My understanding is that there was minimal security at that consulate in an Islamic country with many potential hostiles. Like any Islamic country, there are plenty of extremists there. I doubt the spontaneity of it would have changed the assessment. Even with a planned attack, we wouldn't necessarily have had any warning so it may as well have been spontaneous. Yet there is an obligation to provide security either way.
Still, failing to provide security was at best a minor scandal for the election, since everyone knows that Obama doesn't micro-manage such things. OTOH, if they lie about something, that can be a much larger scandal. The cost-benefit just does not add up. This is parallel to a point I once argued with you about the supposed lying of Holder over Fast and Furious. I pointed out that there was very little to cover up there because almost nothing of any scandalous consequence occurred on the ground. It made no sense to lie about it because a lie is 1000x worse than what would have been covered up by the lie.
Anyway, leaping to the conclusion that the attack had to do with protests over the video was pretty natural. There were protests in Cairo the same day which resulted in the embassy being attacked there. Without further information, I would definitely have assumed the same thing.
I've seen conflicting reports about what this or that person in the intelligence community says we "knew" or didn't "know." The fact is, we never "know" anything. We have evidence which points one way or the other. But the government is a vast bureaucracy with numerous moving parts. It is quite common to get things wrong with any early reporting. The press does it all the time, and so does the government, accidentally. Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
I'm sure none of this will change your mind. I'm also equally certain that your conclusions would be entirely different if this was a republican administration. My own would be exactly the same.
You're assuming that I consider this a scandal; I do not. I consider this politics as usual. Somebody made a bad decision. Maybe that's Obama; probably it's Hilary Clinton or someone lower in State. At the time, I'm sure they had a reason to take that risk, but it turned out to be a bad decision. You win some and you lose some, and sometimes when you take a risk, people die. As far as cost-benefit for the lie, there is no cost. The same people bashing Obama over Benghazi would be bashing him for something else, the press will accept almost anything he tells them (with the exception of Fox News and the few right wing outlets which are going to be criticizing him anyway), his supporters will support him in anything, and the majority of the undecided are probably either too stupid to even notice or smart enough to realize that (A) the President probably doesn't personally decide to remove the Marines from the mission and (B) if the President did personally decide to remove the Marines from the mission he probably had a reason he thought worth the risk at the time. (And if they eventually decide against him, election's over and he can't run again.)
As to the benefit, the Presidency and Congress were on the line. The risk isn't whether Obama did anything wrong, but whether Team Romney could convince a significant number of voters that Obama did something wrong. Just as Obama's lie only had to hold up two months, so Romney's charges only had to hold up two months.
Wolf, you're accusing me of petty partisan politics on this and on Fast and Furious. I don't think that charge is warranted. On Benghazi I recognize that Team Obama lied, I recognize that Team Bush or Team Romney would have done exactly the same, I am scandalized by neither the lie nor the underlying decision, and I've given the government the benefit of the doubt by assuming that removing Marine and CIA security was done for a reason the deciders considered worth the risk at the time, even while acknowledging that due to the nature of the reason I may never learn it. On Fast and Furious I vocally supported Obama and Holder right up until Obama declared the entire government was his private lawyer and therefore off-limits, effectively owning the operation, because it seemed to me this was exactly the kind of rogue operation the BATFE would undertake on its own, without authorization. Granted, we do have a difference of opinion on the severity; I'm willing to give Obama a pass on a one-time strike where four Americans were killed, but not an ongoing, months long operation intentionally arming drug cartels and killing two Americans and hundreds of Mexicans. We'll have to agree to disagree on whether that is an issue, but to those of us who believe it IS a big deal, Obama had to decide whether to cover it up or dig it out. He chose the former, so whether he was part of the operation from the first he decided to support the people who intentionally armed drug cartels as an argument for disarming the law-abiding American public.
Meanwhile you've been all Obama, all the time, on both issues, with never a bobble. And I'M the partisan here? I think not.