Obama falling hard

[nageov3t]

I feel like the Obama camp (and liberal blogs in general) are making a mistake by focusing so much on Palin.

Obama's elevated her to the presidency, but voters are going to go the polls in November to vote for McCain or Obama. the attacks on Palin my prove to be ineffectual.

and speaking of the attacks on Palin... it's just too much, too fast. there's so much crap being thrown and so much of it is pure BS, it all starts to get painted with the same brush and people are just tuning it all out instead of focusing on one or two real issues.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: RY62

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ , has McCain leading in the electoral vote 272 - 266. Pretty much all of the polls show Obama in decline and I don't think this is just a convention bounce.

Gee they came around to what I had back in June, imagine that.

Daves Map 6-11-08 McCain 272 Obaba 266

Oh, so Hawaii turned red again? And Ohio blue? And New Hampshire red? Dave, all you do is make a ton of wild predictions based on near total ignorance. (Where's our 5 dollar gas?) It's still two months until the election... think how things were in the campaign 2 months ago and think now.

Now do you see why your self righteous prediction is stupid? All you are is a leftist version of ProfJohn. All the same ignorance, just different ideology.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: loki8481
I feel like the Obama camp (and liberal blogs in general) are making a mistake by focusing so much on Palin.

Obama's elevated her to the presidency, but voters are going to go the polls in November to vote for McCain or Obama. the attacks on Palin my prove to be ineffectual.

and speaking of the attacks on Palin... it's just too much, too fast. there's so much crap being thrown and so much of it is pure BS, it all starts to get painted with the same brush and people are just tuning it all out instead of focusing on one or two real issues.

I agree with you for a change.

IT's not even about McCain, it's about Bush really.

 

[theeedude]

I think McCain is going too sleazy too early. This kind of outrageous campaigning is generally reserved for last minute ads, but I think he will reap the whirlwind before the election.

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

Interesting. Proof?
Generally high density urban areas dont strike me as "high IQ". Additionally, most blue states swing blue due to the urban areas. Even i8n blue states the country side still generalyl votes red.

Let me make a "stupid liberal" type comment.
Strange. All those dumb liberals voting for more "free money". Figures the stupid and lazy would vote for those who give them money.

Hey, these stupid comments are kinda fun......

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

Interesting. Proof?
Generally high density urban areas dont strike me as "high IQ". Additionally, most blue states swing blue due to the urban areas. Even i8n blue states the country side still generalyl votes red.

Let me make a "stupid liberal" type comment.
Strange. All those dumb liberals voting for more "free money". Figures the stupid and lazy would vote for those who give them money.

Hey, these stupid comments are kinda fun......

I like how you equate high iq with stupidity

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

McCain might be blowing his load way too early.

Obama and Biden are sort of laying low, not really doing much of anything for now. They are probably hoping the Palin bump will simmer down when she starts doing real interviews, and by the looks of the Gibson one it seems like that would be the right thing to do. Wait for the debates, hit them out of the park, then go full steam ahead with everything.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, this is Obama's race to lose.

 

[theeedude]

I think they are letting McCain dump out all this garbage before they use it to expose him as a sleazy lying politician that he is.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

Interesting. Proof?
Generally high density urban areas dont strike me as "high IQ". Additionally, most blue states swing blue due to the urban areas. Even i8n blue states the country side still generalyl votes red.

Let me make a "stupid liberal" type comment.
Strange. All those dumb liberals voting for more "free money". Figures the stupid and lazy would vote for those who give them money.

Hey, these stupid comments are kinda fun......

the two most educated counties in my state are also the most liberal. Completely meaningless though.

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

Interesting. Proof?
Generally high density urban areas dont strike me as "high IQ". Additionally, most blue states swing blue due to the urban areas. Even i8n blue states the country side still generalyl votes red.

Let me make a "stupid liberal" type comment.
Strange. All those dumb liberals voting for more "free money". Figures the stupid and lazy would vote for those who give them money.

Hey, these stupid comments are kinda fun......

I like how you equate high iq with stupidity

I equate nothing to nothing. I also know its entirely stupid and ridiculous to say any one state is, as a whole, smarter or stupider then another based on how they vote.

I would expect these types of statements from rabid liberals however, they are unable to think clearly and tend to think of themselves as somehow "above average" compared to those around them.

 

[sportage]

Hey... The debates have not even started yet.
So far, Mccain has totally avoided issues and real discussion.
This WiLL end during the first debates.

I also predict that most women voters now flocking to Palin, will
come to their senses and return to Obama.

The Obama/Biden ticket will be up by 8 points, by the last debate.
Actually, I like Obama as the underdog. His best always comes out.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

Generalize much? Get back in your Prius, obamabot, quick!

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: sportage
Hey... The debates have not even started yet.
So far, Mccain has totally avoided issues and real discussion.
This WiLL end during the first debates.

I also predict that most women voters now flocking to Palin, will
come to their senses and return to Obama.

The Obama/Biden ticket will be up by 8 points, by the last debate.
Actually, I like Obama as the underdog. His best always comes out.

McCain, right or wrong, will have answers. Obamessiah will have uh's and the Left, who does not care about any real answers, will love him for it.

 

[Double Trouble]

This is getting interesting for sure. All the talk of McCain having a significant lead is premature. I also think those who say things like "just give it time, the people will see Palin and come to their senses" and that kind of stuff are simply naive and fall into the trap most people interested in politics fall into: they think everyone else cares about all the details like they do. That's simply not the case. I'd venture to guess that 90% of Americans have never heard of Troopergate, and will never care about it either. It's the poli-junkies like us that follow this stuff closely that know, but it just doesn't register on the general voter scale.

Obama has allowed the Palin pick to get him off balance and off-message. The lefties went into a complete crazy frenzy trying to smear her as much as possible, but in doing so probably made her even stronger, as the focus was on her instead of on their candidate's message..... Now he's on the defensive, and that's not his strength.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: loki8481
I feel like the Obama camp (and liberal blogs in general) are making a mistake by focusing so much on Palin.

Obama's elevated her to the presidency, but voters are going to go the polls in November to vote for McCain or Obama. the attacks on Palin my prove to be ineffectual.

and speaking of the attacks on Palin... it's just too much, too fast. there's so much crap being thrown and so much of it is pure BS, it all starts to get painted with the same brush and people are just tuning it all out instead of focusing on one or two real issues.

This is true. When Obama, as Presidential candidate, runs against Governor palin, the VP candidate, it diminishes who he is and elevates her.

Giving publicity to the liberal blogs and having undecided voters visit them can't be good for Obama. The people posting on places like HuffPo and KOS are just crazy right now. Who'd want to be in the same group with those nuts?

So much BS trash has been thrown at Governor Palin that, if anything real comes out, noone will believe it anyway.

 

[Specop 007]

Yep, the worst thing that could have happened to Palin was if the Left did nothing. Just ignore her and go on with a "so what" attitude.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Other than hit them on the economy and to tie them to Bush there's not much they can do. Guess the nation could be renamed to Jesusland after McCain and Palin win.

I think the tie to Bush thing is a waste of time. It plays good with the left but the indies aren't buying it. I thought the economy would be good but they haven't really found an effective way of using that issue.

Playing experience was a stupid tactic considering what little Obama has. Negative attacks go against everything Obama has run on. The only thing I've got is face to face town hall debates with real questions from real voters. May the best candidate win.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Other than hit them on the economy and to tie them to Bush there's not much they can do. Guess the nation could be renamed to Jesusland after McCain and Palin win.

I think the tie to Bush thing is a waste of time. It plays good with the left but the indies aren't buying it. I thought the economy would be good but they haven't really found an effective way of using that issue.

Tying him to Bush is a good idea; after all, he's running as the candidate for the party that just gave the American people the worst president in American history. To hit McCain on the economy I suggest using class warfare. He needs to paint himself as the candidate for the American middle class and McCain as the candidate for the wealthy who want to eradicate the middle class.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

I see it the other way.. that McCain needs a 2-3% advantage to win. Obama's machine is going to be more effective in getting out votes I think. Either way, if you're right or I am, I think this thing is still a toss-up and anyone who tries to predict the outcome with certainty is a partisan hack.

I agree this will be an interesting election, to say the least, and there's no way to predict, with certainty, the outcome.

I seem to remember that Obama polled a bit higher than he performed in most of the primaries, at least the later ones. The Bradley effect may well come into play. We don't have any history in a presidential election to predict that one. There may even be a big October surprise or two in store.

I don't think either candidate will breathe easy until it's over.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, because you actually care about what will help Obama's campaign and aren't just another wingnut hack spreading FUD about McCain's post-convention bounce. :roll:

Don't you think the bounce effect should be over by now? The o bounce didn't last nearly this long.

I don't care to help the O camp but I do like to play amateur Karl Rove from time to time.

Yes, we know you're a FUD spreading troll, like when you pretending to be a Hillary supporter.

Personally, I think Obama should go on the offensive, and expose McCain and his supporters (like you) for the lying scum that he (they) truly are.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Other than hit them on the economy and to tie them to Bush there's not much they can do. Guess the nation could be renamed to Jesusland after McCain and Palin win.

I think the tie to Bush thing is a waste of time. It plays good with the left but the indies aren't buying it. I thought the economy would be good but they haven't really found an effective way of using that issue.

Tying him to Bush is a good idea; after all, he's running as the candidate for the party that just gave the American people the worst president in American history. To hit McCain on the economy I suggest using class warfare. He needs to paint himself as the candidate for the American middle class and McCain as the candidate for the wealthy who want to eradicate the middle class.

Connecting him to Bush would be a good idea IF you could convince the voters that matter right now. I don't think they can. The class warfare tactic is being negated by Governor Palin. She is the candidate that appeals most to the middle class.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, because you actually care about what will help Obama's campaign and aren't just another wingnut hack spreading FUD about McCain's post-convention bounce. :roll:

Don't you think the bounce effect should be over by now? The o bounce didn't last nearly this long.

I don't care to help the O camp but I do like to play amateur Karl Rove from time to time.

Yes, we know you're a FUD spreading troll, like when you pretending to be a Hillary supporter.

Personally, I think Obama should go on the offensive, and expose McCain and his supporters (like you) for the lying scum that he (they) truly are.

Hopefully, we'll both be here as I support Senator Clinton's run in 2012.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: RY62Connecting him to Bush would be a good idea IF you could convince the voters that matter right now. I don't think they can. The class warfare tactic is being negated by Governor Palin. She is the candidate that appeals most to the middle class.

Do you think she appeals to the middle class for economic reasons or for religious reasons? I'm guessing it's the latter. How the Republicans appeal to the middle class at all at this point, I have no idea.

 

[winnar111]

Obama, Biden, and company have still refused to distance themselves from the Codepink Michael Moore crowd and other radical organizations that did not exist when Clinton ran in 1992.


1 year ago:

"I introduced the plan in January to remove all of our combat brigades out of Iraq by next March. And I am here to say that we have to begin to end this war now ? not tomorrow, not the next day, not six months from now, but now.?
?Barack Obama, September 12 2007

?It?s time to turn the corner in my view, gentlemen. We should stop the surge and start bringing our troops home. We should end a political strategy in Iraq that cannot succeed and begin one that can.?
?Joe Biden, September 11 2007

And of course, the Betray Us ad sponsored by Obama's primary backers:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iKcZ...1600-h/betrayus+ad.JPG


Hopefully McCain points this out tomorrow.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I'm sure Obama will be fine. The one area where McCain is weak is in the debates. His voice is flat and listless and he comes across as rather boring to most folk. This is why Palin has had such impact on his campaign, she is every bit his opposite when it comes to articulating the Republican talking points.

In the debates, McCain won't be able to hide behind Palin. And Palin will be left on her own to answer tough questions without a teleprompter. We've already seen her make a few gaffes, when the media really starts hitting her hard the luster and shine will wear down a little. After all, the McCain camp is running on the theme that they will keep us safer than the Democrats. Her inexperience in this area will only undermine him.

So I predict that this bump will subside and after all of the debates are over the Obama/Biden ticket will have leads in the battleground states that matter. Remember, if Obama can take NM and CO this race is pretty much locked up for him.