Brasscat,
But my real (and serious) question is to Wolfgang...
REAL Q: "Why are you defending CEO-Shawn/Cyberwings? Do you really think he is a victim of circumstance? Do you really think he doesn't have cash-flow problems? Do you really think he's going to be around in 6 months. And finally, if you think he'll be around in six months, WHY? What evidence of Shawn's business acumen/strategy/etc do you believe in?"
Wolfgang, I'm not attacking you, believe me. I really want to know what you're thinking -- 'cause maybe I'm seeing this all wrong.
Thank you for your thoughtful and polite response!! Either of those things is rare--the combination is a real treat.
To be quick about it: (1) Yes, I think Shawn and CW are in large part victim of circumstances (sudden, recurring, bizarre tech problems), but that's not saying he/it handled the situation the best way--time will tell (did the problems really have to spiral out of control like this??). (2) I don't think he has serious cash flow problems now, though I don't think he wants to pay LS a single penny ever again. (3) Yes, he and CW will be around in 6 months, I think. (Not claiming certainty here--but this is my opinion, and others who have known Shawn far longer are more confident.) This is
not so much because of brilliant business acumen--that is a work in progress, I believe, and the progress doesn't seem as rapid as one would wish, based on the recent track record--but because of his willingness to sink in a lot of cash to keep it going until the problems get resolved and things become operationally stable and eventually profitable. (Check out the new monthly prices, e.g.--still very aggressive, but also more reasonable. A big step forward, IMHO.) Shawn is
not the brightest star in the galaxy; but intellect is only one component in success, and he's certainly no dullard either.
Really, I'm thinking about the same thing I was thinking 5 1/2 days ago, though actually more optimistically than at
that precise point, which was my moment of greatest doubt about CW (though this excerpt below won't make that clear). Yes, Shawn is in part of a victim of circumstance--I think he means well, and he can do well, but he's gotten some very bad luck AND (to be blunt) his mouth gets him into trouble via hype and impulsiveness (hype is often harmless during good times, but really backfires during bad).
And it
may be that LS was right all along that all the tech problems leading to the suspension of payments and talk of moving was CW's fault entirely--though that's not the way it seems right now. A number of people traced the recurring, show-stopping problems to LS's routers, before the packets even hit CW servers; but obviously, LS didn't and doesn't think it's at all at fault, and I'm neither expert nor knowledgable enough to resolve that.
This, BTW, seems to me the greatest conceivable weakness in CW's case: it's very conceivable that it was wrong and LS right about the tech issues, thereby rendering CW's cancellation of the contract objectively unjustified, even if still in good faith (i.e., CW didn't know it was unjustified). I think if CW's critics were thiking more clearly,
that is what they'd be harping on. And I imagine they will, after this post spells it out for them. (With a suitable delay to avoid looking obvious.) But right or wrong, that may be water under the bridge, especially since CW will plow ahead even with LS in control of its Maine servers and their data.
But here's exactly what I wrote 5 1/2 days ago, explaining this to MontyBurns (back when I thought it was worth trying). Not much has changed in that time (for worse or for better). (BTW, I hope and presume that my frequent cautions are as obvious to you as they are hidden to most. It's a strange thing when one feels one is writing clearly, yet others thoroughly and effortlessly misconstrue it.)
I have three controversial premises: (1) Shawn is basically honest, in just the sense that it's not his character to just flat out lie to people. According to some who have known him a lot longer than I, he is impulsive and hyperbolic (and too often takes attacks on CW personally, and one man's salesmanlike hyperbole is another man's total BS), but NOT a con man. (There's another sense of "trustworthy" meaning something like "reliable and competent"--that's at best unclear right now.) (2) CW did indeed deliver the goods very well up until this last month, up until the last 2 weeks, basically. (3) Shawn has said that he's already put around $120k in to CW, and is willing to put in more in the near future. He's said repeatedly that CW has some problems right now, but cash flow isn't one of them. MAYBE this is just a flat-out lie, despite (1); but MAYBE it's not, too.
Granting these three premises, the third of which obviously seems the most dangerous, and also assuming the technical problems will be corrected in the move to the new DC in northern VA (whenever such a move happens--the fact that it hasn't already, with (and this disturbs me) no explanation, lends some credibility to the note allegedly from a LS employee saying that LS would not let CW move until LS gets what it thinks it's owed financially), then CW will be operationally back on its feet in a week or two.
If it can offer service as it was before, before the fiasco between it and lightship, and at something even approaching its current prices (Shawn has said they will rise, but how much is to be determined), then there's an opportunity for a lot of people to get HQ (then, not now :^I) web hosting cheap--and that's a very good thing. Again, IF and ONLY IF, LS-like fiascos can be avoided in the future--not to mention resolved now!
Nothing magic--just the beauty of the free market as assisted by significant cash infusions and large amounts of enthusiasm (which can be worth a lot of time and money), and perhaps a resulting large scale of operation. That combination is the only thing that might offer excitement here.
And obviously ONLY TIME WILL TELL. To repeat, there ARE, I realize, obvious grounds for pessimism--take the whole last 10 terrible days, the ongoing poor communication, the "back up soon" but never today, etc.
But I (unlike others here) think there are also some grounds for optimism.