NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[[DHT]Osiris]

So it's obvious that it's a good bet that virus mortality rate for general population is around 0.5-1%, not 5.8%.

It's obvious? Is that based on your extensive experience as an epidemiologist?

We know of one number, the currently tested. Positing on untested positives isn't useful at this point, nor was it the point the poster was making in the comment that started this 'conversation'.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's obvious? Is that based on your extensive experience as an epidemiologist?

We know of one number, the currently tested. Positing on untested positives isn't useful at this point, nor was it the point the poster was making in the comment that started this 'conversation'.

Man - If only we could test things and estimate things based on present factual data.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Man - If only we could test things and estimate things based on present factual data.

The most idiotic thing about the arguments that you and I guess Maxima were making is that it doesn't invalidate the 'ackchewally' poster from the damn picture. He was just pointing out that the two events were closer in fatality rates than most people realize.

So what exactly was the fucking point of even countering it to begin with, other than to edumacate us simple internet users?

 

[Maxima1]

The most idiotic thing about the arguments that you and I guess Maxima were making is that it doesn't invalidate the 'ackchewally' poster from the damn picture.

I didn't make any comment about that. I responded to your post suggesting that 5.8% was our best estimate. I went back to check what you were referring to, and it's clear someonesmind also was just pointing out that number is misleading.

It's obvious? Is that based on your extensive experience as an epidemiologist?

We know of one number, the currently tested. Positing on untested positives isn't useful at this point, nor was it the point the poster was making in the comment that started this 'conversation'.

COVID-19: Study reports 'staggering' death rate in U.S. among those infected who show symptoms

A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

www.sciencedaily.com

A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I didn't make any comment about that. I responded to your post suggesting that 5.8% was our best estimate. I went back to check what you were referring to, and it's clear someonesmind also was just pointing out that number is misleading.

COVID-19: Study reports 'staggering' death rate in U.S. among those infected who show symptoms

A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

www.sciencedaily.com

A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455

Source for that information. Worth noting that the data they were using was up-to-date as of 20APR. That data will need to be revised.

 

[pmv]

Obviously that "+ x" is huge. Many that have had mild symptoms or no symptoms at all weren't tested. So it's obvious that it's a good bet that virus mortality rate for general population is around 0.5-1%, not 5.8%.

Hardly 'obvious' that the case fatality rate is 0.5%. Way more likely to be 1% or 1.5% or even 2%.
You seem to be massively overestimating the size of that "x", (because you _want_ it to be large?).

Where it's been estimated by actual random testing, it's been nothing like the level you seem to have plucked out of nowhere.

In Stockholm, for example, where they've been constantly expressing the hope that the absence of a lockdown means they are reaching 'herd immunity' (i.e. 60% infection rate) that random testing shows the infection rate is more like 2.5%.

Random Stockholm testing show 2.5% infected, despite hundred...

BAD news for the idea that the virus has already sweeped through our populations and created widespread immunity (if that is possible.) Random testing...

www.peakprosperity.com

NYC random testing produced similar figures.

You are also ignoring all the deaths that haven't been counted, which means the numerator is larger than you are assuming - check the divergence between the official covid19 deaths and the increase over historical average death rates for the UK in the graph on this link:

Excess UK deaths in Covid-19 outbreak approach 60,000

Data shows Britain has one of world’s highest rates of coronavirus deaths per capita

www.theguardian.com

DHTOsiris is indeed erring in the direction of overestimating the case fatality rate but you are erring the other way. (I think I've had this argument in both directions several times now.)

 

[herm0016]

hey dumb dumbs. its not tested over dead. that number means nothing. recovered + dead / dead is a real statistic. you have no idea what the outcome of a tested person is until they are dead or recovered, only at that time can you claim to know which number to include them in.


and most scientests seem to agree... that the rate is around 1 to 2 %

 

[Maxima1]

Hardly 'obvious' that the case fatality rate is 0.5%. Way more likely to be 1% or 1.5% or even 2%.
You seem to be massively overestimating the size of that "x", (because you _want_ it to be large?).

I said 0.5-1%. Did you just want to be argumentative?

Where it's been estimated by actual random testing, it's been nothing like the level you seem to have plucked out of nowhere.

I just posted a study that gave 1.3% for US fatality rate for those with symptoms. Adding without symptoms, it would go below 1%.

You are also ignoring all the deaths that haven't been counted, which means the numerator is larger than you are assuming - check the divergence between the official covid19 deaths and the increase over historical average death rates for the UK in the graph on this link:

Even if we assume ~20%, it isn't going to be drastically different.

 

[CZroe]

Cruise ship demographics skew older this they skew towards the more vulnerable. Then again, they also skew towards first-world people who are also less vulnerable due to access to medical care. Hard to extrapolate to an entire population, either way.

 

[manly]

COVID has a mortality of 5.8%


facepalm.jpg.

Math is fucking hard yo'.


People just grab numbers from nowhere - including from the media and then just indoctrinate themselves into stupidity.

yep, says the dude who a month ago pegged flu CFR at 0.01% and COVID-19 CFR at 0.05% in this thread.

So with all the protests/rioting, shouldn't we see a spike in positive tests?

Fairly likely in a couple weeks, we'll see. It's not like the mostly younger crowd of protesters is a likely demographic for testing even if they come down with some symptoms. Although they will infect others in their communities.

 

[Maxima1]

Excess UK deaths in Covid-19 outbreak approach 60,000

Data shows Britain has one of world’s highest rates of coronavirus deaths per capita

www.theguardian.com

Almost forgot -- isn't the same thing happening in the UK where people are too scared to go to the hospital even if they have heart attack and stroke symptoms?

 

[pmv]

Almost forgot -- isn't the same thing happening in the UK where people are too scared to go to the hospital even if they have heart attack and stroke symptoms?

As I just came out of hospital after urgent surgery, I'm going with 'no'. It's one way to get tested for Corvid19 (and it's not true when they say it will be 'uncomfortable', it hurts - they jam those swabs up there till your eyes water).

It's true that a lot of 'non-urgent' treatment has been postponed or cancelled though. They reckon there will be a big surge in delayed treatments as soon as the lockdown finishes.

 

[rh71]

So anyway, yeah D-day off the ship onto the beach was assumed to be insta-gib. 6% is surprisingly low.

 

[Svnla]

i read it. don't bother with the filter pouch. there is very very very little air moving through it anyway. the cloth mask does it's job, and the square of filter whatever in the pocket is totally useless.

I still like to do the paper"filter" because:

1. It is cheap.
2. It is easy to do.
3. It is like a little bit of "reassuring"

Another reason I like the cloth mask with strings as the picture I posted above is the ability to make adjustment with the tightness of the mask to my face. The masks with the elastic bands do not offer that option.

 

[killster1]

My point? You asked "what expert is saying to use a cloth mask instead of a n95?" and I told you that it goes all the way to the top: All the experts are saying this because they want to conserve genuine N95 masks for frontline workers. Yes, N95 is better but it still isnt available.

The Korean and Chinese masks you mention are certainly not N95 equivalents. The masks I got from online sources and flea markets being sold as KN95 were all WORSE than surgical masks (literally worse). Fabric masks absolutely do have a drastic impact when everyone wears them and the knock-offs absolutely can be worse (and often are worse). Heck, some N95 masks are worse (the one-way vented kind), since they are more effective on an infected person and the bypass valve effectively undermines this.

In sumation:
Wear a mask. Home-made fabric masks according to the guidelines are as as good as any pleated surgical mask. N95 is better but still largely unavailable. You never know what you are getting with Korean and Chinese-spec masks like KN95 and they can sometimes be worse than home-made fabric masks.

My link is chineese masks? Its a fleamarket? Ur smoking crack. Go look at my link again. They used to say cloth masks are OK of course cdc once again changed their mind and don't allow cloth masks in hospitals care homes etc so recheck ur self and my link and then try again! Cloth masks hahahhaha o boy

 

[jpiniero]

Hoping the riots encourage states to reopen so the rioters will be forced to go back to work.

 

[CZroe]

My link is chineese masks? Its a fleamarket? Ur smoking crack. Go look at my link again. They used to say cloth masks are OK of course cdc once again changed their mind and don't allow cloth masks in hospitals care homes etc so recheck ur self and my link and then try again! Cloth masks hahahhaha o boy

Your links are to masks you can't buy... with inappropriate "Exhalation Valves," no less.

I said you were discussing the Chinese and Korean masks because you were. In your conversation with someone else KN95 masks came up and your post mentioned "N95 equivalent" masks. I can link to unobtainium N95 masks too but it doesn't make the others that are available "equivalent."

Where did you get it in your head that the CDC reversed a recommendation for other masks in hospitals? They never recommended cloth masks for hospitals. They've expected frontline workers to wear them all along, even when they were telling the general public not to wear any masks. The only thing that ever changed was their recommendation to the general public regarding wearing masks and they've been recommending cloth masks to the general public since then specifically with the stated goal of maintaining supplies of N95 and better masks for frontline workers and healthcare professionals. I even linked it here:

Yep.

...and even if all of that fails and you get infected or transmit the infection anyway, the resulting infection(s) will have lower viral load with significantly better prospects for the people getting sick (body has time to mount a proper immune response before being overrun and needing to over-react).

Since the Surgeon General didn't explicitly mention that the cloth masks were being recommended over N95 and Killster1 did explicitly ask, here is the CDC mask guidance that does mention both and recommend cloth over N95:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

Granted, if you have N95 masks, use them. Reuse them. Resuse them again. The ones I bought back in January (and mentioned in this thread) are falling apart now but they also have the bypass valve that we now know is undesireable. I have mostly moved on to other masks including some valve-less N95 masks my mother bought after I told her to what was happening to them (she didn't limit herself like I did back when I thought China needed them more).

I still keep my original 2-pack around as a backup but the elastic is really on its last threads (literally).

Click the link. This is their current mask-guidance recommending cloth masks to the general public and only mentioning N95 in reference to maintaining supply for professionals and frontline workers.

Where did you get the idea that the CDC ever recommended cloth masks to health professionals or frontline workers and reversed course on that?

https://imgur.com/eMoEFHf

 

[Kaido]

More than 600 nurses have died from COVID-19

COVID-19 death toll among nurses doubled in past month, says nurses group

More than 600 nurses worldwide are known to have died from COVID-19, which has infected an estimated 450,000 healthcare workers, the International Council of Nurses said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

450,000+ healthcare workers worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus.

 

[killster1]

Your links are to masks you can't buy... with inappropriate "Exhalation Valves," no less.

I said you were discussing the Chinese and Korean masks because you were. In your conversation with someone else KN95 masks came up and your post mentioned "N95 equivalent" masks. I can link to unobtainium N95 masks too but it doesn't make the others that are available "equivalent."

Where did you get it in your head that the CDC reversed a recommendation for other masks in hospitals? They never recommended cloth masks for hospitals. They've expected frontline workers to wear them all along, even when they were telling the general public not to wear any masks. The only thing that ever changed was their recommendation to the general public regarding wearing masks and they've been recommending cloth masks to the general public since then specifically with the stated goal of maintaining supplies of N95 and better masks for frontline workers and healthcare professionals. I even linked it here:



Click the link. This is their current mask-guidance recommending cloth masks to the general public and only mentioning N95 in reference to maintaining supply for professionals and frontline workers.

Where did you get the idea that the CDC ever recommended cloth masks to health professionals or frontline workers and reversed course on that?

https://imgur.com/eMoEFHf

it was not for "heathcare" but that they changed their statement that it helped block the spread of virus to the view of not sure and that it wouldnt be good enough to protect others. So ALL the heathcare nursing homes etc (at least in california) changed their policy on cloth masks after the cdc changed their view. When i clicked the n95's they had them in stock now i guess they are back to out of stock (just looked). So you work at the cdc and memorize all the different things they recommend etc? interesting! guess will need to find a new source for n95 masks and ill try to update when i find another one.

 

[CZroe]

it was not for "heathcare" but that they changed their statement that it helped block the spread of virus to the view of not sure and that it wouldnt be good enough to protect others. So ALL the heathcare nursing homes etc (at least in california) changed their policy on cloth masks after the cdc changed their view. When i clicked the n95's they had them in stock now i guess they are back to out of stock (just looked). So you work at the cdc and memorize all the different things they recommend etc? interesting! guess will need to find a new source for n95 masks and ill try to update when i find another one.

Is this some kind of joke?

My former coworker now works down the street at the CDC but, no, I dont work at the CDC. Pretty hilarious that you would imply I have to work to refute your obviously incorrect statement. The CDC never recommended cloth masks over N95 masks for frontline and health workers. Never. Even when they advised against the public wearing masks they did so while explicitly stating that the N95 masks were needed for frontline and health care workers.

The only change regarding mask policy was that they went from no recommending masks for the general public to recommending cloth masks for the general public. From the start they have advocated for reserving surgical and N95 masks for professionals. This still has not changed.

...and you could not order those masks even when you first shared it. You were operating on the assumption that N95 masks are available to the general public and they were not. You were operating on the assumption that the CDC changed their mask guidance regarding N95 and they have not. The cornerstones of everything you concluded are missing and it seems you don't even want to know.

 

[shortylickens]

A doctor in sweden just admitted they could have done a much better job responding to the virus.
The government has NOT made such an admission.

 

[killster1]

Is this some kind of joke?

My former coworker now works down the street at the CDC but, no, I dont work at the CDC. Pretty hilarious that you would imply I have to work to refute your obviously incorrect statement. The CDC never recommended cloth masks over N95 masks for frontline and health workers. Never. Even when they advised against the public wearing masks they did so while explicitly stating that the N95 masks were needed for frontline and health care workers.

The only change regarding mask policy was that they went from no recommending masks for the general public to recommending cloth masks for the general public. From the start they have advocated for reserving surgical and N95 masks for professionals. This still has not changed.

...and you could not order those masks even when you first shared it. You were operating on the assumption that N95 masks are available to the general public and they were not. You were operating on the assumption that the CDC changed their mask guidance regarding N95 and they have not. The cornerstones of everything you concluded are missing and it seems you don't even want to know.

well shoot maybe my work are liars and just made up the cdc updating its infection control guideline. right?

Oh your former Co worker works at the CDC that makes you a expert, you should have told me that to start HAaaaaaaaaaa


here was the memo at work..
"""""""""Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its infection control guidance regarding COVID-19. Based upon this guidance, XXX is making an important change to its policy regarding the requirements for wearing a face mask.

all team members, when they are in patient care areas or in other areas where there is potential contact with patients, must wear a surgical mask.

This sets a new minimum standard for mask wearing among XXX hospital team members working in these areas.

This change is being made because CDC has determined that cloth face masks are not considered Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) because their capability to protect healthcare personnel is unknown."""" (it goes on and on but i will stop it right there) i also know first hand nursing homes also received new policies regarding cloth masks and didnt allow them. So sure maybe we are all wrong and you are right.. but In my medical opinion cloth masks are a joke!

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

however it does say reviews march 17 which is more than 1 month later then the memo. (but everywhere around here has discontinued use of cloth face masks in may) strange they changed it march 17 i wonder if they consulted you before they did.

 

[CZroe]

well shoot maybe my work are liars and just made up the cdc updating its infection control guideline. right?

Or, more likely, they said the CDC updated it in exactly the way I said they updated it and you are the one who is off base. Pretty clear that's the case.

Oh your former Co worker works at the CDC that makes you a expert, you should have told me that to start HAaaaaaaaaaa

You are only mocking yourself, since you are the one who tried to discount what I was saying because I dont work for the CDC.

here was the memo at work..
"""""""""Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its infection control guidance regarding COVID-19. Based upon this guidance, XXX is making an important change to its policy regarding the requirements for wearing a face mask.

all team members, when they are in patient care areas or in other areas where there is potential contact with patients, must wear a surgical mask.

This sets a new minimum standard for mask wearing among XXX hospital team members working in these areas.

This change is being made because CDC has determined that cloth face masks are not considered Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) because their capability to protect healthcare personnel is unknown."""" (it goes on and on but i will stop it right there) i also know first hand nursing homes also received new policies regarding cloth masks and didnt allow them. So sure maybe we are all wrong and you are right.. but In my medical opinion cloth masks are a joke!

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

however it does say reviews march 17 which is more than 1 month later then the memo. (but everywhere around here has discontinued use of cloth face masks in may) strange they changed it march 17 i wonder if they consulted you before they did.

The cloth masks were never recommended over surgical masks for anyone working with patients. Never. These are your employer's recommendations BASED on availability and what the CDC was saying. The CDC never considered cloth masks to be medical grade PPE. Get a clue. Cloth masks were always a stop-gap measure for everyone ELSE. You clearly took the wrong message from this and RAN with it and now you are unwilling to admit you were wrong because you structured your elaborate arguments and criticisms of others around the base assumptions drawn from your misunderstanding.

 

[killster1]

Or, more likely, they said the CDC updated it in exactly the way I said they updated it and you are the one who is off base. Pretty clear that's the case.


You are only mocking yourself, since you are the one who tried to discount what I was saying because I dont work for the CDC.


The cloth masks were never recommended over surgical masks for anyone working with patients. Never. These are your employer's recommendations BASED on availability and what the CDC was saying. The CDC never considered cloth masks to be medical grade PPE. Get a clue. Cloth masks were always a stop-gap measure for everyone ELSE. You clearly took the wrong message from this and RAN with it and now you are unwilling to admit you were wrong because you structured your elaborate arguments and criticisms of others around the base assumptions drawn from your misunderstanding.

the policies at hospitals and nursing homes CHANGED after the cdc changed the guidelines, i posted the memo, i can post other memos from other nursing homes as well. sorry if you cant admit you might be wrong and there might be more to this then you know.

i see it says march 17 on the last time it was changed, but that means they did change it, and im sure they will change it again as the cdc seems to have no idea what they are doing most of the time. so tell your good friend at the cdc they suck. i have loads of brand new 3m n95 for sale if anyone wants one. 2$+ship small or regular. cloth masks or home made masks are not anywhere near as good as any other mask end of story. so funny!

 

[Ichinisan]

...

In Stockholm, for example, where they've been constantly expressing the hope that the absence of a lockdown means they are reaching 'herd immunity' (i.e. 60% infection rate) that random testing shows the infection rate is more like 2.5%.

Random Stockholm testing show 2.5% infected, despite hundred...

BAD news for the idea that the virus has already sweeped through our populations and created widespread immunity (if that is possible.) Random testing...

www.peakprosperity.com

...

Huh? Premise is wrong. "Current infections" doesn't tell you how many have already recovered and developed immunity. How does anyone not understand that?