NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[mohit9206]

Canada and US must have thousands of cases but since they refuse to test people we won't know until its tens of thousands or maybe more.

 

[TheVrolok]

Canada and US must have thousands of cases but since they refuse to test people we won't know until its tens of thousands or maybe more.

To be frank, both his post and yours are pretty idiotic. It is HIGHLY unlikely he has Covid-19 related pneumonia vs any other viral pneumonia.

Not to mention, while the quality of the chest xray he posted is shit.. He's highlighting his heart and not a pneumonia. If anything, maybe they're calling that.. probably RUL opacity? Tough to tell exactly where it is on that film.

Idiots and their FUD.

 

[Muse]

Yes, who wouldn't want pro-globalization, pro-open borders, pro-illegal alien Democrats instead of a border securing, travel banning, China skeptic, America first germophobe during this pandemic?

White House expected to ask Congress for coronavirus money this week

Well, you're germophobe hero's budget proposal carves 19% off the current allocation for the CDC. Explain that!

 

[ponyo]

Do you think he has any idea that the performance of our stock market still relies fairly heavily on what happens in other countries (at least, certainly China).

You want to bet against Trump? I personally wouldn't. I've come to accept that the market is not free. Free market died in 2008. Stock market is Trump's pride and joy. Trump will order people and do whatever it takes to prop the market. Especially if he just gave the signal to buy. The last time Trump tweeted to buy the stock market was Dec. 24, 2018. The market bottomed from correction that day and have exploded to the upside since. I'm pretty sure Trump ordered the drop of the gold spot price this afternoon.

 

[mohit9206]

To be frank, both his post and yours are pretty idiotic. It is HIGHLY unlikely he has Covid-19 related pneumonia vs any other viral pneumonia.

Not to mention, while the quality of the chest xray he posted is shit.. He's highlighting his heart and not a pneumonia. If anything, maybe they're calling that.. probably RUL opacity? Tough to tell exactly where it is on that film.

Idiots and their FUD.

Yeah but the point is that he should have been tested.

 

[TheVrolok]

Yeah but the point is that he should have been tested.

That's not at all the point.

Why should he have been tested? Because he "works with Asians?" So what? Did they travel recently? "Asians" don't spontaneously get Covid-19.

Do you know the sensitivity and specificity of the test? How about this particular patient's pretest probability? Did you know that it's very possible (and often probable) that a positive (or negative) result is falsely so when a test is used in the wrong clinical context?

Don't speak so matter of factly about things you clearly don't understand. It spreads bad information which is incredibly dangerous in times of near panic.

Obviously I don't know all the details of this case (none of us do), but it seems very likely that testing him would have been incredibly irresponsible.

I just happened to Google sensitivity and specificity of the test and while I didn't immediately find the information I did find the following site:

Bayes’ Rule, Decision Making, And Containing COVID-19 With Unreliable Diagnostic Tests

How false-negatives in diagnostic testing leads to release of infected people, and why extreme containment measures have been implemented.

towardsdatascience.com

I skimmed it, but it looks like an EXCELLENT read covering in more depth the superficial points above. Honestly, all of the points the author makes regarding testing are valid for all medical tests, it's a fantastic read for anyone who wants to better understand the mathematical approach to medical diagnostics.

 

[Muse]

Do you think he has any idea that the performance of our stock market still relies fairly heavily on what happens in other countries (at least, certainly China).

He's only concerned with what his base thinks, that's as far as his research and imagination venture. As usual, he can't and won't back up his assertions with facts.

 

[Muse]

TBH, I don't think he knows about much. But, lets be optimistic. It could always be worse.

This isn't the black plague now.

How do you know? We don't seem to know a lot about this. No, it isn't transmitted by fleas on rats. But we don't know, AFAIK, how the human body deals with this, if it builds immunity. There was a reported case a few days ago where a person who recovered caught it again. That is alarming to me. Immunity was evidently not conferred in the recovery process. I heard that a vaccine would be 18 months away, assuming it happens at all. I'm just not hearing about these things, but they are what concerns me... I'm not getting answers from the media particularly. I did hit the Wikipedia page a few days ago. That's already pretty voluminous.

 

[eRacer]

Do you think he has any idea that the performance of our stock market still relies fairly heavily on what happens in other countries (at least, certainly China).

You have no right to criticize someone downplaying the effect on the stock market as you've downplayed all sorts of negative coronavirus news and conjecture here. You claimed that you were in the healthcare industry, and as a result had clearer insights than others here. Then perhaps you should leave stock market analysis to professional investors like Warren Buffet?

Warren Buffett says ‘don’t buy or sell’ on the headlines as coronavirus sends stocks plunging

However, in our call of the day, Warren Buffett told investors not to buy or sell stocks, which he referred to as businesses, based on the day’s headlines.

“The real question is: ‘Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 or 48 hours?’” the billionaire investor said on CNBC.

“You’ll notice many of the businesses we partially own, American Express AXP, -4.97% , Coca-Cola KO, -2.46% — those are businesses and you don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines. If it gives you a chance to buy something you like and you can buy it even cheaper then it’s your good luck,” the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B, -3.33% added.

 

[TheVrolok]

You have no right to criticize someone downplaying the effect on the stock market as you've downplayed all sorts of negative coronavirus news and conjecture here. You claimed that you were in the healthcare industry, and as a result had clearer insights than others here. Then perhaps you should leave stock market analysis to professional investors like Warren Buffet?

Warren Buffett says ‘don’t buy or sell’ on the headlines as coronavirus sends stocks plunging

lol, this is going to be awkward for you.. I agree 100% with Warren Buffet and have actually gave this exact advice to a friend who called me earlier today when the Dow closed. At no point did I advocate any action based on today's market changes. My personal investments will continue unchanged, and I'm continuing to buy at my usual rate.

Even more awkward is I'm not the one downplaying the effect on the markets, I'm actually responding to Trump who IS downplaying it. Ironic, as you just tried to white knight him.

Wow, swing and a miss man.

I'm a big Warren Buffet fan, as well as Benjamin Graham, Jack Bogle, etc.

 

[eRacer]

Well, you're germophobe hero's budget proposal carves 19% off the current allocation for the CDC. Explain that!

It's the same reason you shouldn't keep paying construction companies billions of dollars to sit around and do nothing for years after the previous project was completed.

White House asking Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus

 

[Red Squirrel]

I would not worry about effects of stock market, it might be affected but once this is all over it will probably go back to normal.

 

[TheVrolok]

I would not worry about effects of stock market, it might be affected but once this is all over it will probably go back to normal.

History is certainly on your side

 

[IronWing]

It could always be worse.

How do you know?

Could be raining.

 

[Muse]

I would not worry about effects of stock market, it might be affected but once this is all over it will probably go back to normal.

Um, when will this be over? I've seen and heard no prognostications concerning that. Right now it's expanding at an alarming rate. I have heard some about rates possibly declining in China, the only really good news I've heard, but I'm unsure that it's at all accurate.

TBH, I don't remember a pandemic threat of this concern in the last 50+ years. Polio was bad because it fucked people up for life, possibly killed them. But the Salk vaccine was the magic bullet. This thing has already thoroughly eclipsed SARS, and MERS and ebola, though much more deadly, doesn't have the contagion thing going that this has.

 

[eRacer]

lol, this is going to be awkward for you.. I agree 100% with Warren Buffet and have actually gave this exact advice to a friend who called me earlier today when the Dow closed. At no point did I advocate any action based on today's market changes. My personal investments will continue unchanged, and I'm continuing to buy at my usual rate.

Even more awkward is I'm not the one downplaying the effect on the markets, I'm actually responding to Trump who IS downplaying it. Ironic, as you just tried to white knight him.

Wow, swing and a miss man.

I'm a big Warren Buffet fan, as well as Benjamin Graham, Jack Bogle, etc.

Trump optimistic about American business and long term financial growth = O.M.B.
Buffett optimistic about American business and long term financial growth = I totally agree!

Can't say I was surprised by the response.

It will be interesting to see what the market does from here. As far as investors and the American public know coronavirus outbreaks are half a world away. What happens to the market if the cases in NYC, Chicago or LA are in the hundreds or thousands? In 2009 the DJIA bottomed out below 6,500 so the floor could be quite low if the US gets hit relatively hard by the WuFlu (even if "relatively hard" still means far less deaths than the regular flu).

It will also be interesting to see the long term effect on American manufacturing. Will corporations be less eager in the future to put almost all of their eggs in the China (and Taiwan) basket? As a matter of national security and stability should the manufacturing of certain products be partially or fully moved from China to the US or at least to US allies? Should be an interesting few years ahead.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Um, when will this be over? I've seen and heard no prognostications concerning that. Right now it's expanding at an alarming rate. I have heard some about rates possibly declining in China, the only really good news I've heard, but I'm unsure that it's at all accurate.

It's like anything else. I'm sure it will eventually get under control, like Sars, Ebola etc. Right now it's pretty bad though, so it could be a while. There's always the chance this turns so serious to the point of collapsing the entire world society, but I don't think that will happen.

 

[Muse]

It's the same reason you shouldn't keep paying construction companies billions of dollars to sit around and do nothing for years after the previous project was completed.

White House asking Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus

TBH I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. We should be taking this on as an existential crisis, same as the global warming crisis. This is serious shit. Fuck the gambling resorts, Trump doesn't get it.

 

[Muse]

Could be raining.

It's always raining somewhere, so what? There hasn't been a drop of rain here since Jan. 28. If we don't get any by Saturday, it will be the first 100% dry February since 1864. Can you say climate crisis?

 

[TheVrolok]

Trump optimistic about American business and long term financial growth = O.M.B.
Buffett optimistic about American business and long term financial growth = I totally agree!

Can't say I was surprised by the response.

It will be interesting to see what the market does from here. As far as investors and the American public know coronavirus outbreaks are half a world away. What happens to the market if the cases in NYC, Chicago or LA are in the hundreds or thousands? In 2009 the DJIA bottomed out below 6,500 so the floor could be quite low if the US gets relatively hard by the WuFlu.

It will also be interesting to see the long term effect on American manufacturing. Will corporations be less eager in the future to put almost all of their eggs in the China (and Taiwan) basket? As a matter of national security and stability should the manufacturing of certain products be partially or fully moved from China to the US or at least to US allies? Should be an interesting few years ahead.

Uncertainty is traditionally bad for markets, and I think we can agree there's plenty of uncertainty here. How bad? For how long? Don't know, but I suspect "this too shall pass." I'm fortunate enough to be young so I can tolerate this a bit easier.

I suspect that little to nothing will change long term. What is the likelihood that this level of disruption occurs? What is the loss when it does? Does that overcome the more expensive prospect of doing business domestically?

Now you're talking about government intervention in industry? (moving manufacturing domestically) That doesn't seem very in keeping with the "conservative" party. We utilize tariffs to pick winners and losses in the name of national security, don't we?

Again, I suspect, that long term we'll see little to no changes and this will be a footnote in history.

 

[eRacer]

TBH I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. We should be taking this on as an existential crisis, same as the global warming crisis. This is serious shit. Fuck the gambling resorts, Trump doesn't get it.

Maybe it will be enough, maybe it won't. If the US burns through all $2.5 billion, Congress can simply spend more if asked. Congress is quite adept at spending billions.

If everyone were to act rationally this would in no way be an existential threat. Even in a world full of irrational people this is extremely unlikely to lead to an existential threat...with the few very unlikely exceptions being some unforeseen domino effect leading to nuclear war, or some extremely improbable mutation of the virus.

 

[eRacer]

Uncertainty is traditionally bad for markets, and I think we can agree there's plenty of uncertainty here. How bad? For how long? Don't know, but I suspect "this too shall pass." I'm fortunate enough to be young so I can tolerate this a bit easier.

I suspect that little to nothing will change long term. What is the likelihood that this level of disruption occurs? What is the loss when it does? Does that overcome the more expensive prospect of doing business domestically?

Now you're talking about government intervention in industry? (moving manufacturing domestically) That doesn't seem very in keeping with the "conservative" party. We utilize tariffs to pick winners and losses in the name of national security, don't we?

Again, I suspect, that long term we'll see little to no changes and this will be a footnote in history.

Regardless of what party is in power in the US these days, government intervention is the norm rather than the exception in this supposed "free market" economy. There are plenty of legal devices besides tariffs to encourage key businesses to return at least some production to the US, or prevent key manufacturing already in the US from relocating to China.

Risk vs reward is always being assessed in the business world. If one believes China's latest coronavirus numbers, everything will be "back to normal" in China very soon as far as production is concerned. In that case little may change. However, if this situation were to drag on for months in China, or periodically erupt and dissipate over a period of years, or China is found to have been seriously dishonest in their reported coronavirus deaths, then certain businesses may find manufacturing in China too risky.

From an "I like cheap PC parts" standpoint, I hope we don't see a scenario where multiple chip mega-fabs in Taiwan and/or South Korea lose weeks or months worth of production due to coronavirus outbreaks. Prices for memory, SSDs, GPUs and/or CPUs could skyrocket. At least the infrastructure shouldn't be damaged as would be in a Taiwanese earthquake.

 

[IronWing]

It's always raining somewhere, so what? There hasn't been a drop of rain here since Jan. 28. If we don't get any by Saturday, it will be the first 100% dry February since 1864. Can you say climate crisis?

 

[Roger Wilco]

In the last 24 hours:

- 279 new confirmed cases outside of China—an increase of 12.61%.


- 11 new deaths outside of China—an increase of 40.74%. This is the highest number in a single day.


- South Korea, Italy, and Iran continue to experience extreme outbreaks.
- Japan and Hong Kong are growing steadily.
- New cases throughout the Middle East and Europe emerge via the new outbreaks in Italy and Iran.

 

[eRacer]

Anyone here want to work as a nurse in Wuhan? Apparently a country of nearly 1.4 billion people has completely run out of available nurses after treating a mere 64,786 patients in Hubei province/Wuhan. Sounds like an adventure of a lifetime!

(DISCLAIMER: actually it is hell on Earth)

Chinese medical staff request international medical assistance in fighting against COVID-19

The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined. There is a severe shortage of protective equipment, such as N95 respirators, face shields, goggles, gowns, and gloves. The goggles are made of plastic that must be repeatedly cleaned and sterilised in the ward, making them difficult to see through. Due to the need for frequent hand washing, several of our colleagues' hands are covered in painful rashes. As a result of wearing an N95 respirator for extended periods of time and layers of protective equipment, some nurses now have pressure ulcers on their ears and forehead. When wearing a mask to speak with patients, our voices are muted, so we have to speak very loudly. Wearing four layers of gloves is abnormally clumsy and does not work—we can't even open the packaging bags for medical devices, so giving patients injections is a huge challenge. In order to save energy and the time it takes to put on and take off protective clothing, we avoid eating and drinking for 2 hours before entering the isolation ward. Often, nurses' mouths are covered in blisters. Some nurses have fainted due to hypoglycaemia and hypoxia.

In addition to the physical exhaustion, we are also suffering psychologically. While we are professional nurses, we are also human. Like everyone else, we feel helplessness, anxiety, and fear. Experienced nurses occasionally find the time to comfort colleagues and try to relieve our anxiety. But even experienced nurses may also cry, possibly because we do not know how long we need to stay here and we are the highest-risk group for COVID-19 infection. So far 1716 Chinese staff have been infected with COVID-19 and nine of them have unfortunately passed away. Due to an extreme shortage of health-care professionals in Wuhan, 14 000 nurses from across China have voluntarily come to Wuhan to support local medical health-care professionals. But we need much more help. We are asking nurses and medical staff from countries around the world to come to China now, to help us in this battle.