Obama falling hard

[winnar111]

People don't typically watch the VP debates.

The Democrats made a mistake not nominating Hillary, who would have 350 or so electoral votes.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Farang
Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

I think you are dreaming.
link
Of the last 9 polls McCain is leading in 6 of them, Obama is leading in 1 and they are tied in 2.

Prior to Sept 1 Obama was leading in nearly EVERY poll.
For the entire month of August McCain led in only 4 of them.

You can try to deflect this change by talking about 'statistical dead heat' but you are foolish if you are trying to deny that McCain is clearing in the drivers seat as of today.

He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Another fuckin idiot posting. 538 had mccain winning immediately before the dem convention too.

And ras mussen shows obama ahead, gallup is mccain plus 4, the research 2000 shows obama up 2 nationally and Obama is still winning the state by state battles.

I know how you feel. I went through the same feelings when Senator Clinton was on her way out. Don't worry, you'll get through this.

I get the feeling from you that this is one of the first presidential elections you have paid close attention to. The RNC was just about a week ago. The conventions were spaced extremely closely together here, and Obama's convention bounce was largely overridden by McCain's VP pick/convention. While Obama's bounce might have been abnormally short due to scheduling, McCain's has not been anything special.

Your feeling is wrong. I've been watching the Republicans rise up after the conventions for a long time. Clinton was the only exception since I've been watching.

This is more than just a bounce. To dismiss it as such wouldn't be a wise move for O.

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

 

[sierrita]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: OrByte
stop the bleeding?

simple answer: Let Palin speak.

The media has been incredibly gracious to allow Palin to sit safe in her hunters nest and snipe away at Obama for the past two weeks. Basically serving the democratic ticket up to her on a silver platter...and letting the American Audience enjoy listening to her (stump speech) pummel without challenge.

Once she starts talking to the media then she gets to come right down from her perch and sling the mud and play both offense and defense like the rest of them.

McCain has a sad campaign if it rests on hope that the Republican VP will do well in interviews and the one debate.

You see how it works both ways?

Seriously, have you never experienced a presidential election before?

You seem totally oblivious and/or naive to the process.

 

[badnewcastle]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

I've heard parts of the interview tonight. He is not lobbing soft balls at her. But she is resilient in her answers.

What I noticed:

People that like her for what they have seen and heard so far, will still like her. For those that don't like her for what they have seen and heard, they still won't. She made Gibson look like an idiot.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: OrByte
stop the bleeding?

simple answer: Let Palin speak.

The media has been incredibly gracious to allow Palin to sit safe in her hunters nest and snipe away at Obama for the past two weeks. Basically serving the democratic ticket up to her on a silver platter...and letting the American Audience enjoy listening to her (stump speech) pummel without challenge.

Once she starts talking to the media then she gets to come right down from her perch and sling the mud and play both offense and defense like the rest of them.

Obama has a sad campaign if it rests on hope that the Republican VP will do poorly in interviews and the one debate.

Obama's message hasn't changed. And it shouldn't have to.

Ehh, I think you will begin to see my point after she starts interacting with the media.

Let me try and frame it a different way. Its not about what Palin isn't saying, its about all the imaginary things that everyone thinks she WILL say. And once she is brought back down from that pedestal..she will be just another politician playing offense and defense like Obama and McCain.

Right now it is all Offense coming out of her mouth. She doesnt have to defend her positions, her history, her "executive experience" She doesn't have to do any of the "vetting" that Obama and McCain had to do for the past 2 years.

She will get scuffed up.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: RY62

Your feeling is wrong. I've been watching the Republicans rise up after the conventions for a long time. Clinton was the only exception since I've been watching.

This is more than just a bounce. To dismiss it as such wouldn't be a wise move for O.

Gore was also the exception, as he began closing the gap after his convention. I imagine you're thinking Bush I after Dukakis and Bush 2 against Kerry. I've been watching elections for a long time, and I have a degree in political science. It doesn't by any means make my predictions anywhere close to accurate, but it does give me the historical knowledge to know when people make too much out of things with too little information.

Like right now.

 

[Balt]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

 

[Lemon law]

Even as a partisan democrat, I have to admit McCain may have hit a home run with the Palin pick. While McCain did win the GOP nomination by appealing to the rational voters of the GOP, McCain never appealed to the red raw meat GOP voter. And now Palin repairs that emotional appeal, as the GOP base is now charged up like they were not before.

As OrByte points out, can that Palin emotional appeal survive both on going GWB stupidity and the various reality checks?

Time will tell.

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

It's not really a theory, its been shown time and time again on election day.

The composition of the Democratic primary is different than the composition of the electorate.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

I see it the other way.. that McCain needs a 2-3% advantage to win. Obama's machine is going to be more effective in getting out votes I think. Either way, if you're right or I am, I think this thing is still a toss-up and anyone who tries to predict the outcome with certainty is a partisan hack.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

McCain has to have a substantial lead in key battle ground states to win this election. THat's the sad truth for him. His campaign knows this which is why MCCAIN IS RUNNING THE DESPERATION CAMPAIGN, not obama.

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: badnewcastle

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

I've heard parts of the interview tonight. He is not lobbing soft balls at her. But she is resilient in her answers.

What I noticed:

People that like her for what they have seen and heard so far, will still like her. For those that don't like her for what they have seen and heard, they still won't. She made Gibson look like an idiot.

I am in agreement here. I think this first interview will be a homerun for Palin. Hell she has had 2 weeks to prep for it.

The bad news for Obama is she will push forward in her (and McCain's) popularity.

The goodnews is this SHOULD open up the doors for more media interaction. Unless McCain's camp puts her back in her 'Caribou Barbie' box and seals it up.

As voters we should be on the look out for McCain's next couple of moves going into this weekend. Anyone have any idea where Palin is going to be?

 

[Stoneburner]

NATE at 538 confirms the suspicion tha McCain's bouncing mainly in states he didn't need to bounce in.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com.../todays-polls-911.html

Obama has endured in the battle ground states because he's a frickin ruthlessly efficient bastard. People who are missing this are political neophyes or those buying into the media narrative.

IT must also be stressed, THIS IS DURING MCCAIN's BOUNCE. When the bounce recedes even slightly, it'll be a different picture.

 

[Throckmorton]

Screw the high road. We can't afford to let Palin tell her lies, and she's full of them.

 

[mshan]

"At least one eminent economist believes that the Bread and Peace model understates the electoral importance of Iraq. In a paper published in 2005, William Nordhaus, a colleague of Fair's at Yale, argues that the Iraq war almost cost Bush the 2004 election. Given the healthy state of the economy that year and the fact that he was an incumbent, Bush should have defeated John Kerry by about 15 percentage points. But his actual margin of victory was just 3 percent. If this logic holds up in 2008, the Democrats should win comfortably."

Ignore the noise!!!

Ultimately, economics >> war on terror > Palin (who is nothing more than a surrogate for wedge issues this year, getting you to react viscerally, rather than think about the issues)

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Last I checked there was 50+ days before the election.

We haven't even gotten started boys. Put your party hats away.

If there is something that I've learned watching politics it's that NOBODY really knows WTF they are talking about. There are so many factors and variables that change from election to election, it's useless to predict much of anything. What I can say about this election is that it now appears to be competitive. McCain has succeeded in that. Good for him.

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: Throckmorton
Screw the high road. We can't afford to let Palin tell her lies, and she's full of them.

actually, I will quote an article I read earlier today about Obama's approach to going on the offensive against McCain:

Obama remembers, to recall the old adage, it's not worth wrestling a pig: You get dirty, and the pig likes it.

 

[TheSlamma]

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: RY62
Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ,

That's strange.. all the high IQ states are going for Obama while all the pork eating, gun slinging inbred's are going for McCain. Weird!

wasn't that disproved after 2004?

 

[Lemon law]

Palin, Potious Pilot, and Pig all start with P. With reasoning like that we all get no where fast. Its still a were you better or worse off than when GWB became President? And while that question is a slam dunk no, we now must ask is McCain Palin than better than Obama Biden?

Image may be one thing, delivering the future American Bacon is another thing.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Other than hit them on the economy and to tie them to Bush there's not much they can do. Guess the nation could be renamed to Jesusland after McCain and Palin win.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: RY62

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ , has McCain leading in the electoral vote 272 - 266. Pretty much all of the polls show Obama in decline and I don't think this is just a convention bounce.

Gee they came around to what I had back in June, imagine that.

Daves Map 6-11-08 McCain 272 Obaba 266