Wondering, how much do you trust the official # from around the world? To me I can mostly trust Canada/US/Aussie/NZ/EU(union)/UK/Singa/Taiwan/Jap/SK, the rest are crap shot. Like how can India go from 400k to 40k in a matter of couple weeks? Africa/Brazil/Peru/Mexico/South Asia/China/Russia/East EU likely way under report.
India certainly can drop in a matter of a few weeks. Covid appears to have a 2 to 3 month cycle. Click on just about any graph of almost any country or any state and you'll see it peaks and then plunges in 2 to 3 months.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technolo...-two-month-peak-and-decline-cycle-identified/
I tend to go by numbers, rather than feelings. Yes, numbers can be easily manipulated. But doing manipulations in a way that is hard to spot is difficult. For example, lets look at outliers in death rate (
confirmed deaths per
confirmed infected). The outliers that are too high (>4% of cases end up in deaths--I chose this cutoff since it is about double the average reported rate) are in order:
- Vanuatu (25.0%), Yemen, Peru, Mexico, Sudan, Syria, Ecuador, Egypt, Somalia, Taiwan, China, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liberia, and Bulgaria (4.1%).
- These countries may very well be under-reporting the confirmed infections.
Outliers that are too low (<0.3% death rate--I chose this since there is a big cliff in death rates after that point) are:
- Bhutan (0.1%), Laos (0.1%), and Singapore (0.1%).
I also don't trust when the confirmed death rates don't correlate to the confirmed infection rate (14 days earlier). Those countries include at least:
- Guatemala, Belarus, Peru, Nicaragua. Nicaragua is the really oddball one that has one official death each week, every week regardless of the confirmed cases.
- Note: I was doing calculations manually and so I didn't try many countries, these ones were just really strong outliers. There are probably more.
Finally, I don't trust areas where the infection rates don't follow any ebb and flow (no 2 to 3 month surge). That would be countries like:
- Brazil, Guatemala, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua.
- Maybe Libya, and Belarus fit that category.
I'm not saying that all the countries above are specifically manipulating the data, but their data just doesn't seem to fit in with any other reported data. For example, Singapore is one on the list that I probably would want to trust, it might be an outlier just because they can limit population travel quite well. Also, countries that I didn't list may be manipulating data (intentionally or not), but their manipulations seem to be similar to everyone else's data. One type of unintentional manipulation would be underreporting of cases early on. We just didn't have the tests available.
But, look at my lists and you'll probably say that it matches your list pretty closely.