NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[TheVrolok]

Shouldn't matter if the odds are slim that these kids have coronavirus. At least a few of the sick kids should have been tested for coronavirus, and all of them should have been told to stay home for at least a week until test results come back.

Yes, it should. The odds matter an incredible amount? Test "at least a few?" That's even worse. Stop spreading incredibly misinformed recommendations. Go read the link I posted last night and educate yourself.

 

[TheVrolok]

So I posted this elsewhere but yesterday using the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard I calculated the fatality rate of resolved cases in the worst case province and the rest of China and the world.

dead/(dead + recovered) * 100

for Hubei it was 12.9% yesterday - 11.9% today

for the rest of China + the World the rate was 1.55% - today it’s 1.56%

Sources of errors. Deliberate under reporting or misreporting of deaths would increase the rate. Under reporting of asymptomatic individuals or undocumented cases would decrease the rate.

People enjoy sensationalism, no one wants to have a rational discussion about statistics. Being prepared is absolutely a must, but being irrational is dumb.

 

[eRacer]

Still, much less concerning than the 2% figure I've been hearing.

The lower the fatality rate the higher number of undiagnosed infected are running around spreading the disease.

If a country has 10 dead (like Italy or South Korea) and the virus has a fatality rate of 0.5% then one should expect 2000 people are infected in Italy (2000/0.5%). But that is somewhat of a best case scenario on the number of infected. Because if 2,000 people are infected, many of those are going to be recent infections, and they haven't had time to either recover or die from the disease. Of the original estimate of 2,000 infected, ten more could easily become severely ill and die. So if 20 people (10 dead now + 10 dead later) eventually die then the estimated number of infected now would be 4,000 in Italy or South Korea (20 dead/0.05%).

We'll see how much of a difference early detection and intervention makes. The one fairly bright spot in the death stats so far is only 4 dead out of 691 confirmed positive on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Passengers are going to tend to skew older and be at higher risk than the population in general, so if deaths remain relatively low there is some reason for optimism.

 

[Muse]

So I posted this elsewhere but yesterday using the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard I calculated the fatality rate of resolved cases in the worst case province and the rest of China and the world.

dead/(dead + recovered) * 100

for Hubei it was 12.9% yesterday - 11.9% today

for the rest of China + the World the rate was 1.55% - today it’s 1.56%

Sources of errors. Deliberate under reporting or misreporting of deaths would increase the rate. Under reporting of asymptomatic individuals or undocumented cases would decrease the rate.

That is probably very substantial. We don't know, but it appears that a lot of cases are either unreported or close to or actually asymptomatic. Spread is hard to stop because apparently people can transmit the virus before they are symptomatic at all. Part of the reason the Chinese walled off whole areas.

Given the estimated spread rate of 2.5 people spread from each contracted case and the fact that people are transmitting before the spreaders are symptomatic I don't see any way this is going to be contained short of a vaccine. Treatment options are going to be important going forward.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Good interview.

A few takeaways:

A vaccine may work, may not so much and "may not confer sustained protection."

Gottlieb thinks the morality rate will shake out much lower than what we've been hearing (e.g. 2-3%), i.e. may actually be ~.2-.5%, not all that much higher than flu at 0.1%. He said under ten kids are apparently very often virtually or actually asymptomatic, so undetected.

I sincerely hope this is true. I don't trust the absurd numbers coming out of Iran, but Italy's current death tally is pretty troubling.

 

[eRacer]

Yes, it should. The odds matter an incredible amount? Test "at least a few?" That's even worse. Stop spreading incredibly misinformed recommendations. Go read the link I posted last night and educate yourself.

Nice link to the post you want me to read.

No, the odds shouldn't matter (within reason). It shouldn't matter if the odds are only 1000:1 that they have the WuFlu. If they are infected, it is the equivalent of a biological weapon being released in NYC based on the panic that will ensue as they infect others. With a fairly high number of false negatives from the test kits, more than one sick kid should be tested to lower the odds of a single false negative letting a group of WuFlu positive kids go free.

Grannies at the airport are sent through a full image body scanner and told to remove their shoes in the 1 in a billion chance they are a terrorist look to hijack or blow up an airplane. Well, the odds of some kids getting sick in Italy with coronavirus is magnitudes higher than a granny bomber, so I don't see a problem with widespread coronavirus testing until the threat is past. If this becomes widespread enough to become endemic, the US could end up doing hundreds of thousands of tests a year, every year, anyway as part of routine screening.

 

[Captante]

no one wants to have a rational discussion

And this surprises you why?

 

[Scarpozzi]

RIP Iran. Ironic that this news conference was to meant convince the Iranian public the situation wasn't as bad as rumors suggested.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232276183305400320

Don't you mean, Iranic?

 

[ElFenix]

it's like beingggggg siiiiiiiiiiiiick at your press connnnnnnnnnnnnference

 

[echo4747]

CDC says to prepare for coronavirus spread in the US

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country anymore but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC.

CDC Says to Prepare for Coronavirus Spread in U.S. with the ‘Expectation That This Could Be Bad’

CDC Says to Prepare for Coronavirus Spread in U.S.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Muse]

Nice link to the post you want me to read.

No, the odds shouldn't matter (within reason). It shouldn't matter if the odds are only 1000:1 that they have the WuFlu. If they are infected, it is the equivalent of a biological weapon being released in NYC based on the panic that will ensue as they infect others. With a fairly high number of false negatives from the test kits, more than one sick kid should be tested to lower the odds of a single false negative letting a group of WuFlu positive kids go free.

Grannies at the airport are sent through a full image body scanner and told to remove their shoes in the 1 in a billion chance they are a terrorist look to hijack or blow up an airplane. Well, the odds of some kids getting sick in Italy with coronavirus is magnitudes higher than a granny bomber, so I don't see a problem with widespread coronavirus testing until the threat is past. If this becomes widespread enough to become endemic, the US could end up doing hundreds of thousands of tests a year, every year, anyway as part of routine screening.

You did watch the video you posted, right? Gottlieb said testing in the USA is very problematical right now because they have to be sent to the CDC, who have very limited resources for testing. We can test 50 to 100 cases a day in the USA right now "at best." Plus results take 1-2 weeks.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's alright guys. I've got this shit...

I've played and have won Pandemic multiple times.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CDC says to prepare for coronavirus spread in the US

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country anymore but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC.

CDC Says to Prepare for Coronavirus Spread in U.S. with the ‘Expectation That This Could Be Bad’

CDC Says to Prepare for Coronavirus Spread in U.S.

finance.yahoo.com

Well... that sucks...

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country anymore but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC.

At this point they are saying an outbreak is inevitable here in the states...

 

[Scarpozzi]

You did watch the video you posted, right? Gottlieb said testing in the USA is very problematical right now because they have to be sent to the CDC, who have very limited resources for testing. We can test 50 to 100 cases a day in the USA right now "at best." Plus results take 1-2 weeks.

Right. Influenza has a bunch of nice little sticks you pee on that that come back as Flu A, Flu B, Etc....well, ok...you got me, it's a swab test. Anyhoo, there's not been enough time for the medical community to come up with a rapid test, nor has there been enough time to test if such a test has false positives or false negatives....

 

[Scarpozzi]

Well... that sucks...



At this point they are saying an outbreak is inevitable here in the states...

Maybe it'll run its course in China and by the time it gets to the states, it'll be safer to be in Wuhan.

 

[CZroe]

How is your brother? Did he make it back okay?

Thanks. Ichinisan came back a week ago and seems fine but I guess we won't know if he is Georgia's "Patient Zero" for another couple weeks. I do have the sniffles but I think it's just from all the dusting and vacuuming I've been doing in my office.

...Gottlieb said testing in the USA is very problematical right now because they have to be sent to the CDC, who have very limited resources for testing. We can test 50 to 100 cases a day in the USA right now "at best."

If my brother or I start to feel anything then maybe we can just drive there: CDC is local (Atlanta). A Georgia Tech student I used to work with has been there since 2012 so I need to get his number handy.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Maybe it'll run its course in China and by the time it gets to the states, it'll be safer to be in Wuhan.

Depends how long it lives in people (and on objects)... but you could very well be right.

At this point it sounds like a fun game of "Good luck, hope your immune system doesn't suck". I don't think there is anything else we can really do - I doubt they will pump out a vaccine and mass produce/distribute in time for your average joe to get in time.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Algeria just reported its first case, which is the second for Africa.

Much of Europe refuses to close its borders. I highly suspect this is going to allow extremely rapid growth of the virus.

 

[herm0016]

HMM. should one think about a bit of stock of food and such? i'm thinking at least get a good amount of dog food in stock, that would be non-essential goods. medications for symptoms?

 

[eRacer]

Well... that sucks...

At this point they are saying an outbreak is inevitable here in the states...

Looks like preppin' is back on the menu boys!

“The spread in other countries has raised our level of concern and raised our level of expectation that we are going to have community spread here,” Messonnier said. “We’re asking folks in every sector as well as people within their families to start planning for this, because as we’ve seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it’s hit in those countries it has moved quite rapidly so we want to make sure that the American public is prepared.”

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Raise your hand if you died yet!

 

[Scarpozzi]

HMM. should one think about a bit of stock of food and such? i'm thinking at least get a good amount of dog food in stock, that would be non-essential goods. medications for symptoms?

At the very least, I would recommend getting Tylenol and Ibuprofen for treating both fever and inflammation....then just drink lots of liquids and hope your system fights it.

 

[sdifox]

At the very least, I would recommend getting Tylenol and Ibuprofen for treating both fever and inflammation....then just drink lots of liquids and hope your system fights it.

Pretty sure most north americans have stashes of those. Expired just mean less effective.

In fact, get infected early, then there is more medical resource available to save your butt.

 

[TheVrolok]

Nice link to the post you want me to read.

No, the odds shouldn't matter (within reason). It shouldn't matter if the odds are only 1000:1 that they have the WuFlu. If they are infected, it is the equivalent of a biological weapon being released in NYC based on the panic that will ensue as they infect others. With a fairly high number of false negatives from the test kits, more than one sick kid should be tested to lower the odds of a single false negative letting a group of WuFlu positive kids go free.

Grannies at the airport are sent through a full image body scanner and told to remove their shoes in the 1 in a billion chance they are a terrorist look to hijack or blow up an airplane. Well, the odds of some kids getting sick in Italy with coronavirus is magnitudes higher than a granny bomber, so I don't see a problem with widespread coronavirus testing until the threat is past. If this becomes widespread enough to become endemic, the US could end up doing hundreds of thousands of tests a year, every year, anyway as part of routine screening.

Post #1182, as I said last night.

They do matter. Period. Full stop.

Comparing it to the ridiculous TSA screening process furthers my point.

 

[eRacer]

Good news for Iran...everything to be back to normal by Saturday! (EDIT: /s)

Rouhani warns against 'bizarre comments in cyberspace'

Amid fears around Iran's handling of the coronavirus outbreak, President Hassan Rouhani has appealed for calm, saying he expects the situation to be "normal" by this Saturday.

He was addressing the first meeting of the National HQ for Combating Corona, which was broadcast live by Iran's rolling news channel IRINN.

"From Saturday onwards, all processes would be as per normal in the country," he said. "If there is any special case, which the national HQ itself declares, then it would do so."

President Rouhani then urged people to go about their business and work as usual, and warned against listening to "conspiracies and fear-mongering of our enemies", which he said were being spread in an attempt to bring Iran to a standstill.