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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,597
10,579
136
Hmm... sounds like we might not need those hundreds of thousands of ventilators after all. Nice to see that all that effort wasted fighting over them was a total waste of time :(
Better to have them and not need them than to need them and not have them. Over time knowledge of what interventions work and what don't for this particular disease will build and inform future choices.
 

SKORPI0

Lifer
Jan 18, 2000
17,073
1,200
126
So what an alternative to those mechanical ventilators? :confounded:

The records support what doctors have been saying about the coronavirus: most people who become severely ill have some sort of so-called underlying condition. More than half, or 57%, had high blood pressure, 41% were obese and 34% had diabetes.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,597
10,579
136
NY State tested 3000 people for coronavirus antibodies at grocery stores across the state. More surveys are needed and the testing specificity/sensitivity provided.



2020-Apr-23.png
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
8,560
4,563
146
This means the mortality rate is dramatically less than previously stated.
And the infection rate is orders of magnitude higher. If those percentages hold worldwide, a billion people have been infected total in the last four months, that's astoundingly infectious.
 
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BarkingGhostar

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2009
9,447
2,254
136
At the end of January I proposed everyone get it. By the end of February it is over with presuming repeat infections (from mutation) do not occur.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,597
10,579
136
We need many many more antibody studies than just this one to assert the rate of infection is known. Also we need more info about the testing strategy and the test itself.

The gauge is getting turned on but we need to watch it for a while as testing progresses. On the plus side the people to test positive can be contacted as possible convalescent plasma donors.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
45,425
2,735
126
lol


I mean, I'm not an overly-social person, but I just can't imagine risking my health & the health of those around me just because I "had" to have dinner with other people:


CDC chart of how it spreads from one person (in yellow) from having dinner in a restaurant. The red circles indictates who gets it after just an hour of being in the same room.

chart.jpg
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
845
126
At the end of January I proposed everyone get it. By the end of February it is over with presuming repeat infections (from mutation) do not occur.
...and a lot more people would have died than if everyone got it over a longer period of time. Healthcare/hospital capacity, Flatten the Curve and all that.
 
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CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
845
126
lol


I mean, I'm not an overly-social person, but I just can't imagine risking my health & the health of those around me just because I "had" to have dinner with other people:


CDC chart of how it spreads from one person (in yellow) from having dinner in a restaurant. The red circles indictates who gets it after just an hour of being in the same room.

View attachment 20034
Mythbusters did this years ago:
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,201
3,201
136
So what an alternative to those mechanical ventilators? :confounded:



The records support what doctors have been saying about the coronavirus: most people who become severely ill have some sort of so-called underlying condition. More than half, or 57%, had high blood pressure, 41% were obese and 34% had diabetes.
I don't really get the point of that quoted bit. Given the following (from wiki)

According to research done by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, it is estimated that around 40% of Americans are considered obese, and 18% are considered severely obese as of 2019

So 41% of people who got severely ill with coronavirus were obese - and 40% of the US population are. So does that mean there's nothing distinctive about those who got severely ill with coronavirus? (though maybe they are using different definitions of 'obese'?)
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,201
3,201
136
This means the mortality rate is dramatically less than previously stated.

What are you saying it was 'previously stated'? I haven't seen any clear statement of the case fatality rate. I've seen multiple, conflicting guesses. To say it was 'dramatically less than previously stated' doesn't mean much, when it's never been clearly or definitively stated to be any particular figure in the first place!


Copying my own post from a p&n thread, it appears from these figures that the case fatality rate is maybe 1.1%, which is what I vaguely thought it might be from the start...but it's still a long way from definitively established (and 1.1% is still ten times higher than seasonal flu):

So the worldometer site has a note saying

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%
It seems to me that the calculation of cfr there is not right. Because that's taking total deaths to-date and the estimate of cases right now at this moment. But there's going to be a lag between infections and outcome (death or recovery), which seems to be somewhere between 2 and 4 weeks. i.e. even if the virus magically stopped spreading today, some of those currently infected would still die over the coming month.

So, surely, what you should do is divide the total deaths so far by the full infection case count of 2 weeks ago, not the number now. Or, alternatively, divide the total death figure we have 2 weeks from now by the current infection count. As the NY deaths are running at 600 a day, then the more accurate calculation of cfr would be more like 29,000/2,700,000, i.e. 1.1%

Another point is, as the mayor himself pointed out, the prevalence calculation is based on testing people who are out-and-about, who would probably be more likely to be infected than those staying indoors, thus the prevalence figure could be an over-estimate. And finally New York has a younger population than many parts of the US, so would expect to have fewer deaths. So it's possible the death rate elsewhere will be higher than 1.1%. But it's all guesswork at this point, I think.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
59,698
8,601
126
www.uovalor.com
The thing that's scary with this virus is that it does permanent lung damage, and now it looks like it also damages other organs such as kidneys and heart. It can cause blood clots and neurological issues too. So all those people who got it but don't know aren't exactly out of the woods. The damage might show up as health complications down the road. I wonder if contracting it multiple times also increase the damage done.

 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
21,197
3,034
126
So 41% of people who got severely ill with coronavirus were obese - and 40% of the US population are. So does that mean there's nothing distinctive about those who got severely ill with coronavirus? (though maybe they are using different definitions of 'obese'?)
also %63 of people over 60 have high blood pressure
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
59,698
8,601
126
www.uovalor.com
Checkmate non smokers. :p Guess I'll have to start.


Seriously though this could be interesting if it does indeed help. Via patches not smoking obviously.

"We must not forget the harmful effects of nicotine," said Jerome Salomon, France's top health official.

"Those who do not smoke should absolutely not use nicotine substitutes", which cause side effects and addiction, he warned.

Tobacco is the number one killer in France, with an estimated 75,000 deaths per year linked to smoking.
 
Dec 10, 2005
21,001
2,472
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Unfortunate but not entirely surprising. Anti virals are more helpful earlier on instead of likely advanced cases. Still have to wait to see what the moderate trial turns up.

I think I have to side with Gilead's interpretration: if the study didn't enroll enough patients, it would be severely underpowered. There would have to be a huge benefit to see anything. Currently, it would be difficult to draw many conclusions.

I'd hazard a guess that if there is a benefit, it will be somewhat small anyway. I don't think there will be a magic bullet.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,190
845
126
Checkmate non smokers. Guess I'll have to start.


Seriously though this could be interesting if it does indeed help. Via patches not smoking obviously.
"We must not forget the harmful effects of nicotine," said Jerome Salomon, France's top health official.
*facepalm*

This again?

The most harmful effect of nicotine is that it is addictive. Other than that, it's mostly just a stimulant that could be harmful if misused, but the rest of the stuff is what is generally harmful when smoking... not the nicotine. The nicotine is just what makes you keep doing it to yourself over and over.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
59,698
8,601
126
www.uovalor.com
Yeah but if it actually is proven to help and it can save lives that would still be pretty useful. It's also easier to pronounce so we don't need to listen to Trump butchering it. :p
 

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