NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[K1052]

Many states are starting to show an uptick in new cases. I don't know if this is due to better testing or if these are the first signs of the second wave?

Some of each depending on the state looks like. Hospitalization figures ticking up in a number of places and that's a clearer view of what's going on. Maybe not a wave though but potentially a wavelet.

 

[gill77]

This is such a tricky thing. I have some friends who are anti-vaxxers because they simply don't think things through, but I also have some very intelligent friends who are STEM-type people who are anti-vaxxers because they think things through. One aspect is safety, another is personal freedom to choose. The problem is that if you want to live in a society, you also impose a risk to others through your personal choices, and choosing not to get vaccines means that you expose not just yourself, but also risk getting immune-compromised people sick. I mean, personally I'd love to have a COVID vaccine & get things back to normal as quickly as possible, but I also don't want to be part of a Thalidomide type of situation long-term either:

The Thalidomide Tragedy: Lessons for Drug Safety and Regulation | Helix Magazine

Many children in the 1960's, like the kindergartner pictured above, were born with phocomelia as a side effect of the drug thalidomide, resulting in the shortening or absence of limbs. (Photo by Leonard McCombe//Time Life Pictures/Getty Images)

helix.northwestern.edu

The powers that be are pretty good at making us believe things without directly lying to us. The flu vaccine has been right at 40% effective over the last 15 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

I am not saying that you should not do your part and contribute to the herd immunity, but as an individual, you are accepting 100% of the risk of a vaccine gone bad for the benefit of it probably not protecting you.

Think if we were talking body armor or hard hats. Rated to prevent two out of five injuries. Probably not big sellers.

 

[K1052]

Adds to the growing body of indications that masks could indeed be a rather effective intervention:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270066869110804488

 

[Kaido]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says:

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.

www.cnbc.com

Wait no:

WHO Walks Back Claim That Asymptomatic Coronavirus Transmission Is 'Very Rare'

The World Health Organization held a press conference on Tuesday to clarify a surprising announcement it made a day earlier, in which an epidemiologist said that asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus was “very rare.”

gizmodo.com

 

[Kaido]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says:

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.

www.cnbc.com

Wait no:

WHO Walks Back Claim That Asymptomatic Coronavirus Transmission Is 'Very Rare'

The World Health Organization held a press conference on Tuesday to clarify a surprising announcement it made a day earlier, in which an epidemiologist said that asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus was “very rare.”

gizmodo.com

 

[destrekor]

The powers that be are pretty good at making us believe things without directly lying to us. The flu vaccine has been right at 40% effective over the last 15 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

I am not saying that you should not do your part and contribute to the herd immunity, but as an individual, you are accepting 100% of the risk of a vaccine gone bad for the benefit of it probably not protecting you.

Think if we were talking body armor or hard hats. Rated to prevent two out of five injuries. Probably not big sellers.

Uhhhh
No, I don't think so gill. The wiki seems to be formatted and compiled with a slight nod toward flu vaccine being ineffective.
But, consider this minor detail, quoted from the link provided:

---------------------------
In the case of influenza, effectiveness is expected to be lower than the efficacy because it is measured using the rates of influenza-like illness, which is not always caused by influenza.[6] Influenza vaccines generally show high efficacy, as measured by the antibody production in animal models or vaccinated people.
---------------------------

It's a false measure from the beginning because "effectiveness" is, for some unfathomably brilliant reason I'm sure, comparing the idea of getting a vaccine against influenza with its apparent effectiveness against every fucking pathogen that causes "flu-like symptoms" ???? We're not vaccinating against symptoms lol we're vaccinating against a singular pathogen (or perhaps a few variants of said pathogen).

What a bullshit data point.

 

[gill77]

Uhhhh
No, I don't think so gill. The wiki seems to be formatted and compiled with a slight nod toward flu vaccine being ineffective.
But, consider this minor detail, quoted from the link provided:

---------------------------
In the case of influenza, effectiveness is expected to be lower than the efficacy because it is measured using the rates of influenza-like illness, which is not always caused by influenza.[6] Influenza vaccines generally show high efficacy, as measured by the antibody production in animal models or vaccinated people.
---------------------------

It's a false measure from the beginning because "effectiveness" is, for some unfathomably brilliant reason I'm sure, comparing the idea of getting a vaccine against influenza with its apparent effectiveness against every fucking pathogen that causes "flu-like symptoms" ???? We're not vaccinating against symptoms lol we're vaccinating against a singular pathogen (or perhaps a few variants of said pathogen).

What a bullshit data point.

So a slight nod turns into a bullshit data point, ok.

Let's hear your prediction as to the effectiveness of the vaccine, if and when it is deployed.

We can weigh your parsing of the results that are published and seem to flip flop almost on a daily basis. Hard to see how that can provide better guidance than 15 years of hard data, but you seem to be the expert in non-bullshit data points.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, the effectiveness of the vaccine should perhaps be known within months. If it takes years or decades, it becomes a moot point.

By definition, the only thing we will not know soon is the long term side effects of any vaccine.

 

[K1052]

NIH schedule for Phase 3 trials of several vaccine candidates coming into view:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270686067239370752

 

[Roger Wilco]

NIH schedule for Phase 3 trials of several vaccine candidates coming into view:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270686067239370752

I can't read past the paywall. Once phase 3 is complete, will they start giving the vaccinations to everyone?

 

[K1052]

I can't read past the paywall. Once phase 3 is complete, will they start giving the vaccinations to everyone?

Not everyone at first due to limited supply. People at high risk (healthcare workers, transportation workers, government services, etc) will be first up. Seems possible that 10s of millions could be dosed by year end if one or more proves out relatively quickly. Rest of the country possibly by earlyish 2021.

In the meantime more treatments should come online by the fall that make the virus easier to live with until then.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Not everyone at first due to limited supply. People at high risk (healthcare workers, transportation workers, government services, etc) will be first up. Seems possible that 10s of millions could be dosed by year end if one or more proves out relatively quickly. Rest of the country possibly by earlyish 2021.

In the meantime more treatments should come online by the fall that make the virus easier to live with until then.

Awesome, thanks. Here's hoping all three vaccines make it through clinical trials.

 

[K1052]

J&J plans move into trial significantly ahead of schedule

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270727801889599493

 

[mohit9206]

I can't read past the paywall. Once phase 3 is complete, will they start giving the vaccinations to everyone?

First rich countries, then rich people in developing countries, then middle class, then poor. So middle class and poor will probably have to wait long time before getting vaccine.

 

[nakedfrog]

I'd imagine that has something to do with the loosening of the stay at home orders and the recent protests.

And let's not forget the recent holiday weekend...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Adds to the growing body of indications that masks could indeed be a rather effective intervention:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270066869110804488

Wait, wut? They are using measures of people who potentially got it from a specific hair-cutting brand?

if someone is getting haircuts, they are likely going "out and about" to all kinds of places. How 2-weeks later people can say "It came from the haircut place" is beyond me.

 

[CZroe]

First rich countries, then rich people in developing countries, then middle class, then poor. So middle class and poor will probably have to wait long time before getting vaccine.

Will you take that entitled BS somewhere else? He was merely asking if that's when vaccinations start. His question had nothing to do with your ridiculous politics and was not inviting that response. This is not the thread for it anyway. Thanks.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Will you take that entitled BS somewhere else? He was merely asking if that's when vaccinations start. His question had nothing to do with your ridiculous politics and was not inviting that response. This is not the thread for it anyway. Thanks.

That - and

1. After the ACA - any preventative type of medication is covered. Thus, vaccines (I don't believe?) aren't charged
2. I honestly don't want to be one of the first. I'd rather a first massive sampling pool take it - and then see if any complications or anything occurs - since of all vaccinations, this is going to be quickly rushed out the door.

 

[mohit9206]

Will you take that entitled BS somewhere else? He was merely asking if that's when vaccinations start. His question had nothing to do with your ridiculous politics and was not inviting that response. This is not the thread for it anyway. Thanks.

Sorry i dont understand how its political. Vaccines aren't going to be free and obviously people who have more money will get it first.

 

[PJFrylar]

Wait, wut? They are using measures of people who potentially got it from a specific hair-cutting brand?

if someone is getting haircuts, they are likely going "out and about" to all kinds of places. How 2-weeks later people can say "It came from the haircut place" is beyond me.

That is likely referencing the case where 2 hair stylists worked multiple days at a Great Clips and tested positive for covid. My recollection is that at least one of them was symptomatic during the days worked. They are saying that none of the 140 people that came in contact with them there have subsequently tested positive.

 

[ultimatebob]

And let's not forget the recent holiday weekend...

If that's the reason, just wait. School lets out this week, and people will be traveling all over the place for summer vacations.

That said, school is mostly online right now, so I don't know why you couldn't leave early and have the kids keep up with lessons in the car or hotel room.

 

[K1052]

That is likely referencing the case where 2 hair stylists worked multiple days at a Great Clips and tested positive for covid. My recollection is that at least one of them was symptomatic during the days worked. They are saying that none of the 140 people they came in contact with them there have subsequently tested positive.

Yes, this.

Research out of Cambridge now also pointing in the mask direction.

Widespread mask-wearing could prevent COVID-19 second waves: study


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V

In this study, researchers linked the dynamics of spread between people with population-level models to assess the effect on the disease’s reproduction rate, or R value, of different scenarios of mask adoption combined with periods of lockdown.

The R value measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass the disease on to. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth.

The study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing the R value than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear.

In all scenarios the study looked at, routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0, flattening future disease waves and allowing for less stringent lockdowns

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

That is likely referencing the case where 2 hair stylists worked multiple days at a Great Clips and tested positive for covid. My recollection is that at least one of them was symptomatic during the days worked. They are saying that none of the 140 people that came in contact with them there have subsequently tested positive.

Ahhh thanks - that makes more sense... When it said "140+ Great Clips Exposures" I thought they were referring to 140 locations that had exposure to people.

 

[allisolm]

edit: .PJFrylar best me to it.

I think it's fairly convincing anecdotal evidence for the efficacy of masks.

 

[CZroe]

Sorry i dont understand how its political. Vaccines aren't going to be free and obviously people who have more money will get it first.

Yes, obviously.

...but bemoaning class economics is political for a question about what other steps remain before a vaccine release (whether for rich or poor). For all we know he could be upper-class and ready to pay top dollar for it which would ultimately accelerate roll-out to the poor and middle class.

 

[nakedfrog]

If that's the reason, just wait. School lets out this week, and people will be traveling all over the place for summer vacations.

That said, school is mostly online right now, so I don't know why you couldn't leave early and have the kids keep up with lessons in the car or hotel room.

School gets out before Memorial Day here.
I guess the people travelling will deserve whatever they get, but it will suck if they spread it to places that have lower infection rates.

 

[thestrangebrew1]

I'm getting tested at 130pm pst today. No real symptoms, but I've had a cough since Jan. due to almonds blooming. Seems to have gotten a little worse since I returned to work, and I actually stopped taking allergy meds since I've returned, so I'm about 98% sure it's just that. More curious than anything. We'll see how it goes.