NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[nakedfrog]

I had an optical PS/2 mouse and trackball before going USB. Also my first USB mouse was a PS/2 with the adapter in box.
I'm old. I remember when they allowed the mouse in DOS and damn near crapped my pants it was so awesome.
I remember my first wavetable card and how it almost made me cry.
Good times.

I was pretty happy when I found a mouse driver for DOS that had a very low memory profile, was quite a day when I managed to have a boot config with mouse support and 604KB of free RAM, with as much as I could loaded into EMS/XMS.

 

[CZroe]

I had an optical PS/2 mouse and trackball before going USB. Also my first USB mouse was a PS/2 with the adapter in box.
I'm old. I remember when they allowed the mouse in DOS and damn near crapped my pants it was so awesome.
I remember my first wavetable card and how it almost made me cry.
Good times.

You opened up a can of worms here.

Oldest mouse I still have is probably my boxed Commodore Amiga mouse but I have trackballs from further back, like my CX-22 and CX-53 Atari "Trakball" controllers. The only official software that can properly use the CX-22 in trackball mode (instead of emulating the joystick) is Missile Command for Atari 8-bit home computers (400/800, XL, XE, XEGS) but I have an Ultimate cartridge that lets me load a lot of games with Trakball hacks. Even with Missile Command you have to know the secret shortcut (CTRL-T, IIRC). I've done this on my Atari 800 and Atari 800XL. The CX-53 Trakball normally only works with Atari 5200 SuperSystem but I modded it with a kit that adds Amiga and CX-22 modes.

...but all that is stuff I added to the collection in the last 10 years. My first real mouse was bundled with Super NES "Mario Paint," then someone gave me an obsolete Mac Plus (black and white display) with the single-button mouse using I-don't-even-know-what interface.

First X86 PC mouse was a black 2-button PS/2 mouse in 1996 bundled with my first IBM clone PC (Acer Aspire). Next mouse was a simple 2-button Microsoft Mouse from Big Lots followed by a Microsoft Intellimouse after that. I became a huge fan of the Intellimouse Pro ergos and had several but finally moved on to the Intellimouse Explorer after wearing them all out (buttons would start registering twice for each click). Can't remember why I got the Intellimouse Optical but got the Wireless Explorer the day it launched too.

At some point I convinced my friends to get some Logitech wheel mouses so that we could properly play Quake 2 and Quake III Arena with extra buttons and a wheel for cycling weapons. I have a bunch of Logitech gaming mice now. Still a fan of the ol' G7.

Other stuff:
3DO mouse
Mega Mouse (boxed)
Another Mega Mouse that I found at a flea market with a couple rare Sharp NES TV controllers (worth hundreds)
CD-i stuff
...

 

[Kaido]

Just crossed 100,000 deaths worldwide

Coronavirus live updates: 2,000 US coronavirus deaths in a day; US has 'not reached the peak,' Dr. Birx says

Surgeon General says we must get past the next 30 days, travelers are cautioned to stay home Easter weekend, and more COVID-19 news Friday.

www.usatoday.com

 

[BudAshes]

Just crossed 100,000 deaths worldwide

Coronavirus live updates: 2,000 US coronavirus deaths in a day; US has 'not reached the peak,' Dr. Birx says

Surgeon General says we must get past the next 30 days, travelers are cautioned to stay home Easter weekend, and more COVID-19 news Friday.

www.usatoday.com

Assuming that number is accurate, which it probably isn't but that is really only about a .7 % increase in deaths assuming those people wouldn't have died otherwise. I don't really know what that means but it is pretty crazy how such a tiny increase can throw us into such chaos.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Assuming that number is accurate, which it probably isn't but that is really only about a .7 % increase in deaths assuming those people wouldn't have died otherwise. I don't really know what that means but it is pretty crazy how such a tiny increase can throw us into such chaos.

The loss of life under mitigation procedures isn't what people were going nuts over, it was the potential loss of life if no mitigations were taken. If we hadn't performed any mitigation procedures over the last four months, we'd probably be looking at closer to 100M dead right now, not 100k.

Think of it like Y2K bug, it wasn't a crisis, specifically because steps were taken to ensure it wasn't a crisis, though it was a lot of work.

 

[pmv]

If you look back in this thread I've been calculating the testing rate and pointing this out on my own while everyone else was still acting like you couldn't get tested. It isn't a Trump line... it's my own.

I've also pointed out that we still have a long way to go for a more complete picture with more testing per capita but that takes time with our large population. Even if we tested every single person all at once a month ago it would still only tell us what things were like at that moment and not what we have now... so it isn't like some race to get everyone tested at which point we can say "Yep. Tested everyone. All done. No more tests." This is why focusing on the per capita testing is an even worse metric than on daily testing.

Again, the US leads the world in daily testing and it's still ramping up. Daily testing capacity is the most important metric for up-to-date outbreak visibility.

You'll have to share the figures for 'daily tests per capita' before I'll be convinced. Per capita testing, I grant you, is not a definitive measure if it includes a lot of tests in the past when testing has since stalled. But it seems to me a reasonable guide to how extensive testing is, as I doubt any country did one big batch of testing in Feburary and then gave up bothering, never testing anyone since.

Per capita the US is way behind the likes of Iceland or Germany, say. That might conceal that US testing has ramped up hugely very recently, vs those countries testing a lot from the start. But that just means the US's record on testing is generally not that good, but it's improved. Given that, I don't see you can argue the US 'leads the world'.

Still less can you use that as an argument to ignore the level of infection in the US in the context of the comment you were replying to. Though I acknowledge that the Lebanon's per-capita testing is way below that of the US, so comparing infection rates with that particular country seems meaningless. As with crime figures, really, all these international comparisons are very questionable.


Edit - also, the UK's performance on testing is very poor. This useless government seems to take the same approach to it as governments do to increasing cycling rates - announce a hugely optimistic target, then sit back and don't do anything to achieve it, and act as if announcing a target is in itself a great achievement.

 

[thestrangebrew1]

Had an outbreak in one of the clinics next town over. 10 staff members confirmed. That's the most in one spot in my county. Scary.

 

[H T C]

Assuming that number is accurate, which it probably isn't but that is really only about a .7 % increase in deaths assuming those people wouldn't have died otherwise. I don't really know what that means but it is pretty crazy how such a tiny increase can throw us into such chaos.

That's because the problem isn't the death toll, as callous as that may sound.

Try and find out how much is the usual hospital ICU occupation pre-COVID-19, as well as the length that occupation usually lasts, and compare that to the current: that is why there's this chaos.

 

[KMFJD]

some data

 

[ultimatebob]

some data

So, it looks like we're half way through the roughest part of this. Who knows, my estimate of May 15th for the end of the school and business lockdowns might be on point afterall!

 

[mopardude87]

I would be amazed if this is over before June.

 

[manly]

You'll have to share the figures for 'daily tests per capita' before I'll be convinced. Per capita testing, I grant you, is not a definitive measure if it includes a lot of tests in the past when testing has since stalled. But it seems to me a reasonable guide to how extensive testing is, as I doubt any country did one big batch of testing in Feburary and then gave up bothering, never testing anyone since.

Per capita the US is way behind the likes of Iceland or Germany, say. That might conceal that US testing has ramped up hugely very recently, vs those countries testing a lot from the start. But that just means the US's record on testing is generally not that good, but it's improved. Given that, I don't see you can argue the US 'leads the world'.

Still less can you use that as an argument to ignore the level of infection in the US in the context of the comment you were replying to. Though I acknowledge that the Lebanon's per-capita testing is way below that of the US, so comparing infection rates with that particular country seems meaningless. As with crime figures, really, all these international comparisons are very questionable.


Edit - also, the UK's performance on testing is very poor. This useless government seems to take the same approach to it as governments do to increasing cycling rates - announce a hugely optimistic target, then sit back and don't do anything to achieve it, and act as if announcing a target is in itself a great achievement.

He's been touting U.S. testing for close to a week. Maybe you and I read fake news, but there are plenty of reports still that U.S. testing is a mixed bag. There are at least a couple reasons.

First off, obviously per capita matters. It's a logical fallacy to say "more testing per capita but that takes time with our large population" because per capita is factoring the total size of the population for the analysis.

It's been widely reported that our "national" testing rate has somewhat stalled out in recent days. After hitting 100k per day some time ago, it's slowly gone up to something like 140k. I put national in quotes because there isn't a federally directed program, but a large number of local ones. Some places like NYC metro have done tons of testing, whereas other places are still strictly limiting who can get a test. 140k sounds impressive until you compare it to the size of the entire population. I'm not keeping close tabs on daily per capita tests, so I don't know for a fact that we still lag other countries but that's fairly likely.

The other factor is the turnaround time for testing. We can be testing 140k per day, but in many places it's taking days and days for the results to come back. By that time, the patient could have been sent home to recuperate, put on a ventilator in an ICU bed, or dead.

 

[K1052]

I would be amazed if this is over before June.

I'd expect some sort of loosening in places by then but not what people think of as normal life. Even then if things get out of hand again we'll have to go back into lockdown. 50 different states figuring out their own approaches to this could make the entire idea unworkable.

 

[mopardude87]

I'd expect some sort of loosening in places by then but not what people think of as normal life.

I never expect things to go back to "normal" after this. I think people in general will be used to being distant from each other a bit longer then this lasts. It may develope something of a new complex for people.

 

[Svnla]

Not only in the US, Zoom is sucking bad oversea too -

Singapore stops teachers using Zoom app after 'very serious incidents'

Singapore has suspended the use of video-conferencing tool Zoom by teachers after "very serious incidents" in the first week of a coronavirus lockdown that has seen schools move to home-based learning.

www.reuters.com

 

[wty]

COVID-19: genetic network analysis provides ‘snapshot’ of pandemic origins

Study charts the 'incipient supernova' of SARS-CoV-2 through genetic mutations as it spread from China and Asia to Australia, Europe and North America.

www.cam.ac.uk

Coronavirus has mutated into three separate strains as it spreads across world

Dr Peter Forster, geneticist and lead author from the University of Cambridge, said: 'There are too many rapid mutations to neatly trace a Covid-19 family tree.'

metro.co.uk

 

[K1052]

Some potentially good news.

Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir shows `hopeful’ signs in small group of coronavirus patients

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...peful-signs-small-group-coronavirus-patients/


A double blind study is still needed but at least it's not bad news.

 

[CZroe]

You'll have to share the figures for 'daily tests per capita' before I'll be convinced. Per capita testing, I grant you, is not a definitive measure if it includes a lot of tests in the past when testing has since stalled. But it seems to me a reasonable guide to how extensive testing is, as I doubt any country did one big batch of testing in Feburary and then gave up bothering, never testing anyone since.

Per capita the US is way behind the likes of Iceland or Germany, say. That might conceal that US testing has ramped up hugely very recently, vs those countries testing a lot from the start. But that just means the US's record on testing is generally not that good, but it's improved. Given that, I don't see you can argue the US 'leads the world'.

Still less can you use that as an argument to ignore the level of infection in the US in the context of the comment you were replying to. Though I acknowledge that the Lebanon's per-capita testing is way below that of the US, so comparing infection rates with that particular country seems meaningless. As with crime figures, really, all these international comparisons are very questionable.


Edit - also, the UK's performance on testing is very poor. This useless government seems to take the same approach to it as governments do to increasing cycling rates - announce a hugely optimistic target, then sit back and don't do anything to achieve it, and act as if announcing a target is in itself a great achievement.

I will say it again:
The US leads the world in testing.

It is part of the reason our case numbers per capita look so bad... we have more visibility. The only country that might have more daily tests per capita is Italy and that's because they have so many more cases per capita (confirmed cases get tested and retested). If everyone in the USA ran out and got a test for no reason we would easily pass them, but this isn't a competition and pointless testing is, well, pointless... and dangerous. The future serology test is the one we need everyone to take... preferably at home.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Statistics and Research

No country knows the total number of people infected with COVID-19. All we know is the infection status of those who have been tested. All those who have a lab-confirmed infection are counted as confirmed cases.

ourworldindata.org

Cases = visibility

Note: Italy reports "tests performed" while different US states might report the number of people tested, which isn't the same due to often necessary retesting. Even so, the chart shows that we passed Italy days ago before dropping back down (again: likely due to many states not counting every test).

There would be almost no point of criticism remaining when it comes to testing in the USA if it weren't for the bad tests setting us back but it's obvious that we've been one-note about testing in the USA ever since. This went on for far too long and all I hoped to do was point out the truth so we could be a little less ignorant here than the population in general. What's with the push-back?!

The fact of the matter is that the US is not only doing more tests per day than any other country, they are doing more daily tests per capita than any other country other than the one who happens to need them the most (Italy). Obviously, Italy has a lot of help. They need it.

What remains to criticize other than the fact that *everyone* needs to do a lot more testing (including the US)? The US is obviously doing more than anyone else in that regard, so it isn't a point of specific criticism toward the US at all. Let's stop banging that drum.

He's been touting U.S. testing for close to a week. Maybe you and I read fake news, but there are plenty of reports still that U.S. testing is a mixed bag. There are at least a couple reasons.

Well? Did I not make it clear that I am directy addressing that outdated narrative?

We have a lingering effect on the totals from early missteps/setbacks in the first few weeks but there has been virtually nothing worthy of criticism relative to any other nation since then. We are working faster and with better tests even though people are still repeating the same outdated talking points from nearly a month ago. It's a perception that is no longer accurate.

First off, obviously per capita matters. It's a logical fallacy to say "more testing per capita but that takes time with our large population" because per capita is factoring the total size of the population for the analysis.

No. It takes more time because we had to catch up to the *total* per capita after the set back. We are doing more daily testing per capita than anywhere else except *maybe* Italy. He shifted to talking about daily per capita in the post I only just responded to along with yours... and it shows exactly what I thought it would show.

It's been widely reported that our "national" testing rate has somewhat stalled out in recent days. After hitting 100k per day some time ago, it's slowly gone up to something like 140k. I put national in quotes because there isn't a federally directed program, but a large number of local ones. Some places like NYC metro have done tons of testing, whereas other places are still strictly limiting who can get a test. 140k sounds impressive until you compare it to the size of the entire population. I'm not keeping close tabs on daily per capita tests, so I don't know for a fact that we still lag other countries but that's fairly likely.

That's a stall in the rate of increase... not an actual "stall" in daily testing or the ever-increasing total number tested per capita. If 140k were the maximum we could test per day then we wouldn't be stalling at all by maintaining that.

The other factor is the turnaround time for testing. We can be testing 140k per day, but in many places it's taking days and days for the results to come back. By that time, the patient could have been sent home to recuperate, put on a ventilator in an ICU bed, or dead.

This has also improved drastically. I can lie about my symptoms/contacts/risks and go get tested from a CVS Rapid Testing Center at Georgia Tech right now and have my results in 5-14 minutes... and that's not because the CDC is also in Atlanta.

 

[pmv]

That's some interesting-looking data. I'd question whether India and Senegal and Turkey are the appropriate comparators. Those are all relatively poor countries with weak health infrastructure, I wouldn't expect them to be topping the tables. I admit it's a surprise to me those are doing as well as they are.

What that graph says to me is that the US was well behind Italy and South Korea for a long time but has now got its act together. I take the point about Italy and the different form of counting but such a late start doesn't seem to be a basis for saying the US 'leads the world'.

Where's France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, the Baltic States, Singapore, by the way? [I don't mention the UK, because our government has largely been inept]

Edit - ah, some or all of those are shown but only as total tests rather than daily. Hmm. Do you have a reason for believing if the daily testing numbers were shown they will all fall below that US line?

Attempting to work that out based on the changes in culmulative test numbers for those countries, suggests most of those would be higher than the US daily testing figures...do you have reason to say otherwise?

Is there anything wrong with the following reasoning? Denmark, for example, culmulative tests per thousand went from about 4 to about 11, over the 10 days at the start of the month. So about 0.7 tests per thousand per day. Does that not imply a daily testing rate of 0.7 per thousand, i.e. consistently higher than the US figure?

Is that wrong reasoning (I accept it could be), or in saying the US 'leads the world' are you just looking at countries like Senegal?

 

[CZroe]

That's some interesting-looking data. I'd question whether India and Senegal and Turkey are the appropriate comparators. Those are all relatively poor countries with weak health infrastructure, I wouldn't expect them to be topping the tables. I admit it's a surprise to me those are doing as well as they are.

What that graph says to me is that the US was well behind Italy and South Korea for a long time but has now got its act together.

Exactly, but who ever said we had to be number 1 before we could acknowledge that we were no longer so bad at testing?

I take the point about Italy and the different form of counting but such a late start doesn't seem to be a basis for saying the US 'leads the world'.

That wasn't the basis for saying we lead the world. We lead the world because we've done more tests total, we do more tests per day, and we do more daily per capita than any place except *maybe* Italy... which has a lot of help and obviously needs it. We also have more tests completed per capita than any county with a remotely comparable population. In what remaining way is the US lagging? We can't claim to lead the world on daily testing until we have more per capita tested than Luxembourg and Iceland?

Where's France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Australia, the Baltic States, Singapore, by the way? [I don't mention the UK, because our government has largely been inept]

Edit - ah, some or all of those are shown but only as total tests rather than daily. Hmm. Do you have a reason for believing if the daily testing numbers were shown they will all fall below that US line?

The charts are generated and can be customized. I think they default to include some of those just to show the spread.

 

[pmv]

I don't accept that ignoring population numbers allows one to claim world leadership! On that basis the US is also 'leading the world' on daily deaths (and just behind Italy on total deaths, probably by only a day). Admittedly some people have said just that, but that's unfair also. For the performance of the Trump admin, what matters is per-capita. Clearly that performance on testing has improved greatly recently, I don't deny that. But I don't see that it's "world leading"

 

[manly]

LMAO talk about moving the goalposts. We're not even saying U.S. testing is still "bad" but CZRoe is saying it's currently best in the world. The onus is not on us to prove it's not the best; all we're asking is for some reliable evidence of the claim.

A chart built from incomplete world data does not meet the burden of proof, as pmv said. Once you add some other European countries to the chart (Switzerland, Norway), you'll see that the U.S. is competitive. I think we're also behind Germany in daily per capita testing, but that country can't be added to the chart. We're also behind Austria, which can be added to the chart.

IF you do this yourself, you will find the claim that the U.S. is now doing more per capita tests daily than any other country is just not true.

It's pretty hard to find some of the data, but I did locate U.S. daily testing numbers:

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

You can see that in the last 12 days, U.S. went from 100k daily to 150k daily. That's not bad, but unlikely to prove that the "US leads the world in testing." I think what most of us can agree on is that the U.S. has caught up after a very slow start, and is still improving.

Finally, I'm not sure what a personal anecdote has to do with the country's status as world leader. "If I lie about Covid-19 symptoms, I can get a test result in under an hour." Well I guess that proves the point!

 

[CZroe]

I don't accept that ignoring population numbers allows one to claim world leadership! On that basis the US is also 'leading the world' on daily deaths (and just behind Italy on total deaths, probably by only a day). Admittedly some people have said just that, but that's unfair also. For the performance of the Trump admin, what matters is per-capita.

I just showed you that it is world-leading per capita.

Even if you don't think the US would be higher than Italy on that chart if every state were reporting total tests like Italy does, do you honestly think Italy did all that testing on their own with no outside help/tests? Absolutely not. They needed more help and they got it.

The only major point of criticism remaining (the late start) would require a time machine to correct... and even that is assuming the bad initial batch of tests were avoidable and that the alternative tests offered to us were also reliable. That certainly isn't proving to be the case for tests from China that much of the rest of the world relied on. These countries are now looking for refunds.

Clearly that performance on testing has improved greatly recently, I don't deny that. But I don't see that it's "world leading"

Our exchange started when I pointed out that her perception that the US outbreak was worse than Lebanon was likely down to the US having significantly better visibility due to better testing. Do you think Lebanon has better testing and/or visibility than the US?

It seriously can't be this hard to accept that the major testing issues here other than the late start have been resolved. It's borne out in the real world and in every statistic. For some reason many will not be convinced unless they see undeniable proof of the US being the world leader even if one doesn't need to be the world leader to have resolved the issues we had.

At worst, we could argue that the US is MAYBE number 2 behind Italy but, again, this isn't a competition. I called the US the world leader in testing to distinguish it from Levanon. The distinction between whether the US is best or second-best really has no bearing on whether or not Lebanon has enough visibility (through testing) for a fair comparison. There's a very good chance that this person really would be better off returning to the US. After all: No one said she had to go to NYC or some other hard-hit area if she chose to come back.

That's another thing: Different states are like different countries, especially now that people are not traveling. The US is more comparable to all of Europe. Surely there are many places in the US that are comparably safer than Lebanon despite the scary numbers (mostly NYC and mostly due to visibility from better testing). Whether you agree that the US leads the world or not, it was a valid observation. Agree?

 

[feralkid]

LMAO talk about moving the goalposts. We're not even saying U.S. testing is still "bad" but CZRoe is saying it's currently best in the world.

He got that from Trump's daily talking points.

What a load.

 

[CZroe]

LMAO talk about moving the goalposts. We're not even saying U.S. testing is still "bad" but CZRoe is saying it's currently best in the world.

It probably is or very soon will be.

The onus is not on us to prove it's not the best; all we're asking is for some reliable evidence of the claim.

...and you got it.

The US leads in total testing.

The US leads in daily testing.

The US may already lead in daily per-capita testing.

Though we don't want everyone rushing out to get tested for no reason, we aren't even bottlenecked by test availability. If you need it, it's there.

If you want to move on to total per-capita testing it would be misleading to say that Luxembourg and Iceland are the world testing leaders. THAT would be "moving the goalposts," since it's doubtful any large country can compare to such small population countries with first-world medical infrastructures.

A chart built from incomplete world data does not meet the burden of proof, as pmv said. Once you add some other European countries to the chart (Switzerland, Norway), you'll see that the U.S. is competitive. I think we're also behind Germany in daily per capita testing, but that country can't be added to the chart. We're also behind Austria, which can be added to the chart.

You may be right. Germany was reportedly doing 50,000 tests a day for a population of 83 million. Regardless, the US has uncovered a third of the world's total confirmed cases and tested nearly five times that amount.

With the way numbers are reported differently between states and the increasing numbers of daily tests it's still fair to say that the US may be on top in daily testing per capita, but recall that I'm not the one who set up that goal post and that being first was not required to make my point about having better visibility than Lebanon and significantly better testing capacity than we are getting credit for.

IF you do this yourself, you will find the claim that the U.S. is now doing more per capita tests daily than any other country is just not true.

It's pretty hard to find some of the data, but I did locate U.S. daily testing numbers:

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

You can see that in the last 12 days, U.S. went from 100k daily to 150k daily. That's not bad, but unlikely to prove that the "US leads the world in testing." I think what most of us can agree on is that the U.S. has caught up after a very slow start, and is still improving.

Yes, I've been closely watching the increasing numbers of daily testing in the US. That's 3x Germany and still going up. Absolutely nothing left to complain about in comparison to any other country unless we have a time machine to fix the unfortunate problem with the bad tests that caused our slow start.

Finally, I'm not sure what a personal anecdote has to do with the country's status as world leader. "If I lie about Covid-19 symptoms, I can get a test result in under an hour." Well I guess that proves the point!

It means I don't have any reason to get tested but I could if I needed to, as could most Americans, and the wait for results is negligible. Maybe everyone can't get to a rapid testing clinic but they are there and the other testing times have greatly improved everywhere else. I literally drove past several different clinics with drive-up testing today and didn't see a single car lined up at any of them. If more people need testing in the USA, the capacity is there.

He got that from Trump's daily talking points.

What a load.

Except that I was saying it right here in this thread before Trump was.

Try again.