Is that what we want in a candidate? We need not just to win, but to get the House and Senate back and every fucking downballot race in the country, and make this election a total repudiation of Trump. Also we know they are going to contest the election, wouldn't you want some more electoral votes from different states to give yourself a buffer from that? Yes, you do.

Biden is failing us so so so badly.

Bigly sad.

 

[Indus]

I don't think you really understood what is happening. It's not smart because you have zero margin for error, and it's fucking pathetic because you are basically acknowledging your candidate is so weak, you have to focus on the bare minimum. Is that what we want in a candidate? We need not just to win, but to get the House and Senate back and every fucking downballot race in the country, and make this election a total repudiation of Trump. Also we know they are going to contest the election, wouldn't you want some more electoral votes from different states to give yourself a buffer from that? Yes, you do.

Biden is failing us so so so badly.

Bigly sad.

Stop blaming biden and start blaming the voters.

They can't get it through their heads what a win for Trump means or maybe they're okay with it. Either way the decision is in their hands not Biden's.

Biden's just gotta do 2 things.. be alive and draw a contrast.

 

[Roger Wilco]

538 getting a little more bullish on Biden.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813236824082436169

 

[MrSquished]

Stop blaming biden and start blaming the voters.

They can't get it through their heads what a win for Trump means or maybe they're okay with it. Either way the decision is in their hands not Biden's.

Biden's just gotta do 2 things.. be alive and draw a contrast.

This is just sad and pathetic. Imagine thinking the candidate doesn't matter.

That is simply not the real world and never has been, and this is a really dumb time to start to pretend that it is.

 

[Indus]

This is just sad and pathetic. Imagine thinking the candidate doesn't matter.

That is simply not the real world and never has been, and this is a really dumb time to start to pretend that it is.

You can bitch, you can whine, you can post 10,000 posts till election day but all you're doing is figuring out 10,000 daydreams don't become reality.

He won the election. He gets his shot at Trump. Or are you a MAGAT fascist wanting to overthrow democracy?

It really is that fucking simple. Wake the hell up and start living in reality.

 

[MrSquished]

You can bitch, you can whine, you can post 10,000 posts till election day but all you're doing is figuring out 10,000 daydreams don't become reality.

He won the election. He gets his shot at Trump. Or are you a MAGAT fascist wanting to overthrow democracy?

It really is that fucking simple. Wake the hell up and start living in reality.

Your mind is fucking melted dude. The racist Indian cabbie demographic did a number on you. If Kamala wasn't the VP right now and it was someone you liked, I bet you might be singing a different tune about Biden.

So sad.

 

[Indus]

Your mind is fucking melted dude. The racist Indian cabbie demographic did a number on you. If Kamala wasn't the VP right now and it was someone you liked, I bet you might be singing a different tune about Biden.

So sad.

Did you have a stroke? You keep mumbling jibberish that doesn't make any sense.

 

[Puffnstuff]

538 getting a little more bullish on Biden.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813236824082436169

538 is always wrong come election day.

 

[MrSquished]

A good summary of the Holt interview. A good candidate if they are not being asked policy questions direct, they actually react nimbly and answer a question but then pivot well to highlighting policy differences. Biden is simply not capable. He is a shitty candidate.

"Anyone who was impressed with the Lester Holt / Biden interview is definitely grading on a curve. He did fine for an 81yo. He rambled, went on strange tangents, didn’t so much dodge questions as meander around them, and got frustrated easily.A better candidate would have answered concerns succinctly then pushed their core message, highlighting strong policy differences with the opposition and focusing on next term priorities.Instead we get, “[clears throat] God love you!”"

 

[fskimospy]

538 is always wrong come election day.

While:
1) It's a long time from election day so forecasts don't mean much
2) 538 has changed ownership so who knows if that's led to internal changes that make their forecasts worse
3) nobody's perfect

538 has a very strong track record, having called every presidential election correctly except for 2016 and even then they were the only major outlet sounding the alarm that Trump had a real chance of winning.

 

[JD50]

The Biden team reportedly has given up on any swing states not named Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That is their line to squeak to 270.

This is just fucking sad. I know downballot Dems are polling better than Biden but still, this is pathetic. How can we have sunk so damn low? We needed to be fighting for all the others to affect every downballot race in every district in any state that isn't necessarily a huge Senate race. We need the goddamn house too.

The Biden ego team is basically fucking us, and not enough Democrats have the balls to end this by enough unifying around a step down message.

Why aren't more of you really fucking angry and calling and emailing your reps/Senators?

Plenty of us are unhappy, we just have jobs, and lives, and can't dedicate our entire day to posting the exact same thing over and over again on this message board.

 

[gothuevos]

This is just sad and pathetic. Imagine thinking the candidate doesn't matter.

That is simply not the real world and never has been, and this is a really dumb time to start to pretend that it is.

I think you're both right.

Obviously the candidate matters. But how do we change the minds of such a large number of voters? There was never going to be a "total repudiation" blue wave wipe out of Trump. At best it would be Dems holding onto the WH and again obtaining slim majorities like in 2020. You forget that Trump increased his vote share from 2016 to 2020.

And I agree with you that it sends such a weak message to try to just obtain the bare minimum needed. It doesn't project confidence at all and risks depressing turn out.

Just an absolute bizarre last few weeks for Dems.

 

[Indus]

Plenty of us are unhappy, we just have jobs, and lives, and can't dedicate our entire day to posting the exact same thing over and over again on this message board.

And some of us know when to take a vacation for mental health!

 

[fskimospy]

I think you're both right.

Obviously the candidate matters. But how do we change the minds of such a large number of voters? There was never going to be a "total repudiation" blue wave wipe out of Trump. At best it would be Dems holding onto the WH and again obtaining slim majorities like in 2020. You forget that Trump increased his vote share from 2016 to 2020.

And I agree with you that it sends such a weak message to try to just obtain the bare minimum needed. It doesn't project confidence at all and risks depressing turn out.

Just an absolute bizarre last few weeks for Dems.

If you're going to talk about vote margins wouldn't it be more important to remember that Trump's margin of defeat in the overall vote increased from 2016 to 2020, in both absolute and percentage numbers?

Like it doesn't help when guy A gets 10 more votes if guy B got 20 more.

 

[Indus]

I think you're both right.

Obviously the candidate matters. But how do we change the minds of such a large number of voters? There was never going to be a "total repudiation" blue wave wipe out of Trump. At best it would be Dems holding onto the WH and again obtaining slim majorities like in 2020. You forget that Trump increased his vote share from 2016 to 2020.

And I agree with you that it sends such a weak message to try to just obtain the bare minimum needed. It doesn't project confidence at all and risks depressing turn out.

Just an absolute bizarre last few weeks for Dems.

If if I know 1 thing about Gen Z, it's that they have trouble keeping focus and seem to suffer from premature climax distracted by constant tik tok/ twitter/ reddit feeds.

Gotta get them to climax at the correct time.. so maybe Joe is right.. relax now.. and slow work up to October and then go really hard at it.

Right now all you can do is get them registered to vote!

But a bigger question is.. if women and men are so upset by roe being overturned? Why aren't they voting for the people who can do something about it? Abortion needs to become a bigger issue and right now it's all about the bullet.

 

[K1052]

You forget that Trump increased his vote share from 2016 to 2020.

Hillary won the PV in 2016 by 2 points. Biden won the PV in 2020 by 4.5 points.

Trump share increased by 0.6%. Dem share increased by 2.5%.

No third parties in 2020 also a factor.

 

[fskimospy]

Hillary won the PV in 2016 by 2 points. Biden won the PV in 2020 by 4.5 points.

Trump share increased by 0.6%. Dem share increased by 2.5%.

No third parties in 2020 also a factor.

It will never cease to amaze me how people seem to think when a team plays two games, loses 10-8 in one game and then loses 14-10 in the second they did better in the second game because despite losing by more they scored more runs.

Like, do people understand the point of the 'game' here?