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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
102,061
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People who are able to respond to the changing climate will survive. The people who adapt. Everyone else will have a very difficult time.

View attachment 27396
in our world today...that means the billionaires that have already bought up all the land in Siberia, Canada, New Zealand, and built their Fallout bunkers all over the world, all the while spending the rest of their money perpetuating their fortunes and publicly denying the future realities that they are very specifically investing in.

basically: not you or the rest of us, and it never will be.

so, eat it up. unless you actually give a shit and are willing to do anything about it.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
26,806
2,075
126
I wouldn't count on a vaccine this year. Maybe some time in 2021. Will it be effective? Who knows. I think people are getting their hopes up, and for many they are going to be greatly disappointed. This will more than likely last for a very long time.

Osterholm is 67. He said he doesn't expect the virus to not be a big issue during his lifetime. That doesn't mean that vaccines won't be extremely effective. What it means is that you aren't going to eradicate this virus with vaccines, at least we don't have any evidence that we can do that. I suppose it's conceivable that a vaccine could be developed that confers lifelong immunity.

8 billion people is a lot to vaccinate.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
102,061
16,301
136
The problem is kids are virtually 99.99% unaffected by this. The trouble of course is spreading it to the family they come home to and the teachers.

I don't know how best to proceed, but this is going to suck for everyone... But especially economically because the majority of Americans essentially use school as a daycare.
Wrong.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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Kids tend to show symptoms less often but they still spread the virus "as easily" as any adult. Because it's "less obvious" when kids are infected, it's actually quite possible kids spread the virus to a lot more people than adults do, just like any asymptomatic infected, really.
Hence why I mentioned that?
 
Nov 8, 2012
16,909
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are you still alive?

lol--was mostly away last week.




why are people drinking hand sanitizer? they should't do it if it's IPA or EtOH or MeOH, regardless. It's why denatured alcohol exists.

did your bottle smell sweetish? Is that why people are drinking their hand sanitizer...because it smells like the things they love and always eat that make them fat and obese? .....fucking Americans.

anyway, if it smells "sweet," it could be methanol or ethanol (I think methanol is sweeter in scent). IPA is way harsh.

You want IPA, though. EtOH is fine, but it comes with those issues of "maybe being methanol." ...because China or whatever
OMG I love IPA brews. Amazing stuff! Hops are awesome!
 
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local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,616
359
136
I have seen no professional opinion or hope of any real immunity until vaccines are part of the equation. @CZroe and @K1052 can chime in, but I doubt that even 20% having contracted the virus will confer meaningful resistance to the pandemic. Plus there's a fair amount of evidence that having been exposed and fighting it off does not confer lasting immunity.
Depending on what 20% of the population gets it then it can have a significant impact. The majority of spread comes from relatively few people. Public facing, highly interactive people. Take those out of the equation and the spread can slow quite a bit especially given the generally lower crowds and large number of people staying home. For an example look at Sweden, they have not significantly changed their response since this began but their cases are dropping significantly now.

Note: It is known that the second wave in Sweden correlates to a large testing increase not an actual new wave. The cases graph should roughly follow the deaths graph which would show a much bigger fall off from the high point.

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I expect given enough time the US will follow a similar curve as the susceptible population goes through this, it is a painful way to go and will in the end result in a never ending slow burn. Reopening in full would of course expose new people to the virus and cause another peak until that group also hits peak and starts to go down. My biggest fear is that we find this thing has long term lasting impact that will cause problems for people for the rest of their lives but no one knows that for sure until millions have been infected because it is "not that bad" and eventually the curve is so flat no one cares anymore.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,094
7,146
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Yea most of the thinking seems to be that many of the people likely to get it and spread it already have in the case of say NYC where antibody positivity is detected at 20-25%. This could be significantly reducing the ongoing rate of transmission. You don't want to do this intentionally because it kills so many people as we saw.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
23,750
672
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20% immunity will measurably slow the spread but won't stop it. Fewer people to infect = lower R0.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
26,806
2,075
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My biggest fear is that we find this thing has long term lasting impact that will cause problems for people for the rest of their lives but no one knows that for sure until millions have been infected because it is "not that bad" and eventually the curve is so flat no one cares anymore.
I have been about as close to super careful as you can get. Since SIP was declared here Mar. 16. On Mar. 15 they asked all at risk people to SIP, then the general populace one day later! A month or two later confirmed cases per day were averaging around 50 in my county of 1.7 million people (Alameda, CA, the other side of the bay from S.F.). August 2, 2020 confirmed cases for Alameda County were 322! I think the positivity rate is around 7.5% right now. The figures have improved maybe as much as 20% locally in the last 3 days or so but I am personally not about to stop caring! I doubt that I will at all before getting vaccinated.
 
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pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
6,862
1,980
136
Kids get it.
Kids spread it.
Kids get sick and die as well.
They've had the benefit of being couped up for months limiting their exposure.

We got our game plan from our school district based on our current covid stats. Hybrid approach with a lot of moving pieces.
Colleges have all sorts of rules in place.
Everyone, from parents to teachers to hospital workers to anyone who actually deals with kids on a regular basis expect a huge spike mid September and things are going to shut down again.

Time to start stocking up the pantry again
 

Grey_Beard

Senior member
Sep 23, 2014
749
780
136
Eli Lilly has a interesting interim treatment. It shows some good promise.


 
Nov 8, 2012
16,909
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You would like IPAs. Fucking derelict.
I actually don't :p

I'm a Stout/Porter/Barley Wine/Old Ale/Belgian Brews type of person.


I honestly hate the fad of "How many more hops can we fit in here?" game of IPAs. Though they are starting to make some decent tasting ones with the whole Hazy IPAs taking off recently.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
26,806
2,075
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Time to start stocking up the pantry again
I wish I'd done more of that in early March. I am always well stocked and got more so but didn't envision what's happened with the pandemic continuing to ramp up exponentially around here. 6x as many CC/day now as April/May. I was all ready to hit Costco finally a couple weeks ago and pulled the plug because of news that it's just getting worse every day here. The county the store is in was declared on the state watch list the day before. I just figured why!? Why go? I have a neighbor shopping for me, she doesn't go to Costco, so it costs more, but I have the money so, why go to Costco myself? I haven't been inside a store since middle March.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
15,349
859
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THAT is a badass video. Watch that motherfucker. That's some solid shit.

Far too honest for most people I'm afraid. :confused:

I can recall as a child being absolutely dumbfounded when people got mad because you said something that made them think.

Guess what? Shame is an appropriate reaction and if you are a fat person you SHOULD be ashamed unless you have some disease which makes it literally impossible to lose weight.

In the early days of human existance anyone in bad physical shape was the first one the lions ate. This quickly took care of the problem.

In the early days of human civilization food was often scarce unless you were very rich/royalty so getting fat simply wasn't an option.

These days thanks to modern medicine and McDonald's every 20 feet just about everyone "survives" including those that nature/evolution would have removed from the gene-pool prior to reproduction. Politically correct to say or not this can only result in a weaker version of humanity.

The pandemic is terrible no question but its a veritable picnic compared to what could potentially happen disaster-wise. Harsh but likely safe to say that if things get REALLY rough half of the US population wouldn't last 6 months.
 
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Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,257
2,485
136
Shame is an appropriate reaction and if you are a fat person you SHOULD be ashamed unless you have some disease which makes it literally impossible to lose weight.
Shame, other than for purposes of very short term regret, is a negative emotion/mindset that is likely to be more detrimental to a person's long term ability to lose and maintain a healthy weight.
Long term shame can lead to depression, which, surprise, has depression as a comorbidity. Wonderful little self destructive circle that pair is.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
15,349
859
126
Shame, other than for purposes of very short term regret, is a negative emotion/mindset that is likely to be more detrimental to a person's long term ability to lose and maintain a healthy weight.
Long term shame can lead to depression, which, surprise, has depression as a comorbidity. Wonderful little self destructive circle that pair is.

True so maybe not the right word, however overcoming shame can be a real motivating factor too. An individual feeling shame can either give in to it or overcome it.

Further an individual feeling shame is very different then the act of "shaming" another person for being overweight which is never okay. (with the possible exception of airline seating... if you TAKE UP two seats buy TWO tickets lol!)
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
26,806
2,075
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"Shame is Pride's cloak." - William Blake

Interesting thoughts on fitness. Greece is thought to be the "cradle of western civilization." I was reading I believe Edith Hamilton and the point was made that because of the rough terrain it was difficult to survive on the Greek Islands. You had to be something of a human billy goat, strong, fit, able. You could not be sedentary. I'm sure that obesity was a rarity, probably all but nonexistent there.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
34,094
7,146
136
Eli Lilly has a interesting interim treatment. It shows some good promise.


Yeah there are about a dozen antibody therapies in the pipeline. Most of them should work. Eli Lilly and Regeneron will probably have theirs available later this month or in early September. It is clear pretty quickly if they are helping people in hospital or not.
 

purbeast0

Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
49,765
2,744
126
I took one of those rapid test covid tests today. I got there at like 10:45am and had to fill out a form then gave it back and waited in my car for about an hour since it was crowded. Then it took about 2 minutes and I was out.

This test was different than the one I did a while back that took 3 days to get results. That one was deep in the nose for a 10 count. The one I took today was not as deep and it was in both nostrils. I'm not sure if the rapid one vs. the other one is just "different" in general.

But it was negative so that is good.

I went because I've had a low grade fever since Saturday and my wife is being induced on Thursday. And they do temperature checks and if you have a fever (not sure how high) then you can't go in. And last night we nearly went to the hospital when I had a 100.0 fever (highest I've had).

But now at least if I have some temperature when we do go if I'm not better by then, I will have proof of a negative covid test from days prior.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
26,806
2,075
126
Yeah there are about a dozen antibody therapies in the pipeline. Most of them should work. Eli Lilly and Regeneron will probably have theirs available later this month or in early September. It is clear pretty quickly if they are helping people in hospital or not.
Identifying therapies (and vaccines) is one thing, getting them produced and distributed is another. If I were in ICU today, I have no confidence Remdesivir would be available for me, or antibodies or that steroidal formulation they found effective. Maybe plasma. A ventilator, probably.
 

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