Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

[Captante]

(1) Have to go with zero percent.

(2) Gavin Newsom.

 

[manly]

I read he looked pretty gassed, mumbling, mixing up words, just after a couple minutes.

Nobody deserves another Trump administration, but really, the Democrats don't deserve us, it's pretty fuckin sad it has come to this.

I wasn't planning to, but I finally watched it. Sub-par, he said "battle box" 2 or 3 times instead of ballot box, in a speech asking for cooler heads. And WTF, he's staring above the camera the whole damn time (I'm guessing the teleprompter is too high up). FFS Who set this shit up and why wasn't it tested before recording? It makes it seem he's staring off into space. The following op is a bit exaggerated, but I can't call it BS.

Biden Fumbles Words, Loses Place More Than 10 Times in Short Oval Office Speech About Assassination Attempt

There are some problems with his attempts to project calm and stability right now.

www.yahoo.com

Not that they're predictive, but with Biden seemingly not leaving the race, betting markets seem to like Trump's chances even more. He's up to 66%, which is a new high for this cycle.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

 

[cytg111]

Yea. I am putting in an recurring order for those adult diapers, think I am gonna need em. This is going to shit gentlemen. Joe is pulling a Ruth.

 

[thilanliyan]

lol you’re already filling your diaper for 2026 now?

Just amazing stuff here, hahahaha.

While I try to be optimistic, everything that's happened recently is taking a toll

I know you think logically but logic flies out the window lately in US politics and even justice it seems.

Didn't you say that Trump is "screwed" wrt the documents case? And look what happened with that.

 

[gothuevos]

While I try to be optimistic, everything that's happened recently is taking a toll

I know you think logically but logic flies out the window lately in US politics and even justice it seems.

Didn't you say that Trump is "screwed" wrt the documents case? And look what happened with that.

It's been a bad few weeks for Dems, starting the debate debacle and now Elon putting his finger/money on the scale documents case being dismissed (for now), etc.

 

[gothuevos]

Yea. I am putting in an recurring order for those adult diapers, think I am gonna need em. This is going to shit gentlemen. Joe is pulling a Ruth.

And now Biden giving his opponents an ACTUAL reason to call him a socialist. Is he throwing in the towel or just clueless here?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812956392786960411

 

[fskimospy]

While I try to be optimistic, everything that's happened recently is taking a toll

I know you think logically but logic flies out the window lately in US politics and even justice it seems.

Didn't you say that Trump is "screwed" wrt the documents case? And look what happened with that.

The documents case isn’t going anywhere, haha. It will be reinstated in short order. If anything this could be helpful as it’s finally an appealable order that can get her removed.

 

[fskimospy]

And now Biden giving his opponents an ACTUAL reason to call him a socialist. Is he throwing in the towel or just clueless here?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812956392786960411

I’m not sure where you got the idea that Americans don’t like socialism. Americans LOVE socialism!

This is a dumb policy idea but it’s never going to be enacted so who cares.

It’s like Trump’s tariff idea - it would set off a catastrophic recession and cause massive inflation but he’s betting Americans like it when the government shields huge corporations from capitalism.

 

[thilanliyan]

The documents case isn’t going anywhere, haha. It will be reinstated in short order. If anything this could be helpful as it’s finally an appealable order that can get her removed.

If/when Trump gets back into power the case is done isn't it? Even if she's removed it won't matter much if Trump wins.
And even if he doesn't win, he seems to have the SC in his back pocket so it doesn't seem like anything will happen to him.

 

[cytg111]

I’m not sure where you got the idea that Americans don’t like socialism. Americans LOVE socialism!

This is a dumb policy idea but it’s never going to be enacted so who cares.

It’s like Trump’s tariff idea - it would set off a catastrophic recession and cause massive inflation but he’s betting Americans like it when the government shields huge corporations from capitalism.

True, but it do amplify the currently ongoing rally PR offensive. It's firing up the dimwits again.

 

[fskimospy]

If/when Trump gets back into power the case is done isn't it? Even if she's removed it won't matter much if Trump wins.
And even if he doesn't win, he seems to have the SC in his back pocket so it doesn't seem like anything will happen to him.

Yes, if Trump wins the case goes away and that’s a real issue.

If he doesn’t win I tend to doubt SCOTUS does much as there’s not much reason to protect someone who is never going to hold power again. (If he loses here very hard to see him running in 2028 even if he’s still alive)

 

[eelw]

Yeah if alive and with the stranglehold he has on the Repugican party, he’ll run from jail in 2028

 

[K1052]

I’m not sure where you got the idea that Americans don’t like socialism. Americans LOVE socialism!

This is a dumb policy idea but it’s never going to be enacted so who cares.

It’s like Trump’s tariff idea - it would set off a catastrophic recession and cause massive inflation but he’s betting Americans like it when the government shields huge corporations from capitalism.

National rent control is very likely to be a popular policy idea even if it is a bad one. But as you say even if he wins there is no way it happens.

 

[K1052]

Reporting indicates the DNC still plans to start the virtual roll call on the 29th. Some complaints that they are still moving ahead with something they don't need to do since Ohio legislated a fix.

Not convinced it really matters other than pushing up a critical decision point for the party leadership that was always going to come anyway.

 

[K1052]

More a Biden fall than a Trump rising story. Trump got 44% in Virginia in 2020. Still butting his head up against his previous vote share basically everywhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813193710282084399

 

[gothuevos]

True, but it do amplify the currently ongoing rally PR offensive. It's firing up the dimwits again.

This is an ongoing massive choke job by this campaign at the worst possible time. Jill and Hunter's fingerprints all over this, time will show.

 

[Brainonska511]

Reporting indicates the DNC still plans to start the virtual roll call on the 29th. Some complaints that they are still moving ahead with something they don't need to do since Ohio legislated a fix.

Not convinced it really matters other than pushing up a critical decision point for the party leadership that was always going to come anyway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813190477870436838

 

[dank69]

More a Biden fall than a Trump rising story. Trump got 44% in Virginia in 2020. Still butting his head up against his previous vote share basically everywhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813193710282084399

I still think when the rubber meets the road in November America is going to tell Trump to fuck off, even if it means voting for the unpopular Biden. While I think many will do the same for Kamala, I think that number will be smaller. I hate this fucking timeline.

 

[Brainonska511]

I still think when the rubber meets the road in November America is going to tell Trump to fuck off, even if it means voting for the unpopular Biden. While I think many will do the same for Kamala, I think that number will be smaller. I hate this fucking timeline.

I wonder if there is just a lot of silent wish casting going on, and people haven't faced the reality that the choices are largely locked in.

 

[K1052]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813190477870436838

Some people are making a lot of this but I'm not. The choices that the D leadership face, in the light of clearly shifting D voter opinion, are a different consideration.

 

[K1052]

I still think when the rubber meets the road in November America is going to tell Trump to fuck off, even if it means voting for the unpopular Biden. While I think many will do the same for Kamala, I think that number will be smaller. I hate this fucking timeline.

This is essentially the Biden campaign bet. That enough voters will come home in the final weeks to carry the rust belt states at a minimum. They might be correct, they might not be.

 

[Brainonska511]

Some people are making a lot of this but I'm not. The choices that the D leadership face, in the light of clearly shifting D voter opinion, are a different consideration.

Yes, voter opinion may have shifted, but without a primary, there isn't a good way to measure that actual shift or legitimately move things around, especially when it's been like 1-3% of movement in polls in July, and the "alternatives" have been all over the map with no coalescing around a particular alternate candidate.

Yes, there are delegates, which in theory represent the party, but I wouldn't trust them to make some good choices (or they'll have things focus-grouped to death). This whole battle seems more and more like a pundit/donor class vs everyone else schism within the party.

 

[K1052]

Yes, voter opinion may have shifted, but without a primary, there isn't a good way to measure that actual shift or legitimately move things around, especially when it's been like 1-3% of movement in polls in July, and the "alternatives" have been all over the map with no coalescing around a particular alternate candidate.

There really is no option besides Harris as comments from the D leadership have generally indicated. Even Biden himself more or less laid out the case when going through the issues with him dropping out. I think it pretty likely she would carry a majority of delegates in an open convention anyway since the delegates are Biden loyalists to begin with and the internal political dynamics at work inside the party.

Yes, there are delegates, which in theory represent the party, but I wouldn't trust them to make some good choices (or they'll have things focus-grouped to death). This whole battle seems more and more like a pundit/donor class vs everyone else schism within the party.

What surveys we have indicate that this is not at all confined to the upper echelons of the party. D voters increasingly dislike the choice they are being asked to make and I can't really blame them at this point.

 

[Pens1566]

Imagine the coverage if Biden fell asleep at the D convention ...

The media fucking sucks.

 

[Brainonska511]

There really is no option besides Harris as comments from the D leadership have generally indicated. Even Biden himself more or less laid out the case when going through the issues with him dropping out. I think it pretty likely she would carry a majority of delegates in an open convention anyway since the delegates are Biden loyalists to begin with and the internal political dynamics at work inside the party.

Yes, but public discourse has not done the same, making it a difficult bridge to cross.

What surveys we have indicate that this is not at all confined to the upper echelons of the party. D voters increasingly dislike the choice they are being asked to make and I can't really blame them at this point.

I bet the surveys are more reflective of the media feedback loop the party has fed more than general unhappiness (but that's probably hard to truly measure). Publicly eating your own party despite raging successes in policy seems to be something the Democratic party and it's supporting nonprofit industrial complex has been good at over the last few years.

Off the top of my head, successes (and backbiting) include:
-Getting out of Afghanistan ("done the wrong way" or "new proxy wars")
-Preventing a Christmas strike but getting RR workers what they ultimately wanted (anti-bedtime crowd upset)
- Largely ended the drone war (not a peep from the "I hate drones" crowd)
- Large bills to support advanced manufacturing in the US
- Largest climate bill with a slim majority and a coal Barron wannabe (crickets from many large climate groups)
- Numerous judges appointed
- Student loan forgiveness and payment programs fixed ("he should have done it faster because then the judiciary couldn't block it" or "he didn't do it the right way")
- NLRB actually creating pro-union environment
- other federal departments actually working for the good of the country and not just atrophying expertise