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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Kaido said:
One thing I'm kinda shocked at is how fragile the world economy is. In the U.S., we're waking up to the fact of just how dependent we are on China. The news is even saying that one dude (Saudi crown prince) could tank the world economy if his choices turn out bad:

www.cnn.com

Saudi crown prince gambles on an oil price war. His latest brash move could sink the world economy

Inside oil-rich Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman is both feared and loved. in the past few days, the world has witnessed what his subjects have come to know.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...
I'm currently working on some parts for machines that will be sent to Russia for their drilling operations. Hopefully the prince doesn't fuck things up too bad.
It's a weird balance though... higher oil prices means our customer orders more parts. Lower oil prices means it easier on the wallet but less work.
 
This is my game plan until things get better - I am cutting back on eating out at restaurants, maybe completely, and no movies or concerts or anyplace with a lot of people. I will go to grocery stores or shopping only for necessities and at the last hour before they close so the crowd would be minimal and get out as fast as possible. No linger around and see anything I like on sale.

Keep as far distance from others as much as possible and interact with other as little as possible. And of course, clean my hands often, no touching my face, and practice common sense hygienic steps at work and everywhere else.

In other news, ABC Nightline is running a special story about this. Italy has over 1,000 deaths (for now). Largest in Europe. This is scary indeed.
 
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The supermarkets were a train wreck today.
People were massing at them like crazy.

Couldn't even find parking at some hours, lines were at least 15-20min wait long.
You could also see the clerks wishing to die in how busy they were.

Felt like the precursor of armageddon.
 
aigomorla said:
The supermarkets were a train wreck today.
People were massing at them like crazy.

Couldn't even find parking at some hours, lines were at least 15-20min wait long.
You could also see the clerks wishing to die in how busy they were.

Felt like the precursor of armageddon.
Click to expand...

The gatherings of masses at supermarkets will in no way promote the spread of COVID 19

🙄
 
I just went to Walmart. There were a couple of single customers like myself, and one family. Some lady brought her clutch of toddlers to buy groceries at 1AM.
I'm guessing theres no school tomorrow.
 
DrMrLordX said:
That's actually not as many cases as I thought? How many ICU beds do they have in Lombardy? That death rate is pretty bad though.
Click to expand...

Please note, and share the info as necessary. You can find a variety of sources from within the worst hit regions such as northern Italy and within Iran that confirm a severe undercounting of cases for four primary reasons :

1- Incompetence/Lack of understanding. This is usually with countries too arrogant to believe they are at risk, and don't begin any response until it becomes obvious that they're seeing a hit. High chance to move through the stages towards group 4.

2- Political repression and dictatorship. These regimes do not want to appear weak to their citizens, and often have a total anathema to free exchange of ideas and information, or science and fact based reasoning in general. North Korea, Iran, etc, as well as China for similar reasons. This category can jump rapidly to group 4.

3- Western Democracy political and economic policy confusion and delay. This is US/UK in a nutshell. You have a wide variety of people pulling in different directions, and trying to mount an initial response to get accurate testing kits and policies together is like herding cats. Once all the engines are firing and legislative and executive bickering are replaced with a more unified or enforced single purpose, this should ease and become more accurate, but the delays may lead us to join group 4 :

4- The medical services personnel dealing with incoming severe cases simply become too overwhelmed with using every spare minute of time towards triage and treatment. Critical cases are self evident, and bothering with testing if they even have spare testing materials on hand becomes simply not worth even the smallest delay. This is the nightmare scenario. The best available medical staff is assaulted with far more than they can fully cover, and their levels of infection and exhaustion rapidly rise. This further deflates any accurate confirmed counting, as well as decimates the quality of care provided as human resources and supplies dissipate. This is the case with Iran and Italy now. It was the case in Wuhan, and that was only patched over somewhat by the biggest medical emergency response in world history, where masses of workers of all types were rushed in on military terms from across the continent.
 
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Reactions: pmv
Two questions about this situation have now formed in my mind.

It seems clear that the authorities have decided on a plan for this (in most countries, maybe not the US where they don't seem to be quite sure what they are doing, under the ditherer-in-chief).

That plan amounts to 'the way out is through'. The idea being that squashing the epidemic completely is impossible, and that all that can be done is to ride out the storm by letting the virus run through the population, while doing what we can to 'flatten the curve' and to avoid too many people needing intensive medical care at the same time. And to accept that a lot of older and chronically-ill people will be lost along the way, but hopefully not nearly as many as would if the virus were allowed to spread without any efforts at damping. (Though it's not clear that Italy hasn't already lost control to the point where the plan is already failing for them.)

My questions are...

(a) when was this plan decided upon, because the authorities have been very lackadaisical about explicitly saying that is what they are going to do. Only now are they admitting that's the plan (e.g. with Boris Johnson openly saying that 'many families are going to lose loved ones'). But it seems as if that has actually been the idea for some time, hence the relunctance to do anything to try and suppress the international cross-border spread of the virus.

and
(b) are they quite sure that those who have had the virus and survived and recovered, will in fact be immune to getting it again? If people don't acquire immunity, or if the immunity doesn't last very long, this plan isn't going to work, surely?
 
brainhulk said:
The gatherings of masses at supermarkets will in no way promote the spread of COVID 19

🙄
Click to expand...

Herd mentality. Happens in the beginning. Just wondering if this is prolonged. What will 3 months look like? 6 months? This is some scary shit for most people.
 
pmv said:
Two questions about this situation have now formed in my mind.

It seems clear that the authorities have decided on a plan for this (in most countries, maybe not the US where they don't seem to be quite sure what they are doing, under the ditherer-in-chief).

That plan amounts to 'the way out is through'. The idea being that squashing the epidemic completely is impossible, and that all that can be done is to ride out the storm by letting the virus run through the population, while doing what we can to 'flatten the curve' and to avoid too many people needing intensive medical care at the same time. And to accept that a lot of older and chronically-ill people will be lost along the way, but hopefully not nearly as many as would if the virus were allowed to spread without any efforts at damping. (Though it's not clear that Italy hasn't already lost control to the point where the plan is already failing for them.)

My questions are...

(a) when was this plan decided upon, because the authorities have been very lackadaisical about explicitly saying that is what they are going to do. Only now are they admitting that's the plan (e.g. with Boris Johnson openly saying that 'many families are going to lose loved ones'). But it seems as if that has actually been the idea for some time, hence the relunctance to do anything to try and suppress the international cross-border spread of the virus.

and
(b) are they quite sure that those who have had the virus and survived and recovered, will in fact be immune to getting it again? If people don't acquire immunity, or if the immunity doesn't last very long, this plan isn't going to work, surely?
Click to expand...

I'm concerned about point B, as I don't see people talk about immunity after recovering. China seems to be doing ok for now, I guess we can only wait. If they get a second wave, then you know shit is going to get real serious.
 
Mai72 said:
Micheael explains that this virus isn't just an old person disease. Italy is seeing many many many 40 somethings die from this virus
Click to expand...

Wonder why? Does Italy have a lot of smokers in that age range?

zinfamous said:
eh, the point is how do you sustain people in the industries that won't actually have jobs, very suddenly.
Click to expand...

If companies are getting SBA handouts and reductions in payroll tax, you can afford temporary paid layoffs of maybe 2-3 weeks. Or at least that's the theory.
 
pmv said:
(a) when was this plan decided upon, because the authorities have been very lackadaisical about explicitly saying that is what they are going to do. Only now are they admitting that's the plan (e.g. with Boris Johnson openly saying that 'many families are going to lose loved ones'). But it seems as if that has actually been the idea for some time, hence the relunctance to do anything to try and suppress the international cross-border spread of the virus.
Click to expand...
Sometime between Cuomo's lockdown of New Rochelle, and yesterday, for us at least. Probably a ways back for the US, when it was obvious it was in like 50% of the states from community spread.
 
ponyo said:
I've made the decision to start wearing the N95 mask when I'm outside in public around people. And I'm only around people when I go to the grocery stores now so I will be wearing mask there. I don't care if people look at me funny. They can think that I'm weird or that I must have the virus. But I bought the mask in preparation for this reason, and I think it's now time.

I think masks are very important in order to defeat the spread of the coronavirus. I think it's essential tool to fight this. China and South Korea are the only two countries that defeated this deadly virus and in both countries, the public all wore masks religiously. I think the government in the US and around the world are making a big mistake not encouraging everyone to wear masks.

I'm also cutting out all restaurant dining. So no fast food or restaurant food until this virus dies down. Everything will be cooked at home.
Click to expand...

I'm doing the same.. yesterday I did have some drive thru food . Luckily I did not have to try and find @ stores N95 masks because I had a bunch at my workplace. As of now I dont anticipate need to go for groceries for several weeks ( hopefully I didnt forget anything) cupboards freezer and fridge jam packed. Hopefully the electricity stays on.. Going to be a stay home Netflix weekend for me
 
DrMrLordX said:
Wonder why? Does Italy have a lot of smokers in that age range?



If companies are getting SBA handouts and reductions in payroll tax, you can afford temporary paid layoffs of maybe 2-3 weeks. Or at least that's the theory.
Click to expand...

Good point. Italy does have a lot of under 40 smokers and many are men. That could be the cause of high mortality.
 
Kaido said:
techstartups.com

MIT biologist says fear mongering on coronavirus will go down as biggest fraud to manipulate economies - Tech Startups

April 5 Update: MIT Biologist Dr. Shiva now doubles down his attack on “Deep State and FakeScience” slamming Big Pharma, CDC, WHO, China and asking U.S. President to fire Dr. Fauci. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global epidemic. The virus, which originated...
techstartups.com techstartups.com
Click to expand...

It's possible. But, wouldn't you rather err on the side of caution then be taken by surprise? I had an argument with my father whose in his 70s. He told me not to worry because there are no confirmed cases in our area. I'm like "don't go outside!!" BTW, Michael Osterholm thinks otherwise.

 
Schools in DFW metroplex of 7 million have been given an extra week of Spring Break. Effectively shut down.

Local colleges including TCU are now only online. Campuses closed.
 
I have no expert status by which to judge, but on first read this seems to me like a pretty good take on things. Some good data comparing the trends in different countries/regions. Wish I could work out whether our (UK) government is doing it right or not - unlike Ireland and some other countries they are not shutting schools and other possible sources of viral cross-infection. Which bothers me. But Johnson does inspire some confidence that he has the intellectual and emotional capacity to understand the situation...more so than does a certain other national leader.

medium.com

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
medium.com medium.com


Kaido said:
techstartups.com

MIT biologist says fear mongering on coronavirus will go down as biggest fraud to manipulate economies - Tech Startups

April 5 Update: MIT Biologist Dr. Shiva now doubles down his attack on “Deep State and FakeScience” slamming Big Pharma, CDC, WHO, China and asking U.S. President to fire Dr. Fauci. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global epidemic. The virus, which originated...
techstartups.com techstartups.com
Click to expand...

This guy, on the other hand, does not sound credible. Also 'inventor of email'? Who puts that in their signature? Even putting 'MIT PhD' in there suggests a measure of insecurity. Who does that?

I think I've heard of this particular self-promoter before.

www.techdirt.com

Here's The Truth: Shiva Ayyadurai Didn't Invent Email

Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai’s Response to this Article and Statement on the Invention of Email So, yesterday we wrote about how Nick Denton had settled all the remaining legal disputes that Gawker ha…
www.techdirt.com www.techdirt.com
 
There seems to be two camps, the ones that say this virus is not a big deal and it's just a cold, and the ones saying we should take precautions. Considering what this virus does to your lungs I rather be on the side of taking precautions. Sounds like a horrible way to go, and if you survive I'm sure there is still lot of damage done that may be life altering.


As a side note, it looks like we have a toilet paper factory here in Canada and they have all the raw supplies needed to make more, so that's a good sign.

www.theglobeandmail.com

Plenty of toilet paper to go around, Canada’s biggest producer says

‘We have all the production, our sites are at full capacity to recover from this spike,’ said Dino Bianco, chief executive officer of Mississauga-based Kruger Products LP
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com

I still think this TP hoarding is ridiculous, but it's at a point where it's actually an issue because people who actually DO need it arn't getting any right now.
 
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